Exactly. The best way to help Ukriane's democracy is to give them the weapons they need to win the war so martial law can be lifted and there can be elections.

In the words of perhaps the greatest copper merchant in history, 'if you want to take them, take them; if you do not want to take them, go away'...

A vision of peace, order and good government, hopefully... Happy Canada Day to those who celebrate.

Two posts to summarise the UK political moment from @stephenkb.bsky.social

Almost forgot my obligatory posting of this clip

One for the WWI geeks bonus panel here: www.smbc-comics.com/comic/estimate

Liz Truss was PM for just 49 days but her name will go down in history as a verb to describe both creating an economic crisis and killing an eldery and respected leader. Impressive.

woooooo ladies, she's going to make some friends with this week's newsletter

My column in today’s paper: why the “it’s a Studio Ghibli filter!” is so depressing to me:

Seriously, if you worry that upholding the law might be politically bad for the 'optics‘, and could give a boost to the people you want nowhere near power, you have already given up on the principles you claim to be defending.

This is what actually worries me, although an actively hostile US would of course be worse, I fear the balance of probability is that at some point sooner rather than later the new administration kicks over something seriously loadbearing and the US spends a decade entirely focused on fixing that.

“The paradox is that 500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 150 million Russians. We have to rely on ourselves, being fully aware of our own potential and believing that we are a global power”. - Donald Tusk, PM Poland

Every single one of the Trump supporters sounds like a domestic abuser. "You should've let him hit you, you shouldn't have complained in public, you're never grateful, you never say thank you."

Algorithmic Complacency and the effects of automation of the media space on, well, everything. Very much worth a watch.

So Nigel Farage has chosen to explain away Trump’s outrageous remarks about President Zelensky instead of doing the right thing and condemning them. Deeply disappointing but not at all surprising. He sounds like a spokesman for Trump. He certainly doesn’t speak for Britain.

It is crucial for Europeans to realise that at the rate Musk and Trump are shredding US state capacity, by the summer the US might not be able to substantially help defend Europe even if it wants to.

About once every half-million years, Earth's magnetic poles switch. After day 1 of #MSC2025, I can't think of a better metaphor for the European politics of the transatlantic alliance: everything is reversing.

Fifth and last point on Hegseth. ‘Overwhelming share of lethal and non-lethal aid’ to be provided by Europe. That’s the wake-up call. US is setting the terms then walking away. There’s no escaping the need for big increase in UK defence spending now and close UK/EU defence industrial cooperation 7/7

An army too busy trying to root out progressive social attitudes to fight, an administration that's more a heist than it is a government. In Europe, Canada and around the world we'll have to manage ourselves, or not at all...

Well it Groundhog Day... Again.

If Viktor Orban really blocks European sanctions at a key moment for the war, it’ll be absolutely clear that in this big game for the security and future of Europe, he is playing in Putin’s team, not in ours. With all the consequences of this fact.

There is something to be said for a removals lorry in Downing Street in the early dawn of the day after the general election. A far better way to show the transfer of political power.

Well, the answer is in. That should be the end of the topic now, unless and until the House Speaker starts lining up funding for an expedition.

Glad to see this. Here's hoping the provisional government is able to implement a programme of transition from Russian backed dictatorship to a freer and safer society, and that all Europe has the geopolitical nous to back it up.

Did we get Brexit done, Boris? Is it proper now? Are we at the sunlit uplands yet? Like hell we are. Anyway, now that we've wasted a decade on that, how about let's sort out a customs union, so we can help with the European defence industrial base for when the Americans really start withdrawing, hm?

🧵There are five illusions about Ukraine that lead to flawed “peace” plans that are doomed to fail. I have listed the illusions here in the hope that reality-based discussions can soon become the norm.👇 1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣4️⃣5️⃣

Slightly obvious, still interesting. Possibly the biggest hurdle, other than assembling a majority for new rules among people who were elected under the old rules, is then that there's a vast array of options for new rules and everyone's got a favourite...

Excellent column. Unfortunately, there is no easy way back. But both sides should at least consider a customs union, and coordinate closely on security and defence. Most importantly, we need a sense of urgency. Some countries have it. Germany and the U.K. are both too complacent, in different ways.

A terrific theory that pairs well with the Economist's terrific and terrifying chart of Musk's tweeting.

I feel like people have forgotten that the postwar international order was not designed by utopian idealists but by incredibly ruthless political leaders who'd watched one hundred million people die and the entire world be pushed the brink of annihilation twice in their adult lives.

The latest poll on Germany‘s parliamentary election is crazy. FDP, Linke, and BSW all below the threshold of making it into parliament. 🤯 I think it’s still too early to take polls seriously, but this just shows how uncertain the outcome is (parties not making it screws with seat allocation)

No-one will stop Putin with phone calls. The attack last night, one of the biggest in this war, has proved that telephone diplomacy cannot replace real support from the whole West for Ukraine. The next weeks will be decisive, not only for the war itself, but also for our future.

To an extent UK politics is always going to exist downstream of US media. Britain, for all its troubles, does after all remain one of the largest American-speaking countries. But it doesn't have to stay downstream of the absolute worst of it.

NEW: "Moving Off X: An Open Letter from UK Journalists" UK political journalists: "Twitter was, for a long time, the place to be for UK politics. We believe that time is now over... "We have taken the decision to move over to other platforms, in particular Bluesky" docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Excellent article on Russia’s mounting economic & Defence industrial woes that - busts the myth of inevitable Russian victory - shows the need for ‘Competitive Strategies’ that turn the screws & exacerbate Russia’s weaknesses foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/14/r... Marc deVore & Alexander Mertens

English translation of the paper: www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Da...

Reading this paper which tries to estimate how much more it would cost Germany to NOT support Ukraine, versus the current support. The authors estimate it’s 10 times the current support. www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Da...

For the second time in his life, Friedrich Merz is a step away from taking charge of Germany. Merz has called for an ultimatum to Moscow after which Ukraine could receive the much-desired Taurus missiles, powerful weapons that Scholz refused to provide.

German federal elections in February? Too slow. Although I wonder what impact losing a confidence vote will have on who forms the caretaker administration in the interim?

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