Even worse, these reserves were built for specific crisis scenarios *that may yet happen* - and how will we respond then to some acute crisis (take your pick) with depleted strategic reserves? Not favourably, me thinks…

„Man muss jene, die die Demokratie zerstören wollen, ernst nehmen. Es sind nicht bloß harmlose Spinner, die zu Hause vor ihren Computern sitzen und ins Internet schreien. Es sind einflussreiche, mächtige Ideologen, die immer weniger Hehl daraus machen, was ihre Absichten sind.“

Telling the world you ran out of bombs after sucker-punching world superpowers <checks notes> Venezuela and Iran is not a flex. In fact, it makes us look like the blowhard paper tiger we are. You killed public education to fund the military for decades and ran out of bombs in two weeks

Wer nicht lesen will, muss hören! www.argon-verlag.de/hoerbuch/joe...

The Middle East is a place where you can announce to kill “groups of people” with impunity. You wouldn’t do that in Venezuela for example, because that’s in the “western hemisphere”. But Middle Easterners can be dehumanized and erased en masse. Shocking. This will not end well.

🧐

Just announced: Iceland has urgently moved up its referendum to join the European Union - to 29 August. A reminder: 🇮🇸 is in many ways already a non-voting 🇪🇺 member because of the EEA. This would give them voting power to shape the laws they have to follow.

Read this! It’s all in here. open.substack.com/pub/escalati...

In dieser Ausgabe von „Das Politikteil“ spreche ich mit @heinrichwefing.bsky.social und Tina Hildebrandt über die deutsche Außenpolitik am Nullpunkt, mein neues Buch - und warum ich glaube, dass der neue Nahostkrieg fundamental gegen unsere Interessen verstößt open.spotify.com/episode/7dvu...

Über Regime-Change, „Herumdrucksen“ und Zoll-Konflikt: der #Bundeskanzler im Interview aus Washington: www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...

In meinem neuen Buch, das JETZT im Buchhandel ist, erzähle ich unter anderem, wie die Idee in die Welt kam, nur ein Krieg gegen den Iran werde den endgültigen Frieden im Nahen Osten bringen. Schon Ende 2004 wurde das bei einer Tagung propagiert, an der ich teilnahm. Ehrengast: John Bolton.

In any proper banana republic they’d have at least the decency to put up a few front people between themselves and a board of enquiry…

Watching this as I ride on a bus through London, checking out the Sharia windmills

Just saying that "we had to go to war because the Israelis were going to do it anyway and we needed to protect our people from the fallout, in that sense this is a preventive war" - is a hell of a way to foster anti-jewish conspiracy theories.

Du bist gegen die massenhafte irreguläre Migration vor allem aus Syrien, stehst aber fest an der Seite beider Regime, die dafür verantwortlich waren. Willkommen bei der AfD.

2h prior to French carrier Charles de Gaulle entering Baltic Sea Swedish authorities reported fresh GPS-interference in her path The interference is centered at one, if not the, densest area of shipping in the world, Öresund north entry About 100 ship pass this 3km bottleneck/d

Wadephul bei X: „Ich bedaure den Irrtum im @heutejournal gestern. Die formelle Reisewarnung für die Golfstaaten besteht in der Tat seit dem 28. Februar. Seit Mitte Januar warnt @auswaertigesamt vor einer möglichen Eskalation & Einschränkungen im Flugverkehr. 1/2"

I’m just really very deeply worried that this Iran adventure might severely harm the credibility of the FIFA peace prize.

Stark. Raving. Mad.

Kommentare auf @zeit.de zeigen ein krasses Missverständnis der Abschreckung. "Wir sollen nur wieder bezahlen..." "Sie wollen uns über den Atomschlag nicht mitbestimmen lassen..." "Sie geben uns keine Sicherheitsgarantie, also ist das nichts wert..." Der Weg aus der Ahnungslosigkeit ist lang.

Not sure that’s the best perspective on this; these poor sods thought they’ll be home by Christmas…

Mein Kommentar zur historischen Rede von Emmanuel Macron über die nukleare Abschreckung www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...

‘Epic Fury’ - perhaps this one wouldn’t meet with quite so much ridicule if its moniker didn’t sound like a 90s direct-to-video action flick some studio schmuck ordered to cut the company taxes… www.war.gov/News/News-St...

Full text of the speech. The deployment of nuclear armed aircraft to other Europeans is quite something. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/03/0...

Over at X, my German colleague Ulrich Kühn has a less positive appraisal than I do of Macron's speech. I think his view will be shared in a significant part of non-France Europe. x.com/DrUlrichKueh...

