Jaguars receivers are dropping passes left, right and center, but are they really to blame for this? Yes. Yes they are. But there's a little more to it than that... ftnfantasy.com/nfl/trevor-l...

New at @ftnfantasy.com from @brykno.bsky.social is a look at the Jaguars passing game. Who's more responsible for the problems, Trevor Lawrence or his receivers? FTN StatsHub can help tell us. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/trevor-l...

Ah, welcome to Thursday Night Football.

A big matchup in the NFC West tonight! I'm still not sure just how for real either the Seahawks or Cardinals are, so this will be a fascinating matchup. Seattle's #1 in DVOA, but a lot of that is special teams and I'm not sure how sustainable it is. Let's find out! discord.gg/Rw47FKesa2

The Cardinals should use this end zone design all the time, not just for rivalries week.

2025 has been the Year of Jones in the NFL so far. Sure, anyone can rank Daniel Jones versus Mac Jones. But what about Daronte Jones v. Braxton Jones? ftnfantasy.com/nfl/keeping-...

New at @ftnfantasy.com, @brykno.bsky.social has ranked all 59 of the Joneses in the NFL so far this season, from Colts QB Daniel to Chiefs DT Chris to Cowboys owner Jerry. It doesn't look good for Jerry. ($) ftnfantasy.com/nfl/keeping-...

Two equally likely events: FTN currently gives the Buffalo Bills a 3.0% chance of going 17-0. FTN currently gives the New York Giants a 3.0% chance of making the playoffs. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...

One more variable for the Giants switching to Dart now: last change to save the season? The odds of New York making the playoffs are miniscule (3.0% in FTN's sims). Falling to 0-4, when you might be in a division with a 4-0 team in a conference with as many as five 3-1 wildcard teams? Death.

Talking about Daniel Jones a bit, and it seems entirely reasonable that Jones could end up in the top 10 in DYAR by the end of the year. Here's a list of all the quarterbacks who finished top 10 one time in their career.

As for Russ, he's done enough to at least become a Hall of Fame ~finalist~, get in the room for the discussion. He'll have to have a great pitch in the room and a good narrative to get in, but he's done enough to at least get consideration.

"Russell Wilson’s time as an NFL starter is winding to an end...we may be able to count his remaining starts on one hand." I guess I was being too conservative! ftnfantasy.com/nfl/russell-...

If starting Jaxson Dart was a possibility in September, then you shouldn't have wasted time with Russell Wilson to begin with.

The Ravens opted not to go for it on fourth down, and let the Lions decide their fate. Dan Campbell was never going to do that.

What is this Ravens time management? You have all three timeouts; use some!

I don't like this punt with 4:30 left.

Ravens! Lions! One of these Super Bowl contenders is going to fall to 1-2 and be in Minor Panic mode! I'm sure we'll have calm, reasonable reactions in the DVOA Discord. discord.gg/wzqpcSPR

An interesting note about the predictive nature (or not) of blocked kicks. The Panthers blocked 5 FG/XP in 2022. They haven't blocked one since.

This week's DVOA commentary one day early due to Rosh Hashanah. Seahawks and Colts are the 20th and 21st teams to be over 40% DVOA after 3 games after a season where they ranked 16th or lower. What happened to the other teams? ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-3-d...

What do I think the 49ers will do to replace Bosa? Nothing. I think they'll work in-house, hope that Mykel Williams keeps improving, get Bryce Huff more involved. That being said, if the Saints are tanking and would accept a mid-round pick for a year rental on Cam Jordan...

Nick Bosa, out for the year with a torn ACL. Maybe I'm just numb to it by this point, but I'm just kind of shrugging my shoulders and moving on.

New Quick Reads: Best and worst players of Week 3 by DYAR. Plus, do you know how rare it is for an unheralded QB to be this good so early? I compare Daniel Jones to Brad Johnson, Kurt Warner, and Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2018. ($) ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-3-q...

Monday Night Football Breakdown 🎆 🏟️ Lions at Ravens

Two teams control their fate for the #1 seed -- win out, and they get the bye week. One is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, sitting at 3-0 despite a 6-point point differential. And the other is the Pittsburgh Steelers, despite sitting at just 2-1. They play BUF, LAC and IND still. Tough schedule.

The 1985 Buccaneers' record of being eliminated from division contention in just 8 weeks is safe.

Apropos of nothing, but... Some sources on the internet say the record for fastest clinching of a division title is 11 weeks. It's actually 11 ~games~, most recently done by the 2007 Patriots. This may be relevant information to 2025 Bills fans.

The fact that the Eagles returned the blocked kick for a touchdown, rather than just falling on it, is why they're #1 in the playoff standings over the 49ers right now.

If the Playoffs Started Today! NFC: 1. Eagles (over TB via SoV; over SF via conf points) 2. 49ers (over TB via SoV) 3. Buccaneers 4. Packers (over MIN via conf) 5. Vikings (over LAR via conf; over WAS via SoV) 6. Commanders (over LAR via conf) 7. Rams (over ARI/SEA via div)

I love what Russell Wilson is doing out there. The results aren't there yet, admittedly, but the process—sprinting in place for four seconds and then throwing the ball off the goal post at 107mph—is sound. Stay the course. This is for sure going to work.

Well, it's good to risk injury to Gano in such an obvious kick situation...

Cam Skattebo punted a bit at Arizona State, so maybe they should give him a crack at the extra points. Should they ever score again, mind you.

Main takeaway from the first half of this game: These sure are a pair of 0-2 teams.

Most games with 10+ receptions for running backs. The 49ers could use some more weapons back, and soon, but CMC is a nice safety valve to have, yeah?

What sort of magic pixie beans do the Chiefs USE?

Don't let your backup punter kick! Go for two, ya idiots.

The #49ers, Bucs and Eagles have all opened season with 3 straight wins by 1 score. This is first time ever that 3 teams did that in same season

Sitting in first place in the NFL Game Data Week 3 pick'em entering the night games. With my history, that means we're about to get a Giants upset to knock me out...

Talking blocked kicks, empanadas, and the chances of the Chiefs starting 0-3 tonight in the DVOA Discord. Odds are low, but you never know if the forecast calls for a Moonball... discord.gg/Rw47FKesa2

Going for it on 4th and goal was the right call, but dang.

If you need someone to get you six yards on third-and-long, Jake Ferguson is there. If you need someone to get you two yards on second-and-10, Jake Ferguson is there. If you want Jake Ferguson to do anything but these two things please do not call on Jake Ferguson.

A fieldgoal to make it 38-6. The Saints' comeback is on!

Giants 6, Diamondbacks 3. Need more Matt Chapman in the second half.

Rome Odunze's catchable target rates per @ftnfantasy.com: 2024: 58.4% (53rd of 54 qualifiers) 2025: 80.0% (15th of 58 qualifiers)

This Cleveland Browns upset victory brought to you by DudeWipes.

Oh, DeMario Douglas HAD that fourth down, and decided to jump backwards. Game will end on a terrible decision.

Who on earth wants to win this Texans-Jaguars game.

The Browns are dressed for the occasion.

You know, I hate to jump to conclusions, but the Patriots might to stop their cherished pregame ritual of bathing in pure grease.

Patriots have gone for it on fourth down three times, converted three times, this latest one is a touchdown to Hunter Henry to tie things up (if Borregales cooperates).

So, clearly, JJ McCarthy was the problem 😉