New detail from Verstka on Ilan Shor's cross border transactions vehicle. A7 reported ₽3.6 billion in revenue after September 2024, but it handled ₽292 billion in transactions, predominantly debt securities. Translation? Shor is moving a sizeable amount of cash. verstka.media/moldavskij-oli…

Latvia's FIU allowed Peter Aven to transfer €235 million from an unnamed, unsanctioned Central Asian bank to his frozen bank account in Latvia. Aven hopes that with his Russian assets sold off, he'll be removed from the EU sanctions regime. www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/03/31/p...

The admin’s decision to shutter media incl. VOA greatly erodes press freedom & information access, undermining democracy & freedom in the US & across the globe - a disastrous gift to repressive, autocratic regimes. My @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social piece - www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

NEW: My latest at FDD. General License 8 was a mistake and President Trump was right to let it die. Now, it's time to comprehensively sanction the remaining shadow fleet tankers and aggressively wield secondary sanctions against price cap violators. www.fdd.org/analysis/pol...

Really liked this read from Politico’s @gabrielgavin.bsky.social “There’s no EU consensus on when it might relax sanctions, no matter what Trump offers the Russians. Now, Russia's neighbors are saying it's time to lay out red lines.” www.politico.eu/article/dona...

Rheinmetall is looking to build solid-fuel motors for missiles with a range of up to 2,000 km. Big for Europe's missile industry if true and a major step in the direction of setting up a European production line for short and medium-range ballistic missiles. 1/2 www.hartpunkt.de/rheinmetall-...

File under “Not Great”: A consortium led by BIS Entity-Listed China Communications Construction Company will build a Black Sea port in Anaklia, Georgia. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/w...

An internal report from Evraz, a steel firm in which R. Abramovich holds a 30% stake, found that employees at their Oregon plant bypassed safety tests for armored vehicles. Why an Abramovich-owned firm is allowed to operate in the US at all is beyond me. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Is Twitter back down for anyone else? Is this outage #3 of the day?

Something many of us expected — Romania’s Central Electoral Bureau denied Georgescu from registering for May’s presidential election. Protests ongoing. Barring a highly unlikely reversal, Georgescu won’t be allowed on the ballot in May. hotnews.ro/breaking-can...

If the President decides to ratchet up sanctions on Russia, he should first target energy revenues as well as industrial wholesalers that supply Russia’s military industrial complex. Limiting Moscow’s revenue + exponentially increasing input prices will tighten the vice.

(Full) sanctions relief now could mean: -Huge boost in energy revenues -Rush to stockpile industrial inputs like ball bearings, chips, CNCs -Plunge in interest rates that facilitate defense-industrial capital access Under those conditions, Moscow could fully rearm in 2-3 years.

Interesting — one of the local heads of PSD in Costanta, Ion Dumitrache, was implicated in a corruption investigation alleging he rigged millions in state contracts to boost the Midia Shipyard, which he controls. m.digi24.ro/stiri/actual...

Poignant: “You can measure this war in what people were forced to leave behind: a rose garden abandoned in Melitopol; a stuffed animal forgotten on the outskirts of Mariupol; the blue velvet balls hung on the tree every New Year’s holiday, stored in a box in Berdiansk. All gone.” t.co/yKEZVkvR6X

NEW: My first policy brief at FDD, alongside my colleague Max Meizlish: If South Africa continues to court Russian and Iranian nuclear cooperation, the U.S. should immediately suspend ratification of its' Section 123 agreement with Pretoria and impose sanctions. www.fdd.org/analysis/pol...

Per NYT, the U.S. is exploring a deal in which the U.S. would relax sanctions on Belarusian banks and potash exports in exchange for the release of political prisoners. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/15/w...

After multiple Shahed drones fell on Moldova during strikes on Odesa overnight, the Moldovan MFA summoned the Russian Ambassador. This is how he was greeted:

Existing networks are being reconfigured, selling entities, tankers, and insurance providers that are not sanctioned. Some are existing outfits that haven't been sanctioned, while others are replacing designated ones. finance.yahoo.com/news/india-b...

Some really remarkable photos of Tiraspol mid-energy crisis, published by Zona de Securitate. 3rd: Tiraspol’s Elektromash plant, which allegedly continues to run. 4th: Sheriff HQ is dark. Not that anyone was working in the building anyways.

After Duma speaker Volodin said recipients of USAID money in Russia should “confess and repent” publicly. Both Defense Minister Belousov and United Russia received USAID money at different points during the 2000s, per Agentsvo. www.agents.media/kogo-volodin...

A relief — contrary to Maia Sandu’s comments yesterday, the Moldovan Judges Evaluation Commission says the USAID freeze won’t affect vetting of judges. The commission gets $1.5m from the State Department to support vetting processes. radiomoldova.md/p/47085/judg...

Some good news — Interpol has issued a wanted notice (not a Red Notice) for Vlad Plahotniuc, after an appeal from Moldovan authorities in November. Worth mentioning — Plaha has at least three passports, if not more. www.zdg.md/stiri/ultima...

Really pleased to see BIS and OFAC get Haas Automation on export control violations. Will hopefully have chilling effect. Important detail - this includes transactions going back to 2019. Hoping to see similar actions in EU, Japan, and Taiwan. Still more work to be done. www.bis.gov/press-releas...

