There’s a LOT going on as researchers and public health experts race to respond to the Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak in DRC and Uganda before it grows bigger. Some really important questions still open, but also a few answers coming into view🧪 My overview in @science.org is here (and thread coming):

Te Tiriti: What the Crown promised, and what it's now walking back. I want to start where everything starts for me: the Treaty. As a promise. A set of obligations. A framework that says: we will share this country, and in sharing it, we will protect what matters to each other.

The problem with this outbreak is that we are dealing with extremely challenging conditions on the ground, large knowledge gaps in our understanding of Bundibugyo virus and how it differs from Ebola & Sudan viruses, no vaccines, no treatments, no USAID, & no US support in any way

Under the IHR (2005), @drtedros.who.int, the Director General of WHO, having consulted the States Parties where the event is occurring, has determined that the Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus in DRC & Uganda constitutes a public health emergency of international concern bit.ly/3P4ZDac

1. #WHO has declared the #Ebola #Bundibugyo outbreak in NE DRC a public health emergency of international concern, aka a PHEIC. Yet another sign this is likely to be a very challenging outbreak. So far there've been 8 confirmed cases, 246 suspected cases & 80 suspected deaths.

I’ve been trying to understand what we know and don’t know so far about the concerning Ebola outbreak in DRC. Still lots of uncertainty at the moment but here‘s what I have been able to find out so far. Story is here (thread coming later): www.science.org/content/arti...

WHO has declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern due to the large Ebola outbreak in DRC and Uganda - the 9th PHEIC since 2005 and the 3rd due to Ebola. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

New manuscript, led by @hadley-liza.bsky.social! Model visualization is key for supporting communication between epidemiologists and policymakers. But misunderstandings still abound: so, how can we do better? www.frontiersin.org/journals/pub...

Good

Finally, some good news for once. ArXiV will no longer tolerate hallucinated content in submitted works, with real, enforceable consequences.

New paper out with @joelcmiller.bsky.social @chpoletto.bsky.social This paper's for you if you are interested in relationships between realised and intrinsic generation intervals for epidemics on networks! doi.org/10.1371/jour...

While I’m about it (it being the really obvious questions govt MPs aren’t being asked), if Luxon is really worried about “social cohesion”, which he isn’t, he should concentrate not on immigration but on inequality, which is fucking terrible for it.

How have UK social contact patterns changed post-pandemic? How assortative are they by age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status? Pleased to share our new @plosmedicine.org paper, jointly led by @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and myself, with @kevinvzandvoort.bsky.social and John Edmunds. #IDSky

It was remarkable to see this persistent myth about COVID-19 pop up again in 2026, so I wrote about it open.substack.com/pub/gidmk/p/...

1/ We are living in an era of emerging zoonotic infections. While hantavirus is the focus today, preventing epidemics requires sustained investment in the tools needed to prevent, rapidly detect & respond to biological threats, whether natural, accidental, or deliberate.

The current online dichotomy between "it's the next pandemic, panic" and "it's not, nothing to worry about" hides a wide spectrum of possible intermediate trajectories that would still present a real challenge if they played out.

New paper out today with @josephguhlin.bsky.social where we did penguin GWAS to better understand disease risk and found that these penguins represent three deep evolutionary lineages www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The important lesson to take away from this is not that we are all going to die of Hantavirus. We aren’t. It’s that the United States has zero pandemic prevention capacity at the present because of deliberate sabotage by the president and his appointed lackeys.

1. #CDC issued its 1st alert to health providers & public health depts on the cruise ship #hantavirus outbreak overnight. I got it at 12:45 am ET This should have happened days ago. CDC's communications are tightly controlled by HHS in this administration. This isn't the way CDC normally functions.

“I know that when you hear the word “outbreak” and watch a ship sail toward your shores, memories surface that none of us have fully put to rest. The pain of 2020 is still real, and I do not dismiss it for a single moment. But I need you to hear me clearly: this is not another COVID.“

“Nearly 150 people from 23 countries have been at sea for weeks, some of them grieving, all of them frightened, all of them longing for home. Tenerife has been chosen because it has the medical capacity, the infrastructure, and the humanity to help them reach safety.”

There‘s a new update from @who.int on the hantavirus outbreak: The German woman who was evacuated from the ship (and only had mild fever one day) tested negative. A man who disembarked in Tristan da Cunha on 14 April and has had symptoms since 28 April is a probable case, awaiting lab confirmation

> This kind of risk communication is really difficult - pandemics happen, and often where we aren't expecting. Public health agencies and specialists aren't hiding this when they say that's not within the reasonable worst case planning for a given outbreak, as it usually isn't.

A useful concept in outbreaks is the "reasonable worst case", which is not the worst that can happen but is significantly worse than the current trajectory. The current trajectory is that this is a very distressing situation for those involved that we can take meaningful steps to avoid in future. >

Happy 100th birthday! theconversation.com/from-fossick...

