I've had some questions about why we still have the Chiefs playoff odds so high at 61%. Who gets kicked out if they make it? Here are the playoff odds ONLY in sims where the Chiefs make it in. DEN 97% NE 95% IND 93% BUF 90% BAL 65% JAX 54% PIT 44% LAC 38% HOU 19% ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...

Typo by me! Bengals are 3-7.

Congratulations to the Bengals, who made it to the bottom. I wasn't sure this week's game with the Steelers was bad enough, but the Bengals now have the worst defensive DVOA ever measured (through 10 games). Yes, the 2012 Colts made the playoffs despite this! Will likely write about this soon.

Interesting split. RB success rate for Jonathan Taylor Weeks 1-5: 52% Weeks 6-10: 64% (This is the RB success rate that uses slightly lower baselines than normal success rate.)

Week 11 Quick Reads. Shedeur Sanders has almost the worst game in the long history of bad Browns quarterbacking, Bryce Young has the best game of his career, and more on the best and worst players of Week 11 by DYAR. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-11-...

DVOA playoff odds now updated. Rams are now our SB favorites and have a 1.5% chance of earning the No. 1 pick. Thanks Atlanta! A team currently not in the playoffs wins the Super Bowl in over 15% of our simulations. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...

We can certainly have an interesting discussion about just how predictive special teams are. Rams are No. 2 on offense and defense. Seahawks moved into first place in defense too. Fifth on offense.

DVOA is now updated at @ftnfantasy.com Seahawks remain No. 1 but with a smaller gap between them and the No. 2 Rams. Without special teams, Rams would be first. Seahawks had a 55% PGWE for this week's loss. Both teams had 36% DVOA for the game. ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...

"The Firebaugh Rose"

Mike Tanier @miketanier.bsky.social is finally back and we'll be talking all about the big Week 11 in the NFL in 15 minutes! Come join us at 11am Eastern. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ve8U...

Fun with DVOA in this topsy-turvy year. Patriots are the second-lowest 9-2 team ever by DVOA (behind 2022 Vikings) Bears are the second-lowest 7-3 team ever by DVOA (behind 1986 Chiefs) Panthers are the second-lowest 6-5 team ever by DVOA (behind 2016 Texans)

Tom Flores :: Mike Macdonald John Madden :: Pete Carroll Cliff Branch :: JSN Ron Jaworski :: less mobile Josh Allen?

Jim Plunkett vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, Week 12 of 1980 10-of-36, 237 yards, 2 interceptions, 8 sacks A few weeks later, he beat them in the Super Bowl

On one hand, nobody trusts Sam Darnold in the playoffs at this point. On the other hand, I do wonder what modern social media would have written about Jim Plunkett, a similar highly-drafted failure, entering the 1980 playoffs.

I know it’s windy but the field goal might make more sense here.

The problem tonight isn't the Lions going for it. It's the Lions failing when they go for it.

I don't know where this defensive performance was for the Eagles in the first half of this season but the last two weeks have been outstanding.

I mean, I like fun celebrations! But if they're going to throw the flags, don't cost your team points! I hate celebration penalties but they aren't getting rid of them so you have to live with them.

I have an idea for celebrations. Just spike the ball tastefully and move on.

Looks like the Lions found Adoree' Jackson.

Gibbs would have gotten fourth-and-1 but that was fourth-and-1-and-a-half.

Here's the thing about the "problems" the Eagles are having on offense. 2024 regular-season DVOA with Hurts healthy: 8.7% (9th) 2025 DVOA: 11.3% (8th)

Lions can not lose a guard. That's bad.

they used to make real soundtracks for a movie

One thing that's fascinating to me is that when NFL free agency starts, so many contracts get signed immediately. MLB free agency has been going for over a week and almost nothing has happened!

For those curious... DVOA changes will change the odds, but based on last week's simulations, with today's results we end up with the Chiefs having a 61% chance of making the playoffs.

I look forward to Bari Weiss pulling this first 60 Minutes story off the air in the middle of the broadcast.

This 60 Minutes Chessboxing story better have some Wu-Tang in it.

It's hilarious when people think I'm a Chiefs fan. Yeah... no.

This again from Friday. As a Patriots fan, a Chiefs win would have been better, but a Broncos win certainly makes the AFC spicy. Can the Chiefs actually get to the playoffs? We'll see!

Looking forward to the Chiefs being road favorites in the playoffs three times.

Of course this record used to belong to Drew Bledsoe. Those mid-90s Patriots... so much passing!

Seahawks-Rams was great, let's do it again in a couple weeks.

Sam, throw the ball. Throw it. Throw it Sam. THROW IT.

Nobody else in the league has more than 5.

Riley Moss now has 9 DPI flags this year.

It won't be in your records, but I believe it's this 1944 game between the Bears and Eagles. 22 penalties for Chicago, 1 for Philadelphia. www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/19...

I'll have to go back through my records for the biggest gap in penalties but as far as accepted penalties, the Cardinals have 17 and the 49ers have ONE.

I'm going to guess that the models say the Seahawks should have gone for fourth-and-3 on their own 20. How many more possessions are you going to have?

We all looked at Sam Darnold's numbers all year and said "OK, OK, it's so hard to believe this, when does he have that game where he turns back into a pumpkin, what happens in the playoffs?" And he didn't even wait for the playoffs.

2012 Ravens finished the regular season 1-4 and won it all!

It feels like the Rams are winning because of interceptions and red zone issues but they are also outgaining the Seahawks on average, 5.5 to 4.9 yards.

If he doesn't get another sack today, Myles Garrett will have 15 sacks with 7 games left. He may break the record.

The Rams defense appears to own Sam Darnold.

Rams defense hardcore in the red zone today and that's why they're leading at halftime.

Even Brandon Browner thinks that Riley Moss is getting a little grabby out there.

Wild to see Seattle defense get pushed around like on that long fourth-and-1 run.

Can't make a linebacker cover Tetairoa McMillan in the red zone like that.

Chicago is 7-3 with negative point differential.

The receiver stopped. He stopped the route. Not a bad throw by Jameis.