“we might go to war with Europe over Greenland” is not normal behavior and cannot be slotted into normal political rhetoric by people who would like to reestablish normal political relations with Europe someday

Trump will likely try to make Denmark choose between NATO and Greenland, and wider Europe between Greenland and Ukraine. But luckily Trump has also demonstrated that under his leadership, any US security guarantee won’t be worth much. So the choice should be simple.

If you're looking for a sign to switch careers: this is the sign.

Do we get to call the price rises on European goods that Americans now face the Danegeld?

4/ Denmark sent around 10,000 troops to Afghanistan, in the context of the one time in history that Article 5 has been invoked. 43 soldiers died, the highest per capita death rate of any member of the coalition. The dishonor of this threat will be a permanent stain.

Should the EU retaliate against US tariffs or ignore them? I can see good arguments on both sides. But Europe can and should: continue the military buildup in Greenland; junk the “deal” that rewards bad US behaviour and runs contrary to the MFN principle: & regulate US tech as we see fit

It doesn't seem as if Donald Trump is aware that the EU countries have a single market and are a customs union. So if you impose tariffs on Danish goods, but not on Polish goods, you can just drive the goods to Poland and send them from there, thereby bypassing the tariffs.

We will soon see mysterious amounts of Lego and Ozempic going to the US through Poland

This map exposes the Greenland lie. The US used to have a massive military footprint here. Today, they operate just ONE base. If Trump were actually worried about Russian vessels, he would simply open more bases, which Denmark allows

www.politico.eu/article/merc... Ufff

BREAKING: A full-scale airlift is running around the clock, transporting troops and military equipment to Greenland. The operation is extensive, “beyond anything we’ve tried before,” a source tells DR. Danish F-35 fighter planes and warships from European allies involved. www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...

Incredible shot of the Hellenic Navy's new frigate Kimon being welcomed yesterday by the trireme Olympias and the armoured cruiser Averof (photo by Nick Dendris)

It reminds me a bit of Brexit: we now spend so much time and effort solving a problem that is unnecessary and self-made - while there is an actual war going on on our continent. My thoughts on the Greenland discussion 👇 Full interview www.welt.de/videos/video...

Three Greek warships, particularly impressive Background - ancient trireme Olympias (replica, obviously) Middle ground - Kimon class frigate (brand new) Foreground - Pisa class armoured cruiser Georgios Averof (launched 1910, museum ship)

Only few pieces of furniture from early medieval times have been preserved. Due to the water-logged condition of the area, many wooden objects such as this terrific chair made from maple and ash wood survived in a burial at Trossingen. Dating 580 AD. 📷 @almbawue.bsky.social 🏺 #archaeology

wikipedia turns 25 today! the last unenshittified major website! backbone of online info! triumph of humanity! powered by urge of unpaid randos to correct each other! somehow mostly reliable! "good thing wikipedia works in practice, because it sure doesn't work in theory" - old wiki adage

Spread the word.

Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, Canada and France will participate alongside Denmark to expanded military exercises in Greenland. Scoop with @victorjack.bsky.social and Chris Lunday www.politico.eu/article/denm...

Folks in the US still like to treat the whole Greenland invasion stuff as sufficiently unserious to engage with, but it is sufficiently serious that NATO allies are actively deploying tripwire forces to deter the US. That is *already* a political and actual cost to them, and to US relationships

"The world until recently believed that US-China decoupling was on the way. It turns out that most countries are now scrambling to de-risk from America." My column. as.ft.com/r/83099001-d...

Das #WIFO sucht eine:n Ökonom:in (30 bis 39 Std./Woche) für die Forschungsgruppe Arbeitsmarktökonomie, Einkommen und soziale Sicherheit. Wir freuen uns über Bewerbungen und Retweets! ➡️ Weitere Informationen: buff.ly/rg57QlY

Wiese

Some countries that have prosecuted or threatened to prosecute central bankers for the purpose of political intimidation or punishment for monetary policy decisions: Argentina, Russia, Turkey, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

What can history teach us about what happens when a populist strongman with an idiosyncratic taste for low interest rates undermines central bank independence?

