Also: if you read any or all of my six chapters in this year's book and wonder, "wow where is he working this season, what lucky outlet could that be?" well, that answer is still unknown. If you would like to change that, please reach out.

The Almanac is 100% worth it and easily provides some of the best analysis to get you ready for the season! I also love that you get a collection of analysts writing sections to get a unique perspective on stats and trends.

I've returned from my writing hiatus to bring you some research I did on determining an explosive play threshold. Using scoring-probability added, I found the yardage at which a gain starts acting differently in terms of its impact on scoring. Read it FREE on my Substack 🔗⤵️

I've returned from my writing hiatus to bring you some research I did on determining an explosive play threshold. Using scoring-probability added, I found the yardage at which a gain starts acting differently in terms of its impact on scoring. Read it FREE on my Substack 🔗⤵️

Just spent all week debugging an issue that was caused by a commit I made in January

I think I was rooting for the Sabres, but the crowd-deafening effect of an away OT goal is somehow so beautiful

I wrote about this at some point, I forget where/when and it probably doesn't exist anymore, but the other layer to RB wide/in the slot is that so many of those snaps just happen in empty and the target share of a RB in empty is typically so low, there's actually no meaningful impact to passing game

I’m a little late to the party, but I wrote about a controversial topic from the draft community. No, not consensus big boards… Instead, I used an analytical framework to determine how many games it takes to evaluate a prospect! You can read it for free on my Substack! 🔗⤵️

I’m a little late to the party, but I wrote about a controversial topic from the draft community. No, not consensus big boards… Instead, I used an analytical framework to determine how many games it takes to evaluate a prospect! You can read it for free on my Substack! 🔗⤵️

Want to see how the players your team drafted compare to prospects from past seasons? I went through each position and calculated sim scores based on player athleticism, production, and usage! You can read all of them on my Substack with the methodology in the first post! 🔗⤵️

Want to see how the players your team drafted compare to prospects from past seasons? I went through each position and calculated sim scores based on player athleticism, production, and usage! You can read all of them on my Substack with the methodology in the first post! 🔗⤵️

This is how I think the 1st round of the NFL draft will go tonight

With draft day upon us, here's a reminder of how the 1st round salaries rank within the market at each position and their %ile among starters in terms of APY, depending on which position is drafted at each spot. Drafting Jeremiyah Love 3rd would make him the 7th-highest paid RB.

Positional value has been a big topic of discussion this draft cycle with several of the top prospects playing at non-premium positions. Earlier this offseason I built a position-adjusted big board, so here's a final look at this year's version!

With draft day upon us, here's a reminder of how the 1st round salaries rank within the market at each position and their %ile among starters in terms of APY, depending on which position is drafted at each spot. Drafting Jeremiyah Love 3rd would make him the 7th-highest paid RB.

The way that we evaluate safeties and the framing of a player being a box safety or a free safety has become outdated. My safety prospect comparisons can help contextualize the kind of role and production they had in college to understand how they may be used in the NFL! 🔗⤵️

I had an idea to put a whole article together on why running backs shouldn't be labeled "offensive weapons" but @billbarnwell.com absolutely nailed it on the head here so I'll just leave it at that

The way that we evaluate safeties and the framing of a player being a box safety or a free safety has become outdated. My safety prospect comparisons can help contextualize the kind of role and production they had in college to understand how they may be used in the NFL! 🔗⤵️

This could quite possibly be the earliest into the NHL playoffs that I tell myself I'm going to watch more regular season hockey next season (narrator: he never watches more)

This linebacker class is headlined by the duo from Ohio State, both of whom are pressing teams to ignore positional value. But, it's also a deep class with 8 LBs ranked in the top 100, the most since 2022. Take a look at who each LB prospect compared to in my sim scores! 🔗⤵️

Here's a final look at player visits and meetings with teams throughout the draft process: 🏈: Pro Day 🏃: Private Workout 💻: Virtual 🔝: Top 30 Visit 🟢: Multiple visits with prospect

This linebacker class is headlined by the duo from Ohio State, both of whom are pressing teams to ignore positional value. But, it's also a deep class with 8 LBs ranked in the top 100, the most since 2022. Take a look at who each LB prospect compared to in my sim scores! 🔗⤵️

I'm wrapping up my prospect comparison series this week and today I have the edge class! A deep group, but no elite prospect that profiles as an every-down difference maker. Still, we should see several go in the 1st round Thursday night! Unlocked this one for all to read! 🔗⤵️

I'm wrapping up my prospect comparison series this week and today I have the edge class! A deep group, but no elite prospect that profiles as an every-down difference maker. Still, we should see several go in the 1st round Thursday night! Unlocked this one for all to read! 🔗⤵️

