A (positive) pre-Christmas flu update, thanks to UKHSA for publishing a day early RSV (mostly affects the very young and very old) at a fairly high rate & some signs it is still rising, though

Flu numbers barely changed since last week and still in the medium band. Of course it is still possible that it spikes higher over the Christmas period but that doesn't seem the most likely outcome. Admissions with flu are considerably lower than 2022/23 peak.

With 3 weeks to go until the end of the year, the CMI has published its penultimate report on 2025 mortality rates. Mortality rates remain at record lows, about a 1.7% improvement on last year (when death rates equalled the previous record low in 2019). www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...

Some more assessment of this from over on LinkedIn

Just want to share with my American friends how the Australians respond to a shooting tragedy. Action, rather than thoughts and prayers.

Was on Sky News this morning discussing Flu and whether this was a record bad year or not. Also discussed what we could do and the importance of vaccines, ventilation and wearing a mask if you're ill. youtu.be/_PZiU3R7jac

Sensible measured messaging from UKHSA. In sharp contrast to what we’ve seen elsewhere.

"A challenge unlike any since the pandemic" - really? Have we all forgotten about December 2022? Ambulance response times for category 2 emergencies like heart attacks and strokes hit 92 minutes on average! The target is 18 mins. Yesterday's data says 32 minutes. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

🧵 Is it a super flu year? Who knows, but I think the current reporting is stupid. A pissed off thread using data. Firstly - here are today's headlines and some from the last 3 years... spot the difference. 1/10

The problem with a seasonal epidemic is that it's way too easy to write a sexy "flu numbers twice as bad as last year" headline, which is true but misleading, when you ought to be writing a "flu arrives a little earlier than last year" headline.

I've got to say, I'm not sure why this has become such a big media story. I might be wrong but my current view is that it's overblown. Flu arrived early, which is why it's breaking 'time of year' records, but it's only in the medium threshold and could peak lower than last year, let alone 2022-23.

Life expectancy in the UK has recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Yesterday, ONS released the latest National Life Tables and analysis of life expectancy in the UK. This is so called "period life expectancy", an objective but necessarily backwards-looking calculation. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Great that hospitals are currently exceeding government's 2% productivity growth target, though will be hard to sustain. It's no surprise though that this is barely denting waiting lists. My work (cited in NHS 10-year plan) showed that 2% pa needed just to stand still! www.ft.com/content/8c9b...

Disappointing outcome from trials looking at whether weight loss drug Semaglutide might delay Alzheimer’s disease progression. Reinforces how difficult it is to find effective treatments for Alzheimer’s and dementia.

I asked grok who was the better role model for humanity, Jesus Christ or Elon Musk. GUESS WHAT.

Thanks @actuarybyday.bsky.social , good to work with you on this. If people are interested in the Telegraph write-up, hopefully this link will work: www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c0af53a...

Today @stevewebb1.bsky.social and I released a report setting out our views on where State Pension Age (SPA) needs to go. We submitted to this to the Government SPA review last month. We recommend sharp increases to SPA, but with a guaranteed payout of 5 years. 🧵 www.lcp.com/en/insights/...

Some thoughts on a nice safe, uncontroversial topic that is sure not to annoy anyone. “SPA should be hiked by a year once a decade to make it more affordable, but everyone would get at least a five-year payout under a new plan floated by pension experts.” www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...

Flu is spiking up unusually early this year. The chart below shows hospital admissions, compared to six recent flu seasons. Other indicators like flu test positivity paint the same picture. From today's @ukhsa.bsky.social surveillance update: www.gov.uk/government/s...

This is really excellent data journalism... Elon Musk has declared war on the British government, it just doesn't realise it.

"Number of unfilled primary school places in England hits record high". Link: on.ft.com/47GtJWJ We should get used to seeing this story once a year!

There's been a significant fall in obesity rates in the US, linked to weight-loss drugs, according to a recent @gallup.com survey. After peaking at nearly 40% in 2022, the adult obesity rate has fallen to 37%. This means 7.6 million fewer people living with obesity. news.gallup.com/poll/696599/...

The reality is we have the highest tax burden in our history, large and increasingly expensive public debt, and yet *low* taxes on average earners vs historical trend. If we want better public services, *we* need to pay for them. But almost no-one dares to actually say that.

If you're a member of the National Trust remember to vote for council members by midnight tonight. Use the Quick Vote option. Entryist pressure group Reform Trust is trying to seize control. Stop them Voting is quick and easy if your membership card is at hand secure.cesvotes.com/V3-3-0/nt25/...

