📊#IFSSatStat: Meeting NATO defence spending commitments would be equivalent to spending an extra £36 billion, or £500 per person, a year in current terms. This increase would mark the end of the decades-long 'peace dividend' and reshape the British state.

One of my favourite charts from our new report on defence spending: For decades, the 'peace dividend' of falling defence spending as a share of GDP has allowed more spending on things like health without such a big rise in the size of the state. That is no longer the case

NEW PODCAST: The end of the peace dividend? UK defence in a changing world 🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

Want to work at IFS? Applications are now open for the following roles: 📊 Research Economist (apply by Sun 26 Oct) 📊 Research Economist: PhD job market (apply by Sat 15 Nov) 📊 Postdoctoral Fellow (apply by Sat 15 Nov) Find out more and apply here: ifs.org.uk/jobs

Something else I hadn't clocked until now: the UK is no longer the second biggest spender on defence within NATO. We've been overtaken by Germany. Full chapter from this year's IFS Green Budget is here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

In new @theifs.bsky.social work, we examine the fiscal challenge of the UK's commitment to higher defence spending. If met, for the first time in a long time health and defence spending would likely rise simultaneously (as a % of GDP). This would change the shape and/or size of the state.

Some great charts in this report. This one is my favourite. The UK has signed up the new NATO commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence. The scale of the increase is fiscally challenging, and we've given ourselves a decade. Poland, on the other hand, has done it in just two years.

We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today on UK defence spending. Defence spending commitments, if met, will have a large impact on the shape and/or size of the state. We cover lots of important aspects of defence spending, including international comparisons and impacts on growth

NEW: Honouring the NATO commitment to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 would reshape the British state. @maxwarner.bsky.social & @beeboileau.bsky.social's new IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the past and future of UK defence spending: [THREAD:]

It's now been three years Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget. 📰 @benzaranko.bsky.social writes for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about what we can learn from the events of September 2022, and what Rachel Reeves should keep in mind ahead of November's Budget ⬇️ observer.co.uk/news/politic...

Three years on from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget, I've written for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about its legacy and the lessons the Chancellor, her team and her backbench MPs (including would-be MPs) should keep in mind this autumn. This point is especially important.

Key charts from a great thread. Careful analysis by my @theifs.bsky.social colleagues shows that the two-child benefit limit has had no detectable impact on school-readiness at age 5, including among the poorer children most likely to be affected. Key policy takeaway: scrapping the ... [1/3]

The 7th World Bank / @odi.global / IFS Public Finance Conference starts tomorrow, with keynotes from LSE's Tim Besley and Norwegian University of Life Sciences' Annette Alstadsaeter. 🖥️ Find out more and join the livestreams here: www.worldbank.org/en/events/20...

Educational attainment gaps between richer and poorer children are well documented. Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children: [THREAD:🧵]

EVENT: IFS recruitment event 2025 Wednesday 1 October | 5pm – 6pm | Online via Zoom Want to work at IFS? Join our recruitment event to meet our staff, ask questions about life at IFS and find out more about our hiring process. ➡️ Find out more and sign up here: ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-r...

How we can help employers take on more apprentices? Sir Philip Augar discusses the options for increasing the number of apprenticeships in the UK on our podcast. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

'The distance of travel from home 100 years ago was 6 miles for an 8 or 9-year old... By 1970, it got down to 1 mile. 1990 it was 1/2 a mile. Now it's 300 yards.' Baroness Anne Longfield discusses how childhood has changed in the UK on our podcast. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

📊#IFSSatStat: Over two thirds of the public sector productivity improvements in the government’s plans are set to come from the NHS in England.   What happens to NHS productivity will in large part determine whether these plans are delivered.

LIVE NOW: Our IFS Green Budget event with new analysis of the government's plans for public sector productivity, and a response from @JeremyHuntMP, starts now. 🖥️ Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-zX... ❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/4AeCbn...

We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today looking at the government's ambitious plans for public sector productivity. If productivity growth disappoints, the govt will have to choose between worse public service performance than planned or topping up budgets

'I'm more worried about the adults than the kids' @samfr.bsky.social joins us on the final episode of our 'Are the kids ok?' podcast series to give a more optimistic assessment of the state of education in the UK. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

NEW: The government is banking on big rises in public sector productivity to deliver its plans for public services. @maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich’s new IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the outlook for public sector productivity: [THREAD : 1/6]

📆 Join our IFS Green Budget 2025 event at 9:30am tomorrow where we'll present new analysis on the current government's plans for improving public sector productivity, with a response from Jeremy Hunt MP. 📆 Find out more and sign up for an email reminder here: ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...

We're now just one week away from this year's 7th World Bank / @odi.global / IFS Public Finance Conference, featuring research from from Brazil, Uganda, South Africa, Zambia and more. 🖥️ Explore the full agenda and register to join online here: www.worldbank.org/en/events/20...