Take a concrete and looming decision: The MV Hondius left for Tenerife on Wednesday evening and should arrive this weekend. So what to do then with the people currently on board the ship? Should they be put in quarantine? Or can they just go home? On a commercial flight? How do you monitor them?

🎂Happy 100th Birthday to Sir David Attenborough 🎂 We are proud that #SirDavidAttenborough opened our Museum in 2018. Here he explains why zoology museums are “the bedrock on which zoological science depends.” 💗 University of Cambridge Museums https://ow.ly/rpqP50YREJg#SirDavidAttenborough Photo credit: CamDiary

After 15 years of reporting on infectious disease outbreaks, what continues to fascinate me about them is the challenge of making high-stakes decisions under uncertainty. The hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius is a perfect example My story in @science.org is here (and a thread to come): 🧪 #IDsky

Tell me again how navigating to a different app on the *same device* , entering a number that popped up on the *same device's screen* 10 seconds ago, and confirming I'm at a location that I'm absolutely not at adds any security whotsoever

I find this unsettling: A new study in #Lancet shows that the number of faux citations in scientific articles is on the rise, and #AI is likely to blame. @aniloza.bsky.social reports. www.statnews.com/2026/05/07/l...

Another excellent update on the Hondius hantavirus situation, highlighting some of the difficult decisions in ID outbreak response. Really underscores the importance of the coordinating role WHO plays in situations such as this.

Friends don't let friends put Results before Methods

Per-contact transmission risk was previously estimated as 3.4% in household (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17471425/), so below could imply [big assumption] a single case on average infects roughly 20x0.034 = 0.7 others per day infectious on cruise. Can see why cluster can occur.

Key takeaways from WHO briefing on hantavirus cruise ship outbreak www.statnews.com/2026/05/07/h...

Not that surprising given the way these models are trained, but an important cautionary tale against relying on "data insights" from LLMs

Since there's taboo around this, suggesting that cases of Andes virus may be caused by human-to-human transmission on a cruise ship is entirely uncontroversial: 1️⃣ We already know it's able to. 2️⃣ Conditions are "optimal". 3️⃣ This doesn't change the fact that a larger outbreak is extremely unlikely.

Good morning! The Climate Change Commission has just released the first National Climate Change Risk Assessment in six years – and I've read the key document. In short: Climate change is here, we're not ready, but there's lots we can do to prepare. For more: newsroom.co.nz/2026/05/07/l...

More confirmation that the hantavirus species sequenced from the cruise ship MV Hondius is indeed Andes virus. Still waiting for actual sequence though… 🧪 www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/two-cas...

Trees in Christchurch's parks and reserves have a replacement value of $386M. They store 90K tonnes C, sequestering 4K tonnes C each year. They intercept 165M litres of rainfall every year, reducing the burden on stormwater infrastructure. doi.org/10.26021/16387 #ecosystemservices #urbanforest

1/ 📢 Join us for our next IDD Connect event, in partnership with the Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (CEMA)! 🌏 Region: Africa 💪 Theme: “Strengthening Infectious Disease Modelling in Africa”. #IDsky #EpiSky #PublicHealth #OneHealth 🧪

No. Next Are accelerated degrees the solution to higher education’s problems? www.timeshighereducation.com/depth/are-ac...

New from me—some quick thoughts about the hantavirus situation: open.substack.com/pub/deplatfo...

💯 I know that there have been some spreaders of nonsense, but for the most part I’ve seen a lot of informed and measured speculation. This is what the epidemiologists on the ground are doing over the course of their investigation as well. These investigations proceed in a very systematic fashion.

Good article with the latest on the cruise ship hantavirus outbreak www.science.org/content/arti...

expert reaction to hantavirus situation on cruise ship heading from Argentina to Cape Verde www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...

Latest post, on weaponised certainty and 'gold-standard' evidence: kucharski.substack.com/p/do-we-need...

Updates on the hantavirus situation from WHO (which we, beyond belief, are no longer part of). Seven suspected cases, three deaths. Case 1 boarded Apr 1, got sick Apr 6, died Apr 11. Likely Andes virus, given Argentina link. Consistent with infection before boarding. www.who.int/emergencies/...

New post, on gold-standard and 'aluminium-standard' evidence: kucharski.substack.com/p/do-we-need...

Though not without their flaws, Universities they have *already* done more to drive economic development and innovation than pretty much any other human institution, and that's in addition to creating informed citizens and otherwise enriching the human experience. The evidence for this is...

🆕 What motivates Aussie adults to get their flu vax? Most want to be vaccinated and trust in healthcare professionals has risen, but cost and appointment access remain barriers. 🔗 doi.org/10.1016/j.an... @julieleask.bsky.social @sydney.edu.au @publichealthaus.bsky.social