JUST IN: Democrats tonight have flipped a GOP-held state House seat in Florida. And not just any seat: This is the district that contains Mar-a-Lago. (It voted for Trump by 11% in 2024). That's right: Trump will now be represented by a Democrat, Emily Gregory, in Tallahassee.

‘Deutsche Bank forecasts US CPI to hit 3.81% in April and 4.02% in May. With the Fed funds rate at 3.64%, these rising inflation projections are expected to push the real policy rate into negative territory next month for the first time since April 2023.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/03/24/u...

Lost count of all the times people scoffed at a 1970s-style inflation “double top.” Not as much laughter now. 😞

So dark. Kushner raises billions for his fund while the family of a soldier killed in Truml’s war gets help on Go Fund Me: www.gofundme.com/f/major-alex...

The is the federal government telling news stations to provide favorable coverage of the war or their licenses will be pulled. A truly extraordinary moment. We aren't on the verge of a totalitarian takeover. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF IT. Act like it.

Unprecedented corruption. Literally asking for billions of dollars.

‘On Thursday, a gauge of expectations for inflation over the next year, known as the one-year break-even inflation rate, jumped to 4.62%. That is the highest level since June 2022, when the annual rate of the consumer-price index peaked at 9.1%.’ www.marketwatch.com/story/a-key-...

BESPOKE: "Oil is up 34.3% this week, which would be its biggest weekly change since at least 1985." #OOTT

🚨 BREAKING — Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) officially withdraws his re-election bid, missing the 5pm PT filing deadline. He is the 32nd House Republican not to seek another term. The open seat improves Democrats’ chances of flipping CA-48. The newly drawn district voted Harris +3.

@therickwilson.bsky.social @thewarningses.bsky.social @housedemocrats.bsky.social if this is not a top Democratic message then the party is politically incompetent. www.npr.org/2026/03/05/n...

‘Commodities are attempting to break above a long-term downtrend versus global equities. The relative trend versus global bonds has also been stronger over the past few months.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/03/03/i... via @thedailyshot.bsky.social

‘Stronger commodity prices are generally consistent with better performance from value stocks vs growth stocks.’ www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a... via @topdowncharts.bsky.social

About 15% of Trump's '24 voters now disapprove of his job handling — the share has crept up since last year I pooled data from our four polls over the last two months to take a closer look at them (n=435, MOE: ±5.4 pts) (All polls done before U.S. strike on Iran, w/ field dates from 1/5-2/27) 1/4

I cancelled my ChatGPT plus subscription today.

H/t @epbresearch.bsky.social

Brad Setser says that "China is not dumping US Treasuries". This isn't likely to be nearly as exciting as an article that claims that "China is dumping US Treasuries!", but the math, the data and the reasoning are much better. www.ft.com/content/9ea5...

1/4 As this WSJ article points out, countries are keeping their exports competitive in the face of US tariffs by increasingly subsidizing them, with the subsidies ultimately being paid for in the form of suppressed consumption. www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

‘The Adobe Digital Price Index found that online prices posted their largest monthly increase in a dozen years in January, driven by higher prices for electronics, computers, appliances, furniture and bedding.‘ www.wsj.com/business/pri...

1/5 The New York Fed finds that "U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025." libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-...

3/4 In other words countries whose trade surpluses are caused by manufacturing subsidies (paid for by households) force their trade partners to absorb negative spillovers in the form of trade deficits that undermine their manufacturing competitiveness.

‘Software margins had grown very wide recently and the endurance of those margins all the way to the financial horizon got priced into the stocks. That was never going to last.’ www.ft.com/content/d5fb... by @robarmstrong.bsky.social

For my fellow policy wonks a look at the supercore. This is not exactly going to provide any relief over at the Fed, Treasury or the White House that looks at this metric. It also paints a portrait around why the public is not going to find much relief in a 2.4% topline or 2.5% core print. #Econ

“.. For every $1 the U.S. collects in taxes and tariffs, it will spend $1.33 this year.” @wsj.com @scottlincicome.bsky.social www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

What's left? Private Education & Health Services (averaging ~60k/mo) accounted for virtually all private-sector job growth in 2025. Strip that out and the private sector was contracting by an average of -30k/mo.

