Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied: — Murphy’s approval rating is -10 — Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents Reasons why Sherrill is still favored: — 72% of undecided voters are women — 62% of undecideds are Harris voters — 18% of Black voters are undecided

New (very timely!) paper with Erin Fitz, @stecula.bsky.social, @matthewhitt.bsky.social & myself, accepted at Behavioural Public Policy entitled "Mindset to Gain? Framing Effects, Need for Chaos, and the Limits of 'Burning It All Down'"--a thread and a link: osf.io/preprints/ps...

My comments w @agtheodoridis.bsky.social on unique survey of former members of Congress, which indicates how far views of former GOP officeholders differ from Republican electorate on democratic norms @BrookingsGov www.brookings.edu/articles/wha...

Manuscript accepted! Manuscript rejected! (Same day.)

Is Belief in Conspiracies Theories More Prevalent Among Republicans and Conservatives? A recent article in @polbehavior.bsky.social ‬by Enders, Farhart, Miller, Uscinski, Saunders, and Drochon finds the answer is no: link.springer.com/article/10.1... #polisky 🧵(1/7)

reading the charges/preliminary evidence against Tyler Robinson...will not make your day. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

When people tell you who they are, believe them.

shooting people is bad

NYT: Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party (not including Texas, btw), Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot. 🔴 Republicans: +2.4M 🔵 Democrats: -2.1M www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/u...

You mostly want your academic work to be relevant...and then...welp... (with @erinfitz.bsky.social) academic.oup.com/poq/article/...

Huge Sports Law News: Judge Wilken approves the House settlement. A major victory for the NCAA and the big time college sports industry. But it's not the end of the story for athlete legal issues, as other litigation--including Title IX and employment cases--awaits. Here's what you need to know:

"Any speculation about the causes of the decline in trust in elites must grapple with the possibility that many elites are not particularly trustworthy... Elite failure has led even harsh critics of populism to recognize that there is at least some truth to populist complaints"

Link to @axios.com coverage: www.axios.com/2025/05/16/b... My thoughts below. We have to be better than this.

Bertrand Russell's Ten Commandments The best answer to fanaticism? *Actual* Liberalism. The best mode of error correction? *Actual* Liberalism. I've had a copy of this on the wall by my desk for over 25 years.

More:

Well, I've found the new epigram for our new bitcoin politics book.

Very proud to announce that my PhD student @erinfitz.bsky.social has been awarded not one, but three(!) sources of dissertation support from NSF, Rapoport, & @electoralintegrity.bsky.social to complete her dissertation research on the domains of risk and trust re: political participation in the US!

Today is a historic day for college sports. Judge Wilken will review the House antitrust settlement. If she approves it, colleges can directly pay players, who will still get full scholarships and NIL deals. It's a brave new world. I answer 20 key questions for @sportico.bsky.social:

Participated in a roundtable today about Kate Krimmel’s great book Divergent Democracy. It was well-timed for the current intra-Dem fighting online abt the right degree of nuance to adopt in their tariff response—just as the economy tanks. The party is truly neurotically pilled on programmaticism!

Tough economic news and perceived focus on tariffs instead of prices has public skeptical about Trump's ability to improve finances But his 50-50 job rating is buoyed by immigration issue, with majority approval on deportations Threading more from latest survey: www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion... 1/

Here's a link to the article I am talking about in the paste below: www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/202...

"American universities will need to convince policymakers and the general public of the following three points. 1) American Universities are the engine of American prosperity. 2) Universities are not partisan actors. 3) Universities can police themselves." www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

at last, product market fit

Popularity, brand, and the ability to win elections matters. www.axios.com/2025/03/24/d...

Worth a read: humeanbeing.substack.com/p/a-capitula...

Pragmatism doesn't live in a D+20 district (like AOC's) folks. “I can’t do what she [AOC] does, because we live in a purple state and I’m a pragmatist. Everyone you mentioned has a lot of words, but what have they actually done to change the situation with Donald Trump?” thehill.com/homenews/sen...

I am worried about APSA this year. International travel in the context of this administration is a major risk for many of our colleagues. I wrote a short letter to APSA to address this. I haven't done this before, but would folks want to sign something like that? docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Welp.

Two things worth reading this morning, Ruy Teixeira's piece "How Deep is the Hole Democrats Are in?" and then I'm half way through Klein and Thompson's book Abundance, which is really good so far: www.liberalpatriot.com/p/how-deep-i... and www.simonandschuster.com/books/Abunda...

I’m told this is a real letter. It basically says, “We’ll destroy Columbia unless you destroy it first.”

So glad @leedrutman.bsky.social could come to campus to share his thoughts with us! Thanks Lee!

What an absolute own goal by ABC. What a truly silly move. It's hard not to wish for your continued failure as a news organization.

Yes, it's full of Christian imagery, yes, it's about post-war Europe, but I think about lines 7&8 at least five times a day on average, especially when I get on social media.

Last month, a group of moderate Democratic consultants, campaign staffers, elected officials & party leaders gathered in Loudoun County, Virginia, for a retreat where they plotted their party’s comeback. www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Amidst all of this (/me waves hands wildly pointing at everything), we've gone full Rand. Elon posted this today.

political identity outweighs other social identities in informing citizens' attitudes & projected behaviors towards others. Democrats dislike Republicans more than Republicans dislike Democrats; cross-cutting identities do not dampen social polarization onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Musgrave with a banger: "Academia will persevere. There are other governments, other societies, other values. What else have we learned from history other than that no patron remains generous forever?" musgrave.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

Oh yes, Homer’s famous “Tes Thdpssssps.” 👍🏻

Dilemma/perspective: "All 5 are true: 1) DOGE has scrapped many stupid projects. 2) DOGE has axed many useful academic projects. 3) Universities lost their way-inviting the ongoing massive backlash. 4) The backlash is generally popular. 5) Universities have done little to regain the public’s trust."

Chancellors Diermeier (Vandy) and Martin (WashU) in the Chronicle: www.chronicle.com/article/univ...

What a quote in the Atlantic by @chatterton.bsky.social.

We somehow have to reconcile these two different perspectives to adapt to this new world in which we find ourselves, especially while Republicans hold power. archive.is/cRH6s (which is an ungated version of this: www.nytimes.com/2025/02/14/o...) versus: unsafescience.substack.com/p/we-tried-t...

When elites of all stripes dehumanize others, especially their political opponents, trust further deteriorates. Some on both the left and right appear to welcome this erosion, perhaps in an effort to further destabilize the political landscape.

Some thoughts this morning--a thread... Critics of Donald Trump—particularly those on the left—often see themselves as defending democracy by highlighting the harm he’s caused (and continues to cause) to its institutions and norms.