For those who don’t follow central banking. We should be clear. This is an attempt by Trump to bully the central bank and have the Fed make policy he likes. It goes against a century of tradition in the U.S., and based on tons of research is bad for the economy. Another low for this administration.

Schweden plant neue territoriale Luftverteidigung (und nimmt das Geld dafür in die Hand) nach den Erfahrungen der Ukraine (h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social)

Future historians are going to have make up all sorts of complicated and structural reasons to explain the collapse of NATO and the Arctic War of 2026 because the truth is just way too stupid to believe.

Ukrainian scientists release rare underwater footage of penguins in Antarctica.

Martin Peterson's creative response to being banned from teaching Plato (shared with his permission).

Since Jan 1 2025, which feels like four trillion years ago, research has been shared on here 5 million whole-ass times. Bluesky recently passed 2 billion posts IN TOTAL. So 0.25% of the entire site's traffic was citations to research. That is actually massively high. Is it? Yes. Here's why.

Senate is voting NOW on this war powers resolution to block Trump from using military force "within or against Venezuela" without approval from Congress. Led by Kaine, endorsed by Rand Paul, Schiff and Schumer. Needs a simple majority to pass. www.kaine.senate.gov/imo/media/do...

I really don’t understand the concept of “bullshit jobs”. People want to spend their money on goods and services, you need those supposedly-BS jobs to produce those goods and services.

What is just crazy about this, aside from the need for this statement at all, is that Greenland already IS in the US sphere of influence. It's far cheaper for the US, in material, security, and reputational terms, to have Denmark continue administering Greenland and work within NATO on security.

1998: Age of Empires II (okay, 1999, but let's gloss over that) Now: Age of Empires II Definitive Edition

I have a new paper w Andrea Prat & Jake Spitz. We show that Republican appointed Supreme Court Justices vote in favor of the richer party by over 70% today, as compared to D’s at 30%. In the 1950s and both were at 50%. This strong trend may contribute to rising inequality. www.nber.org/papers/w34643

The Battle of Stones River concluded #otd in 1863. Braxton Bragg's Confederates attacked enemy positions east of the river but Union artillery inflicted heavy losses; Bragg withdrew the following day. Over 30% of all troops engaged were killed, wounded, or captured/missing.

France has selected the successor to its ageing Boeing E-3F fleet: Saab’s GlobalEye—an increasingly “European” solution that reduces (without fully eliminating) France’s reliance on Washington. www.itamilradar.com/2026/01/01/f...

Is Donald Trump a friend or an enemy of Europe? 48% of Europeans think he is an enemy, only 10% say he is a friend. Only in Poland, more people think he is a friend, rather than an enemy.

Happy new year from GMT+1!

Wichtig: Morgen letzte Chance einen dreiseitigen LinkedIn-Jahresrückblick über die eigenen Erfolge zu posten

One of the small innovations I’m grateful for is the ability to autobuy ETFs every day, in any amount. This incorporates a bunch of other changes in securities markets (index funds, commission-free trading, fractional trading) and makes it easy to slowly accumulate shares of economic growth.

The 2025 Headline of the Year Nominees 🧵

“EU, I hate to bring this up, because I know you’ve already got a lot on you. But… we all thought this was supposed to be the year you could finally start growing..”

Right, I am off work (yes some of us "soldiered" on during Christmas), so got some time to put down coherent thoughts on a range of events. First of all, the Trumpian battleship. Which as part of Trump's "Golden Fleet" even got its (her) own website. 🧵 www.goldenfleet.navy.mil

Actual 2025 tariff rates are, to date, far less than statutory rates, but the costs of the tariffs are mostly borne by the US – estimated tariff pass-through to US prices in 2025 is 94%. Tariffs on imports act like a 1 to 2pp tax on US manufacturing. brentneiman.com/research/GN2...

It’s almost like history is complex and refuses to be boiled down to simple talking points used as proof for something being inevitable ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Merry Christmas!