Constitution nerds: As I understand it, there is no 'resignation' from Parliament, you just have to take one of these weird ancient jobs with a title that bars you from being an MP. Who makes those appointments and is there any precedent for the appointment not being made when requested?

Farage goes full Trump with the endless self pity. A few immediate thoughts: - Sidesteps IPSO - Challenge to Burnham framing new PM as afraid of electorate for next 2 years - Depending on timeline, if he holds Clacton it makes him the main character/story again during Burnham’s first 100 days.

What do we think the Farage announcement will be? Wrong answers only. I'll go first: "Nigel Farage" was a 30-year satirical performance art piece funded by the European Union to test the limits of British irony.

LePen appeal decision being handed down imminently. Farage making an announcement on his future at 2PM. Big day for corrupt would-be autocrats.

If there isn’t at least one newspaper with the words “Trump Card” on its front page tomorrow then I’m sorry but the collapse of print media should no longer be anyone’s concern.

Starmer at the final, Burnham welcoming the parade, like a really tensely negotiated Christmas for children of divorce.

Portes "Theres a lot of nonsense talked, including on Sky, about the spiralling welfare bill.. as a proportion of our national income.. its lower than it was 15yrs ago & its pretty much back to what it was under Thatcher.. this idea its out of control is just wrong" Spot on!

DRC leading England in the first seven minutes is genuinely something to behold.

5 year old upon learning that we will be visiting his cousins in America later in the year: "BUT THE TESLA MAN LIVES THERE WILL WE BE SAFE SHOULD I TAKE A DRAGON". My work on this earth is done.

"Hard borders = good race relations" has been an assumed position for both the Tories + Labour since at least the 1970s. A bit of the history by me + @omaromalleykhan.bsky.social from back in the day here: www.independent.co.uk/voices/natio...

100% this. Also: maybe we keep the fossil fuels in the ground too so that workers everywhere can be safe from climate breakdown.

There was a bit on TV earlier in which the anchor responded to a wholly unnatural and dangerous set of meteorological extremes with nothing more than “good excuse to have ice cream”. :|

Honestly quite surprised that public swimming pools, cinemas etc haven’t spotted an opportunity here to do a solid for communities and also make good money by just laying on more family swim slots/ kids movies etc for the week.

Read the room, Kemi. #PMQs

Insane heat. School closed. Nursery closed. Juggling work and childcare and eldercare with the help of two fans and a sprinkler. Running out of iced lollies very quickly. Climate people, please tell me you're actively organising parents' groups right now.

In a world of "this is the era of impatient electorates" and "people want authenticity" and "he just couldn't connect with voters" (all true) can we also reserve *some space* for: the government made some very clear mistakes and the polls show that these had an unambiguous impact on its popularity.

It really is peak centrism punditry day. As if there wasn't tons of research that can explain why Starmer's strategic decisions had negative electoral effects. But centrist pundits simply seem to ignore research on why the centre-left is failing and misconstrue these arguments as normative leftism

Amazing how the local campaign to "Save our children" (from immigrants, trans people and DEI) have nothing to say when human-induced climate change means our kids' primary school can't safely stay open in the afternoon.

The idea that Starmer failed because he didn’t appeal enough to Reform voters ignores all the evidence: *six times* as many Labour supporters defected to the Greens/LDs. It’s a classic example of motivated reasoning used to justify a reactionary platform that would leave Labour unelectable.

If there’s a left-leaning paper in Ireland looking for a headline for tomorrow’s papers about our political permacrisis you could do worse than: “Stranger of Islands”

My 5 year old is soon to be on his fifth Prime Minister. I think I was in my 30s when I marked that particular milestone.

For a bit of context: It’s been 56 years since the last time the UK elected someone (Heath) into the job of Prime Minister who went on to leave the job after being defeated in a general election.

What happened in Makerfield? Some new constituency polling between @persuasionuk.bsky.social & Convergent (most accurate pollster in the race!), covering among other things: - Burnham assembling a coalition Lab needs nationally - 'Get Starmer out' + 'public ownership' at the centre of it. 🧵👇

“We are haemorrhaging women voters and getting hammered over our latent misogyny, we should really say someth…OH MY GOD WHY HAS SARAH TAKEN THAT CAMERA OUTSIDE, WHAT IS SHE DOING”

A string of by-election and Welsh defeats for Reform, culminating in Andy's resounding win in Makerfield, finally take the stench/aura of inevitability away from Farage. But if this really is a 'turning point' then it's the starting line, not the finish. We've got less than 1000 days. Buckle up.

