I’ve added even more charts to Hoppen to Conclusions, which instantly makes this the best one yet. In addition to those, I also wrote about: 📊My chart making philosophy 🚀Why I'm getting excited about the Patriots 🦬The best way to attack Buffalo's defense ➕And MORE 🔗 to read: t.co/CiNWYqLmbd

The Eagles' offense currently leads the league in three-and-out rate:

EPA per drive team tiers:

Updated to include MNF:

Did we really get beat that bad? Week 4 NFL edition!

How the games were won (or tied) - I've shared all of the game recap charts on my Substack. Yet another wild Sunday in the NFL! 🔗: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...

Did we really get beat that bad? Week 4 NFL edition!

How the game was won: Cardinals vs. Seahawks

One thing I like to do is compare EPA/p to success rate. It's not perfect, but generally teams with a higher EPA/p than their implied success rate suggests they lean more on explosive plays. For example, SF's offense is consistent down-to-down and rarely leans on explosives.

One thing I like to do is compare EPA/p to success rate. It's not perfect, but generally teams with a higher EPA/p than their implied success rate suggests they lean more on explosive plays. For example, SF's offense is consistent down-to-down and rarely leans on explosives.

Key quarterback stats:

Another week, another Hoppen to Conclusions! This week I covered: ❌Why I don't quite believe in the Jaguars' defense 🐏The Rams going away from 11 personnel 🐻Caleb Williams' improvement ➕And MORE! 🔗 to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...

How quarterbacks have performed in expected pass situations so far this year:

Running back high-value touch leaders:

Offensive and defensive explosive play rates:

Pass rate over expectation leaders and weekly PROE:

EPA per drive team tiers: The Colts are breaking the scale

Updated to include MNF:

How the game was won: Giants vs. Chiefs Check out these charts for every other game at my Substack: t.co/0mAKHkgZpn

Did we really get beat that bad? Week 3 NFL edition!

Key run defense stats:

Key quarterback stats so far this year:

Week 3 NFL Composite Power Ratings! Sources: @espn.com (FPI) Robby Greere (nfelo) @inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable) Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points) @ftnfantasy.com / @aaronschatz.com (DVOA) @profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)

Key pass rush stats:

Key offensive line stats:

Key quarterback stats so far this year:

Hoppen to Conclusions Week 3 is LIVE! This week I discussed: 🦅Philadelphia's lack of offensive explosiveness 📈The Giants' shocking pass rates ⚔️Major concern for Tennessee's run defense ➕And MORE! Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...

EPA per drive team tiers:

Offensive and defensive explosive play rates:

Updated to include MNF:

Pass rate over expectation (PROE) leaders and weekly PROE: The Chargers simply refuse to run the ball

Did we really get beat that bad? Week 2 NFL edition! (MNF pending)

How the game was won: Vikings vs. Falcons SNF You can see the rest of Week 1's win probability recaps on my Substack here: t.co/Q7mFBoM8Nx

Did we really get beat that bad? Week 2 NFL edition! (MNF pending)

How the game was won: Vikings vs. Falcons SNF You can see the rest of Week 1's win probability recaps on my Substack here: t.co/Q7mFBoM8Nx

Just shared all of Sunday's game recap charts with Hoppen to Conclusions subscribers (yes, I've rebranded). Some wild games led to some wild charts! 🔗: samhoppen.substack.com/p/nfl-week-2...

Matchup previews are now live on my Substack! You can get preview charts like this for every game each week sent straight to your inbox by subscribing. Let's have a great week! 🔗: t.co/4HPY7o6bi1

Updated to include MNF:

Did we really get beat that bad? Week 1 NFL edition! (MNF pending)

Week 1 NFL Composite Power Ratings! Sources: @espn.com (FPI) Robby Greere (nfelo) @inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable) @unabatedsports.bsky.social (Massey-Peabody) Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points) @ftnfantasy.com/@aaronschatz.com (DVOA) I have commentary & a CSV download in my Substack (🔗 below)

Week 1 NFL Composite Power Ratings! Sources: @espn.com (FPI) Robby Greere (nfelo) @inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable) @unabatedsports.bsky.social (Massey-Peabody) Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points) @ftnfantasy.com/@aaronschatz.com (DVOA) I have commentary & a CSV download in my Substack (🔗 below)

The first 2025 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions is LIVE! I did quick look back of what teams did last year while introducing the plethora of charts that I’ll be providing each week. Enjoy! 🔗 in reply

The first 2025 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions is LIVE! I did quick look back of what teams did last year while introducing the plethora of charts that I’ll be providing each week. Enjoy! 🔗 in reply

We often talk about which teams will be good or bad, but never about the teams that'll shape the year. So, I finally put pen to paper on a thought I've had all offseason: who will be the most influential team of the 2025 NFL season? My pick: the Las Vegas Raiders 🔗 below

We often talk about which teams will be good or bad, but never about the teams that'll shape the year. So, I finally put pen to paper on a thought I've had all offseason: who will be the most influential team of the 2025 NFL season? My pick: the Las Vegas Raiders 🔗 below

Wanted to take a look at non-division strength of schedule for my article coming out later this week (used the adjusted win totals on nfeloapp.com):

Have gotten some questions about content I’m doing for this NFL szn, so for those who are interested here’s my current plan: You’ll be able to find most charts on Twitter/Bsky and will be sharing Hoppen to Conclusions on my Substack (🔗 below) each week! Let’s have a great year!

Our team at PENN is looking for a Data Science Manager! This position will collaborate across data science, engineering and risk & trading to help bring a world class NFL data product to life. If you're up for the challenge please apply with this link (this is a remote position): t.co/GFXbrKQi0P

New #WNBA Composite Power Ratings! Sources @espn.com: BPI @inpredict.bsky.social: Inpredictable @positiveresidual.com: Positive Residual @basketball-reference.com: SRS

New #WNBA Composite Power Ratings! Sources @espn.com: BPI @inpredict.bsky.social: Inpredictable @positiveresidual.com: Positive Residual @basketball-reference.com: SRS