I was able to see an early screening of "A House of Dynamite." Americans need to see this movie and remember why nuclear attack is vastly more terrifying than any other threat to our existence. www.netflix.com/title/81744537

"...(Type 26) is sailing in company with two uncrewed escorts who are using AI to work in tandem with the warship. (...) It is my aim to have the first of our uncrewed escort ships sailing alongside our Royal Navy warships within the next two years.”"

“This was not an accident, obviously, given the number of drones,” said Hodges. “This was a rehearsal. To probe, and find out how good are our early warning systems, what are our reaction times.”

Polish and Dutch fighters, directed by Italian early warning aircraft, German air defenses on alert. Dutch PM: “I’m glad that Dutch F35 fighter jets were able to provide support. The Netherlands stands shoulder to shoulder with our NATO ally Poland.” Common defense working as designed.

Worst incident in a while.

Pretty essential read blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2020/06/09/w...

This is absolutely right. But it's not inevitable that AI will impact nuclear weapons decisions; a hundred humans would need to hand decisions over to machines. We have the power and agency to stop it. (1/3)

This issue is bigger than just "robots launch nukes." Every launch requires a thousand human decisions. Humans have saved us from nuclear disaster before. What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?

Very good example of why ballistic missile submarines are a bad choice for nuclear signaling. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/u...

Trump: “The USA is fully prepared for a nuclear war with Russia.”

A good roundup on the context. www.twz.com/sea/question...

You might hear #tsunami warning in the Pacific and think about Japanese nuclear power plants and their power backups. Yes, although lessons were learned from Fukushima. Also Russia's Pacific nuclear submarines are based on the Kamchatka peninsula. Thread (1/4) www.newsweek.com/russian-news...

So the total cost of boats 1-3 increased by 12.4% from FY25 to FY26. And that is unlikely to be the end of the cost growth. Which begs a significant question: How much headroom is left before a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach and can the program stay under it? (4/4)

🚀🇺🇸 Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill" adds $150B in defense $. It could accelerate emerging tech adoption to stay ahead of China + bolster nuclear deterrence...or not. Learn more in latest from me, @dumbacher.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social for @cfr.org www.cfr.org/expert-brief...

Yes. Plus the IAEA has credibility because of its inspections, which would be nearly impossible to replicate for AI.

Taiwan is accelerating efforts to develop a high-tech fleet of naval drones—a potential game-changer in its ability to fend off a possible Chinese invasion www.wsj.com/world/asia/t...

Wrong, for a number of reasons, some of which (criticality) are addressed in the comments. Let's do some stoichiometry! 1/

Whether you agree or not with the proposed solutions (no first use, smaller deterrent force, revising sole authority) in this article, it’s time for a real, honest, modern look at options that don’t put service members in an impossible position. Thanks @radiofreetom.bsky.social

New Pew report 85% of Trump's 2020 voters voted for him in 2024, 3% voted for Harris, 1% voted other, and 11% didn't vote. Only 79% of Biden's 2020 voters voted for Harris, 5% voted for Trump, 1% voted other, and 15% didn't vote. www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...

Don't forget that foundational investments in the #NNSA's nonproliferation capabilities mean we have off-the-shelf tools for out-of-the-ordinary situations. With at least 400 kgs of enriched uranium in the wind, what would a regime collapse mean for global security? 1/5

BREAKING: Iran has launched missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar and possibly facilities in Iraq. First unconfirmed videos from Qatar show multiple interceptors airborne.

U.S. Officials Concede They Don’t Know Whereabouts of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile The director of general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he believed Tehran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear material had been moved before the strikes. David Sanger www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...

Your new go-to reference article re: US strikes against Iran's nuclear sites www.cfr.org/article/us-i...

Trump's decision to bomb Iran had little to do with intelligence. For years, including when he was last in office, the public U.S. intel assessment has been the same: Iran was not trying to build a nuclear weapon.

The U.S. has entered Israel’s war against Iran. President Trump said the U.S. had struck Fordo, Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear facility, as well as two other sites. Follow live updates. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...

Short term implications of US strikes in Iran: (1) What are the likely targets like US military bases in the region and which (not whether) American servicemembers are at risk? (2) Bomb assessment with more than imagery & impact, i.e. did they obliterate the facilities and bury the fissile material?

Helene Cooper reports "a number of B2 bombers were used to hit Fordo" @nytimes.com

IAEA DG Grossi confirms strikes at Fordow and Isfahan (Esfahan).

What are Israel's aims for the strikes? Cripple Iran's nuclear program, stymie the Trump Administration's upcoming talks, scheduled to take place this weekend, at minimum.

It is already clear that this is not a limited attack on core nuclear sites. The target set is broad and includes top military leadership in a way that Iran will see as regime threatening. The IRGC chief is dead. That is likely to drive more expansive Iranian retaliation.

Iran has been months away from a nuclear weapon since ~2007. Whatever holds Khamenei back is political, not technical. Politics are worth keeping in mind because (1) some Iranians still oppose a bomb and (2) bombing them will settle that argument in favor of the other Iranians.

It looks like Israel's strike against Iran was against both the nuclear program and military leaders. A number of specific sites associated with the nuclear program were named by various observers. We will see the damage tomorrow and later in satellite photos. 1/

Link: appropriations.house.gov/schedule/hea...

Interesting to hear a Ukrainian official state the theory of victory simply & explicitly. Ukrainian deputy defence minister: “This is a war of technology: whoever has the bigger amount and the faster scaling solution will win”

The so-called "AI moratorium" in the big bill is an existential threat to tech accountability and state sovereignty generally, not just a minor AI special treatment. It defines AI to mean any meaningful use of a computer, blocks enforcement of state laws against "AI", and has broken exceptions. 1/6

Based on what I've seen credibly reported over the last 2-3 hours, it is fair to now call this a full-scale war.

I’ve been expecting nuclear proliferation to become more likely as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine. But I have to admit that I didn’t quite expect it to become a casual morning radio conversation even in Sweden

“predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account. We have to believe that, in all circumstances, these allies will be on our side.” —Portuguese Minister of Defense. www.airdatanews.com/instead-of-f...

Without extended deterrence, this is the next debate.

Two B-52 bombers (60-0007 and 60-0044) are heading east toward the Baltic. Flyover of Stockholm apparently planned around 13:00 local time. Both are nuclear-capable (but not armed in this flight).

Ahem, Taiwan, call your office.

Problem: real. This solution: dirty, slow, likely inefficient, expensive, and to require ally and partner support. My 2023 report on innovation that could help address U.S. critical mineral demand 🔽 assets.iqt.org/pdfs/Critica...

Three European aerospace companies want to join up to compete with Elon Musk’s SpaceX, setting up an early test of whether Europe is serious about creating global industrial giants.

Instead of fixating on cheap drones, the Pentagon should carefully invest in a mix of inexpensive and high-end airpower, argues @spettyjohn.bsky.social.

Not to mention the risks of nuclear accidents and security incidents rising as more countries seek the bomb.

FT Exclusive: The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces. www.ft.com/content/c58f...