You can see pretty clearly when the President decided to reassure a worried nation.

Remember to be wary, as today is the only day of the year that incorrect or misleading information is posted on the internet.

My guess is they want France to deny airspace, they don't want NATO allies to help with the Straight of Hormuz. They want reasons to end NATO and they will create these reasons in a way that they can blame Europe for the end of NATO.

No matter what Trump’s response is (and we have a pretty good idea what it will be), no defense secretary has ever so elegantly denied the U.S. commitment to Article 5.

In what world is it okay for the Defense Secretary to make multi-million dollar investments in defense companies: a) Ever; b) In the run-up to starting a war in the Middle East FT has the scoop: www.ft.com/content/744e... In a functional democracy, he would offer his resignation tonight.

Den Teil mit den Zahnspangen glaube ich sofort. www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...

Don't forget the clocks go forward tonight, as they do every night, pitiless and unstoppable, silent witnesses to our inevitable decay.

i really expected better analytically from the Atlantic after now 4 years of war😵‍💫

Following up on yesterday's post about the #Roman shipwreck cargo discovered in Lake Neuchâtel: what a stunning photo of the pottery vessels on the lake bottom! 🤩 📷 octopusfoundation.org/en/project/e...

Crazy numbers. The German academic system in a nutshell (you can't write nutshell without "nuts"...)

We are hiring a tenure track (!) senior researcher in political economy! This is obviously a great job (permanent without teaching obligation) and I hope you all apply. However, I would like to take a moment to share just how significant this is in the German academic context ⬇️

A remarkable archaeological discovery beneath the waters of Lake Neuchâtel! In November 2024, the remains of a Roman cargo ship, dating 1st c. AD, was discovered. The wreck contained hundreds of pottery vessels, Spanish olive oil amphorae, tools and weapons, including the #sword shown here. 🧵1/2 🏺

One thing I didn't put in here but is also at play: whatever markets predict, the opposite thing becomes more likely. If markets think Trump will cave and accept humiliation, oil trends lower, making him less likely to do so. If they think he'll fight, it goes up, making him more likely to cave.

In chart form:

Would have been a great ending sequence for "Gangs of New York".

An optional historical reading recommendation for your consideration. "Voting Behavior and Public Employment in Nazi Germany," by Dr. Stephan E. Maurer @stephanmaurer.bsky.social, published in 2018. You can read the complete essay for free here: drive.google.com/file/d/1N4y9....

This chart from El País shows that Spain concentrates 90% of its population in just 2.6% of its territory. A fun measure that feels a bit more intuitive than usual population density measures. Belgium is at the other end of the spectrum btw.

Well worth a DeepL-assisted read. Ghastly times.

Die Entscheidung ist gefallen: Die Deutsche Marine soll sowohl die - verzögerten - F126-Fregatten als auch vierMeko-200-Fregatten bekommen

1️⃣ 1 euro de despesa fiscal per cada 2 euros d'inversió privada 2️⃣ 30% d'increment en les instal·lacions privades d'autoconsum associat a l'execució de bonificacions fiscals en un municipi 3️⃣ L'existència de l'ordenança no és suficient: cal fer efectives les bonificacions I més dades a l'informe!

#AvaluacióImpacte! 📣 S'ha publicat l'estudi d'avaluació de les deduccions d'IBI per a promoure instal·lacions fotovoltaiques, elaborat per a la @diputaciobarcelona.bsky.social Algunes troballes al següent post...💭 Però ja pots llegir l'informe sencer a l'enllaç! 👇 🔗 www.diba.cat/documents/55...

Please submit, health economists, and share widely!

replace this list with journal names and it's the typical life of an econ paper

This is the main reason for Europe to not get involved in Hormuz. Trump is incapable of committing to anything (except supporting Russia). So there is no payoff. Even if we could open the Strait, even if we did open it, he'd be back to threatening the future of NATO the next month.

