Ageing isn’t a 2070 problem – it’s happening now. In my latest podcast @bjafranklin.bsky.social @ilcuk.bsky.social shares how longer, healthier lives could boost the economy, reshape work & retirement, and unlock opportunities we’re missing. 🎧 www.lcp.com/en/podcasts/... #LongevityEconomy #Ageing

Please know that this is Trump scaremongering. There is no good scientific evidence linking paracetamol (Tylenol) to autism. A 2024 Swedish study of 2.4 million births found no relationship whatsoever between exposure to paracetamol in utero & subsequent autism. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

I'll have more to say on Reform's proposals to scrap ILR at some point but for now I'll just note this - anyone telling you this is a popular idea doesn't know the polling. Overwhelming majority of public back giving people who work and pay taxes most or all rights after 5 years or less

Average earnings up 4.7% in latest ONS figures - this is likely to drive the 'triple lock' increase next April. New state pension will be less than £1 per week under the income tax threshold in 2026, and will exceed it in 2027.

Why do women retire with half the pension wealth of men? 🎙️ In episode 8 I chat with Alexandra Miles about: 🔎 The pensions gap & structural inequalities 🌍 Migration, longevity & fiscal sustainability 📜 Lessons from the past and overseas 🧠 AI & the future of work www.lcp.com/en/podcasts/...

Boo! 😢

❓ Where does life expectancy go from here? After two centuries of steady gains, the UK has hit a pause. For some groups, life expectancy is falling. The legacy of Covid-19 and ongoing NHS pressures add to the challenges. My new podcasts explores longevity trends and #LifeExpectancy forecasts.

When you think about it for even a moment, that is quite an admission! “Sorry guys, our business model depends on exploiting illegal workers, if you want us to not break the law you’re gonna have to pay us more…”

Journalists on X gently suggesting it might not be a great idea for Reform to promote anti-vax conspiracies are of course getting swamped by angry blue ticks in replies.

Appalling to be platforming dangerous falsehoods.

Looks like an additional round of ministerial announcements - mostly ministers of state - has just landed: www.gov.uk/government/n...

Meanwhile... at the Reform Conference

The latest CMI mortality monitor covers the period ending 22 August. Death rates year-to-date remain the lowest ever seen. The gap between this year and the previous best years on record (2019 and 2024) has increased during the summer as death rates have been unusually low, despite heatwaves.

The latest edition of The Actuary magazine is out today and I was delighted to again contribute a column to the expert opinion section. My focus this month is on the impact of demographic trends. To hear more on this topic check out my podcast series. www.lcp.com/en/podcasts?...

Can the UK pension system adapt to an ageing population? In Episode 6, I talk with former Pensions Minister @stevewebb1.bsky.social about: 🕰️ Future of the State Pension & Triple Lock 👥 Retirement for today's workers 🏠 Housing costs for future pensioners 💔 Widowhood 🎧 www.lcp.com/en/podcasts/...

Arrived at EICC for #RSS2025Conf Looking forward to hosting a session tomorrow (3 Sep, 13:50) on how mortality forecasting is evolving post-Covid. We’ll cover the CMI_2024 model, expert input via Delphi methods, and the latest ONS projections. #Longevity #LifeExpectancy #mortality #actuaries

Wordle 1,535 1/6 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 It happened again!

What does demographic change mean for the workplace? In this week’s podcast I chat with Heidi Allan about the multigenerational workforce. 📊 How better data drives smarter support 🧠 Why one-size-fits-all wellbeing doesn’t cut it ⚙️ What employers can do right now 🎧 www.lcp.com/en/podcasts/...

Demographic changes are reshaping economies. In my latest podcast with Amlan Roy we explore: • Falling fertility & ageing populations • Migration & skills • Intergenerational fairness • Growth, markets & policy 🎙️ Listen here: www.lcp.com/en/podcasts/... #Demographics #Economics #AgeingPopulation

New podcast episode out now... 🎙️

Conscientiousness is strongly associated with personal and professional success, and even life expectancy. Worryingly, levels of conscientiousness are in decline, especially in the under 40s. Valuable new analysis from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com @data.ft.com on.ft.com/4ftchbz

The CMI has released its latest mortality monitor covering the period up to 25 July. Death rates year-to-date are the lowest ever seen, though only slightly lower than 2019 and 2024. In particularly, death rates have been notably lower than 2024 (the previous best year) for the last few weeks.

New article by me! Cardiovascular disease mortality rates have declined by around three-quarters since 1950, but we rarely hear about it. I explore some of the reasons behind the decline. ourworldindata.org/cardiovascul...

The headline here should say: "Number of private schools increases by 35 - showing fears of an exodus to be unfounded". (The increase is mentioned way down the article.) www.thetimes.com/article/19ef...