Be thankful he didn’t send Hegseth or his golf cart.

“Zwar ist das Regime massiv erschüttert, aber es ist noch nicht gefallen. Und es hat jahrzehntelange Erfahrung darin, Krisen zu überstehen, Macht neu zu ordnen und Kontrolle zu sichern - ohne jede Rücksicht auf Verluste.”

We are two months into this year and all I can say is, it’s a good time to study International Relations and International Security. We’re seriously cooking at the moment. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Slowly but surely we’re approaching a point where Rutte’s answers will have to be x-rated for graphic masochistic language. Never expected my taxes to buy me S/m pørn from NATO HQ…

Joint declaration of President Macron and Chancellor Merz on closer Franco-German cooperation in the field of deterrence in response to the evolving threat landscape of 2 March 2026 www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/such...

I wonder*, had the mullahs just paid their fire insurance premium, might they now sit in this august company and discuss the ways of the world towards peace? Hum hum… *A lie. I don’t.

When you mix up your endless wars.

Trump “has given several rationales for why he’s gone into Iran,” Tom Nichols argues, “but in the end he seems to have settled on regime change ... I’m sorry to say that the track record of regime change operations make the bad outcomes more probable than the good outcomes.” theatln.tc/ISmrhNDy

I regularly receive requests about posting my videos on a privacy friendly and European alternative to YouTube. I am therefore happy to announce that my videos will now be available on PeerTube. You can find the channel here. muku.dk/c/wartalk/vi...

Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson also confirmed Sweden’s intention to take part in the discussions on broadening the nuclear deterrence programme, as per Macron’s speech. x.com/SwedishPM/st...

"Merzplaining" - I like. 'In this, the 70-year-old chancellor is not endearing himself to German voters, who traditionally like their politicians to be affable but not overly slick. Worse, Merz’s overconfidence has a tendency to backfire.'

5/ Mit Sicherheit ist mir als Generalist der deutsch-französischen Beziehungen auch einiges entgangen. Ich empfehle zum Thema nukleare Abschreckung vor allem bei @hfayet.bsky.social, @claudmajor.bsky.social und @brunotertrais.bsky.social mitzulesen.

Das war ein Meilenstein: Präsident Macron hat eine "vorgerückte" französische Abschreckung (dissuasion avancée) verkündet. Deutschland ist privilegierter und ambitioniertester Partner, andere europäische Länder ebenfalls dabei. Hauptpunkte 🧵

Not a proper market shock (yet), not enough for a TACO, on a par with the AI freakout last week. Team Trump could easily see this as a green light. to the extent people *are* nervous, it's notable Treasuries are a bit shaky my thing: as.ft.com/r/dd6edefc-6...

Coordinated with Macron - sometimes that Franco-German cooperation does work - Merz announces that France and Germany have set up a 'nuclear steering group' and that DE will participaty with conventional forces in French nuclear exercises.

All those of you wondering what President Macron's nuclear speech today is about - here's an excellent primer on the French deterrence system and doctrine. Let's raise the nuclear IQ (especially in Germany)! Source: www.defense.gouv.fr/sites/defaul...

Would likely set a precedent if Trump is allowed to get away with a four-weeks war without taking it to Congress *at all*. Will also not sit well with parts of his own base, regardless of the outcome…

Das halte ich für ausgesprochen kurzsichtig. Ist das das richtige Wort, ‘kurzsichtig’? Die vornehme Version von ‘dumm’? Dann meine ich ‘kurzsichtig’*. *spare me the BR in green ink; I’m already due for my weekly carpeting…

Word.

Also noteworthy how willingly Trump talks to *The Atlantic* now that the first US casualties are confirmed.

If what is left of the Iranian regime agrees to become subservient to the US under Trump then the war will end

On Feb. 5, Kerry and Ryan sat down with Alex Vatanka, Holly Dagres, and Naysan Rafati to discuss the crisis in Iran shaped by decades of repression, corruption, and economic strain. Why do protests keep returning and why does this moment feel different? Listen here: pod.link/682478916/e...

"When a political movement seeks to dismantle democratic guardrails, undermine elections, purge civil servants, and intimidate the free press, “both-sides” coverage becomes complicity." "We are living through an assault on democracy and a coordinated attack on the free press as an institution."

OFFS. When Iran tried to interefere in 2020, researchers caught them and called them out. Then the Benz-Weiss-Taibbi-Musk-Jordan-Trump axis labeled those researchers "censors" ... and set about defunding them and dismantling their organizations.