I wrote about my childhood friend Alexi Pretti. Please read it and share it and remember him as a human being. @theverge.com

That differentiation (finding a tangent line) and integration (calculating area under a curve) turned out to be inverses of each other is one of the cooler plot twists in the history of mathematics.

That was….not a good time for a false start.

Tell me more about “taking the points” after that Mendoza draw.

Dungy in shambles

Every Caleb Williams play

Saw Marty Supreme last weekend, and was inspired to do a comp of serving advantage across multiple sports. Tennis 🎾: it's an advantage to serve Volleyball 🏐: it's a disadvantage to serve Table Tennis 🏓: nearly 50/50, based on what limited data I was able to find

The Niners missing that extra point providing a self contained argument for why they should have gone for two.

Has anyone run numbers on when teams should let their opponent score? What’s the typical TD rate when you’ve got 1st and Goal on the 1?

Cool study comparing in-game win probability across multiple sports, and which sports stay within the reach the longest.

Great work everyone

I don't know if I've ever seen a pick 6 on the 1st play from scrimmage.

Bell’s theorem is amazing because it was like a perfectly executed judo move. It took Einstein’s original thought experiment, which was intended to illustrate the absurdity of QM, and instead showed you either have to accept: 1. God *does* play dice OR 2. “Spooky” action at a distance

It’s almost the 65th anniversary of The Great Rose Bowl Hoax, in which a group of CalTech students switched the Washington cheer team’s card system so that their cards spelled “CALTECH” instead of “HUSKIES”.

That was, quantifiably, one of the best slate of Christmas games since the NBA standardized the schedule to 5 games in 2008:

Playing around with rotation data prior to tomorrow's semi-final games, and thinking about new stats to add to @evollve next season. Here is Texas A&M's success rate by rotation, where rotation is specified by the rotation position of their setter Maddie Waak:

Latest data on 15+ point comebacks in the NBA (this includes last night's Spurs comeback over the Thunder). When a team has fallen behind by 15+ points this season, they've come back to win 13% of the time.

Here are our championship probabilities entering the tournament! Yes, Nebraska's chances are over 4 times as high as anyone else's

Week 13 Objective and Correct NFL Power Rankings 📈📈 HOU, DAL, CIN, CAR 📉📉 DET, KC, IND

Standard caveats apply regarding late game win probability modeling, but the numbers (pulled from the other place) are a toss up: Go for 2: 0.475*0.0862 + 0.525*0.042 = 0.063 Kick XP: 0.95*0.0647+0.05*0.042 = 0.064 This assumes a 47.5% chance of a 2PT conversion, and a 95% chance of making the XP.

On the Eagles going for 2 down 9: The people saying this was an awful decision are clearly wrong. But I've never been comfortable with the argument that it's optimal because you "know sooner". Your opponent gets the same information. Why doesn't it benefit them? 1/

Deciding when to abandon a theme park line when the ride breaks down is a real life stopping problem. And paradoxically, the longer you wait the longer your expected future wait. 5 minutes in: maybe it’s an easy fix and they’ll start soon 25 minutes in: this doesn’t look like and easy fix

The Colts decision making when playing the Chiefs on the road:

Somebody tell Tony Romo that a field goals doesn’t win the game.

Do the opposite of what the opposing teams crowd wants you to do and avoid giving the ball to Patrick Mahomes are pretty good heuristics for 4th down decision making in the NFL.

Pace and efficiency trends in the NBA through the 1st 207 games. Pace slows down as the season progresses, but even accounting for that we're on track for the fastest pace in the play by play era.

Rolling WIn Probability and Scoring Margin of the Nuggets - Bulls game via dunksandthrees.com/games/22500248 Otherwise known as a visual representation of when the starters vs bench were playing.

If you need an infusion of joy today: We installed a drum kit in the PTFO studio. And convinced the GOAT — Bernard “Pretty” Purdie, age 83 — to come play 🐐⤵️ youtu.be/vhdw6lWCb9Y?...

This was a fun topic to dive into, in part because it allows for comparisons to other sports. The chart below is the key takeaway from the post: Calling a timeout does not appear to help teams trying to stop an extended scoring run from their opponents: 1/

If your team gives up a 5-0 run, you may be hoping your coach calls a timeout But does it actually help? @inpredict.bsky.social dove into the data: evollve.substack.com/p/dont-just-...

Tonight's recap through 8 games: 🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴

Shorten the field. Everybody gets six downs and you only need 5 for a 1st down.

🏐UC San Diego gets revenge in improbable fashion 🏐Double clutch performances in College of Charleston vs William & Mary 🏐Nebraska is the best team in our database Weekly recap⤵️ evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...

Got Shea Serrano’s “Expensive Basketball” - it’s great having a reason to buy an actual hard copy book at an actual book store. Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).

I like that the Falcons decided they won't kneel out the clock and go to OT.

I know that the broadcast clock isn’t official but….

no delay of game?

Deciding whether the Colts should let them score here has me doing the Larry David meme.

I run a frankly wonderful website called HockeyViz.com, to which you can subscribe at several different levels, each providing you with joy* and many charts about the NHL. You can subscribe at hockeyviz.com/subscribe, and this thread will tell you what you'll get.

I got bored and decided to see how many iconic songs I could name that begin with drums only. Spotify playlist: open.spotify.com/playlist/606...

Updated ACC projections -- Pitt is the frontrunner, but it may come down to beating Stanford a week from Friday!

The Sixers 1st four games of the season: stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...

If you want to get precise and calculate the logarithms, the chances of getting an extra OT in the NBA are the same as getting an extra 2.7 innings of baseball. 2.7 = -log2(0.15) Under the (possibly faulty) assumption that there is a 50% chance each inning that the game will end.

We are now in quadruple overtime territory. In the World Series. 0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3

Chances that an NBA game in overtime goes to an additional overtime: ~15% Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50% So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.

select <- dplyr::select

About a dozen lemons showed up scattered in our backyard and pool yesterday. We do not have a lemon tree. My most plausible theory at this point is that the neighbor’s kid got bored and…..just decided to start chucking lemons over the fence?

Double OT stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_li...