Week 31 of the SubPoll series. SNP flattening continues. Reform still nudging Labour into third place and LibDems pushing the Tories into 5th spot. The underlyings are also showing the Tories really on a downward spiral right now and they need a hell of a change shortly to get out of it.

Week 30 of the #SubPollSeries for Scotland. SNP and Labour stall whilst Reform pops up again to take second place. Translates into a hung Scottish Parliament again with Labour just the opposition but Reform getting very close as well. Liberals looking like the 3rd unionist party on voting terms.

You wait for one #SubPollSeries and two come along within a couple of days. #Week29 is here (there may be some further tweaks) but nothing more remarkable than before. Indyvoting is going nowhere fast. The split unionist vote is currently gifting the SNP the Parliament.

Well hello there. Looks like it's time for another #SubPollSeries, Week 28. The fall of Reform in Scotland is really quote obvious now, as we've seen from the underlying trends, Labour have cemented their position as the second party of Scotland since their by-election win.

Bonkers! We are not having enough kids!!! Stop putting up social barriers!

bsky.app/profile/neil... Just bonkers timing from Flynn.

It's all a bit Partridge: "needless to say I had the last laugh" but FINALLY we have absolute and definitive proof that the SNP have been lying to and playing vulnerable #WASPI women. Jeane Freeman, Mhairi Black, Blackford and Flynn should be ashamed. rwbblog.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-...

www.blogger.com/blog/post/ed... It's all a bit Partridge: "needless to say I had the last laugh" but FINALLY we have absolute and definitive proof that the SNP have been lying to and playing vulnerable #WASPI women. Jeane Freeman, Mhairi Black, Iain Blackford and Stephen Flynn should be ashamed.

Literal ‘Midnight sun’ in Fort William on the 3rd of July. A meteor lights up the sky at 00:50.

Week 27 of the #SubPollSeries Reform continues to fall back in Scotland with the SNP the main beneficiaries. This is in line with the latest Scotland only poll by IPSOS but they, like the media, missed their mid month bump. Labour are number two, just, in Scotland. Tories look finished.

With the IPSOS poll out today I've updated the long poll database. We're still looking at the "Yes" vote at at or just above 45%, alongside some rather shall we say interesting pro-yes weighting. In effect the Yes vote is flat as a pancake and of little interest to all but a quarter of Scots.

Week26 on the #SubPollSeries and I think we can confirm that we are looking at the Reform vote in Scotland on the way back down. Labour have taken back 2nd place in Scotland as they and the SNP have benefitted from the collapse of the Tories and fall of Reform. The media are missing this change.

The Scottish Government binned a significant pledge to get a grip on the size of the public sector workforce, said it was because of inflation (which makes absolutely no sense at all), and then just let headcount continue to balloon.🧵on this extraordinary incompetence…

Slashing immigration whilst watching your population decline due to a collapsed fertility rate. This is madness.

The first post Hamilton by-election #SubPollSeries and there are two simultaneous but separate sub-polls showing Reform collapsing in Scotland. This might be a freak like tossing 4 coins and getting 4 heads but it looks quite significant. Main beneficiary seems to be the SNP...

Hi @devolvedelections.bsky.social, can I ask about your tactical voting modifier. It says that the voter may switch to a larger party where the result is close, but what does that mean? Is it the larger party in anti/pro union voting, anti Tory voting or something else?

Well, it's taken a while to get the data for the #SubPollSeries for Week 24 but it's worth it, the first numbers since the Hamilton by-election and Reform are charging ahead. Now well ahead of Labour, the underlying data is showing an even stronger showing for them.

When you try to argue that the UK imposes spending or tax figures on the Scottish Government in GERS. It ends thus...

UK Pension Schemes Bill will consolidate Local Government Pension Scheme (England) assets in six pools that can invest in local areas infrastructure, housing and clean energy. In Scotland, assets are spread in too many funds, as we highlighted here. reidfoundation.scot/2025/01/pens...

1/ This is not just a theoretical point. In 2013, leaked cabinet papers revealed John Swinney was contemplating massive cuts to the state pension, benefits, and public sector employment in the event of Scotland voting for independence. He went ahead and campaigned for it anyway…

To understand why there is a 10%ish gap between an indyref voting and 'how would you vote. Then the answer is probably here. Half of voters effectively don't want one at all. Only 20% actually want one, the remainder want it in the long grass.

Using the great @devolvedelections.bsky.social model the #SubPollSeries for Week 23 has a bit more colour and info. I've translated the WM voting intention to a Scottish voting intention for constituency and list and come on with view of the Scottish Parliament. Still a work in progress!

I’ve been playing with the Devolved Elections tool and taking the implied Scottish Parliament election results from the #SubPollSeries. Fascinating results. SNP minority and pro-indy majority despite a collapse in the vote. Reform official opposition! devolvedelections.co.uk/about/

A 17% drop in SNP support would put the SNP on around 31% today across Scotland…. Oh hello! #SubPollSeries Does anyone else need proof that this works?

