A new Variance Betting for the EPL round is in subscriber inboxes. The next two months last season were the best performing period I had. Here's to hoping we repeat that alongside the strong start already. Subscribe to the analysis below! www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade

The Asian Handicap for Arsenal vs Aston Villa is Arsenal -1.25. You could easily get £500K down on Villa to lose by one goal or less. You know, the team that has won eleven games in a row. This is such a weird season.

FC Groningen, Attacking and Defending Radars 24-25 vs 25-26. Significant upgrades in output, but why?

Keisuke Goto, Sint-Truiden Radar and Shot Maps. I genuinely love a deep cut, hipster football radar request.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (@TheTransferFlow AKA: Bridgerton). I didn't think he was good enough for Chelsea when they signed him, but that he WAS good enough for the PL. And I still feel that way. Definitely enjoys playing with Grealish!

Cody Gakpo, Shot Maps from PSV and then the last 3 Liverpool seasons. I am always intrigued by how high volume wide forwards will adjust their shooting once they get to the PL. In Gakpo's case... he's really struggled to convert those angled shots into PL goals.

Viktor Gyokeres, Coventry 22-23 and Arsenal 25-26. I was not excited about the Gyokeres move due to age vs cost, and the potential gap between his output in the Championship vs what we saw in Portugal. It's safe to say these were valid concerns.

Florian Wirtz, Bayer Leverkusen 23-24 vs Liverpool 25-26. Very much a work in progress, which is okay because he's still pretty young. Year 2 for him will be VERY interesting, but so will the second half of the season!

Chelsea Attacking and Defensive radar comparison, 24-25 vs 25-26. Plus the attacking shot maps for each season.

The request line is OPEN. Please request player/team, season, and vis type. You have 10 minutes before this offer expires. Good luck!

I'm going to do something I haven't done in many years... At 12UK time (about an hour), I'm going to open a Request Line for football vis. DO NOT REQUEST NOW. I'm just warning you so you can think ahead.

Now THAT... is a shot map. Leeds' gamble on Calvert-Lewin's health is paying off so far.

Having a solid weekend so far on Variance Betting, with two more EPL games to go. And just dropped the Monday Championship analysis email to subscribers. No rest for the degenerates!

genuine trappist

so far there has been one shot attempt taken in Brighton's half of the pitch it was taken by Arsenal

New podcast! @patrickbvs.bsky.social and @mixedknuts.bsky.social talk about the upcoming January transfer window. Why it's likely to be super active, and what everyone in the Premier League needs: www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8Gf...

Has anyone read a great piece or two on Arsenal's 4-4-2 out of possession midblock? Will also happily take links to videos of Arteta discussing it. And any tactical coaches courses on how to train it? Thanks!

On this week's Patreon, @mixedknuts and @PatrickBVS talk about: • How much fan opinion should matter for clubs • Why goalkeepers are so hard to evaluate • Their favourite non-Arsenal players of all time New episodes every Friday. Sign up here: www.patreon.com/TheTransferF...

Given the Maresca noise the last two weeks, I wanted to look back and see what Chelsea's xG trending had been across his tenure. There was one elite two-month period... and the rest has largely just been okay. We'll see if the attack continues to ramp up.

*goes to start analysing EPL Betting weekend* Oh. AFCON. Oh oh oh. *takes a big step back... then goes back to work* Sunderland, that is a lot of gentlemen that got on planes.

In the most MLS trade of all time, Toronto FC traded their first round draft pick to Colorado for a video analyst/assistant coach. Colorado then used that pick to select a player already under contract at their club for 2026.

"And Tiny Tim, who did not die" = heartwarming, Christmassy. "And Tiny Tim, who would not die" = sinister, alarming.

