NFL Wild Card DVOA Breakdown 🏟️ Packers @ Bears

Here are links to all 5 DVOA playoff previews (Texans-Steelers will run Sunday or Monday) by me and @brykno.bsky.social: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/packers-... ftnfantasy.com/nfl/rams-vs-... ftnfantasy.com/nfl/49ers-vs... ftnfantasy.com/nfl/bills-vs... ftnfantasy.com/nfl/chargers...

Here's our last of the Sunday playoff previews, looking at Chargers-Patriots. A lot of trends here with certain units declining and improving in the second half of the year. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/chargers...

Tua. 👀

Best individual games of 2025 by DVOA Wk 7 IND 38-24 over LAC 102% Wk 13 CHI 31-3 over CLE 95% Wk 10 MIA 30-13 over BUF 94% Wk 5 HOU 44-10 over BAL 93% Wk 18 NE 38-10 over MIA 92% Wk 2 DET 52-21 over CHI 91%

I look forward to Josh Allen lining up at defensive tackle to stop the run.

Worcester represent. The music on the video is from MGMT from Wesleyan so it's a whole New England Division III celebration.

Here's my first AFC playoff preview, looking at some interesting stat splits for the Jaguars-Bills game on Sunday. Check out the Jaguars' last six weeks on the week-to-week graph! ftnfantasy.com/nfl/bills-vs...

Anybody remember Jon-Erik Hexum? That was my first thought when I saw this hire.

Folks, I'm going to guess Randy Moss on biathalon is Randy Moss the sports reporter from Arkansas, not Randy Moss the former NFL player. 😄

On one side of the ball, two fantastic units and great coaches. On the other side, Keystone Cops vs. backups who just got off the couch. @brykno.bsky.social uses stats from @ftnfantasy.com StatsHub to preview 49ers-Eagles. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/49ers-vs...

Escape from Los Angeles.

Fewest Screen Passes, 2025: ➡️ Eagles: 28-of-29, 110 yards ➡️ Texans: 29-of-30, 133 yards ➡️ Patriots: 31-of-33, 243 yards ➡️ Colts: 29-of-33, 221 yards ➡️ Chargers: 30-of-33, 146 yards Find out what else the Eagles offense DOESN'T do ⬇️⬇️ miketanier.substack.com/p/things-the...

This article from The Atlantic is incredible, as the author tried to fill in for all the government functions Trump has gotten rid of. Can you predict the weather, inspect your own milk, and track consumer prices on your own? No. No, you can't. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...

Sometimes the ball just won’t let go

So this is super cool — I'm writing the offseason previews for every NFL team with all of the non-playoff teams up now at @yahoosports.bsky.social

In case you missed this first playoff preview earlier today. Three more are on the way tomorrow.

Our second playoff preview from @brykno.bsky.social looks at the Packers and Bears, Part III. The Bears defense is bad, but is it as bad as the Packers defense since losing Micah Parsons? ftnfantasy.com/nfl/packers-...

Come join me and @miketanier.bsky.social to preview the Wild-Card Round and talk coaching carousel in the NFL. www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNT5...

I'm a little surprised after the Dolphins showed life in the second half of the season and didn't quit on McDaniel. Every team that needs an offensive coordinator will now begin slobbering over the concept of a McDaniel hire.

It can't be a coincidence that Cardi B scheduled Saturday Night Love for the weekend before the conference championships and the Super Bowl... just in case. pitchfork.com/news/geese-t...

Fun thing I learned putting together week-to-week graphics: Broncos blue and Seahawks blue have the same hex codes.

The first of six free DVOA game previews using stats from the @ftnfantasy.com StatsHub. @brykno.bsky.social asks how the hell the Panthers can upset the Rams for a second time when everything in the stats points to Los Angeles. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/rams-vs-...

I want to share the Rams week-to-week graph. The Rams ended up with a week-to-week variance of just 4.2% DVOA, which is the sixth-lowest variance of any team since 1978. Even when they didn't seem consistent, like in the first half of Cardinals Week 18, the game ended up the same as the others.

I was worried this table would mostly be teams that sat starters at the end of the year, but it is not. Most of these teams also failed in the playoffs. 1990 Giants had to get used to Hostetler at QB. 2008 Cardinals had a surprising playoff run.