This is in line with the polls… but who the hell saw this coming!

OK you lucky people #SubPollSeries Week 23 is in now. With More In Common turning up a bit earlier than usual. This tempers off some of the earlier polling. SNP are down and Reform are the main beneficiaries and have taken over Labour as the second party. Pro-Indy voting hasn't really moved.

OK, just an early update. THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL post for #SubPollSeries Week 23, but thus far it looks like Reform are spiking. The averaging of the series understates this a little but the underlying recent data shows them and the SNP peeling away. Are both sides coalescing?????

I can't get my hands on the Norstat tables, but here's something odd from the last tables they published. Unweighted tables show the normal PanelBase enthusiasm bias that they usually get. But they weight it reasonably well on the 2014 vote. But the (last col) "Change" is the issue...

ScotGov evolving position on the child cap: 1. We can't get rid of the child cap, it's reserved. 2. We can't because we need data from WM which we havent asked for. 3. We can't get rid of it... 'at source' 4. We are going to scrap the cap. You bet I've got FOIs on it and a case at the ICO!

Wee update to #SubPollSeries for Week 22. including Opinium. This gives the nudge to Reform and puts them just ahead of Labour again. Good news is that this is very much in line with the latest Scotland only polling from Norstat over the weekend. So it's looking robust.

“It is incumbent on SNP politicians to explain what changes they would implement [under full fiscal autonomy] to put things on a stable footing. Arm-waving talk about “levers” is not good enough. Which levers? And in which direction?”

Scotland is not a colony.

When asked which questions I hadn’t answered… Answer there came back none.

This extraordinary performance by Shona Robison (watch all 7 excruciating minutes) should really be leading to calls for her to be sacked. But of course it isn’t. Her job is 100% secure because this kind of incompetence is just expected and tolerated in the Scottish Government.

"Neil, you don't debate. You lie, conflate, ignore, get obtuse, change the subject, get angry, then you get vitriolic. You're a very toxic person." Well now. And apparently I'm the angry one in this relationship!

There's a lot of people getting excited about Prof Black's lecture at the Salvo conference. 1. The 'absorption' case is anything but new and the foundation of the UK case in 2014 to say that rUK would be the continuing state. 2. The 'case' is a vague final drop in on 'resources' with no backing.

Someone’s upset

What do we want! - The #SubPollSeries for Week 21!!! When do we want it? - NOW!!!! No need to shout because here it is. At first glance this looks like its not that newsworthy and then you see that the Tories and Liberal Democrats are now neck and neck in Scotland. Is this the end for them?

Oh well. This gets you blocked. How I dare I ask.

Definitely worth noting that the Greens look like there are on a sustained rise in Scotland. They are still sitting on an average of 7% but that's after sitting at 5% for sone time.

James, I hear that you are back on the BnB ‘revelation’. But it’s no secret. I live in a house where my wife runs a BnB. I’m not involved with the business but I do meet and speak to the guests as well as offering them local advice. This isn’t work or me “running” anything. I’m just being nice.

Been behind on this due to my work on the #SubPollSeries but here is this #IndyLongPoll - this shows the average decline in the Yes vote through the second quarter of the year. That's in line with what we've been seeing for the pro-indy parties.

Apparently this needs clarity for "Iain". I don't run a BnB nor am I employed by it, I'm completely useless at any or all aspects of it. I do live here though, but I'm not sure that it should come as a surprise to anyone.

And here we go with Week 21 of the #SubPollSeries. SNP and Greens trading votes (with the Greens picking up the advanatge) but the real story is the continued collapse of the Tories which seems to be benefitting Reform but only a little. Even so Reform are now just in second place in Scotland.

OK you lucky people, here's a late #SubPollSeries for Week 20. Apologies but I had 'Dad duties' to attend to. SNP definitely up. This seems to be coming as the Tories continue to collapse and Labour seem to go nowhere. Reform are still battling to make it to number 2, but is this their limit?

Clydebank. As per the #SubPollSeries Reform are taking votes off Labour, The Tories and the SNP. SNP: 36% (-16) REF: 26% (NEW) LAB: 25% (-12) LDM: 5% (NEW) CON: 3% (-5) GRN: 3% (NEW) ALBA: 2% (NEW) FAM: 1% (-2)

James, Phil has been explaining that you are claiming he and I are the same person. We’re not, I don’t run his social media accounts. We are friends & often talk about trolls & do laugh at you. This is no different. Oh and I don’t run a BnB, I’m physically and temperamentally unfit to do so.

Not only is the #SubPollSeries well within the margin when it comes to election results it's also well within the margin for Scottish only 'full' polls of UK voting. What's not to love about another dataset to compliment our existing ones? Except my one is free and is available weekly.

rwbblog.blogspot.com/2025/05/tuni... Why the #SubPollSeries is as good as any Scotland wide poll.

www.thenational.scot/news/2514461... Yeah, I’ve been pointing this out for weeks.