NEW from me: Data center construction is up 300% since 2022. Imports of Taiwanese electronics are up 670%. Total US computer & software investment has shot up to $1T/yr American companies are making an unprecedentedly large gamble on the success of AI 🧵 www.apricitas.io/p/americas-1...

‘The Mag Seven topped out vs the energy sector in December of 2025, at the same level it did back in October of 2020, when #$XLE bottomed and ran 250% over the next two years.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

‘The era of tech buybacks has ended.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

GRIFFIN: “.. most CEOs that I’m friends with, they find it incredibly distasteful. .. Most CEOs just don’t want to find themselves in the business of having to, in some sense, suck up to one administration after another to succeed in running their business.” @wsj.com www.wsj.com/business/ken...

This is a big deal. Ken Griffin is an important guy to the GOP. @carlquintanilla.bsky.social share.newsbreak.com/h4p03otd?s=i16

Our founders, though deeply flawed, understood that democracy requires an informed citizenry and a government accountable to it people. That’s why the press is the only profession protected by the Constitution. It’s also why autocrats and oligarchs seek to control and destroy it.

CAPITAL ECON: ".. ISM services prices paid index jumped back up to 66.6, up 1.5-points from 65.1 in December. While still below its three-year-high of 70.0 last October, the figure does imply that PCE core services ex-housing (aka 'supercore') inflation may remain above target for some time .."

I have spoken with several senior FBI counterintelligence officers who believe that there is a reasonably strong prospect that Tulsi Gabbard is a foreign intelligence asset.

“.. The guidance comes after a 6 per cent drop in foreign visitors to the US last year ..” @financialtimes.com #$DIS www.ft.com/content/5230...

This is the kind of fight we need from opposition leaders. Thank you Chicago!

Why was Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard at the FBI’s raid of Fulton County’s main election operations center? It’s unclear. But what is clear is that her appearance signals the administration intends to undermine democratic and electoral norms ahead of this year’s midterms.

Steve Levitsky, the co-author of How Democracies Die, on the dangerous place we have reached as Trump escalates: “Orbán doesn’t arrest journalists,” he said. “And in Hungary if you walk the streets of Budapest or other Hungarian cities, you will not find heavily armed masked men abducting people."

This year, we're using every tool at our disposal to protect our democracy. We're making historic investments nationwide to ensure that everyone has the right to vote freely and safely without intimidation.

President Trump has made $4 billion by illegally trading access to the White House to get rich. He controls the Dept of Justice and the Congress so he won't be held accountable - until he doesn't control the Dept of Justice and Congress.

Fox News Poll: If the election were today 52% of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district, 46% the Republican. The 52% Democratic support is the highest recorded for either party; the previous high was 50% for the Democrats in 2017. opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260130-top...

Personally I think this is too much money to give to Donald trumps poorly trained but heavily armed Militia

Data from today shows 14 states + DC lost jobs since 2024 as the job market slows Fastest Growth: Missouri (1.7%), N Carolina (1.5%), S Carolina (1.3%), Minnesota (1.2%), Pennsylvania (1.2%) Slowest: DC (-4.1%), N Hampshire (-.8%), Maine (-.6%), Nebraska (-.6%), Nevada (-.5%)

We will not be gaslit. youtube.com/shorts/XV4cV...

From most recent NFIB survey: first back to back month w net actual price change > 30 since Spring 2023. Supports Orszag argument

"Today we remember that freedom is not free. We have to work at it, nurture it, protect it, and even sacrifice for it." - Alex Jeffrey Pretti

Van Hollen: "They really think the American people are stupid. I mean, we can all see the video. We saw the video with Renee Good. We saw the video with Alex Pretti. The real domestic terrorists are in the White House right now."

photographer is Jeff Wheeler at the Star Tribune. guy with the flag is Curtis Evans, a Marine veteran.