"Premiums for consumers buying aluminium on the physical market in the U.S. have hit record highs, driven by steep import tariffs and tight supplies globally." www.reuters.com/world/china/...

I wish financial planners would stop warning ppl about the "OAS clawback" The OAS is the residue of a pension, launched in 1926, to relieve starvation among the very poor Now, it (and GIS) helps those people, but also ppl with modest savings/pensions It's 'clawed back' from the very comfortable

The unheated greenhouse did good this year. Came so close, but the snow and cold has arrived and I’m not prepared to pay the added electric bill to heat it. So, down to the basement in hopes of off-vine ripening.

Fail. Seriously, bad decision.

🚨 A nearly 90-min deep dive on all the implications of #Budget2025 with the always excellent @jrobson.bsky.social Ben Woodfinden and @davidherle.bsky.social Defence, housing, climate, fiscal policy etc YouTube youtu.be/CwMRTCUjCmU?... #cdnpoli

Just recorded a convo on the budget with @tylermeredith.bsky.social & Ben Woodfinden for the always thoughtful and generous @davidherle.bsky.socialon #HerleBurly. 3 things I wish I had said: 1) The taxes cut on luxury boats, planes and underused homes should be seen a piece. It's "capital spending"

Every single woman you know has had this happen to her. Even the goddamn president of Mexico.

Still going back through the budget to find new things I hadn't spotted before. Like this, on page 103, where a list of 25 sample projects are listed for a proposed new infrastructure fund (whose funding and conditions are a bit fuzzy).

This one is even more of a head scratcher than most.

No notes

the #budget offers more public details on tax-agency reconciliation (aka "Automatic filing"). There's some stuff to like in here, even if it's not perfect. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good!

called it

No more Under-used Home Tax...

If you were thinking of buying a boat or private plane, tomorrow will be a good day to go shopping....

Still trying to finish reading the #budget (I was teaching & grading, & had meetings & had to parent today, don't @ me!!!). This is interesting:

Dropping a beta version of this page while everyone is up and processing baseball! This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers. paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...

This better not take another 9

One team is having a lot more fun than the other.

I’m not cheering for him, but I like that there’s a player named Mookie in this game.

I wrote about the upcoming federal budget. I don’t disagree that cuts are required, but the path taken to find them hasn’t been amazing.

Somebody at HMRC needs to be canned for this idiotic ‘fraud-detection’ idea. And I fear future use of AI in welfare cases might well produce this kind of story regularly (as they have in Nevada for example).

🇨🇦👀🇨🇦

I don’t have a humiliation kink so I am really not enjoying seeing these bloated amoral Republicans writhing in their own filth to justify raising tariffs on an ally because the king didn’t like a TV ad accurately quoting a popular politician

sigh… He’s really stuck on this one

I know this is obvious. And I know we all know this. But if the President can raise taxes because an advert annoyed him, without even consulting Congress, then the US constitution is simply not functioning as intended.

It’s POTS awareness day—a blood flow problem common after Covid. POTS can be subtle—I often wonder how many people who feel rundown, anxious or distracted have this treatable condition. Main criteria is heart rate going up >30bpm when going from laying down to standing—smthg you can check at home!

The Trump administration is launching a trade investigation that opens the door to new tariffs on Chinese goods, ratcheting up tensions ahead of a highly anticipated summit next week between the countries’ leaders.

I have to read this as suggesting that some progress may in fact have been being made. The ad was not anti-American but it would have triggered some cognitive dissonance for whatever’s left of the GOP, and that would be psychologically uncomfortable. Cognitive dissonance demands resolution. 1/2

current view

I’m still mostly offline this week but I read the PM’s pre-budget speech (guest lecture?) and have some thoughts. open.substack.com/pub/robsonj/... TLDR: He’s right that sacrifice & solidarity will be required. But let’s be clear on who is being asked to sacrifice & the role of gov’t in solidarity.

US and Qatar issue energy and trade threats to EU over climate rules on.ft.com/48BzIy5

Recent views

Maybe let’s stop with the forward signalling and just look at any text if/when there is a deal of some sort.

Tariff costs to companies this year to hit $1.2 trillion, with consumers taking most of the hit, S&P says. www.cnbc.com/2025/10/16/t... #Tariffs #Consumers #Economy #Business #Bills

Can no longer keep up in the goings on of the pretender-currencies. Too much. *waving hands*

Expecting to see many similar stories in days ahead that are, effectively, investor coms to contain sell-offs

My fav bit of my commute these days

Are you a new or soon-to-be PhD? Do you work on socio-economic inequality, poverty, and/or mobility? Do you study income, wealth, or earnings? Are you passionate about research as well as policy analyses? If so, we may be the perfect home for you, starting in fall 2026? Take a look! 🍎 #postdoc 👇👇👇

Years ago, a family member relayed a story of speaking to Americans about the Canadian Thanksgiving holiday weekend. One of them asked: "YOU have Thanksgiving in Canada? What do you have to be thankful for?" This was in the 1990s, no MAGA or Trump in politics. SO thankful to be Canadian, always.

Announcement from PM Carney moments ago and this is good news. I've been working on this issue with @saulschwartz.bsky.social and @agenestgregoire.bsky.social for years. We've documented how many Canadians don't file and miss out on or loose benefits, .. 1/3

It’s an unseasonably warm fall day. Today is my last day in my 40s. Feels like a bit of a personal transition moment. Thinking a lot about how I want to use my time, recognizing there’s a bit less of it ahead of me than behind.

Not my monkeys. Not my circus. I’m really keen to keep it that way, but this seems about right.

This is the most inane thing, but the fact the Jays bested the Yankees (and it wasn’t even close), and will not play again until after Carney leaves the White House, may actually be relevant to Canadian trade and defence policy for the next 48 hours.

Read the thread. Hypothesis: Maybe women who bet on sports are more likely to place better bets.

I have to think (hope?) this chart may be relevant to the PM’s trip to the WH next week. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1MM5g

Please join me in congratulating Woman on her appointment

The EU plans to hike tariffs on its steel imports to 50%, according to a draft proposal seen by Bloomberg

On good days, think maybe we’re still here bsky.app/profile/jrob...

It’s true! I’ll be there. It’ll be a lot of fun. Tickets are still available via reelpolitics.ca #cdnpoli