Is life expectancy still increasing in the UK? A short thread on why experts have come to different conclusions in recent years but why I think the latest data clearly shows an underlying trend of increasing #longevity. 1/6

It won’t be popular with everyone but this has to be the correct decision. Government can’t pay billions in compensation to a wealthy cohort just because a few of them ignored the news for 15-20 years. Most can’t say what they’d have done differently with more notice. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

If only there were some kind of useful lesson here about deploying more senior skills in triage outside of strike periods www.ft.com/content/c928...

GLP-1 drugs are grabbing headlines for weight loss, but the real story is the social dividend of a healthier population. Obesity costs the UK health system £11bn a year. A healthier population could reduce strain on NHS budgets & waiting lists. But interventions to keep people well are undervalued.

Hospital admissions with flu are back at "low" levels in England. www.gov.uk/government/s...

One of those quiet, incremental, good news stories that contributes to the ultra-long-term trend of the human condition getting better. Note also that in 2025, the small-but-early flu wave didn't do much to offset the progress.

For all of those who - think we are still in the middle of a raging pandemic 😷 - believe conspiracies about the covid vaccines 🤡 I have some more data for you to ignore or explain away

The CMI has released its analysis of 2025 mortality in England & Wales. Death rates for 2025 were nearly 2% lower than 2024, the previous record low. Death rates improved (i.e. fell) for both sexes and in all age groups between 2024 and 2025.

It was not a super flu year and why I think government and NHS messaging was wrong and counterproductive - my latest post christinapagel.substack.com/p/it-was-not...

Despite repeated doom-mongering, flu case numbers reached a plateau and have been falling steadily since mid-December. Just how bad is the current flu season is and are warnings it could be the worst in decades sensationalist? www.bmj.com/content/392/...

Don't say 'I told you so' Stuart, it's unedifying. 'Superflu' looking very much like normal flu. Worst flu season since... last year.

It was great to have the chance to contribute to the BBC 'More or Less' special series, 'the stats of the nation' yesterday. We focussed on health and life expectancy in the UK, and the challenges facing the NHS. 1/3 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

How do you perceive probability-based phrases? Take the quiz and see how you compare with the 500+ others who've done it so far...

ChatGPT is getting in on the 'your year wrapped' fad. Hard to argue with its take on my 2025! 𝐹𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟, 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐺𝐿𝑃‑1𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑜𝑚𝑒ℎ𝑜𝑤 𝑚𝑎𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑔𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑝 𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑦. I can't promise to be much different in 2026. Anyway, happy New Year!

New post! There was a lot of innovation in medicine and biomedical research this year, and I've tried to summarize the biggest ones in this blogpost. Medical breakthroughs in 2025. Plus a serious note at the end. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/medical-br...

Brilliant! “It’s unaffordable but also it’s not generous enough and we should not reform it” perfectly encapsulates the cognitive dissonance in public attitudes towards the State Pension!

A (positive) pre-Christmas flu update, thanks to UKHSA for publishing a day early RSV (mostly affects the very young and very old) at a fairly high rate & some signs it is still rising, though

Flu numbers barely changed since last week and still in the medium band. Of course it is still possible that it spikes higher over the Christmas period but that doesn't seem the most likely outcome. Admissions with flu are considerably lower than 2022/23 peak.

With 3 weeks to go until the end of the year, the CMI has published its penultimate report on 2025 mortality rates. Mortality rates remain at record lows, about a 1.7% improvement on last year (when death rates equalled the previous record low in 2019). www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...

Some more assessment of this from over on LinkedIn

Just want to share with my American friends how the Australians respond to a shooting tragedy. Action, rather than thoughts and prayers.

Was on Sky News this morning discussing Flu and whether this was a record bad year or not. Also discussed what we could do and the importance of vaccines, ventilation and wearing a mask if you're ill. youtu.be/_PZiU3R7jac

Sensible measured messaging from UKHSA. In sharp contrast to what we’ve seen elsewhere.

"A challenge unlike any since the pandemic" - really? Have we all forgotten about December 2022? Ambulance response times for category 2 emergencies like heart attacks and strokes hit 92 minutes on average! The target is 18 mins. Yesterday's data says 32 minutes. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

🧵 Is it a super flu year? Who knows, but I think the current reporting is stupid. A pissed off thread using data. Firstly - here are today's headlines and some from the last 3 years... spot the difference. 1/10

The problem with a seasonal epidemic is that it's way too easy to write a sexy "flu numbers twice as bad as last year" headline, which is true but misleading, when you ought to be writing a "flu arrives a little earlier than last year" headline.

