Let's just check in on Arsenal's cross-London derby last night. Woof, feels like a long time since I saw one of those.

The wheels came off the Coventry = Bayern wagon back in December. That's why Boro managed to catch them. Can it be repaired or will Boro and Ipswich end up as the two automatic promotion teams?

Marvel at the array of names on the scoresheet in this Brazilian league game.

YESSSS. Definitely abuse @jair1970.com until this happens.

Variance Inc. has ANOTHER job opening, this time for an App Developer. Building Next.js apps, working closely with our data team, turning clean data into products people want to use - real input into what we build and how it looks. Submit your application here forms.gle/TquRjoNPewPD...

This might be the most entertaining Sean Dyche race chart there will ever be. None can top it, especially since he got fired after. Meanwhile, down at Palace...

Sean Dyche's team with 35 shots and 0 goals. The reasons to lose the bets lately are fairly incredible. Mamas, don't let your babies grow up and bet on sports.

team A stomping team B but unable to score = loads of shots, that's a thing; but a Sean Dyche team taking 35 shots is amazing

"I'll raise you ... no English" the Josh Johnson bit on the SB halftime show was amazing www.youtube.com/shorts/JFzsk...

Unsurprisingly, Kim spat fire today about Spurs. www.thetransferflow.com/p/thomas-fra...

Tottenham Hotspur xG Trendlines from the Nuno/Conte handoff through to now. Frank cratered the attack from the Ange period (or injuries did), but couldn't get the defense sorted well enough to matter. And now...?

What an evening of The Barclay's

I have no idea how Chelsea haven't won this. Endless pressure and chances in the final 10 minutes. Leeds never able to get the pressure off. And yet...?

We are hiring at Variance Inc. for a Data Engineer. We’re building products around sports and gambling data, and we’re looking for a data engineer to own the data layer. You need to have worked with sports data! If that sounds like you, or a friend, submit your app forms.gle/kty6UnTYb6Nb...

We are hiring at Variance Inc. for a Data Engineer. We’re building products around sports and gambling data, and we’re looking for a data engineer to own the data layer. You need to have worked with sports data! If that sounds like you, or a friend, submit your app forms.gle/kty6UnTYb6Nb...

IG keeps telling me, "You should be in Australia. Or Costa Rica." and motherfucker it is taking every fiber of my being not to hop on a flight to the sun and disappear from life for a few months.

New Podcast! @mixedknuts.bsky.social and @patrickbvs.bsky.social break down: • The wild ending to Liverpool vs City • Are City back in the title race? • Who’s getting relegated? • Is Hot Hand Theory real? www.youtube.com/watch?v=wevi...

Look, I know that Spurs are a bit of a nowhere vortex when it comes to attack, but I'm not sure we should let that colour our judgment of Kolo Muani this season, who has bee- OH MY GOD

We need Monday Night Football (UK version) to get PL footballs from the last five years and conduct a study on whether the balls this season are juiced. I know @23carra.bsky.social only scores own goals, but maybe they can sub in some thumpers to help test the post-strike velocities?

Viktor Gyokeres, Arsenal 25-26 (Feb 9 update). Not a lot of shots, but he gets some VERY high quality chances. When fully healthy, Arsenal would be happy to let him farm the lesser PL and Cup teams.

It’s not just that sports betting has been legalized in America but that the country has gone from tee-totaling abstinence to the absolute scammiest most predatory version of the industry over night.

Parlays are the biggest sucker bets out there, almost always, the spot where the sportsbook has the single biggest advantage over the betting public (with extremely limited and very occasional exceptions). Their prominence is a sign that the industry has complete disregard for its consumers.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Oh My God What a free kick

I'm using Mike's early post as a teaching point: 1) Do not plot stuff on green pitches. It hampers ALL of your colour choices going forward 2) Humans cannot tell the size of circles apart from one another except at the extremes. Choose diff shapes if you want size to mean something.

It looks like there were delivery issues on yday's Variance Betting analysis at the Email Service Provider level. That's something well out of our control. If you ever miss out on an email, they are also published to The Transfer Flow website for easy access.

Reminder: Early Bird tickets for @TheTransferFlow Conference are now available to all. There are a limited amount of these discounted tickets, and once they are gone, they're gone.

Running in the winter in England be like

Early Bird Tickets to @thetransferflow.bsky.social Conference are LIVE! When: May 22nd Where: Central London What: Daytime session is for football industry professionals with data, tactics, and insider knowdleg Night= a live TTF podcast where we rebuild teams www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/1981005227...

Arda Guler, Real Madrid 25-26. Turns 21 later this month! I'm intrigued by the left/right balance in his key pass map.

Valentin Barco, Strasbourg 25-26. Unless Brighton have a buyback, I absolutely expect to see him at Chelsea next season.

Ayyoub Bouaddi, Lille 25-26. Midfielder 1.0 template. A nightmare for spellchecks and future midfields alike. We are very intrigued.

Diogo Dalot, Manchester United 25-26. The fact that he has played on the right and the left really muddies the understanding of what his optimal performance would look like. Players do not produce the same, regardless of what side they play on.

Anton Stach, Leeds 25-26. Midfielder 2.0 radar and shot map.

Kennet Eichhorn, Hertha Berlin 25-26. Just your standard 16yo starting games in Bundesliga.2. [And the deep data cut from his time in the U17 league last season.]

Please do not fail the request line format at the first post. You are better than this, people!

I think Mike is suggesting that with FBRef poofed, I should probably run more Request Lines, like the olden days. Shall we do it? The Request Line is OPEN. Please state player (full name), team, season and vis for what you want. You have 10 minutes Good luck.

FWIW I think Pollard and Reep created the concept around goal probability (and wrote about it in academia in 1997 and before!), they just didn't have the scale or execution to apply it the way the gambling groups did. Hence xG=gambling, backfilled into player + coaching concepts.

Really good article on Cesc, the job he’s doing at Como, the influences of the coaches he played under, and a nice bit of PR around his adherence to a playing style dictated by ownership which will impress future employers. www.theguardian.com/football/202...

FWIW I think Pollard and Reep created the concept around goal probability (and wrote about it in academia in 1997 and before!), they just didn't have the scale or execution to apply it the way the gambling groups did. Hence xG=gambling, backfilled into player + coaching concepts.

Definitely seems like they destroyed the country on purpose.

The 6.82 expected goals (xG) created by Barcelona vs Elche is the most xG ever created by a team in a Big 5 league match, in Hudl Statsbomb data going back to 2015/16. And against 11 men too - no red cards!

These are my two favourite race charts ever, and now a perfect pair. The are Como-Atalanta's insane draw at the weekend that finished 0-0, with Como putting up over 4.5xG. And Atalanta v Empoli in another 0-0 from 2019, where Atalanta had over 4xG and... zero goals.

Saw a random thread on metacurrency potentially making RPGs less immersive and as someone who has been working adjacent to Euros, Pounds, and Swedish Kroners for the last couple of months... Weird currency conversion is deeply intrinsic to life. [See also Claude Code tokens and AI ;p]

Fulham WUT U DO?!? Easiest goal of the United season there.

So THIS was not what I expected to see when I looked at Chelsea numbers. It's a classic case of me thinking "they should be becoming MORE bettable, right? Especially given the results?" But the numbers are not trending that way.

The CBS studio reacting in real time to Benfica's stoppage time goal

Many are saying Benfica