NEW: #IFSWorkingPaper: The rise of online dating and heterogamous marriages 📗 Read Yujung Hwang, Fangzhu Yang and @paulaaureo.bsky.social's new paper on how the diffusion of online dating platforms has shaped intermarriage patterns by race and education here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

NEW: Previous state pension age increases have not been felt equally: women already out of employment in their late 50s were particularly hard hit by the rise from 60 to 65 in the 2010s. THREAD on Jonathan Cribb, Anna Henry and @heidikarj.bsky.social’s new research on state pension rises:

Not a surprise, but no less significant for that: this OBR decision will shape much of the fiscal arithmetic this autumn. The other big Budget-relevant decision this week lies with the Monetary Policy Committee, who will decide whether to continue with active bond sales. 1/3

Would you take better care of your health today if you knew you’d be richer in retirement? We study Chile’s 1981 pension reform with a fuzzy Regression Kink Design on linked admin + household panel data. Answer: yes. Preventive care rises (healthy behaviours modestly), and old-age mortality falls.

NEW: #IFSWorkingPaper: More to live for: health investment responses to expected retirement wealth in Chile 📗 Read Grant Miller, Nieves Valdés and @papiteide.bsky.social's new paper here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

EVENT: What should the upcoming State Pension Age Review consider? Wed 17 Sept | 10:30 – 11:30 | Online Join our event this week on the crucial context for the challenges the government faces in setting the state pension age. ➡️ Sign up here: ifs.org.uk/events/what-...

The online event will feature new analysis of the government's productivity ambitions from my IFS colleagues + thoughts and reflections from Jeremy Hunt MP, who who commissioned a major review of public sector productivity as Chancellor. Come!

A key factor at the next election will be the state of Britain's public services. That will depend on whether the government can make those services more productive, to deliver more without huge cash injections. Join our @theifs.bsky.social event on Friday to hear more: ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...

"1 in 6 children actually live with families who have high levels of vulnerability around addiction and poor mental health or domestic abuse." Baroness Anne Longfield joins us for our podcast on the difficulties facing families in the UK. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

"You're just trying to get through the day." @ckfarquharson.bsky.social explains the scarcity mindset: how constant financial strain can deplete parents’ energy, affect decision-making, and reduce opportunities for interactions with children. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

How have family dynamics changed over time in the UK? @helenmiller.bsky.social, @ckfarquharson.bsky.social and Baroness Anne Longfield discuss on our podcast how family dynamics can influence the early years. 🎧 Listen to the episode here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

📊 #IFSSatStat: Between 2008 and 2019, the public sector became a less common first place of employment for graduates from the lowest-ranked universities, while becoming more common for those from the highest-ranked universities.

"Mothers are spending almost 3 hours a day doing childcare, 50 years ago that was something like 90 minutes." @ckfarquharson.bsky.social and @helenmiller.bsky.social discuss the changing labour times of parents at home and its implications on family life. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

Govt plans for public service spending and performance rely on ambitious productivity plans. Next Friday we have an @theifs.bsky.social online event looking at these plans and their implications, with new analysis from us and reflections from @jeremyhuntmp.bsky.social. ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...

Attitudes are also key, and difficult to shift (as seen in Scotland). Schools and teachers must believe that providing for SEND is a core part of their job, and feel able to do it [6/6]

The present system creates legal entitlements pupil by pupil. But, there is practically no way to judge whether the £4bn increase in funding has delivered value-for-money. The evidence on the best approaches is pretty thin. The net result is high cost and patchy quality [3/6]

Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6] ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

NEW: The public sector has become a less common first place of employment for those with lower levels of education, while becoming a more common destination for the most qualified. @clarabismarck.bsky.social and Matthew Nibloe’s new IFS working paper documents who enters the public sector:

NEW: The SEND system in England is broken and reform is long overdue. @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape’s new briefing, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the rising costs and challenges of England’s SEND system, and the government’s options for reform: ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

We're now just two weeks away from the 7th @WorldBank / @ODI_Global / IFS Public Finance Conference, this year hosted in London. ➡️ Find out more about the conference and register to join online here: www.worldbank.org/en/events/20...

NEW PODCAST: Are the kids ok? Your questions answered @helenmiller.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social answer listeners' questions with expert guests from our IFS Zooms In mini series on the challenges facing children and young people today. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

Phenomenal news - the birth cohorts are one of the UK's richest and most unique data resources. I can't wait to see all the amazing evidence that we'll gain from this newest study!

"Meeting those benchmarks at age 16 becomes a really important driver of your opportunities down the line" @ckfarquharson.bsky.social discusses the improvement in GCSE attainment over time and its broader implications. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

"College spending is down 11% in real terms per student since 2010. School sixth forms down 23% per student, since 2010." @ckfarquharson.bsky.social explains how the further education sector has experienced a decline in funding. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

NEW: #IFSWorkingPaper: Labour force transitions at older ages: burnout, recovery, and reverse retirement 📗 Read Lindsay Jacobs and Suphanit Piyapromdee's paper highlighting the central role of stress dynamics in shaping retirement behaviour here: ifs.org.uk/publications...