Nuclear talks: Diplomats have gathered in New York to review the future of the global nonproliferation regime, while Washington and Tehran develop terms for potential future meetings. 🔦 Yet there are three lessons for nuclear security we can already see.

Who can't help but wish that we sent more rockets into space and fewer missiles into the ground?

I would like to know where he got the phrase "nuclear dust."

I keep seeing this framing like Bremmer's. It is wrong. Instead: 1. Iran was developing an ICBM when Khamenei imposed a 2,000-km range limit. 3. The programs shifted to space launch. 4. Khamenei lifted the restriction in October 2025 after the June attacks. 5. Now he's dead, and here we are.

Preventive regime change war in the name of non-proliferation?

Want to understand more about the eye popping 1.5T Trump defense budget news? Check out me, @dumbacher.bsky.social, & @laurenakahn.bsky.social for @cfr.org! www.cfr.org/expert-brief... #defense #natsec

"The Pentagon’s acquisition system is not built to meet a moment where rapid technological change in areas like AI is shifting the capabilities the U.S. should acquire," write @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and @dumbacher.bsky.social for @cfr.org: www.cfr.org/expert-brief...

If the president intends to signal strength [there are] solutions without the risk of radiological consequences, without offering an advantage to China’s expanding nuclear program, and without the risk of a new global race to test nuclear weapons. www.cfr.org/expert-brief...

I spoke to the @nytimes.com about Trump's unclear comments about nuclear testing www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/u...

Seems like a good time to re-read this. China and Russia would benefit from a restart of testing, more than the U.S.

-Putin has been touting tests of Skyfall and Poseidon this week. (The tests were of nuke-powered, nuke delivery systems-not live warhead detonations) -The Dept of War isnt responsible for nuke explosive testing. Thats DoEs job. -The "renovation of existing weapons" continues.

The B-1 bombers are returning after more than 14 hours in the air and an in-your-face mission to just outside Venezuelan airspace, along the coast, and back.

“A House of Dynamite” is all too plausible. I’m a nuke expert - and it scared the heck out of me. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

I was able to see an early screening of "A House of Dynamite." Americans need to see this movie and remember why nuclear attack is vastly more terrifying than any other threat to our existence. www.netflix.com/title/81744537

"...(Type 26) is sailing in company with two uncrewed escorts who are using AI to work in tandem with the warship. (...) It is my aim to have the first of our uncrewed escort ships sailing alongside our Royal Navy warships within the next two years.”"

“This was not an accident, obviously, given the number of drones,” said Hodges. “This was a rehearsal. To probe, and find out how good are our early warning systems, what are our reaction times.”

Polish and Dutch fighters, directed by Italian early warning aircraft, German air defenses on alert. Dutch PM: “I’m glad that Dutch F35 fighter jets were able to provide support. The Netherlands stands shoulder to shoulder with our NATO ally Poland.” Common defense working as designed.

Worst incident in a while.

Pretty essential read blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2020/06/09/w...

This is absolutely right. But it's not inevitable that AI will impact nuclear weapons decisions; a hundred humans would need to hand decisions over to machines. We have the power and agency to stop it. (1/3)

This issue is bigger than just "robots launch nukes." Every launch requires a thousand human decisions. Humans have saved us from nuclear disaster before. What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?

Trump: “The USA is fully prepared for a nuclear war with Russia.”

A good roundup on the context. www.twz.com/sea/question...

You might hear #tsunami warning in the Pacific and think about Japanese nuclear power plants and their power backups. Yes, although lessons were learned from Fukushima. Also Russia's Pacific nuclear submarines are based on the Kamchatka peninsula. Thread (1/4) www.newsweek.com/russian-news...

So the total cost of boats 1-3 increased by 12.4% from FY25 to FY26. And that is unlikely to be the end of the cost growth. Which begs a significant question: How much headroom is left before a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach and can the program stay under it? (4/4)

🚀🇺🇸 Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill" adds $150B in defense $. It could accelerate emerging tech adoption to stay ahead of China + bolster nuclear deterrence...or not. Learn more in latest from me, @dumbacher.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social for @cfr.org www.cfr.org/expert-brief...

Yes. Plus the IAEA has credibility because of its inspections, which would be nearly impossible to replicate for AI.

Taiwan is accelerating efforts to develop a high-tech fleet of naval drones—a potential game-changer in its ability to fend off a possible Chinese invasion www.wsj.com/world/asia/t...

Wrong, for a number of reasons, some of which (criticality) are addressed in the comments. Let's do some stoichiometry! 1/

Whether you agree or not with the proposed solutions (no first use, smaller deterrent force, revising sole authority) in this article, it’s time for a real, honest, modern look at options that don’t put service members in an impossible position. Thanks @radiofreetom.bsky.social

New Pew report 85% of Trump's 2020 voters voted for him in 2024, 3% voted for Harris, 1% voted other, and 11% didn't vote. Only 79% of Biden's 2020 voters voted for Harris, 5% voted for Trump, 1% voted other, and 15% didn't vote. www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...

Don't forget that foundational investments in the #NNSA's nonproliferation capabilities mean we have off-the-shelf tools for out-of-the-ordinary situations. With at least 400 kgs of enriched uranium in the wind, what would a regime collapse mean for global security? 1/5

BREAKING: Iran has launched missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar and possibly facilities in Iraq. First unconfirmed videos from Qatar show multiple interceptors airborne.

U.S. Officials Concede They Don’t Know Whereabouts of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile The director of general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he believed Tehran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear material had been moved before the strikes. David Sanger www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...

Your new go-to reference article re: US strikes against Iran's nuclear sites www.cfr.org/article/us-i...

Trump's decision to bomb Iran had little to do with intelligence. For years, including when he was last in office, the public U.S. intel assessment has been the same: Iran was not trying to build a nuclear weapon.

The U.S. has entered Israel’s war against Iran. President Trump said the U.S. had struck Fordo, Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear facility, as well as two other sites. Follow live updates. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...

Short term implications of US strikes in Iran: (1) What are the likely targets like US military bases in the region and which (not whether) American servicemembers are at risk? (2) Bomb assessment with more than imagery & impact, i.e. did they obliterate the facilities and bury the fissile material?

Helene Cooper reports "a number of B2 bombers were used to hit Fordo" @nytimes.com

IAEA DG Grossi confirms strikes at Fordow and Isfahan (Esfahan).

What are Israel's aims for the strikes? Cripple Iran's nuclear program, stymie the Trump Administration's upcoming talks, scheduled to take place this weekend, at minimum.

Iran has been months away from a nuclear weapon since ~2007. Whatever holds Khamenei back is political, not technical. Politics are worth keeping in mind because (1) some Iranians still oppose a bomb and (2) bombing them will settle that argument in favor of the other Iranians.

It looks like Israel's strike against Iran was against both the nuclear program and military leaders. A number of specific sites associated with the nuclear program were named by various observers. We will see the damage tomorrow and later in satellite photos. 1/