I guess the question is Steve, for how much longer is it appropriate to keep increasing the SP above both earnings and prices, given the huge cost and impact on generational inequity?

Good morning from Bristol! Just a few of the balloons on this morning’s spectacular 6am ascent. #BalloonFiesta

An interesting read for anyone inspired by the story of the Salt Path. Seems they were somewhat economical with the truth as to how they lost their house. Having done the whole SWCP Mrs R read the book when it came out and was very sceptical about her story, apparently with some justification.

John, meet @ottoenglish.bsky.social , who’s post was perfectly timed in my feed.

Whenever the subject of the fishing industry comes up I do wonder how important it actually is to our economy, in relation to other sectors which would benefit from a closer relationship with Europe. Is it a case of the fishtail wagging the dog?

Blimey. Greek inflation must be steep…. 2.30pm ↙️ 5.15pm. ↘️

I've only got three years to look at, but my perception that it's been a remarkably fine early Spring is certainly borne out by my solar generation - up a third on the average of 23/24.

Perhaps surprisingly, today’s CMI Mortality Monitor shows that 2025 death rates in England & Wales continue to be relatively low, similar to last year. Death rates set a new record low in 2024. www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...

An interesting thread setting out how recent mortality trends are moving in opposite directions at differing age groups.

Death rates reached a record low in 2024, slightly lower than 2019, but it's not all good news. As I said to the BBC "This is five years of basically flat mortality improvement, it's pretty poor by historical standards". And working-age death rates are still higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Today’s CMI mortality analysis again shows death rates that are towards the middle of the pre-pandemic 10-year range. It looks like registration delays are still a bit longer than normal, so still a bit of a backlog.

Just back from 17 days in Vietnam and Cambodia and amongst the highlights were sunrise at Angkor Wat, a week cruising the Mekong, and Ha Long Bay.

Another significant fall in flu admissions this week but still higher than last year's peak. www.gov.uk/government/s...

Mortality based on death registrations reached a new low in 2024, just beating 2019. There was a change in the registration process in Sept though that introduced a slight delay - without that it's likely registrations would have been slightly higher, but still broadly in line with 2019.

Deaths in line with the pre-pandemic trend once more. And a reminder that upward trend is due to an ageing population, particularly due to the baby boomer generation reaching old age.

More here on concerns about how the pensions / IHT changes could cause delays for grieving families, including in cases where no IHT is eventually due - so it's not just a 'problem for the rich': www.thesun.co.uk/money/322828...

Finally I can explain why I only got a “pass” at Grade 8, much to my parents’ disappointment. It was all their fault for not owning a Steinway for me to practise on.

Good to see that the govt has not caved in to a vociferous campaign by a minority who claim not to have known about the change to SPA. Given the very undeserving cases bizarrely put forward by them (remember the 3 properties woman?) it would have been an inappropriate use of taxpayers money.

Hospitalisation with flu up again this week, crossing the medium threshold. More positively, the rate of increase was much slower than last week so hopefully we'll avoid any repeat of the 2022/23 peak. Source: www.gov.uk/government/s...

Cumulative mortality for 2024 is now just about equal to the lowest ever year, 2019, and still on a positive trend with just a few weeks left this year. Note that CMI estimates it would be around 0.25% higher but for the change in registration reporting implemented in Sep. 1/

Let’s be grateful William wasn’t accompanied by Catherine.

Apart from the good news story here about US health, this is an excellent example of how statistics can (either unwittingly or, as we saw in the pandemic, deliberately) be used to mislead. "So cancer rates are up 20% since 1990, huh?" Adds red line:- "Nope, think again. Down a third."

Clickbait buzzword #94. "Tiny". As used here in relation to Bristol Airport, which has c10m passengers a year.

I remember ostrich farms were a common scam a few years ago. Problem is people just keep putting their head in the sand and ignoring this type of warning.

Nicely put. Not only does vaccination protect the individual, but by protecting them results in less pressure on the health system both by them needing less treatment and reducing (to varying degrees) transmission.

