If the Playoffs Started Today! NFC: 1. Eagles (over LAR via H2H) 2. Rams 3. Bears 4. Buccaneers 5. Seahawks 6. Packers 7. 49ers 8. Lions 9. Panthers 10. Vikings 11. Cowboys 12. Cardinals (over ATL via conf) 13. Falcons 14. Commanders 15. Saints 16. Giants

That is up there with the worst DPI's I've ever seen.

Jacoby Brissett set a regular season completion record against the 49ers, but he only tied the all-time record if you include the playoffs -- Ben Roethlisberger had 57 against the Browns in the 2020 season, as well.

If the Eagles win tonight, they'll be first in the NFC, while the Lions will be OUT of the playoff picture, the 49ers replacing them. If the Lions win, they will be second in the NFC, the Rams will be first, and the Eagles will be third.

The 49ers, finally, have a 20-yard run this season.

This is the first time the 49ers have had 25 points in the first half since Brock Purdy's first start in 2022, against the Buccaneers. www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/20...

They cut off Eddy Pinero's toe and grafted it to Brock Purdy. I think that's the only explanation.

The updated playoff picture after the early window of games! How to read this: any seed still in GREEN can still be won by that team. A RED X means that a team has been eliminated from that seed. ...It's early.

With their loss, the Tennessee Titans are ELIMINATED from the AFC South race. They are the first team to be knocked out of a division this year.

With their loss, the New York Giants are ELIMINATED from the top two seeds in the NFC. They are the first team to be eliminated from a seed in 2025.

With the Chargers' loss, the Raiders will NOT be eliminated from the AFC West this week. And the Jets and Browns will stay alive for the #1 seed in the AFC.

JJ McCarthy's DVOA throwing to his left: -25.8% JJ McCarthy's DVOA throwing anywhere else: 13.8%

The Titans' playoff scenarios are updated with Washington's loss -- the five-team win scenario is out. They're still out of the AFC South race with a loss, though.

With the overtime win, the Miami Dolphins will NOT be eliminated from the #1 seed this week.

The fact that Wagner can't move and Luvu can't break off blocks is not great for stopping Achane.

In terms of VOA (so not adjusting for defense): QB1 this season: Whoever is Playing Miami: 26.7% QB2 this season: Whoever is Playing Washington: 26.5% Enjoy Dolphins-Commanders!

In case you missed me this week! We looked at red zone DVOA, and how the Eagles lead the league in red zone touchdown percentage despite being only above average actually inside the red zone! ftnfantasy.com/nfl/why-are-...

New @ftnfantasy.com content from @brykno.bsky.social looking at the Eagles in the red zone. Why aren't they at the top of DVOA when they score so many red zone TDs? Because they are more smart than they are efficient. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/why-are-...

Updated scenarios after Thursday Night Football, with the Jets and Titans taking steps closer towards various eliminations with the Patriots coming out on top...

Nothing makes a rather...unappetizing Thursday Night Football matchup better than the DVOA Discord. Sometimes, you need a little group therapy to walk through a Justin Fields start. discord.gg/Rw47FKesa2

We'll be missing Mike Tanier again from today's podcast but we've got both @brykno.bsky.social and @danpizzuta.bsky.social sitting in to preview a huge Week 11. Come join us at 11am Eastern! www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjRy...

The Giants are the fun team to do scenarios for right now because most long-shot scenarios are "hey, have you tried winning more games?" Most teams are within striking range of the playoffs if they just stop doing stupid things, like this one for the Browns. v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...

Brian Daboll is gone, Russell Wilson has been pushed to the third string, and the New York Giants are sitting at a 0.1% in FTN's playoff odds. Does the comeback start here?! No. But it COULD! Like, mathematically speaking!

New free column on @ftnfantasy.com from @brykno.bsky.social looks at quarterback success rate and how different QBs are having successes and failures this year. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/jones-st...

Week 11 Elimination Scenario thread! As of the end of Week 10, all 32 teams can still win any playoff seed -- the Saints avoided losing HFA this week with their loss. That will probably end this week, as multiple teams could be knocked out of divisional contention! Let's go through them all.

Week 11 Elimination Scenario thread! As of the end of Week 10, all 32 teams can still win any playoff seed -- the Saints avoided losing HFA this week with their loss. That will probably end this week, as multiple teams could be knocked out of divisional contention! Let's go through them all.

Never seen an 'incorrect' punt call that high.

I mean, going for it on 4th like that was bold....but maybe a bit insanely so.

Every aspect of that play was embarrassing. A shotgun run, the formation lined up wrong, the effort, the fail of a block..

An event has occurred in the ballgame!

This is the 19th scoreless first half since the 2002 realignment. I think I would agree that this is one of the better ones, but man. Ppoooiiiinnntss....

Mike Kafka, interim Giants coach -- another Mike. The crisis continues.

Bengals have to go 6-2 to have a greater than 50% chance of making the playoffs, while 5-3 gives them at least an outside chance. Probably means you need Flacco to beat one of the Steelers/Patriots duo over the next two weeks to make it worth bringing Burrow back on a bad toe.

Not going to lie, I didn't have Brian Daboll being fired today on my bingo card. I mean, eventually, sure, but today?

Mike's been put on a bus, so I'm glad to sit in.

Another Schatz and Tanier podcast at 11am Eastern, this time again with @brykno.bsky.social sitting in for Mike. Let's talk about the wild Bucs-Patriots game and the super-strong top of the NFC! See you at 11. www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUIq...

We're all expecting the Chiefs to make the playoffs, and they probably will when all is said and done. That being said, they've lost the tiebreaker to the #6 and #7 seeds and are behind to the #5 seed. If they lose this week, they won't be in control of their playoff fate, either...

The Titans and Raiders could get eliminated from their division races next week. No one with a complete elimination scenario just yet.

If the Playoffs Started Today! AFC: 1. Colts (over DEN/NE via conference record) 2. Broncos (over NE via conference record) 3. Patriots 4. Steelers 5. Chargers 6. Bills 7. Jaguars (over KC via head-to-head) That IND/DEN/NE race may come down to the wire. Very 2000s.

Matthew Stafford's record: 115-115-1 Eli Manning's record: 117-117

Matthew Stafford has now thrown at least four touchdown passes in three straight games. Here's every such streak since the merger:

Tyler Shough is the first Saints rookie QB to win a game since Dave Wilson in 1981.

With their win over Carolina, the New Orleans Saints remain alive for the #1 seed in the NFC! Thus ends the elimination scenarios for today; everyone is still alive for everything.

Intentionally giving up a play at the goal line for the Patriots was not a great decision, even before they got stuffed their next two plays. You're not good enough to just ~assume~ you're getting a touchdown.

Drake Maye has been darn good this year spotting blitzers and getting the ball out. But, well... ftnfantasy.com/nfl/why-you-...

Wins with a passer rating below 70 since the start of 2024: Bo Nix may not, in fact, be It.

New at @ftnfantasy.com from @brykno.bsky.social: free column inside our StatsHub on why you should not blitz Drake Maye but you can get to him with four. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/why-you-...

Putting Geno back in was coaching malpractice.

I tried to reconstruct an awesome @brykno.bsky.social stat from today's Schatz and Tanier show, and yikes, Michael Penix is missing open receivers at an outlier rate per @ftnfantasy.com

Oh, right, I was going to do the Titans, too! ...The Titans are in a lot of trouble.