One of the primary sentiments about this WR draft class is about how strong the depth is. There are currently 15 players in the top 100 consensus big board, and I calculated sim scores for each of them! Will be covering the trenches next week, so stay tuned! 🔗to read⤵️

One of the primary sentiments about this WR draft class is about how strong the depth is. There are currently 15 players in the top 100 consensus big board, and I calculated sim scores for each of them! Will be covering the trenches next week, so stay tuned! 🔗to read⤵️

Summarizing player visits and meetings with teams so far: 🏈: Pro Day 🏃: Private Workout 💻: Virtual 🔝: Top 30 Visit 🟢: Multiple visits with prospect

Actually think this is a great perspective. Nobody performs at their best nor is 100% of themselves every day, and they shouldn't expect to be. As soon as I gave myself the grace to have bad/less productive days, it drove down how often I beat myself up at the end of those days.

Kenyon Sadiq headlines this tight end class and is the only realistic 1st-round talent. But after him there’s a pretty drastic drop-off to the next tier of guys. In the next part of my ongoing series, I create prospect comparisons for these tight ends! 🔗 to read ⤵️

Kenyon Sadiq headlines this tight end class and is the only realistic 1st-round talent. But after him there’s a pretty drastic drop-off to the next tier of guys. In the next part of my ongoing series, I create prospect comparisons for these tight ends! 🔗 to read ⤵️

Kicking off my prospect comparison series with the running back position! In my article you'll find sim scores for prospects in the top 100 of the consensus board along with profile cards, like this one for Jeremiyah Love, who is the spotlight of this class! 🔗⤵️

Kicking off my prospect comparison series with the running back position! In my article you'll find sim scores for prospects in the top 100 of the consensus board along with profile cards, like this one for Jeremiyah Love, who is the spotlight of this class! 🔗⤵️

Coming this week at Hoppen to Conclusions...prospect sim scores!

Think this draft is so interesting because 3 of the top prospects - Arvell Reese (if considered LB), Caleb Downs, and Jeremiyah Love - are all at non-premium positions, driving them down the position-adjusted big board. Yet they're all consensus top 10 picks by Grinding the Mocks.

I’m not sure where it ranks on the list of shows all-time, but I can’t recall a show that makes me feel the range of emotions that Shrinking consistently does. Laughter, sadness, anxiety, joy, sympathy, the whole gamut.

ICYMI, I released my position-adjusted big board earlier this week. With more analyst boards being created since then, I've made an updated version as we head into the weekend! This board also reflects Arvell Reese's position as EDGE based on feedback I got. Cheers!

ICYMI, I released my position-adjusted big board earlier this week. With more analyst boards being created since then, I've made an updated version as we head into the weekend! This board also reflects Arvell Reese's position as EDGE based on feedback I got. Cheers!

Consensus prospect big boards do a great job of identifying the rank order of which players project best to the NFL. However, one key piece that has been missing is the positional value of those players. So, I created a position-adjusted prospect big board. 🔗 to read ⤵️

Consensus prospect big boards do a great job of identifying the rank order of which players project best to the NFL. However, one key piece that has been missing is the positional value of those players. So, I created a position-adjusted prospect big board. 🔗 to read ⤵️

March Madness

Went to the local brewery with Christina and before saying a word the bartender asked, “would you like two Working for the Weekends?” Become a regular life achievement: unlocked ✅

Now that the biggest wave of free agency is done, here's a chart showing how the 1st round draft salaries rank within the current market for at each position and their percentile among *starters* in terms of APY, depending on which position is drafted at each spot:

Now that the biggest wave of free agency is done, here's a chart showing how the 1st round draft salaries rank within the current market for at each position and their percentile among *starters* in terms of APY, depending on which position is drafted at each spot:

Harper? I hardly knew her!

If these are the prices for DJ Moore and Jaylen Waddle, you have to imagine the price for AJ Brown is bonkers

The single-game elimination format of the WBC is what makes these games so incredible. The weight of a single out or run is that much higher than any other baseball game at this level.

A look at where the free agent deals this week rank in terms of APY within each player's position:

We're having another sports analytics social in Chicago in just under a month! Come join us to talk draft surplus value, MLB's new ABS system, and anything else sports or analytics!

