A little late to the party, but the Week 16 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions is LIVE! This week I wrote about: 🐆 The Jaguars' red hot streak 🔴 Arizona's personnel usage 🚀 Brock Purdy's high-end efficiency ➕ And MORE! Link to read: samhoppen.substack.com/p/hoppen-to-...

Offensive and defensive success rates by down: The Rams' offense on early downs is a juggernaut

Updated to include MNF:

Monday night football game preview: Steelers vs. Dolphins

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:

Just posted matchup previews for all of the Week 15 games on my Substack! Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...

How the game was won: Bucs vs. Falcons Incredible what the Falcons did to overcome their 19 penalties that cost them 36.4% in win probability and 12.96 EPA across the game. Kirk Cousins was slinging it and had his best game in a longgg time.

Thursday night football preview: Buccaneers vs. Falcons The Bucs have been reeling as of late having lost 4 of their last 5, but have a chance to regain some control of the NFC South battle - if they win, they'll own the tiebreaker over Carolina should they split their 2 games.

Thursday night football preview: Buccaneers vs. Falcons The Bucs have been reeling as of late having lost 4 of their last 5, but have a chance to regain some control of the NFC South battle - if they win, they'll own the tiebreaker over Carolina should they split their 2 games.

Went for quality over quantity in this week's Hoppen to Conclusions. I wrote about: 🦁Detroit's pass funnel defense 🏔️Denver passing the ball more ⚜️Thoughts on Tyler Shough 🟠The Bengals' personnel changes Link to read: t.co/3seEXpoYUc

Examining completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of starting quarterbacks by pass depth: Drake Maye is currently the only QB with a positive CPOE at every level of the field.

Offensive and defensive explosive play rates: The two best defenses at limiting explosive plays matchup against each other this week.

Updated to include MNF:

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:

How often teams call a designed run following a first-down incompletion: Klint, wyd man?

Just posted matchup previews for all of the Week 14 games on my Substack! Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...

Thursday night football preview: Lions vs. Cowboys Massive playoff implications for this one with a combined 78% in playoff probability swings. Dallas' D has improved having not allowed a success rate over 45% in their last 3 games and will go against a beaten up Lions O.

Breaking down team year-to-date and last four game performance by various components, measured by total EPA (all components are measured in a way that positive EPA is better):

Thursday night football preview: Lions vs. Cowboys Massive playoff implications for this one with a combined 78% in playoff probability swings. Dallas' D has improved having not allowed a success rate over 45% in their last 3 games and will go against a beaten up Lions O.

Hit 1,000 subs on my Substack this morning! As something that's been a passion project, it's been very cool to see other people show interest in my work and I appreciate all who have supported it! Looking forward to the rest of the szn and what I have planned for the offseason!

Week 14 NFL Composite Power Ratings! Sources: @espn.com (FPI) @greerreNFL (nfelo) @inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable) @KevinCole___ (Unexpected Points) @ftnfantasy.com/@aaronschatz.com (DVOA) @profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF) @PoolGenius (Pool Genius)

Key coverage stats (year-to-date and last four games):

Key run defense stats (year-to-date and last four games):

Key pass rush stats (year-to-date and last four games): Dallas is still struggling to take down opposing quarterbacks, but their pressure rate continues to get more consistent

Key offensive line stats (year-to-date and last four games):

Key quarterback stats (year-to-date and last four games): Dak Prescott going legacy mode rn

The NFL season is starting to wind down, but Hoppen to Conclusions rolls on! This week I wrote about: 📊Adding context to analytics 🚀The rising Texans ↩️Sean McVay going back to his old ways 🏴‍☠️Tampa Bay's secondary ➕And MORE! 🔗 to read: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...

How quarterbacks have performed in various stable components (as defined by PFF):

How quarterbacks have performed in various stable components (as defined by PFF):

Offensive and defensive explosive play rates: De'Von Achane continues to improve and the Dolphins now have the most explosive rushing offense this year thanks to his league-leading 18 explosive rushes

EPA per drive team tiers (year-to-date and last four games): Here come the Texans?

Updated to include MNF:

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:

Monday night football game preview: Patriots vs. Giants

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:

Just posted all of Sunday’s game recap charts over on my Substack (🔗 below)! Today didn't feature the best games, but Week 13 as a whole was still filled with plenty of drama!

Black Friday game preview: Eagles vs. Bears Chicago’s offense and Philly’s defense matchup as two units on the rise. Think the Bears need to lean into using play-action because Philly’s been very prone to play-action, allowing a league-high 0.46 EPA/pass against it.

Black Friday game preview: Eagles vs. Bears Chicago’s offense and Philly’s defense matchup as two units on the rise. Think the Bears need to lean into using play-action because Philly’s been very prone to play-action, allowing a league-high 0.46 EPA/pass against it.

This year I’m extremely thankful for all the Hoppen to Conclusions subscribers! It’s been overwhelming the amount of support I’ve gotten and it’s not lost on me how special that is! This week’s post (🔗 ⤵️) has more on my gratitude and a hefty dose of charts! Happy Thanksgiving!

Breaking down team year-to-date and last four game performance by various components, measured by total EPA (all components are measured in a way that positive EPA is better): Rams have been playing incredibly, but have also been major beneficiaries of positive turnover luck.

Offensive and defensive explosive play rates: Despite a high volume of plays, the Cardinals' explosive pass rate has been incredible in their last four games.

EPA per drive team tiers:

Updated to include MNF:

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:

Monday night football preview: 49ers vs. Panthers Panthers will head into Levi's stadium with a chance to take the top spot in the NFC South. But, San Fran's offense has been humming lately and will be very, very tough to slow down.

How the game was won: Rams vs. Buccaneers A start-to-finish dominating win for the Rams. Los Angeles had a 35.7% pressure rate according to Next Gen Stats, their highest in a game since Week 6.

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates:

Just posted all of Sunday’s game recap charts over on my Substack! Another crazy day of football today and you can see just how each team won their game in the link below! 🔗: open.substack.com/pub/samhoppe...

Just posted matchup previews for all of the Week 12 games on my Substack! Check out how each team's offense matches up against their opponent's defense: t.co/S953bswGoz