Week26 on the #SubPollSeries and I think we can confirm that we are looking at the Reform vote in Scotland on the way back down. Labour have taken back 2nd place in Scotland as they and the SNP have benefitted from the collapse of the Tories and fall of Reform. The media are missing this change.

Farage has largely captured the electorate receptive to right-populism, and has correctly calculated that the fertile ground for further expansion of the Reform vote is left-populism. He's seeking to bridge two populist agendas driven by the same underlying anger.

Farage claimed in his speech today that he would raise £65 *billion* by cutting climate policies, DEI schemes, and ‘Quangos’. He’s not running a serious operation and every political journalist in the country has a public duty to shout that from the rooftops

❗️Apparently, Ukraine will receive Taurus missiles. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Merz said that Germany, France, Great Britain and the United States have lifted range restrictions on military supplies to Ukraine - Kyiv can attack positions throughout Russia with long-range weapons.

rwbblog.blogspot.com/2025/05/tuni... Why the #SubPollSeries is as good as any Scotland wide poll.

❗️🇩🇪German intelligence agency classifies far-right Alternative for Germany party as extremist — Reuters Germany's domestic intelligence agency on Friday classified the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) as an extremist organization that threatens democracy,

2 X 🌹🚩👍

And there it is. Trump comes out in favor of codifying Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and blames Zelenskyy for Putin’s aggression.

One of Russia's largest arms depots has left the building. kyivinsider.com/russian-ammo...

Ive been working overnight on the paper "The relationship between birth cohort and secessionism in Scotland." www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/is-scottish-... The one that was splashed across the National overnight. There are a few problems with the analysis, which I can go into later. BUT..

Some good points in here. One thing I would add: the upper echelons of the SNP are filled with people whose political opinions were formed when they were teenagers, and have remained fixed ever since. They assume that everyone else is like that too, which is a grave error.

Well now. Having looked further at the FON sub polling for Scotland against the full #SubPollSeries I was able to update the data for the latest UK FON poll thus giving a perfect timing alignment. It shows an 11% bias for indy supporting parties. A huge exaggeration in Others and Greens.

Latest data on births in Scotland (to Feb this year) shows us continuing to decline badly. We are recording the lowest number of births in Scotland since records began and it's getting worse. But don't worry because no one wants to talk about it, so it's all good.

Latest article up on Labour Hame www.labourhame.com/is-independe...

OK you lovely people it's #SubPollSeries for Week 15. With Reform flat and the SNP and Labour both falling backwards it's the Liberal Democrats (remember them) that seem to be benefitting. This is leading to another tightening of the race for second place. Indyref voting is flat, flat, flat.

What, what, what? You want the updated #SubPollSeries for Week 13? Well look no further! The data helps show the fall from peak Reform (so far) and the SNP falling back again with the Tories, Greens and Labour benefitting.

🚨BREAKING: All elected officials found guilty in the Rassemblement National embezzlement trial, including Marine Le Pen, have been sentenced to ineligibility in political life.

❗️ The 🇪🇺EU has no plans to lift sanctions on 🇷🇺Russia or allow its reconnection to SWIFT.

Week 12 of the #SubPollSeries sees the further fall of Reform from their high point in week 10. The rarity of normal Scottish polling means that few haven noticed this peak and are instead talking about the rise of reform. However the reality is somewhat more nuanced.

Kind of shocking that most of the media in the US - and the UK - don’t seem to have spotted what is going on, or at least aren’t taking it seriously.

"Our nuclear deterrent is self-sufficient, French from start to finish. Ever since 64 it has helped keep Europe safe and peaceful. However, after Merz's historic call, I have decided to open up discussion on using it to protect our allies throughout Europe." — Macron. #StandWithUkraine #EuropeanArmy

For the umpteenth time: No way should our allies share their intelligence with us. No fucking way. Trump can’t be trusted with our allies’ intelligence. He’s not on their side. He’s on Putin’s side. www.mediaite.com/tv/cia-direc...

❗️We are currently producing about a third of the weapons we need, our goal is at least 50 percent, - 🇺🇦Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal

❗️🇫🇷French President Emmanuel Macron said he was ready to start discussing a “nuclear deterrent” for 🇪🇺Europe, speculating that France could use its arsenal of nuclear weapons to protect other European countries from 🇷🇺Russia.

Bezos has just trashed the legacy of Bob Woodward & Carl Bernstein

There you have it. The new political divide Out - Nationalisation v Privatisation In - Deporting Immigrants v Unrestricted immigration Freedom of Speech v Trans ideology - Cancel culture Drill baby drill v Working toward Net Zero

The billionaire who did the Nazi salute has now attended a German far-right rally and urged Germans to stop feeling guilty about their Nazi past, and then jetted off to Italy where he argued for racial purity. And yet somehow our newspapers are still calling him controversial rather than dangerous.

What insane times we are living in.

So how’s it going so far?

"The rise of Nazi Germany, where industrialists and financiers made a pact with the devil, is similar to what Russian oligarchs did in 2000 with Putin ... But Musk is symptomatic of something. Look at the way Zuckerberg made this perverse transformation. Businessmen are adjusting to appease Trump."

Sun: "some said he had made a stiff-armed Roman-style salute" Telegraph: "a hand gesture that some critics have likened to a fascist salute" Daily Mail: "an 'awkward hand gesture' that some have likened to a Nazi salute" Times: "commenters on social media suggested it looked like a fascist salute"

The reporting around this is no accident. In the best traditions of the right wing press they have exploited people's ignorance of things like bond markets simply to score political points against a Labour government that they don't like. They'll keep doing things like this.

Woof from Lottie our Micro Miniature Australian Labradoodle who has just had a puppy cut

❗️The 🇪🇺European Union has transferred the first tranche of €3 billion to 🇺🇦Ukraine for frozen 🇷🇺Russian assets — Prime Minister of Ukraine Shmyhal

An Aberration of Australian Labradoodles

Washington Post cartoonist Ann Telnaes quit her job Because she refused to obey in advance Pity that Jeff Bezos-owner of the paper Is too busy worrying about making another billion And doesn’t have One Whit Of the courage displayed by Ms Telnaes DON’T BEND THE KNEE

achive.is then www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

@anno1540.bsky.social @noelreports.com @wartranslated.bsky.social @warinthefuture.bsky.social @timothysnyder.bsky.social Interested in your opinion on this ... x.com/Telegraph/st...

Satire is always the first casualty of authoritarian Nationalism.

‪@antongerashchenko.bsky.social‬ Anton you need to read this . x.com/Telegraph/st...

Bored/Upset/Intrigued by Musk's, Robinson's & The Conservatives narrative on the Grooming Gangs? Here's information that they WON'T be shared to their followers, Q-Anon or Russian linked misinformation accounts… 1/8

@rspb.bsky.social Now that's what I call a charm of Goldfinches

In South Korea, 10 days after attempting a coup d'état, president Yoon Suk Yeol is impeached. In the US, 4 years after doing the same, Trump is re-elected. The president agreed to “step aside” after parliament voted to remove him, more than 200,000 showed up to make sure he didn't challenge it.

THIS is how it’s done, folks.