Really interesting Moldova note from today’s OFAC designations — Ilan Shor was purportedly involved in a cross-border sanctions evasion scheme between a Kyrgyz bank and Promsvyazbank. First time I’ve seen Shor directly cited as a sanctions evasion risk factor.

Day 2 of Transnistria’s gas crisis. Transnistrian authorities saying 131 schools, 147 kindergartens, and 130 state buildings were disconnected from central heating. The region has roughly two weeks of reserves. t.me/moldovasays/...

Day 1 of Transnistria’s gas freeze. Central heating and hot water have been completely shut off. TSV (news outlet affiliated with Sheriff) is promoting a hotline largely dedicated to where citizens can find firewood. The so-called MOD will begin arranging transport of firewood to cities tomorrow.

Sabotage in the Baltics continue — Finland detained a tanker carrying Russian oil on the suspicion that it had severed undersea cables on Christmas Day. www.wsj.com/world/europe...

Finnish grid company Fingrid has reported another cable break in the Baltic Sea. The power supply via the Estlink 2 cable, which connects Finland and Estonia, was cut off. This is the 4th incident in the region in a month theins.ru/news/277510

Concerning SVR press release regarding Moldova’s gas crisis, claiming Sandu wants a military seizure of MGRES. Moscow will probably end up covering supply using Trans-Balkan pipeline — but Russia has always used gas negotiations to pressure Chisinau into different economic/political concessions.

1). Investment is good 2). Softbank Vision Fund also promised to do $100b alongside Saudi PIF and completely fell on its face (and lost $30b + in FY2023).

The fact that @evangershkovich was able to take his terrible injustice and use it to inform a significant and invaluable investigation like this is remarkable. On DKRO, the CI arm of the FSB responsible for targeting Americans: www.wsj.com/world/russia...

From Elina Ribakova and Theodore Bunzel: “With stronger enforcement of Western export controls, Russia would be forced to undertake a costly reorientation of military supply chains, causing disruptions and shortages in the supply of weapons to the frontline.” www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russi...

Enormously significant. The electoral process now must be completely restarted from the beginning. The strongest response to a sophisticated foreign influence campaign we’ve seen in recent memory.

A must-read Buckeye diatribe. “The worst crime in this rivalry isn't losing a game. It's showing a palpable fear of losing and self-involvement with a tradition that cannot or ever be about one person.” www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-f...

Your friendly reminder that suspected cable sabotage is not the only trouble in the Baltic Sea. Russia is also interfering with AIS & other navigational tools used by ships. That leads to delays and can cause collisions. foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/04/r... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.)

This is a remarkable and brave piece of journalism. “Cartels are turning to chemistry students studying at Mexican universities with an ambitious goal — to synthesize precursors essential to making fentanyl, freeing them from having to import them from China.” www.nytimes.com/2024/12/01/w...

As I continue to process, I will simply leave this here. www.nytimes.com/athletic/394...

A brave woman — and a brave country.

Moscow continuing to use the $700m Gazprom debt to blackmail Moldovans — except this time, it’s Left Bank residents under the gun. Additionally — independent audits have assessed the disputed “debt” is likely around $9-$10m. interfax.com/newsroom/top...

🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦 @razomforukraine.org is here!

Highly interesting the extent to which young voters propelled Georgescu. The fact that PSD outspent everyone by multitudes and was overwhelmingly rejected by young voters isn’t *just* a propaganda issue. Young voters everywhere are highly disillusioned — time to grapple with that.

Moldovan diaspora results in Romania’s election yesterday — no real surprises. That said, 3k votes for Simion from Moldova — I’d love to know what goes through the head of a Simion/Sandu voter….

Wow. If you’re interested in Eurasia, energy geopolitics, corporate corruption, Putin palace intrigue, Kazakhstan, or just damn good writing & reporting, stop what you’re doing & read this. Tom Rowley has written the definitive piece on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. www.icij.org/investigatio...

One of Kennedy’s best speeches was one he never gave — the one he would have given on this day 61 years ago, had he lived a few hours more. “We in this country, in this generation, are – by destiny rather than choice – the watchmen on the walls of world freedom.“

Russia has likely sent S-400 long-range surface-to-air missiles, launchers and ground-based radar systems to North Korea, according to South Korea. apnews.com/article/nort...

Time to put Putin’s $330 billion war chest on a one-way flight to Kyiv.

A snapshot of some recent events in the Moldovan region of Transnistria that illustrate the separatist region's authoritarianism, tense ties with Ukraine, and closeness with Russia. First, the mayor of Tiraspol has been replaced. There have been rumors ...

Moldovan Energy Minister Parlicov will visit St. Petersburg for negotiations with Gazprom about gas supply to Transnistria after January 1, amongst other issues. t.me/newsmakerliv...

I think CN ship Yi Peng 3 is being detained. Suspect in cable incidents. She slowed down to a crawl in Kattegatt, manouvered to 400 meters inside DK territory. DK navy patrol P525 to her port. Guess: she is detained, awaiting either DE, FI or SE staff since they are the countries affected.

Seems as if another downed drone was discovered in Moldova today — this time potentially inside the city limits of Chisinau. Location is reportedly north of Riscani on the way towards Cricova. Not far from the city center at all. t.me/live_chisina...