LISTEN: @adnanm.bsky.social explores with @mdebolle.com the ramifications of another war in Iran; what it means for oil, natural gas, & other critical input markets; & how it might affect environmental efforts & the green transition. Here or wherever you get podcasts:

Join us on March 25 for an exciting discussion of the role critical minerals play in shaping Brazil-US economic economic relations featuring @mdebolle.com, Pedro Guerra (MDIC) and Bruna Santos @ Inter-American Dialogue!

Petrochemical firm owners concentrate among corporations, geographically in China, the US, & Saudi Arabia—but ownership ≠ control. Chinese & other Asian investors exert significant control, while US investors have limited control from passive investments. Saudi Arabia fully controls its investments.

The Trump administration's "America First" investment agreements with trading partners are effectively an industrial policy that is ironically aligned with Biden-era initiatives such as the CHIPS & Science Act. #PIIECharts More: www.piie.com/research/pii...

Countries in Trump's "America First" investment agenda vary in ability to fulfill pledges. Switzerland & Japan appear relatively well positioned. Yet some Gulf Cooperation Council countries appear less likely to meet the pledge without adjusting external balances. #PIIECharts

The deals with foreign countries pledging to invest in the US suffer from a lack of clarity on investment timing & decision-making process, raising doubts over politicization of investment decisions & whether the countries can fulfill them.

Latest from PIIE's Mazarei and Auclair: The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic? (Spoiler Alert: May be less than meets the eye) www.piie.com/publications...

“This was a very well-connected bank, corrupt etc., which underscored the banking system in itself is a channel for enrichment of the well-connected,” Adnan Mazarei says. The bank failure added to “a crescendo of the loss of legitimacy of the regime following the Israeli attack.”

A Tehran bank collapsed under the weight of bad loans to regime cronies. For some ordinary Iranians, it was the last straw.

Central bank independence - the latest evidence based thinking. Non-partisan take: Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out). www.piie.com/publications...

My interview with Novara media on what has motivated Iran and where the revolution is heading. youtu.be/jNHto1eQtSQ?...

ICYMI: Adnan Mazarei joined PIIE Insider LIVE to explain what it will take to rebuild Syria's economy, what's going on with oil markets in the Middle East, & more. Watch here or listen wherever you get your podcasts:

JULY 24: Adnan Mazarei joins PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss rebuilding Syria's economy, what's happening with oil markets in the Middle East, & more. Register to watch & ask questions live or subscribe to PIIE Insider LIVE wherever you get your podcasts to listen anytime: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

"This is bad news for the US and its trading partners. But the biggest impact on quality of life will be in developing countries that account for a small part of the US trade deficit." Brian Webster & @charlesjkenny.bsky.social on US tariffs & developing countries:

Sovereign wealth fund plans appear to be taking shape. Color me skeptical that this won't end up as a Trump slush fund, probably separate from Congressional decision-making and oversight, funded by tariffs passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices.

www.piie.com/blogs/realti... Syria needs a debt restructuring, but that will be difficult give that Iran and Russia are the principal creditors.

Unfortunately not an uncommon problem . . . as Mazarei, Obstfeld, and I have written about -> www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

A US sovereign wealth fund? A confused solution to an undefined problem, writes PIIE's Adnan Mazeri www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Without robust governance, a US sovereign wealth fund is more likely to divert funds from one area to another & crowd out, not mobilize, new private investments. It risks large-scale distortions & capture by special interests & could well increase US public debt. Read: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Egypt tends to face a currency crisis once a decade, the latest was 2022-24 I agree with @adnanm.bsky.social's piece that risks to its post-crisis economy remain: 1. Geopolitical risks 2. Political instability threats 3. Higher global yields under Trump www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...

While the international community must maintain its financial support for Egypt, pushing the authorities to implement long-overdue governance and economic reforms is equally, if not more, important, argues @piie.com’s Adnan Mazarei. bit.ly/3CBJW3K

My interview with Bloomberg Asharq on the reconstruction of Syria (in Arabic) now.asharq.com/clip/50-%D9%...