Fun Super Bowl preview tidbit. Sam Darnold led the NFL with 57.1% DVOA on PA passes. Even when he declined in the 2H of the season, PA performance barely dropped. Since Week 10, the defense with the best DVOA against PA passes? New England at -36.4%, including 5 picks when no other team > 3.

In case you missed this earlier.

Wish Dion himself was nominated but this is a good list!

You know it Tom!

The Tonight Show doesn't post on Bluesky but there's a post on the other site... Tom Brady mentioned DVOA last night when Kendall Jenner called him on the show to ask who she should pick in Super Bowl LX. Absolutely crazy.

The Patriots and Seahawks defenders most likely to make a big play, based on Defeats this season. Patriots Jones 23 Spillane 19 Landry 17 Chaisson 16 Davis 16 Seahawks Jones 27 Williams 25 Lawrence 23 Thomas 21 Emmanwori 19

What on earth goes into "First Lady rankings?"

New Aggressiveness Index numbers for 2025: the most aggressive coaches on fourth down compared to a baseline of actual coach decisions. Leaguewide was up 17% this year. Campbell, Johnson, McDermott on top. Macdonald very low! ftnfantasy.com/nfl/most-agg...

This is the first year I remember the Pro Football Hall of Fame process leaking this early.

The Patriots and Seahawks were two of the least penalized teams in the league this year. They were particularly low in what I call "procedure" penalties (as opposed to "judgment call" penalties). That means stuff like false starts, offsides, delay of game, illegal formation.

How the Super Bowl QBs respond to heat 🌡️

New at @ftnfantasy.com from @brykno.bsky.social. One of our favorite annual articles, the 2025 All-Keep Choppin' Wood team. The players that hurt their teams most on and off the field, highlighted by Shedeur Sanders, Brandon Aiyuk, and Marshon Lattimore. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2025-all...

Measles!

I know it is a bit self-serving to point this out, but this panel could use some younger voices.

Unlike the AP awards committee, I don’t think any of us young analytics whippersnappers are on the HOF committee yet unless you count Mike Sando, and I don’t remember right now if he is or not.

Never good when your team is featured in a What Not To Do PR Case Study.

Repost for those who might have missed this in the morning.

With Super Bowl LX coming up, here's a throwback to my ESPN piece that ranks all 59 champions based on DVOA including the playoffs. (PFR SRS for pre-1978) www.espn.com/nfl/insider/...

My thoughts exactly.

Here's my annual Super Bowl pre-preview, emptying the notebook with early stats thoughts -- Darnold struggles against the blitz -- Seahawks destroy quick game throws -- Pats problems in short yardage and more. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/super-bo...

If the Seahawks lose Super Bowl LX, they will be the second-highest regular-season DVOA team to lose the Super Bowl. The current top 5: 2007 Patriots 2023 49ers 1983 Redskins 1997 Packers 2013 Broncos

Hey! I mixed up weighted and total DVOA in my commentary yesterday! This is fixed now, with the Patriots properly listed as second in WEIGHTED DVOA. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-21-...

People have pointed out that this graphic predicts a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl. But it doesn’t. The player closest to the trophy is Malik Nabers. It predicted a Giants-Patriots Super Bowl.

Super Bowl LX = DVOA's top 2 teams 😤 @aaronschatz.com's Week 21 ratings put Pats/Seahawks #1-2 in weighted DVOA 🏆 ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-21-...

Let me be the 7,594th person on your feed to say this is insane. There has to be a better AFC quarterback who is willing to go to San Francisco for a couple days.

The Seahawks special teams were good at everything this season, but especially kickoff coverage and kick/punt returns. Dickson started slow but has gotten progressively better punting.

Reposting. NE offense, week-to-week graph. Struggled in recent weeks even after accounting for schedule, but this does not adjust for the snow in 2H Denver.

I deleted the Patriots week-to-week graphics which showed the Seattle opponents by accident. Hold on, new ones incoming.

I wanted to share the week-to-week graphics on here. First, Seahawks offense. They had their best game in quite a while against the Rams.

Seahawks in all-time company 😤

New England's regular-season DVOA of 10.6% ranks 44th out of 52 SB teams since 2000. However, their regular-season end weighted DVOA of 23.8% ranks 29th out of 52 SB teams since 2000. More normal. (Seahawks: 2nd in both behind 2007 Patriots)

I wrote in this ESPN piece about Sam Darnold's decline in the second half of the year (reversed yesterday) and the Patriots schedule. You know who had really easy schedules? The 1970 Colts and the 1972 Dolphins. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Join me and @miketanier.bsky.social as we discuss the conference championship games! Live at 11am Eastern. www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQZ5...

New Quick Reads with DYAR numbers from the CCGs, plus a look at the best combined QB games in the playoffs since 1978. (Stafford and Darnold come out third, can you guess which game is first?) ftnfantasy.com/nfl/conferen...

DVOA commentary and new updated ratings. Super Bowl LX has the two best teams right now based on weighted DVOA, but the Seahawks are historically good, and the Patriots are just very good. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-21-...

When we jump to conclusions next year after the first week of the season, remember that both the Patriots and the Seahawks lost in Week 1 this year.

ESPN had it as a go.

Notice that Payton regrets the play call rather than the decision to go for it.

Here's where the Seahawks stand among the top teams in DVOA history, including the playoffs. Regular-season ratings are also included.

This makes sense for this weird season where good teams had bad records, bad teams had good records, and everything went topsy-turvy.

The difference for the Patriots between weighted DVOA (ignoring early-season games) and total DVOA is huge. Because of this, the playoff odds simulation gives us SEAHAWKS 59.6%. If we didn't weight to recent games, it would be Seahawks 73.9%.

Here are your basic numbers for the CCGs. DVOA LAR 45% SEA 36% NE 22% DEN -14% PGWE Patriots 84% Seahawks 35% I would have expected both games to be closer to 50-50.

Sam Darnold really is Jim Plunkett.

Great moments in crowd noise, 1985. youtu.be/YHtTmO3Selc?...

For a long time this year, DVOA had the Seahawks rated higher than other advanced metrics based on EPA. I'm feeling pretty good about that right now.

Great season for the Rams, congratulations Seahawks fans, we'll see you in Super Bowl LX! Sam Darnold did not, in fact, turn back into a pumpkin like everyone expected!

Klint Kubiak: Assistant Coach of the Year finalist.

McVay made a big mistake calling a timeout instead of just throwing the challenge flag.

Don't like taking a timeout there in case you need it in the final minute for a comeback.

It's a stupid penalty and it was stupid to draw the penalty.