Aside from everything else, Europeans have come to realise that it's impossible to make deals with Trump. You can sign a piece of paper but 3 weeks later Trump comes up with something else and something else and something else. Whatever you do, you can't win

Let's be clear: you would not be pulling THAADs from South Korea and moving a Marine Expeditionary Unit from Japan to the Gulf two weeks after launching a war on Iran if you had properly anticipated the fallout it would be likely to cause.

this is what happens when people in office think the armed forces should prioritize "warfighters" and not "logistics"

The senior counselor for trade and manufacturing to president Trump is writing...

This war in Iran is a perfect illustration of the dangers of autocratic rule — and right now we indisputably have the foreign policy of a personalistic autocracy. Trump got high on his Venezuelan supply, and immediately got the entire world into a completely unnecessary crisis.

#OTD in 1862 the Battle of Pea Ridge ends with the rout of Confederate general Earl Van Dorn’s army by Gen. Samuel Curtis’ Army of the Southwest, following a two day struggle on the Ozark Plateau in NW Arkansas. The strategic U.S. victory ends rebel hopes of “liberating” Missouri from U.S. control.

I wonder if a drone has hit Dubai Marina. Or whether it was just debris from a successful interception. If only loads of Dubai based accounts, including Isabel Oakeshott's, could tell me.

Things used in everyday life are the real archaeological treasures! This sewing needle was made from animal bone some 13,000 years ago. Some designs simply don't need to be improved, because form and functions were perfectly matched from the start Length: 5.6 cm 📷 Landesmuseum Württemberg 🏺

Swiss F-35 numbers likely "around 30". Government can adjust partly for inflation, but not for the full increased cost, so that the initially projected 36 are not possible within the referendum-approved budget: www.news.admin.ch/de/newnsb/t7...

Matched corporate securities are used to estimate the stock-bond premium in the London stock market over the period 1870–1929, from William N. Goetzmann and K. Geert Rouwenhorst www.nber.org/papers/w34899

🚀 I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, providing a first assassment of the missile war over the Gulf region. In short: The U.S.-Israeli counter-TEL strategy appears to be working. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/race-to-th... Short summary below. 1/5

📢 En KSNET lanzamos #KSNETWorkingPapers Una serie de trabajos académicos que nacen de los proyectos que desarrollamos y que convierten la práctica en evidencia ¡Y estará todo aquí! 👇 www.ksnet.eu/workingpapers/ Abrimos hilo 🧵

"Christodoulides also requested that Berlin deploy a frigate during a phone conversation Monday with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The chancellor responded positively, and a formal decision from Berlin is expected imminently, according to the officials."

Come to Europe, friends! The European Research Council (ERC) has just confirmed increased ERC funding for top global researchers moving to Europe. Drop me an email if you want to know more. erc.europa.eu/news-events/...

In case you need to pick a side.

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/t... Articulating any kind of principal ethical concern, as Anthropic’s Dario Amodei did with reference to using his AI products for large scale surveillance of US citizens oder in autonomous drones, makes you a “left wing nut job” and lose your Pentagon contract

New in JUE: The air quality effects of Uber, by Luis Sarmiento, Yeong Jae Kim. #econsky #urbanecon

New survey article on social mobility in Western countries by Nybom, Rodríguez Mora & Salvanes: www.rfberlin.com/wp-content/u...

Empfehlenswerter F.A.Z. Beitrag: Europas Poker um die EZB-Präsidentschaft www.faz.net/aktuell/fina...

🗞️ Dilluns es va presentar el número 109 de la revista Nota d'Economia, i les nostres sòcies @elenacostas.bsky.social i @mariasanchezvidal.bsky.social hi col·laboren amb un article: 📝 Els salaris i la desigualtat d'ingressos Llegeix-lo aquí! 👇 🔗 economia.gencat.cat/ca/ambits-ac...

As it is en vogue to describe Germany’s political landscape as resembling “Weimar conditions,” its worth taking a closer look at the era’s high levels of political fragility. In just 14 years of existence, the Weimar Republic saw 20 different governments. On average, a cabinet lasted only 244 days.

Wow that franchise took a dark turn