Tonight on @cbsnews.com: WHEELS OF TERROR: How American extremists are using cars to put our brave and dedicated first responders in danger.

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”

I just noticed this, but the 2025 Patriots have the biggest gap between total and weighted DVOA of any playoff team since 1978. Weighted DVOA lowers the weight of earlier games to get a better idea of how well teams are playing now. (1/2)

Chasing the Lombardi 🏈

I don't think I've run this one yet on social media. Here are the worst DVOA teams to make the playoffs. 5 of the bottom 6 (not counting Carolina) won their first playoff game! None got past the Divisional Round.

There's one surprising team on the list of the teams with the FEWEST defeats. CIN 146, SF 148, ARI 150, CHI 151, CAR 152, PHI 157, NYJ 160, KC 162, DAL 162 Philadelphia?!?!

Also re: Defeats and the idea that they go to players on bad teams. The team leader in defeats was Seattle with 215. CLE 214, MIN 211, PIT 200, ATL 197, HOU 195

A number of people have pointed out that these players are on bad teams, so they face more defensive plays. So instead I looked at defeats as a percentage of how many offensive plays your team faced. List is very similar. Garrett 5.1% Brooks 4.2% Crosby 4.1% Burns 3.9% Anderson 3.7% Wilson 3.7%

We've got the 2025 JOE THOMAS DRAFT from @brykno.bsky.social. What if the 14 playoff teams could draft a player from the teams that didn't make the playoffs? Which superstars might we see in January? Always a fun column! ftnfantasy.com/nfl/myles-ga...

Air yards have a lot of impact on finding open receivers. That's why it's insane that Drake Maye threw to open receivers over 55% of the time while being second in ADOT. I suppose that easy schedule helped after all.

The Harbaugh firing is so important that my phone sent me a Washington Post notification for it. (I don't subscribe to the Post anymore but I still get notifications for major news.)

Given his ability to manufacture pressure with blitzes, the Baltimore roster would be amazing for Brian Flores. I don't know them personally but Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa do not seem like similar dudes.

Jamel Dean had a great season.

Like Andy Reid when he left the Eagles, this is a good coach who needs a change of scenery.

Drake Maye looking to run as clean as the Greatest Show on Turf 😤

Final 2025 leaders in Defeats: TO, TFL, and plays to prevent 3/4 down conversion. 42 M.Garrett CLE 36 J.Brooks MIA, M.Crosby LV 33 B.Burns NYG 32 E.Wilson MIN 31 D.White LV 30 W.Anderson HOU 29 D.Davis NO, A.Phillips NYG 28 F.Oluokun JAX, J.Simmons TEN, A.Van Ginkel MIN

Did you miss the final 2025 regular-season commentary yesterday?

Aikman is one of the best commentators (despite his positions on analytics) and Brady was much improved this year. Nonetheless, we really need to keep announcers and executives separate. If Brady and Aikman want to be executives, there are plenty of other ex-players to be commentators.

Year-End Quick Reads summary here, all the best and worst players by DYAR. Puka Nacua sets an all-time record for DYAR by a WR when you add in his rushing value! ftnfantasy.com/nfl/nacuas-r...

DVOA playoff odds are now updated! We have the Seahawks as our SB favorites with a 15.4% chance of the Super Bowl XLVIII rematch with the Denver Broncos. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...

Fourth-worst defensive DVOA since 1978.

I wake up every morning now expecting to hear that we have bombed Copenhagen.

Final regular-season DVOA ratings and commentary! -- Updated DAVE for playoff teams adjusted for Week 18 -- Seattle and the Rams dominate vs. Top 10 schedules -- Tons of historical tables ftnfantasy.com/nfl/final-20...

More fun 2025 facts. The Chiefs went 6-11 despite outscoring opponents by 34 points. They had the sixth-biggest underperformance since 1970 by comparing wins to Pythagorean wins (based on points scored and allowed).

I'm sorry for harping on this, but EPA does *not* show that Stafford and Maye had the same schedule strength this year. The average EPA/dropback for the 17 pass defenses faced by the Rams was .061 (14th hardest). The average for the pass defenses faced by the Patriots was .104 (easiest).