There's something very satisfying about catching an LLM tripping up on a Stata "gotcha" behavior you're very familiar with and you can wisely instruct it with your experience

My take on the cell phone ban study (tom-dee.github.io/files/w35132...): I think the subjective well-being increase would be worth it, but we need to treat it as preliminary rather than definitive given how many outcomes and periods are tested

Four months ago, the Trump admin “temporarily paused” immigration benefits for nationals of 39 countries plus the Palestinian Authority. Tens of thousands of applications each month have just been stuck in a filing cabinet with no progress. People are stuck in limbo; some are even losing their jobs.

This should hopefully become a textbook example of “passthrough.” Consumers paid most of the tariffs in higher prices even though importers nominally made the payments Unfortunately, consumers won’t get rebates it seems

I don't think Kamala Harris would've threatened to commit genocide in Iran on a random Tuesday morning a month after starting an unwinnable war with them for no reason

Evil. No other word for it.

Gen. Caine and Adm. Cooper should put a statement now making clear the U.S. military will not follow orders that would mean committing war crimes, including military actions whose purpose would be to destroy a country or a civilization.

In another world, another timeline, I have the space to marvel at these achievements without my mind falling back down to darknesses here on Earth

Student visas for Africa’s best and brightest were canceled by the Trump administration, leaving empty seats and broken dreams. “A punch to the heart,” said one woman who lost her scholarship.

89% – percentage of disaster aid requests Trump has approved for states with a Republican governor and two Republican senators 23% – percentage of disaster aid requests Trump has approved for states with a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

They were never serious about making this a "pause." Now, thousands of people can't get work permits or are separated from their spouses/kids because the administration wrote out a list of disfavored countries

I think the president should need Congressional approval to send thousands of ground troops to invade another country

I struggle to communicate my fury about the easing of sanctions on Russia's oil as a result of the Iran war. Unlike basically anything suggested as an objective in this fool war, containing Russia's ability to brutalize and dominate Eastern Europe *actually is* a vital US security interest.

Trump fantasizes about conquering NATO allies Canada, Denmark/Greenland, but we’re struggling to keep global shipping open with Iran — poorer, fewer allies, and a divided population Insane

Thousands of people will likely die in this war and the most consistent rationale given is that it’s for one man’s ego Trump wants to be “personally involved” (per article). Not the US, not US interests — Trump personally

It’s incredible how much US military power can do without achieving concrete political goals. We removed one hostile head of state (Maduro) and maybe another (Khamenei) But what will change in Iran/Venezuela for the good?

It’s (effectively) a joke, but this actually reflects the real costs of tariffs. Businesses handed over the money but also raised their prices and bore less of the cost US Consumers paid most of the tariffs via those high prices, meaning they should get the rebates

Kevin Hassett condemning an analysis of the incidence of import tariffs that looks at import prices because he says one should also look at quantities. The second exhibit in libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is… is titled "China’s Share of U.S. Imports Has Fallen Markedly".

Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data. The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference.

Glad to see this is out in @nber.org WP series and since my excellent co-author @chinemeluokafor.bsky.social and I have been discussing the results for the past few weeks, here's an old-fashioned paper thread on why protests matter/can work to influence economic redistribution 1/n

No one will be able to say they didn't know what was happening.

This implies death. Mass death. Caused directly by the decision of the White House and M*sk (then a top White House official) to recklessly obliterate—not reform—our overseas assistance capacity.

My office has been flooded with reports of the cruel, unsafe, unlawful conditions inside of the Whipple detention facility in Minneapolis. This weekend, I was finally granted access to perform oversight of the facility. youtu.be/0SxPn8n2Bfg

This is sickeningly cruel and inhumane.

I'd just add I don't think the crisis is at all over, because Trump never sticks to agreements just because they're conventionally considered binding. The crisis will only be over when his regime is dislodged from Washington, if then.

Some perspective: The S&P opened down -1.3% on Trump's Greenland saber-rattling. That's $750 billion of wealth destroyed -- roughly equal to estimates of the value of Greenland. And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.

A lot of international conflicts aren’t black-and-white, but here it is crystal clear. And it really sucks to unambiguously be the villain.

Yesterday, the State Department expanded the immigrant visa ban to half of all legal immigrants, including all immigrants from 93 countries. No law was passed. Not even an executive order was signed. They just did it. Tweeted it. Banana Republic. www.cato.org/blog/new-ban...

Have a friend who is likely stranded from his wife & kids indefinitely because of this. No warning to people who have sunk years of their life into an onerous process www.npr.org/2026/01/14/g...

Fed rates at 3.5% is not a crime

You do not want interest rates to be set by political whims because historically everyday people paid the price. Literally.

🤔

I am tired of the lies. Truth exists. This federal officer was clearly not "run over"—as the US president lied. He was not under attack. He was not forced to shoot this US citizen in the face. Draw the line now. Allowing government murder with impunity will harm all Conservatives, all Liberals.

I was listening to @thebulwark.com's Next Level podcast today and they were thinking through the chance that Trump actually tries to seize Greenland and there was a @jvl.bsky.social sort of 'I kinda hope he does it to drop the mask entirely' and I just cannot scream loudly enough: No, You Do Not. 1/

A bit contrary to my expectations, Kalshi has opposition candidates with majority odds* to run Venezuela by the end of the year kalshi.com/markets/kxve... * probabilities add up to > 100%, so adjustments necessary to say exactly

The president cannot unilaterally declare war. At least with Iraq, they made a public case for regime change and held a congressional vote.

This really is grotesque: they went through years-long citizenship processes and are now being denied simply because if the country they are from. It’s formalized bigotry.

This corresponds to my basic, two-part take (1) the essay isn't my cup of tea, but 0/25 seems harsh based on the rubric (2) there are way saner grade dispute mechanisms that don't involve administrative leave and a national conversation

My wife went through this process. It’s horrific that it’s being turned into a game of Russian roulette by ICE.

This is really sad news -- and I'd hoped so hard this would never happen

This is very bad wjla.com/news/local/s...

🆕 How public education transforms opportunity: Evidence from the 1870 Education Act Today on VoxDev, Ben Milner explores lessons from British history showing how targeted public investment in education can help narrow the gap in opportunity between rich and poor children: voxdev.org/topic/educat...

Thanks, BLS Staff! #EconSky #NumbersDay www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

It is genuinely hard for most people to grasp how poor the past was.

the Iranian drought story is insanely undercovered. foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/07/i...

Astonishing. Purging the United States of the best and brightest researchers from around the world will cripple our capacity to innovate and compete. Particularly with China. Numb, reckless nativist extremism will harm generations of Conservative and Liberal Americans.

Rule of Law Alert: Trump’s authority for country-specific tariffs comes from the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which doesn’t mention tariffs—but does require a national emergency. An ad showing that Reagan opposed tariffs surely is not a national emergency. (It may be a personal one)

Our public money to support research at our universities is mandated by our Congress. It is not the personal slush fund of the president, to withhold at will or dole out as largesse, rewarding those who please him. Those who seek reform of universities can use laws, not arbitrary extortion.

I don't feel any safer with ICE taking a 13 year old 500+ miles from his mother (and per article, they had a pending immigration case anyway)