🎙️ New podcast series! In 'Beyond Curious with LCP' my guests and I will explore how changing demographic trends are reshaping our lives. We'll discuss impacts on pensions, healthcare, workplaces and the economy. 🎧 Listen here: www.lcp.com/en/podcasts/... #Longevity #Demographics #AgeingPopulation

Is life expectancy rising again? The new actuarial projection shows the first meaningful increase in longevity since the series began. After years of downward adjustments, a turning point? I spoke to Life Risk News about what this means for insurers and pension schemes. liferisk.news/nuanced-impa...

Census 2031 confirmed. Great news for all manner of decisions based on accurate population statistics. There’s been good progress with other methods of compiling population data. There’ll be a point where it makes sense to discontinue census, but we’re not there yet. www.ons.gov.uk/news/news/hm....

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has released its latest update covering mortality in the first half of 2025. Overall, mortality rates are at a historic low, however there is significant variation by age. For example, mortality rates for males aged 45-64 remain above pre-pandemic levels.

Great to see my collaboration with LCP colleagues and the @ippr.org cited in the NHS 10-year plan today! We projected Government healthcare spending to 2034/35 under a range of productivity and prevention scenarios. Blog summary here👇 www.lcp.com/en/insights/...

"entering a lottery to be allowed off your doomed island" feels a bit on the nose

New piece on why it’s unhelpful to characterise COVID debate as ‘lockdowns are bad’ vs ‘lockdowns are good’ when it was really about people who claimed that COVID was 100x less fatal than it was + optimal to have a massive epidemic immediately before vaccine… vs those who sense checked these claims.

Today the UK Statistics Authority has formally recommended that the 2031 Census go ahead. This was uncertain as the ONS has been making greater use of admin data (eg tax records, NHS data, driving licences) in recent years. uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/uk-stat...

Two useful reports on mortality out today. 1. OHID have released analysis of recent mortality trends in England covering all cause mortality, leading causes like cancer and cardiovascular, and different patterns by age group. Mortality rates in 2024 slightly lower than 2019 (previous best year).

New report on recent trends in mortality in England out today fingertips.phe.org.uk/documents/re...

Breaking News: The health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. removed all 17 members of a CDC advisory panel in his latest move to dismantle years of vaccine policy.

Latest CMI mortality monitor out today shows that overall mortality rates in England and Wales remain in line with the best years on record (2019 and 2024). Recent weeks were distorted by reduced death registrations on Bank Holidays, with a catch-up this week. www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...

Sarah Neville in the FT on lunch with Amanda Pritchard: "The NHS contributes between 10 and 20 per cent to people’s health, she says — a figure I find startlingly low" This widely quoted figure is startlingly low because it's probably wrong.🧵 www.ft.com/content/5cf4...

"The NHS needs new, transformative approaches". Dr @awilliamson1.bsky.social , research fellow at IPPR, on how we can build an NHS fit for the future. What does this look like in practice? 👇

Great report, well worth a read. My team collaborated with IPPR to model healthcare spending scenarios for this report.

🩺 | NEW REPORT: Building an NHS fit for the future is a life-or-death challenge. A new IPPR report outlines three key reforms that could save £21bn annually and keep NHS spending sustainable. www.ippr.org/articles/ref...

NEW 🧵 The number of people travelling from Europe to the US in recent weeks has plummeted by as much as 35%, as travellers have cancelled plans in response to Trump’s policies and rhetoric, and horror stories from the border. Story: www.ft.com/content/6dc1...

I just want to tip my hat to the crack team of White House economists who were able to discover--in just a few short days--that the U.S. is dependent on China for smartphones, computers and semiconductors.

Yesterday I attended this @royalstatsoc.bsky.social discussion of a new paper questioning the use of data and statistics during the Covid response. There were a number of areas where I disagree with the authors, but for brevity my reply only addresses issues with their excess deaths calculation. 🧵

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Perhaps surprisingly, today’s CMI Mortality Monitor shows that 2025 death rates in England & Wales continue to be relatively low, similar to last year. Death rates set a new record low in 2024. www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...

ONS Blog: Excess deaths – our continued work towards a better understanding blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/04/04/e... "Our paper to @UKStatsAuth Methodological Assurance Review Panel outlining a range of options" MARP paper: uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/wp-content/u...

NEW 🧵 A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far: 1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively. These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.

Congratulations, boss, you've done it: You're bigger than covid.

“My hope is that during the coming years, the unprecedented assault on scientific truth that has adversely impacted public health in our nation comes to an end so that the citizens of our country can fully benefit from the breadth of advances in medical science." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...