Here we go.

Whatever the spin tomorrow, if Burnham wins he will have done so because thousands of voters who voted Reform *last month* are now voting Labour. And thousands of people who might prefer other parties are voting tactically to stop Reform. That’s the concept. We’ll soon see if he can prove it.

Love to see the Restore-Reform split widen, with all its impacts on voter coalitions. But conscious that: (1) Restore is dragging Reform further rightwards while (2) Sanitising/ outriding for Reform as it appears 'moderate' by comparison (3) The right are also capable of tactical voting.

I haven't seen Cape Verde put a beating like that on Spain since the 1640 dissolution of the Iberian Union

Almost every parent I've spoken to today has agreed it's a good thing to ban social media for under-16s. Some, however, pointed out that you only ban things if they're unsafe. And that we aren't doing anything to make the things we're banning any less dangerous.

I wrote a thing for the first time in a long time. Give it a read if you've got time this afternoon. www.opendemocracy.net/henry-nowak-...

Same, man. Same.

The irony of the “racism against whites” discourse of the far right is that it flares up around the few moments that the state treats white people as badly as they treat non-white people structurally. But rather than ask the state to treat no one as badly, they just want whites to be exempted.

Could we stop treating Farage like a PM-in-waiting? Latest from IPSOS:

Rest in Power. I'm sure I'm not alone in saying that Persepolis was the first graphic novel I ever bought and the light that sparked a lifelong love of the genre.

I wrote a thing for the first time in a long time. Give it a read if you've got time this afternoon. www.opendemocracy.net/henry-nowak-...

If you read one thing today, make it @stephenkb.bsky.social's admirably clear and rational analysis of the police's actions following Henry Nowak's murder, from the @financialtimes.com Inside Politics newsletter www.ft.com/content/aa94...

Three quarters of UK workers not on track for moderate pension income. Result of years of austerity, low wages, high cost of living. Maximum state pension is less than 50% of minimum wage. Neoliberals want to end the triple-lock. Poverty, premature death awaits millions. Need redistribution.

Henry Nowak’s father’s words outside court, who is probably the person we most need to hear from today.

Farage is competing with Lowe to prove which faction of the far right is most prepared to burn it all down. And our community didn’t sleep last night. Another day in the politics of Legitimate Concerns. Another minority group in the crosshairs. Solidarity, everyone.

I want the Prime Minister on the television condemning this in explicit terms and removing the whip from any Blue Labour MP who tries to whitewash this.

Every crime in which an ethnic or cultural minority is the perpetrator used to justify repression or worse of minorities. Every crime in which a minority is the victim used to argue for the idea that ethnic diversity is inherently unstable and should be reduced or eradicated.

NEW: She Faced a Life-Threatening Miscarriage. Under Arkansas’ Abortion Ban, Even Calls to the Governor’s Office Didn’t Help. Emily Waldorf’s case shows how abortion bans have left hospital lawyers, not doctors, deciding who gets care — and how lawmakers and regulators have failed to change that.

Yes this (and every bit of Ellie’s thread here). When I lived in India and would speak to UK friends around this time of year I’d say “it was 48degrees outside today” and I’d get jealous/stop showing off responses. Instead of alarm for all life forms.

So, Mr Blair, what was it about billionaire donor and tech magnate Larry Ellison that first attracted you?

This week is utterly wild.

Once again for everyone in the back.

Truly not a day has passed in a political science department in the UK for the last two years where we are not all turning to each other in the hallways and going "WTAF are they smoking." We are not a discipline with a lot of consensus research findings, but there is absolute consensus on this.

The time is 14:47 and things are officially kicking off.

Another plausible factor is that the Lab drop in strong remain wards is mainly losses to Greens, the Lab drop in strong Leave wards is mainly losses to Reform. But that only underlines why "go after Reform votes" is not cost free. Lab are *already* losing votes heavily in Remain areas...