Mitä, jos Venäjän varjolaivastoon kuuluvalla öljytankkerilla tapahtuisi onnettomuus? Kuten teettämämme mallinnus osoittaa, jälki olisi tuhoisaa. Öljyä päätyisi koko Helsingin ja Espoon edustalle ja aiheuttaisi mittavaa tuhoa lukuisilla luonnonsuojelualueilla. www.greenpeace.org/finland/tied...

Pleased to have contributed as an author to this analysis of impacts and policy responses to a potential AMOC tipping point from a Nordic perspective! pub.norden.org/temanord2026...

Fundamentally flawed economic models mean #climatecrisis could crash global economy, experts warn - Shocks from extreme weather disasters and tipping points are entirely missed by the current models used by governments and financial institutions Story by me www.theguardian.com/environment/...

'Beneath the country’s political and economic crisis lies a more destabilising force that is still largely missing from international analysis: environmental breakdown. ... Protests increasingly erupt in areas where there is groundwater collapse, land subsidence and water rationing.'

Uutisen pitäisi olla se, että tämä ei ole uutinen. Edelleen sama touhu, jossa jokainen pienikin metsätilkku on ihan pakko hakata, tai tulevat heinäsirkat, nälänhätä ja maailmanloppu. yle.fi/a/74-2020712...

New from us: EU CO2 emissions fell only 0.8% in 2025, the second year in a row that the bloc has fallen short of its targets. Adverse weather played a big role but underlying issues are slow progress on transport and buildings electrification and wind power buildout.

"For much of the world, ‘normal’ is gone" – Humans are "withdrawing and polluting water beyond renewable inflows and safe depletion limits" and causing irreversible damage to wetlands and lakes that could have helped with restoration. news.un.org/en/story/202...

🔥3.8 billion people will be exposed to extreme heat by 2050. Great to see my @smithschool.ox.ac.uk colleague and teacher Radhika Khosla interviewed by @jonathan-watts.bsky.social for the Guardian.

Tekoäly voisi muodostaa hallituksen.

Australia’s worst heatwave since black summer made five times more likely by #climatecrisis, @wwattribution.bsky.social analysis finds - Extreme heat ‘is getting worse and there’s ultimately a limit to what we can physically cope with’ scientist says www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Forest loss is shown to exacerbate meteorological drought globally, with boreal regions most affected. Urgent conservation and restoration are needed. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

For those thinking that climate change can take a back seat while this other geopolitical mess is addressed - think again. Climate change is in part why Greenland has become so attractive to Pumpkin and his lot. bbc.com/news/videos/...

Tällä bulkkitaloudella se varmasti saadaan Suomen talous nousuun. Metsähallitus vähät välittää mitä hakkaa, ostajaa ei voisi vähempää kiinnostaa mitä ostaa. Valtakunnassa kaikki hyvin. www.sttinfo.fi/tiedote/7170...

So much fun

Thrilled to share I’ll get paid for two years to deepen my existential dread about climate collapse—thanks to the Nessling Foundation! Starting end of 2026 at @bios.fi, I’ll explore how an AMOC collapse could reshape Finland’s society, with a focus on food production.

📝New FIIA Briefing Paper Environment-related risks can trigger sudden, cascading effects across sectors and borders. @ezhakala.bsky.social and @helmiraisanen.bsky.social explore environment-related risks as part of comprehensive security and discuss ways to prepare for them. fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Great, intense conference during the Nordic Tipping Week in Helsinki and Rovaniemi 🇫🇮 last week. Climate scientists, fisheries experts, social researchers, and policy makers came together to discuss what an #AMOC weakening or collapse could mean for the Nordic region and the rest of the world.

Hyvää alkanutta työviikkoa. Kaikki on loistavasti. "Two iconic corals that have flourished across Florida’s 560-kilometre-long reef for more than 10,000 years are now ‘functionally extinct’ following the record-breaking 2023 heatwave." www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Just attended Nordic Tipping Week to discuss the latest science on the AMOC tipping point and its societal impacts. Now I’m feeling some serious post-conference anguish. Being back in a world pretending everything’s normal is exhausting. The cognitive dissonance is heavy.