A look at where the free agent deals this week rank in terms of APY within each player's position:

Don't think this is terrible for Indy. They're in purgatory anyway without 1st-round picks the next two years, so Jones was probably their best option anyway to try and recapture his spark pre-injury. And if it doesn't work out, can just move on from him when the rebuild starts.

Final thought on the Crosby trade debacle: lots of people are saying this is a bad look for Baltimore since there’s a sense that they did “back out” of it to some extent, but what impact does it have on them? Less trust from other trade partners? Less trust from free agents?

Don’t remember where I heard it, but someone pointed out that even though Crosby is only 28 years old, his “playing age” is likely a year or two older than that just by virtue of how often he’s been on the field. Just an insane amount of reps he’s had.

Threw together some quick thoughts and charts on what's happened in NFL free agency so far. I wrote about: 🏴‍☠️ Tyler Linderbaum's new deal 🔳 The domino effect of some of the RB signings 🟡 The 49ers getting a steal in Mike Evans ➕ And more! 🔗⤵️

Threw together some quick thoughts and charts on what's happened in NFL free agency so far. I wrote about: 🏴‍☠️ Tyler Linderbaum's new deal 🔳 The domino effect of some of the RB signings 🟡 The 49ers getting a steal in Mike Evans ➕ And more! 🔗⤵️

Here's a look at how some of the top offensive free agents signed so far rank within their position in terms of APY (not all guarantees have been reported yet):

So far in free agency we've seen 5 of the top 9 center contracts by APY doled out. Incredible week for the position.

Saints were 24th in the league in 12 personnel last year. Betting Kellen Moore wants to get into more of the heavy-TE packages this year.

The Andrews extension was perplexing at the time and now it's even more confusing knowing they could've kept Likely, who is six years younger, at just a slightly higher cost.

If it keeps the Chiefs from drafting Love in the top 10, then by all means go for it

Chicago's list of needs has gotten a little longer since the start of the offseason, but they're now becoming more well-equipped to fill those needs especially with four top-90 draft picks.

Remember, Brandon Beane was promoted

In this article, I also used Carnell Tate's controversial hand-timed 40s to show how big of an impact it could have on projecting draft position if those were used over his NFL-registered time.

Why do scouts still hand time combine drills? I watched Kenyon Sadiq's 40-yard dash 47 times to get a sense of his true range of outcomes. Then, I wrote about why teams might still use hand times, what pitfalls they have, and the potential impact on modeling for teams. 🔗⤵️

I randomly just got really excited about the idea of the Colts signing Malik Willis. Think they have the cap space to do it and feel like it’d be a rather simple shift of the Jones offense from last year. Plus, pairing him with JT would keep the floor of the run game very high.

Walked into a cafe and someone (whom I don't know) gave me a head nod with a "Hey coach, how's it going?" so it's nice to know that I at least give off that vibe

.....then why didn't he call plays last year?

ICYMI, yesterday I wrapped on my offseason preview series! I went through every division sharing these dashboards and touching on each team's offseason priorities, potential cap casualties, and team needs! You can find them all on my Substack at the links below!

Who thought this jersey combo was a good idea?

2026 NFL Draft QB prospects completion percentage over expectation by how far they threw the football down the field. Capped at 40 yards because its wonky after that. Yes that is Cole Payton and NDSU you are seeing👀

The last of my offseason previews is here, wrapping things with the NFC West! I cover: 🐦 Arizona thinking about the long-term future 🟡 How San Fran is equipped to restock to compete 🐏 Why the Rams are set up for this year and beyond 🏆 Seattle replenishing their depth 🔗⤵️

For those who care, I just pushed an update to my play callers dataset with all 2025 games as well as my assumptions for who will call plays for each team in 2026. Shout if you see any potential errors! github.com/samhoppen/NF...

WHAT A MOVE TO GET THE GOAL 🥇🥇🥇

For those who care, I just pushed an update to my play callers dataset with all 2025 games as well as my assumptions for who will call plays for each team in 2026. Shout if you see any potential errors! github.com/samhoppen/NF...