Looks like we are in for an early flu season this year. If you're eligible for a flu vaccine (or want to pay for one) then now might be a good time to get one. It'll help protect yourself, and might help relieve extreme pressure on the NHS over Xmas, and in doing so help protect others.

CMI has released its weekly mortality monitor. Death rates again at the lower end of the 2011-19 range. Death rates year-to-date continue to track the best year on record (2019) closely. Ordinarily we expect death rates to fall over any 5-year period, so this isn’t quite as good news as it sounds.

I wonder where they are all stored….

Azeem commented on the old site that he gets no engagement here. Can someone add him to a list that will alert people to the fact that he is now on the friendly no bot no porn site?

Good news (but no great shakes) as 2024 mortality levels look on track to broadly match the best ever year of 2019, after a turbulent few intervening years.

I’m surprised they haven’t asked for Chicken Licken to be withdrawn by Ladybird Books too, as it reinforces terribly unfair negative stereotyping of foxes too.

Of the many depressing aspects about Trump’s re-election, his picks for health stand out. I fear the damage done over the next 4 years will take generations to reverse. (And US health hardly starts from a great place, as its relative position in any international mortality comparison testifies. )

A great juxtaposition of posts from you know where which perfectly demonstrate why so many are now using this place more than the other (including me).

Wondering how long before someone comes on here and promotes a starter pack for like-minded vaccine sceptics and misinformation experts. (Hint: I won’t be following…)

As we're now in the run in to the year end, it's fair to say that 2024 death registrations will be nearly as good as the best ever year of 2019, after a run of years ranging from dreadful to mediocre. Good news, huh? 1/

Good! Meddings had no experience in healthcare and a very chequered (and that’s being over polite) track record in Financial Services. Should never have been given the job in the first place.

An early morning boat ride, and I’m now marooned for the next 12 hours…#Steepholm

In 2019 we started walking Offa’s Dyke footpath, and yesterday finished at Prestatyn Beach, 177 miles from the start near Chepstow. A fantastic adventure, with some beautiful scenery on the way. Highly recommended!

CMI calculated age-standardised mortality for E&W continues its recent trend, and remains the second lowest ever, though has a way to go if it to match 2019 by the year end. Nevertheless, after a bit of a (COVID related?) plateau during the summer it's back to an encouraging trend.

Without understating the alleged crime here, I really don’t understand why a relatively minor celebrity’s prosecution is more important than major world events.

Today's earnings figures means the #BasicStatePension increase next April will likely be 4%, almost twice the current CPI inflation rate, continuing the pattern whereby it increases faster than both prices and earnings over time. 1/

This trend is such a depressingly predictable failure of the previous govt to take action to prevent a hugely negative development in the population’s health. No doubt mainly due to lobbying by the vaping industry and an overly liberalist philosophy.

Well I didn't expect to get support from the RAC for my recent suggestion that it was about time that fuel duty is raised, albeit that they are coming at it from a slightly different angle. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

So the budget will be painful, eh? I'll vote for the "hard pressed driver", who has seen a 15% reduction in the real cost of fuel over the last 15 years, to shoulder a share of the pain. Each p increase in duty adds about £0.5Bn to the Treasury coffers.

I’ve been lying dormant on here for some months, but given comments on another network that it’s becoming more active here I’m going to start posting again. Might be more cats than actuary stuff though just to manage expectations.

Make a band milder: The Taples.

Some thoughts from the COVID Actuaries team on the death of our good friend and colleague, Adele Groyer. On a personal note I am already missing greatly her amusing chatty messages which continued until a couple of days before her death. RIP Adele 1979 - 2024 covidactuaries.org/2024/02/05/a...

ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 17 Nov. Death counts were 3% higher than the 5-year average this week with 284 more deaths registered compared to the average. Year-to-date there have been 514,647 deaths registered, 6% more than the 5-year average.

ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 10 Nov. Death counts were 5% higher than the 5-year average this week with 534 more deaths registered compared to the average. Year-to-date there have been 503,404 deaths registered, 6% more than the 5-year average.

We’re seeing a period whereby mortality is tracking on or around 2019 according to the CMI’s latest age standardised analysis. Let’s hope recent signs of hospital pressures returning don’t mean it’s a short lived respite.