Tough to really gauge, but entering in the timings, scores, odds, etc, pro-football-reference.com has:
- first-and-goal from the 1: 60.7% win expectancy
- second-and-goal from the 1: 56.6% win expectancy
- Bucs having first-and-10 from the 35 after a first-down Pats TD: 56.7% Pats win expectancy
add a skeleton here at some point
about 3 hours ago