Flu admissions heading up... 📈 ... while Covid admissions head back down. 📉 www.gov.uk/government/s...

Everything you ever wanted to know about pensions (but were afraid to ask)... My colleague (and former Pensions Minister) @stevewebb1.bsky.social now has his own YouTube channel - a free searchable library of 3-minute explainer videos on pension topics. www.youtube.com/@stevewebbexplains

💊 Anti-obesity meds aren’t just a health story - they’re a longevity and finance story too. As new drugs reshape weight management, actuaries need to rethink how we model life expectancy for pensions and insurance. My new 'think' report explores the implications. actuaries.org.uk/media/oehe1m...

There are now 625,000 people aged 90 plus in the UK. This is up by more than 50% in the last 20 years. Around 16,600 of them are centenarians (people aged 100 plus). This has doubled since 2004. 1/2 New ONS release out today: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Today's hospital admissions data also suggesting that we may be past the peak of the current Covid-19 wave. www.gov.uk/government/s...

Tentative indicator that we might be past the peak already on the current Covid wave. 🤞🏻

For those who enjoyed the premature mortality piece yesterday, here is the original justification for the use of age 75.

2-in-5 men die prematurely according to charity Movember, but what exactly do they mean? It was great to be able to join Tim Harford and the 'More or Less' team on BBC Radio4 this morning to discuss life expectancy statistics and what they really mean. This one may not mean what you think it does!

Featured in the latest Digest: Declining Fertility in Wealthy Nations https://www.nber.org/digest/202510/declining-fertility-wealthy-nations?page=1&perPage=50

After a long pause, I've just done another England Covid & NHS update as we head into the autumn/winter season. TLDR: we're in a significant Covid wave now, the NHS is stretched, get boosted if you're eligible. christinapagel.substack.com/p/england-is...

What if ageing isn’t the problem - but our systems are? My new blog explores how changing #demographics is affecting retirement, #health, and the economy. The question is not whether demographic trends will reshape our world – it’s how we will choose to respond. 🔗 www.lcp.com/en/insights/...

#UKHSAVirusWatch is back, a summary of our weekly winter surveillance report .🦠🧵 This week's data shows an increase in COVID-19 activity, which is circulating at medium levels. Flu activity has also increased, particularly in those aged 15 to 24, but remains at baseline levels.

Death rates in England & Wales were at record lows this summer, despite heatwaves. Mortality in 2025 is at or near record lows, except for males age 45-64, who are still experiencing death rates higher than any year from 2011 - 2019. From CMI Mortality Monitor: www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-de...

First Covid wave for 12 months is well underway. Hospital admissions are already higher than last year's peak, but are much lower than we were seeing in earlier waves. There will be weekly surveillance reports through the winter months here: www.gov.uk/government/s...

Right now LCP’s podcasts are a distance ahead of what else is worth listening to; LCP @actuarybyday.bsky.social McDonald MBE Ben Rees Chris Tavener ; Thanks guys

In need of some good news? Smoking has now been virtually eliminated among school age kids in England! (Yes, some of this is a shift to vaping but still...) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68d3ee...

An absolute goldmine of health and mortality data 📊 Well done to all involved in this.

Fair play to Sadiq Khan. To live rent-free inside the head of the president of the USA is a massive achievement for any Mayor of London.

Ageing isn’t a 2070 problem – it’s happening now. In my latest podcast @bjafranklin.bsky.social @ilcuk.bsky.social shares how longer, healthier lives could boost the economy, reshape work & retirement, and unlock opportunities we’re missing. 🎧 www.lcp.com/en/podcasts/... #LongevityEconomy #Ageing

Please know that this is Trump scaremongering. There is no good scientific evidence linking paracetamol (Tylenol) to autism. A 2024 Swedish study of 2.4 million births found no relationship whatsoever between exposure to paracetamol in utero & subsequent autism. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

I'll have more to say on Reform's proposals to scrap ILR at some point but for now I'll just note this - anyone telling you this is a popular idea doesn't know the polling. Overwhelming majority of public back giving people who work and pay taxes most or all rights after 5 years or less

Average earnings up 4.7% in latest ONS figures - this is likely to drive the 'triple lock' increase next April. New state pension will be less than £1 per week under the income tax threshold in 2026, and will exceed it in 2027.

Why do women retire with half the pension wealth of men? 🎙️ In episode 8 I chat with Alexandra Miles about: 🔎 The pensions gap & structural inequalities 🌍 Migration, longevity & fiscal sustainability 📜 Lessons from the past and overseas 🧠 AI & the future of work www.lcp.com/en/podcasts/...

Boo! 😢