New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳. @swinda.bsky.social esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

“‘We must stop expecting carbon offsetting to work at scale,’ said Stephen Lezak, a researcher at the University of Oxford’s Smith School. ‘We have assessed 25 years of evidence and almost everything up until this point has failed.’” www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Nearly 40% of global transboundart river basins could face potential conflicts driven by water scarcity in 2041–2050, with hotspots in Africa, southern and central Asia, the Middle East, and North America www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Published today: our new paper showing a 44-year trend of increasing global wildfire disasters (fatalities and economic losses) due to climate change-induced extreme weather. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Geologic CO₂ storage capacity is limited (1,460 Gt). Without steep near-term emission cuts, we risk exhausting capacity before 2200. Even at max use, storage only lowers warming by 0.7 °C—making it a finite, intergenerational resource for climate strategy. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

New study finds that warmer oceans could cut populations of Prochlorococcus — the tiny phytoplankton that produce ~20% of Earth’s oxygen and form the base of many marine food webs — by up to 50% in tropical seas by 2100 if surface waters keep rising above ~28 °C. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Reading this makes me physically nauseous: Collapse of the AMOC is no longer a “low-likelihood” event - the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Yleisön ilmastonmuutoshuolen taso Euroopan maissa. Etelä-Eurooppa kärjessä, pohjoismaat häntäpäässä. Silti Suomessakin elää yhä myytti siitä, että meillä ollaan ilmastotietoisia, muualla pöljäillään sokeasti menemään.

Golf courses are quite the comparative metric, on several levels...

"already outpacing efforts to adapt"

New research shows climate change has already reshaped biodiversity: tropical bird populations declined by 25–38% (1950–2020) due to heat extremes. Even in ‘undisturbed’ habitats, human-driven warming is driving losses www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Niille, joiden mielestä helleaallot on kivoja: Repeated heatwaves can age you as much as smoking or drinking www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Hey, have you remembered to think about multi-metre sea level rise today? "+1.5 °C is too high and that even current climate forcing (+1.2 °C), if sustained, is likely to generate several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries" www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Havaitsimme, että aiemmat arviot sosiaaliturvamuutosten yhteisvaikutuksista ovat liioitelleet toimeentulotuen suojaavaa vaikutusta. Tarkennetulla mallilla toimeentulotuen saajamäärän lisäys on aiempia arvioita pienempi -> vaikutukset pienituloisuuteen ovat suurempia. 1/

Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment Abram+ doi.org/10.1038/s415... "The only assured way of reducing the risk of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment is to make rapid and deep CO2 emission reductions this decade"

This SINGLE WEEK of Spanish wildfire emissions surpassed ANNUAL total carbon emissions of each of the 100 lowest emitting countries in the world‼️ Carbon sinks are turning into sources We can’t expect nature to clean up our mess.

Our new study examines Finland’s green transition & critical raw material governance via socio-technical imaginaries. National economic gains are prioritised, planetary boundaries ignored–continuing Finland’s long history of heavy resource use despite its ‘sustainability leader’ image.

The global ocean is getting darker—threatening one of the most productive habitats on the planet. "The implications of ocean darkening for marine ecology and the ecosystem services provided by the surface oceans are currently unknown but likely to be severe." onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Jahas. www.hs.fi/politiikka/a...

Helsingin Sanomat julkaisi mielipidekirjoitukseni tieteen rahoituksesta Lukijan mielipide | Tieteen tarkoitus ei ole miellyttää ulkopuolisia tahoja www.hs.fi/mielipide/ar...

Essence of BBB:"dramatic cuts to environmental protections and regulations, kickbacks to the wealthy elite, a retreat from global climate commitments, and an expansion in fossil fuel extraction on public lands that will be underway for years to come. Climate and environmental consequences be damned"

Scientists have known for decades that soaring atmospheric CO2 emissions are causing changes in ocean chemistry, threatening marine life & ecosystems. In June 2025, a study found that ocean acidification has now passed a safe threshold across large swathes of the world’s marine environment.

I am more and more impressed every day by humanity's ability to ignore existential threats. "Antarctica has 80 metres of potential sea-level rise. We don’t expect all of that, but it is harder to know exactly what is happening." www.theguardian.com/environment/...

'Average global yields of six staple crops could fall by more than 11% under a moderate warming scenario by the end of the century – even when accounting for how farmers could adapt to climate change' www.carbonbrief.org/staple-crops...

www.nature.com/articles/d44... Future climate-driven monsoon variability could disrupt marine ecosystems and food security for millions; “We now see falls of up to 30% in chlorophyll levels — the plankton equivalent of a crop yield — in years with heavy monsoon rainfall”

www.carbonbrief.org/global-wheat... “The overall picture of the past half-century is that climate trends have led to a deterioration of growing conditions for many of the main grain-producing regions of the world.”

Mittaukset vahvistavat: avohakkuu kasvattaa ojitettujen turvemetsien kasvihuonekaasupäästöjä lyhyellä aikavälillä merkittävästi. www.luke.fi/fi/uutiset/m...

ping @helmiraisanen.bsky.social