🧵 Thread: I recently looked into the concept of escaping pressure 👇 1️⃣ 3rd player, up-back combos are the most efficient at escaping pressure 🔷 I defined a press-escaping situation as a pass that found a free player (not pressured in 3 seconds), after 2 consecutive ball carriers were pressurized

🔷 A complex concept to pull-out from event data, tracking data would help to better define under-pressure situations 🔷 The study suggests it's important for certain styles & that some combinations are more efficient ✍️ Full article available here 👇 cambiodejuegoenglish.beehiiv.com/p/up-back-3r...

New podcast! @patrickbvs.bsky.social and @hvanbrewer.bsky.social talk about: • City's attack starting to click • Arsenal's dropping off without injured stars • The good and bad at Man United • What's going wrong for Spurs www.youtube.com/watch?v=K21Z...

Maybe the single biggest difference between DoF work and transfer pundit work: There are a LOT of not very good footballers. And as a pundit, you basically never pay attention to them. As a DoF they are constantly in your inbox.

I turned off the Man United match last night when it was 1-0 and ten shots to zero in favour of United. To be fair, I was sick, but also thought... yeah, this is done. Not going to be much to see here. 🤣

I have food poisoning and am not leaving my couch. Tell me what to watch, please?

Christmas night: "But Santa, you've hardly touched your Zardoz cookies."

Own Goal having a lethal showing this weekend.

The CL feels very on the fence this season about whether or not it believes in home field advantage.

Incredible coaching name battle in Qarabag tonight. QURBAN QURBANOV vs. FRED GRIM

For Variance Betting folks: Qarabag handicap in the email was flipped. Would still bet at -.5. Also, I know Bilbao has moved today. It takes us many hours to write the emails, and we usually work a day ahead. Impossible to write the email and have market perfect lines.

It took years to build, but my brain considers this the equivalent of Leicester City's Premier League.

Repost with your model of positive masculinity

UK December Food Favs: Brandy cream in your coffee. M&S cranberry sauce on morning porridge/oatmeal (plus fruit and nuts).

Benjamin Sesko, Manchester United 25-26. Not a great early sample, while the team has been doing largely okay. It's slightly worse because there are a bunch of sub minutes baked in as well. The Premier League seems particularly hard for big men to adapt to these days.

The Sun is a coward

New podcast! @mixedknuts.bsky.social and @shelatneel.bsky.social talk about why Spurs shouldn't fire Thomas Frank, plus Liverpool and Real Madrid's manager dilemmas. www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TFB...

We're working on an intro to gambling course, but +1.5 is like +1.5 base units on approx 50/50 bets. So if you bet £10 per bet, you'd be up £15ish on the weekend. And if you are +24 on the season and bet 10,000 per bet (as stated at the start of the season), then you'd be up... over 200k. ymmv

I'll allow it. I mostly write about Spurs this season so that Kim doesn't have to and so @michaelcaley.bsky.social will quote skeet things. (But it's still weird how few people send feedback given it's FOOTBALL and everyone has opinions all of the time.)

Variance Betting ground out a tidy +1.5 on the weekend (with Birmingham still in action tonight). The bankroll is up over 200k so far on the season. *deep breath* And there's a midweek round of PL and Eng Champ this week! iamcrushingitbutiamsotired

Newsletters and podcasts are such a strange thing. Even with tens of thousands of readers/listeners at @thetransferflow.bsky.social, you get zero feedback most days. (Unless you put out something terrible, then they let you hear it.)

I'm sorry, the WHAT?

FWIW I don't think Simons is easy to evaluate. Spurs don't have a competent midfield and this guy is on the other side of that. He'd almost certainly look A LOT better at Chelsea. Meanwhile Eze has looked nothing but amazing amongst Arsenal's general competence and squad depth.

Let me just check in on how Xavi Simons at Spurs is adapting to the Prem- ohhhhh no. It's been a while since we've seen a hatched of unrealised dreams this stark.

It brings me no pleasure to report that the Ohio State-Michigan head referee is Kon Knueppel’s uncle Kole Knueppel

@kimischilling.bsky.social your hit rate in FPL this season is kinda freaky