Standard caveats apply regarding late game win probability modeling, but the numbers (pulled from the other place) are a toss up: Go for 2: 0.475*0.0862 + 0.525*0.042 = 0.063 Kick XP: 0.95*0.0647+0.05*0.042 = 0.064 This assumes a 47.5% chance of a 2PT conversion, and a 95% chance of making the XP.

On the Eagles going for 2 down 9: The people saying this was an awful decision are clearly wrong. But I've never been comfortable with the argument that it's optimal because you "know sooner". Your opponent gets the same information. Why doesn't it benefit them? 1/

Deciding when to abandon a theme park line when the ride breaks down is a real life stopping problem. And paradoxically, the longer you wait the longer your expected future wait. 5 minutes in: maybe it’s an easy fix and they’ll start soon 25 minutes in: this doesn’t look like and easy fix

The Colts decision making when playing the Chiefs on the road:

Somebody tell Tony Romo that a field goals doesn’t win the game.

Do the opposite of what the opposing teams crowd wants you to do and avoid giving the ball to Patrick Mahomes are pretty good heuristics for 4th down decision making in the NFL.

Pace and efficiency trends in the NBA through the 1st 207 games. Pace slows down as the season progresses, but even accounting for that we're on track for the fastest pace in the play by play era.

Rolling WIn Probability and Scoring Margin of the Nuggets - Bulls game via dunksandthrees.com/games/22500248 Otherwise known as a visual representation of when the starters vs bench were playing.

If you need an infusion of joy today: We installed a drum kit in the PTFO studio. And convinced the GOAT — Bernard “Pretty” Purdie, age 83 — to come play 🐐⤵️ youtu.be/vhdw6lWCb9Y?...

This was a fun topic to dive into, in part because it allows for comparisons to other sports. The chart below is the key takeaway from the post: Calling a timeout does not appear to help teams trying to stop an extended scoring run from their opponents: 1/

If your team gives up a 5-0 run, you may be hoping your coach calls a timeout But does it actually help? @inpredict.bsky.social dove into the data: evollve.substack.com/p/dont-just-...

Tonight's recap through 8 games: 🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴

Shorten the field. Everybody gets six downs and you only need 5 for a 1st down.

🏐UC San Diego gets revenge in improbable fashion 🏐Double clutch performances in College of Charleston vs William & Mary 🏐Nebraska is the best team in our database Weekly recap⤵️ evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...

Got Shea Serrano’s “Expensive Basketball” - it’s great having a reason to buy an actual hard copy book at an actual book store. Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).

I like that the Falcons decided they won't kneel out the clock and go to OT.

I know that the broadcast clock isn’t official but….

no delay of game?

Deciding whether the Colts should let them score here has me doing the Larry David meme.

I run a frankly wonderful website called HockeyViz.com, to which you can subscribe at several different levels, each providing you with joy* and many charts about the NHL. You can subscribe at hockeyviz.com/subscribe, and this thread will tell you what you'll get.

I got bored and decided to see how many iconic songs I could name that begin with drums only. Spotify playlist: open.spotify.com/playlist/606...

Updated ACC projections -- Pitt is the frontrunner, but it may come down to beating Stanford a week from Friday!

The Sixers 1st four games of the season: stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...

If you want to get precise and calculate the logarithms, the chances of getting an extra OT in the NBA are the same as getting an extra 2.7 innings of baseball. 2.7 = -log2(0.15) Under the (possibly faulty) assumption that there is a 50% chance each inning that the game will end.

We are now in quadruple overtime territory. In the World Series. 0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3

Chances that an NBA game in overtime goes to an additional overtime: ~15% Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50% So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.

select <- dplyr::select

About a dozen lemons showed up scattered in our backyard and pool yesterday. We do not have a lemon tree. My most plausible theory at this point is that the neighbor’s kid got bored and…..just decided to start chucking lemons over the fence?

Double OT stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_li...

That Mathurin 3 gave me 2025 playoff flashbacks.

Week 7 Objective NFL Power Rankings As always, grain of salt for injured QBs and their opponents (SF? ARI? CAR? WAS?)

somehow, the live win probabilities returned: stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_li...

NHL betting market rankings (some would call them objective) are now live and updating daily. The current top 10:

Our Executive Director of Data, Mike Lynch (@sportinfo247.bsky.social), is hosting an AMA on r/NBA today! Have a question for Mike about Basketball Reference, Sports Reference in general, or anything hoops-related? Ask at the link below! 👇

baseball is the best preparation for death because it does not come with a clock that tells you when your suffering will end one way or the other

I recently learned about the "missing fundamental" auditory illusion. Apparently, your cell phone speaker isn't capable of playing low bass frequencies, even though you think you're hearing them (e.g. a typical male voice). 1/

I've seen two academic papers in two separate sports make the same mistake related to momentum: The evidence: Teams that have scored recently are more likely to score again Incorrect conclusion: This is evidence for momentum in sports

Open role with our Football/Media Data & Analytics teams at the NFL - please reach out if this seems like a good fit

believe in yourself like the strava run time prediction algorithm believes in you

Some good advice on the value of grappling with problems on your own, from the Feynman Lectures on Computation: "What one fool can do, so can another, and the fact that some other fool beat you to it shouldn't disturb you: you should get a kick out of having discovered something"

🚨new stat alert🚨 We've added points scored to our site! You can now see player points scored on their page, on the team pages, or in the Dig In tool! For example, Ana Burilović is the only player in the country to score 40+ points in a match so far this season! evollve.net/stats/ncaa/w...

"How is this a tie game?" A documentary on 2025 Indianapolis playoff basketball

🧵 for any stat-obsessed volleyball moms or dads (or students): I've created some code that will pull publicly available high school data and then use them to create a strength of schedule adjusted team ranking for your league (see thread). Example for Marymount (a top CA team):

I hate why I have spent part of this afternoon reading things Kaleb wrote, but if you ever needed an example of why so many people have been so effusive about his writing, a mission statement for what writing's supposed to be, or both, well, you could do a hell of a lot worse than this.

High School Volleyball stat report: Win probability chart Daughter's team probably played their best game of the season so far, winning in straight sets on the road. Not much difference between serve and receive success for this match. The serving team won 49.6% of points.

The Mercury came back from 20 down to beat the Lynx. It was the 6th most improbable comeback in the history of the WNBA playoffs.

With conference play getting underway this week for many leagues, we've put together projections for who will win each league! Here are the power conferences, starting with the ACC:

no, you spent your monday evening coding up a strength-of-schedule adjusted ranking system for your daughter's volleyball league