Happy international actuaries day to all my actuarial friends!

The Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute (Australia) has just released our analysis of mortality for the first 11 months of 2024. Total mortality was 1% higher than predicted, almost all because Covid-19 was higher than we predicted. #thread

ABS released their provisional mortality statistics yesterday, with data to 30 November 2024. www.abs.gov.au/statistics/h...

So #covidinquiry commissioned serious research by academics at Oxford Uni into vaccine safety. Concludes “best evidence” suggests jabs saved millions of lives. And any suggestion they caused excess mortality is “low quality and has been in many cases misinterpreted.” A short 🧵

Final ONS weekly deaths data for 2024 was released this morning. 563,762 deaths registered in the year. For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend. Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.

The Centre for Population released their 2024 population statement just before Christmas. Includes projections of births, deaths and net migration that feed into Govt decision making. population.gov.au/publications...

Covid prevalence in NSW has increased this week, but indicators suggest it is still substantially less than the same time last year. With Christmas now less than a week away, I’m hopeful this means the peak of this wave will also be much lower than last year. www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...

Oh goody. The anti-vaxxers have found me here

The Australian actuaries Mortality Working Group has released excess mortality estimates for the first eight months of 2024. www.actuaries.digital/2024/12/17/m...

Outstanding article on the likelihood of bird flu becoming a pandemic. If you have a moment give it a read.

Four weeks since my post saying it looked like Covid was about to take off again in NSW. Latest NSW Health report shows little action. A very benign wave compared with this time last year.

And just like that, after an absurdly short time for consideration and debate, the Australian Senate has passed the Under16s Social Media Ban into law. No good will come of this for young people, and this will not prevent potential harms. If anything, it will increase them.

The report from the NZ Covid inquiry was (somewhat surprisingly!) released today: www.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz/reports-less... Here's some initial reaction from me (which should appear at www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz in due course):

Interesting stats!

NSW Health respiratory surveillance report. All the indicators that were on the increase last week are mostly unchanged this week. www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...

"The UK is no longer offering COVID vaccines to pregnant women – here’s why that might be a bad idea" - @theconversation.bsky.social article by @sheencr.bsky.social drawing on joint work with @chrischirp.bsky.social theconversation.com/the-uk-is-no...

There's a very interesting myth that many people seem to believe, which is that the US is doing badly on life expectancy due primarily to chronic disease. This is broadly untrue. Rather, America and most of the OECD have similar issues with diabetes, heart disease, cancer, etc.

Absolutely recommend following Ian for his generous and accessible sharing of scientific COVID knowledge! Thank him for the Swiss Cheese model that helped us understand multilevel mitigation approach to preventing transmission of airborne viruses!

My fortune cookie last night. Felt quite apt given the mass X-odus in the last week.

Wow. Kate McClymont reports Alan Jones has been arrested by police. www.smh.com.au/national/ala...

CJ as the VP in The Diplomat season 2. Excellent TV. #AlisonJanney

Social media at its best. www.ppaonline.com.au/wp-content/u...

Someone on the old hellsite says their GP said they were getting vax early Dec for 16 Dec start date. Can anyone confirm? (Public health via Chinese whispers.)

I got a bit over-excited following a few starter packs and seem to have followed squillions of Americans who are clogging my feed. Please don’t be offended if I unfollow you. Need more Aussie content.

ATAGI minutes for Oct have been released, stating “ATAGI recommends using the latest COVID-19 vaccine formulation”. This was before the Pfizer JN.1 vaccine had received TGA approval, but presumably this means it is “ATAGI approved” as soon as supply is available in Australia (expected “late 2024”)

After four weeks of not reporting, here is Victoria. Wasn’t such a big limb…

Going out on a limb here: I think we are at the start of a new Covid wave. Stats from todays NSW Health report: www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...

Fun fact: If someone quotes a post of yours in a way that is unwelcome (as is commonplace on Twitter/X) there is a tool to combat the unwanted attention. Simply click the three dot menu on the quote post & click "Detach quote". This removes your post from their quote post. Useful to know, do share!

Any other actuaries here?

As we're now in the run in to the year end, it's fair to say that 2024 death registrations will be nearly as good as the best ever year of 2019, after a run of years ranging from dreadful to mediocre. Good news, huh? 1/

MENSWEAR GUY IS HERE AND POSTING THIS IS NOT A DRILL

ABS today released life expectancy statistics for 2021-2023 (they publish three year averages). www.abs.gov.au/statistics/p...

Australian MWG analysis for year to 30 June. (Jennifer now chairs the MWG and will be posting results here.)

Quick thread on Aust deaths *from* covid for 2024 compared with 2023. Data from the latest ABS Provisional Mortality Statistics, plus small allowance for late reported deaths by moi. www.abs.gov.au/statistics/h...

The CMI has released its weekly mortality monitor. Age-standardised death rates this year have tracked the best year on record (2019) fairly closely. Data since 9 Sep may be artificially slightly lower temporarily, due to a change in death the death certification process.

UK life expectancy for 2021-2023, showing an increase. The Aust figures are due out in about two weeks but will show a decline (our 2023 mortality was worse than our 2020)

TGA addresses misinformation about Covid vaccines. I think this is a first? www.tga.gov.au/news/media-r...

Just popping a couple of things here - stuff the Australian Mortality Working Group has published since I was last active over here

Still learning this site and just saw this post, enabling me to follow a bunch of science types all at once. Very simple! Anyone have any recs for other good lists?

Pfizer’s JN.1 vax has been approved by TGA for use in Aust; now awaiting ATAGI recommendations. Novavax has not yet applied to TGA but is working towards availability in time for winter 2025. www.sbs.com.au/news/article...

Vaccine eligibility in Australia flowcharts. New versions with small corrections. Old versions now deleted. This is NOT medical advice. Full version in this post. Simplified version in next post.

Edward Nirenberg @enirenberg.bsky.social has a new article up dispelling the claims of covid vaccines being "clot shots". There's some good explanation of how/why clots typically form in common situations as well. deplatformdisease.substack.com/p/are-covid-...

Some solid evidence that XBB vaccine is in Australia! One batch of vaccine has passed batch testing, 5 more batches in progress. www.tga.gov.au/products/cov...

Have I managed to follow some weird niche birdwatchers or is this site specifically for twitchers?

We’re in a new COVID wave. What can we expect this time? theconversation.com/were-in-a-ne...

The Covid-19 mortality working group has released our analysis of excess mortality in Australia to 31 July 2023. TLDR: excess mortality is 6% (95% CI: 5-8%) for the first 7 months of 2023, +6,500 excess deaths relative to pre-pandemic expectations. www.actuaries.digital/2023/11/02/c...

Federal COVID-19 reporting is moving to a monthly reporting schedule, with today being the final weekly report. The next report is expected 10th November 2023. www.health.gov.au/topics/covid...

Yay! I just discovered @thecovidinfoguy.bsky.social is here! Denis has religiously been tweeting Aust Covid news articles and govt announcements since the dawn of time

On 20 October 2023, Australia’s Chief Medical Officer declared that COVID-19 is no longer a Communicable Disease Incident of National Significance (CDINS) following the end of winter in Australia. The Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) supports this declaration.