THE BUFFALO SABRES

I need the Sabres to score because the POP from that crowd when they do is going to be electric

My prospect comparison series rolls on with the defensive tackle class! Most of the prospects in this class don’t offer much as a pass rusher, but there are a few that stand out as great run defenders. Will be interesting to see how many go in the 1st Round. 🔗⤵️

My prospect comparison series rolls on with the defensive tackle class! Most of the prospects in this class don’t offer much as a pass rusher, but there are a few that stand out as great run defenders. Will be interesting to see how many go in the 1st Round. 🔗⤵️

This is an interesting tackle class. While there are 7 or 8 guys who could go in the 1st round, some have questions about whether they’re a good fit to play tackle or if they'd be better suited shifting to the interior. I calculated sim scores for each to help find out! 🔗⤵️

My new favorite bit is people describing running backs as "offensive weapons" simply to help further justify their value when in reality so few running backs are truly used as such

This year's interior OL class is pretty thin with just 6 players ranked among the top 100 consensus big board. Vega Ioane is the lone player with a 1st-round rank, but I still calculated sim scores for all the others! There are some fun guys later in the ranks imo. 🔗⤵️:

My god. Essential, horrifying reporting here.

This year's interior OL class is pretty thin with just 6 players ranked among the top 100 consensus big board. Vega Ioane is the lone player with a 1st-round rank, but I still calculated sim scores for all the others! There are some fun guys later in the ranks imo. 🔗⤵️:

One of the primary sentiments about this WR draft class is about how strong the depth is. There are currently 15 players in the top 100 consensus big board, and I calculated sim scores for each of them! Will be covering the trenches next week, so stay tuned! 🔗to read⤵️

One of the primary sentiments about this WR draft class is about how strong the depth is. There are currently 15 players in the top 100 consensus big board, and I calculated sim scores for each of them! Will be covering the trenches next week, so stay tuned! 🔗to read⤵️

Summarizing player visits and meetings with teams so far: 🏈: Pro Day 🏃: Private Workout 💻: Virtual 🔝: Top 30 Visit 🟢: Multiple visits with prospect

Actually think this is a great perspective. Nobody performs at their best nor is 100% of themselves every day, and they shouldn't expect to be. As soon as I gave myself the grace to have bad/less productive days, it drove down how often I beat myself up at the end of those days.

Kenyon Sadiq headlines this tight end class and is the only realistic 1st-round talent. But after him there’s a pretty drastic drop-off to the next tier of guys. In the next part of my ongoing series, I create prospect comparisons for these tight ends! 🔗 to read ⤵️

Kenyon Sadiq headlines this tight end class and is the only realistic 1st-round talent. But after him there’s a pretty drastic drop-off to the next tier of guys. In the next part of my ongoing series, I create prospect comparisons for these tight ends! 🔗 to read ⤵️

Kicking off my prospect comparison series with the running back position! In my article you'll find sim scores for prospects in the top 100 of the consensus board along with profile cards, like this one for Jeremiyah Love, who is the spotlight of this class! 🔗⤵️

Kicking off my prospect comparison series with the running back position! In my article you'll find sim scores for prospects in the top 100 of the consensus board along with profile cards, like this one for Jeremiyah Love, who is the spotlight of this class! 🔗⤵️

Coming this week at Hoppen to Conclusions...prospect sim scores!

Think this draft is so interesting because 3 of the top prospects - Arvell Reese (if considered LB), Caleb Downs, and Jeremiyah Love - are all at non-premium positions, driving them down the position-adjusted big board. Yet they're all consensus top 10 picks by Grinding the Mocks.

I’m not sure where it ranks on the list of shows all-time, but I can’t recall a show that makes me feel the range of emotions that Shrinking consistently does. Laughter, sadness, anxiety, joy, sympathy, the whole gamut.

ICYMI, I released my position-adjusted big board earlier this week. With more analyst boards being created since then, I've made an updated version as we head into the weekend! This board also reflects Arvell Reese's position as EDGE based on feedback I got. Cheers!

ICYMI, I released my position-adjusted big board earlier this week. With more analyst boards being created since then, I've made an updated version as we head into the weekend! This board also reflects Arvell Reese's position as EDGE based on feedback I got. Cheers!

Consensus prospect big boards do a great job of identifying the rank order of which players project best to the NFL. However, one key piece that has been missing is the positional value of those players. So, I created a position-adjusted prospect big board. 🔗 to read ⤵️

Consensus prospect big boards do a great job of identifying the rank order of which players project best to the NFL. However, one key piece that has been missing is the positional value of those players. So, I created a position-adjusted prospect big board. 🔗 to read ⤵️