Carolyn Guse (@carolynguse3.bsky.social)

SINE|ISEN Servicio Internacional de Noticias Electorales | International Service of Electoral News By Ben Riley-Smith, Political Correspondent Labour is on course to suffer its worst result in opposition for 34 years at the local elections, one of Britain’s most respected polling experts has warned. The party will lose 170 councillors and control of a string of councils if people vote as the polls currently suggest, according to analysis by Prof John Curtice for The Telegraph. Labour moderates warned the result would be a “tragedy” and that the party leadership would have to “take some responsibility” for the losses. Party rebels are preparing to use the council defeats to call into question Jeremy Corbyn’s suitability for leadership by saying it proves his political “experiment” is not working. It comes with Mr Corbyn facing his biggest electoral test since taking over the leadership last September when the country goes to the polls on May 5. As well as elections for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly – where Labour is expected to suffer setbacks – a string of councillors in England are seeking re-election. The contest is seen as a vital litmus test for Mr Corbyn’s popularity because winning back voters in England is crucial to Labour beating the Tories in the 2020 general election. Analysis for this newspaper by Prof Curtice, who teaches politics at Strathclyde University and is president of the British Polling Council, reveals the party is heading for a historic council defeat. Taking Labour’s two-point trail behind the Tories in current polls the party looks set to lose 170 councillors, according to Prof Curtice. The analysis presumed little change in the Liberal Democrat and UK Independence Party vote. Even if the party draws level with the Conservatives in national polling they are expected to lose 120 councillors, while dropping to four points behind would see a loss of 220 Labour councillors. Losing 170 seats would be worse than any Labour performances in opposition since 1982, when the party lost 225 seats. Labour could also lose control of key councils including Cannock Chase, Crawley, Redditch, Rossendale and Southampton. Prof Curtice said that Mr Corbyn’s “misfortune” was that the council seats up for election this year were last contested in 2012, when Labour was enjoying a surge in support after George Osborne’s “omnishambles” Budget. He added: “Given that Labour are currently still behind in the polls, albeit less than a few weeks ago, it seems almost inevitable that Labour will lose council seats on May 5th. “Such an outcome will simply confirm that as yet at least, Mr Corbyn has yet to find a formula that makes Labour look as though it could return to power.” Major parties in opposition have on average gained 434 council seats at local elections since 1974, when the current boundaries were introduced. New leaders also tend to make gains after taking over, with Labour under Michael Foot – who was overseeing a deeply divided party – winning 988 council seats in 1981, his first year in the role. Labour moderates have demanded gains in recent months and are expected to question Mr Corbyn’s electability if the party slumps to major council losses, even if Sadiq Khan wins the race for London Mayor. Discussing the possibility of a 170-seat loss, Kevan Jones, the former shadow defence minister under Mr Corbyn, said it would raise questions about the leadership This would be very grim news for the Labour Party and a tragedy for hundreds of hard working Labour councillors whose fate the national leadership would have to take some responsibility for,” he said. A former shadow cabinet minister said: “This is the first real test of the Corbyn experiment. This is his chance to prove his tactics and strategy. If there are losses you will get a lot of people raising questions.” https://sineisen.tribunal-electoral.gob.pa/portal/article?articleId=21421