Surprisingly, the two early leaders in Defeats are DBs. 13: D.James LAC 12: A.Phillips NYG 11: M.Crosby LV and M.Garrett CLE 10: J.Lewis JAX, Q.Walker GB, F.Warner SF, Q.Williams (DL) NYJ Defeats combine TFLs, TOs, and plays to prevent 3/4 down conversion.

New at @ftnfantasy.com is @brykno.bsky.social on the month of crazy special teams: new k-ball rules, new kickoff rules, and tons of blocks. ($) ftnfantasy.com/nfl/the-mont...

1) You will never find a rule that appeals to everyone. 2) Ties are fine.

Matt LeFleur yesterday: "I don't know where all the DVOA nerds are out there... but [Dallas] is one of the best offenses in the league..." We're right here! www.youtube.com/live/F3n7LS_...

Free! Free! Free week!

I agree with this. I think the Ravens will go to the playoffs as long as Lamar Jackson is back by Week 8 and plays the final 10 games of the season. As Bryan points out, their schedule was very front-loaded.

Sorry, this should be 2 out of 14, because it is 0 out of 3 special teams.

Fun with fumble recovery luck: The Jets have recovered only 3 of the 14 fumbles in their games. 2 of 6 offense 0 of 5 defense 1 of 3 special teams

New DVOA commentary is here. Seattle Seahawks remain No. 1 followed by the Lions and Rams. How are the 4-0 Eagles only 12th in DVOA with ratings lower than last season? ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-4-d...

Toughest remaining schedule based on current DVOA ratings: Vikings, Texans, Cardinals, Rams, Chiefs Easiest remaining schedule based on current DVOA ratings: Patriots, Saints, Browns, Jets, Bills

DVOA Playoff Odds are now updated. Ravens, Giants, and Dolphins are all adjusted for major injuries. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...

Week 4 Quick Reads article is now updated with Monday Night Football. Surprisingly good game for Justin Fields in a loss! ($) ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-4-q...

Miami had 58% Post-Game Win Expectancy against the Jets, mostly because the Jets had 16 penalties (including declined and offsetting). If the penalties were equal, Miami would have had just 26% PGWE.

Worst Week 4 DYAR Performers 30. Justin Herbert -137 29. Joe Flacco -136 28. Cam Ward -88 27. Carson Wentz -86 26. Caleb Williams -69 ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-4-q...

I don't know what happened to Jake Browning's accuracy from two years ago.

Minkah Fitzpatrick (29) gets surprisingly lost here.

Looked like the Bengals played man on that third-and-goal which left things open for the Nix scramble TD!

ESPN had that fourth down as a toss-up.

That was a fast first quarter!

One of the dilemmas of analytics is that the pass is more efficient but the run is more badass. Oh, but fumbling is bad.

Miami ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and the Jets are like, nah, we'll just run it down their throats, that works too.

Why yes, that was totally DPI on Brandon Stephens.

Monday Night Football Breakdown 🏟️ Bengals @ Broncos Powered by StatsHub: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/stats

Yeah, the Packers need more takeaways. They have one forced fumble, recovered by the offense. They have 17 PDs, which suggests 3 INTs, which still isn't as many as a top defense should have.

However, the Jaguars are 13th in success rate on defense. Their defense has definitely improved even if the takeaways regress.

I was leader of the Jaguars bandwagon in the preseason but we should note about their 13 takeaways: 1) They've recovered 4 of 5 defensive fumbles. 2) In general, 20% of PDs will become INTs. The Jaguars have 27 PDs and 9 INTs which is 33%. Some regression to the mean is coming.

I've adjusted the Baltimore defensive projection part of the DAVE ratings. There are just so many injuries, there's no way this is the defense we expected before the season. (Did the same for SF because of Bosa, and the NYG offense because of Nabers.)

I should give proper attribution, in that I discovered this by using pro-football-reference.com Stathead.

Puka Nacua's 42 receptions are tied for the most ever through four team games along with Michael Thomas in 2018 and Cooper Kupp in 2022.

Charles Pierce wrote about his hometown, and the place where I live now, Worcester MA. defector.com/a-million-li...

New Quick Reads looking at the best and worst players by DYAR in Week 4 as well as the best players so far this year. Some wacky splits on Carson Wentz throwing left vs. right and short vs. deep this week. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-4-q...

Come join me and @miketanier.bsky.social now to discuss Week 4! www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTcf...

DVOA playoff odds are now updated. Our system loves the Bills this year and now gives them a 25% chance of winning the whole enchilada. Lions are second. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...

Here's an update on a table from last night. The Cowboys and the worst pass defenses in DVOA history. The 2023 Broncos significantly turned things around after the first few weeks, so the Cowboys do have hope. DVOA now updated for Week 4: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...

Packers need some clock management lessons.

What a performance by Dak Prescott tonight.

Incredible catch by George Pickens with two defenders RIGHT THERE.

StatsHub: NFL player stats, filters, exclusive metrics. All in one spot! 📊💥 ftnfantasy.com/nfl/stats

I'm going against Josh Jacobs in fantasy tonight so go ahead and keep throwing at the goal line, Packers.

60.1% pass defense going into tomorrow, which would be 22nd worst since 1978 through 3 games.

The Cowboys defense is bad, historical perspective.

Worst defense in the league by DVOA so far. Just awful against the pass.

Two Packers wide open at the same time dots

Ravens defense is definitely missing the guys they are missing.

Steve Spagnuolo is eating Lamar Jackson alive. The coverage is great and the pressure is there.

I think any discussion of Josh and Lamar being equals with Mahomes reflects the improvement of Josh and Lamar more than any decline from Mahomes.

Clearly they needed Thomas to be in that commercial where Lawrence and Hunter are like best friends.

Useful stat with Ravens back on offense. Last year KC led all defenses in "failed scrambles," forcing the opposing QB to scramble but not getting a successful amount of yardage. (SF was last.)

I'm not watching SF-JAX but did the Jaguars really just get a delay of game on third-and-1 and then followed it up with a timeout?

Ronnie Stanley return is questionable? That's not good for the Ravens.