I've got to say, I'm not sure why this has become such a big media story. I might be wrong but my current view is that it's overblown. Flu arrived early, which is why it's breaking 'time of year' records, but it's only in the medium threshold and could peak lower than last year, let alone 2022-23.

Life expectancy in the UK has recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Yesterday, ONS released the latest National Life Tables and analysis of life expectancy in the UK. This is so called "period life expectancy", an objective but necessarily backwards-looking calculation. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Great that hospitals are currently exceeding government's 2% productivity growth target, though will be hard to sustain. It's no surprise though that this is barely denting waiting lists. My work (cited in NHS 10-year plan) showed that 2% pa needed just to stand still! www.ft.com/content/8c9b...

Disappointing outcome from trials looking at whether weight loss drug Semaglutide might delay Alzheimer’s disease progression. Reinforces how difficult it is to find effective treatments for Alzheimer’s and dementia.

I asked grok who was the better role model for humanity, Jesus Christ or Elon Musk. GUESS WHAT.

Thanks @actuarybyday.bsky.social , good to work with you on this. If people are interested in the Telegraph write-up, hopefully this link will work: www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c0af53a...

Today @stevewebb1.bsky.social and I released a report setting out our views on where State Pension Age (SPA) needs to go. We submitted to this to the Government SPA review last month. We recommend sharp increases to SPA, but with a guaranteed payout of 5 years. 🧵 www.lcp.com/en/insights/...

Some thoughts on a nice safe, uncontroversial topic that is sure not to annoy anyone. “SPA should be hiked by a year once a decade to make it more affordable, but everyone would get at least a five-year payout under a new plan floated by pension experts.” www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...

Flu is spiking up unusually early this year. The chart below shows hospital admissions, compared to six recent flu seasons. Other indicators like flu test positivity paint the same picture. From today's @ukhsa.bsky.social surveillance update: www.gov.uk/government/s...

This is really excellent data journalism... Elon Musk has declared war on the British government, it just doesn't realise it.

"Number of unfilled primary school places in England hits record high". Link: on.ft.com/47GtJWJ We should get used to seeing this story once a year!

There's been a significant fall in obesity rates in the US, linked to weight-loss drugs, according to a recent @gallup.com survey. After peaking at nearly 40% in 2022, the adult obesity rate has fallen to 37%. This means 7.6 million fewer people living with obesity. news.gallup.com/poll/696599/...

The reality is we have the highest tax burden in our history, large and increasingly expensive public debt, and yet *low* taxes on average earners vs historical trend. If we want better public services, *we* need to pay for them. But almost no-one dares to actually say that.

If you're a member of the National Trust remember to vote for council members by midnight tonight. Use the Quick Vote option. Entryist pressure group Reform Trust is trying to seize control. Stop them Voting is quick and easy if your membership card is at hand secure.cesvotes.com/V3-3-0/nt25/...

Flu admissions heading up... 📈 ... while Covid admissions head back down. 📉 www.gov.uk/government/s...

Everything you ever wanted to know about pensions (but were afraid to ask)... My colleague (and former Pensions Minister) @stevewebb1.bsky.social now has his own YouTube channel - a free searchable library of 3-minute explainer videos on pension topics. www.youtube.com/@stevewebbexplains

💊 Anti-obesity meds aren’t just a health story - they’re a longevity and finance story too. As new drugs reshape weight management, actuaries need to rethink how we model life expectancy for pensions and insurance. My new 'think' report explores the implications. actuaries.org.uk/media/oehe1m...

There are now 625,000 people aged 90 plus in the UK. This is up by more than 50% in the last 20 years. Around 16,600 of them are centenarians (people aged 100 plus). This has doubled since 2004. 1/2 New ONS release out today: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Today's hospital admissions data also suggesting that we may be past the peak of the current Covid-19 wave. www.gov.uk/government/s...

Tentative indicator that we might be past the peak already on the current Covid wave. 🤞🏻

For those who enjoyed the premature mortality piece yesterday, here is the original justification for the use of age 75.

2-in-5 men die prematurely according to charity Movember, but what exactly do they mean? It was great to be able to join Tim Harford and the 'More or Less' team on BBC Radio4 this morning to discuss life expectancy statistics and what they really mean. This one may not mean what you think it does!

Featured in the latest Digest: Declining Fertility in Wealthy Nations https://www.nber.org/digest/202510/declining-fertility-wealthy-nations?page=1&perPage=50