Sign of the times that when waking up to the headline ‘England Collapses Overnight’ I had to check it was definitely about the cricket. 🏏 #MAshes

No matter which way you cut it, this has become a very unpopular government - now at Johnson on resignation day and Corbyn in mid-2019 levels of dislike, including among their own voters. Only Truss-tier is yet to be reached, though with Reeves already at Kwarteng levels, it's not out of sight.

The Rhins of Galloway By-election could see Reform UK elect their first politician in Scotland. But if the SNP can stay in the top two, they have a chance of winning on transfers.

Did Labour MPs ever imagine that they would be ending the first period of their first government in more than 14 years with their own Home Secretary feeling the need to publicly deny that she plans to defect to Reform?

An alternative scenario for the #Rhins By-election is an even greater Tory collapse than national polls show. This sees them lose two thirds of their vote, with most going to RUK. However, if the SNP can keep their losses minimal, they beat RUK on transfers.

I used national voting intention changes since 2022 to project 1st pref vote share for tomorrow’s Rhins of Galloway By-election. This version (using transfer % from recent by-elections) sees SNP edge out the Tories after transfers. But local swings could see it go 3 different ways.

My latest blog piece, a vote for Labour, or for another anti-independence party in Scotland, is voting to be ignored and irrelevant. weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2025/11/19/a...

BREAKING: Hundreds of people in 10 towns and cities are peacefully holding signs which say: "I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action" Across England, Wales and Scotland, people are coming together to defy an unjust law and demand the ban is lifted.

Scottish Labour have fallen into fourth place in Scotland, according to a new YouGov poll Read here: www.thenational.scot/news/2...

Given that Yougov’s #Indyref2 polling methodology is the most piss-poor in a crowded field, findings like this suggest a strong real-world lead for #Yes. For example, the % ‘did not vote’ figure has not been changed for 3 years. They also don’t apply turnout weighting.

Strangely, Greece are not being hoodwinked by Scotland’s tactic of passing the ball back & forth across the back three at pedestrian pace. I think Plan B might be needed. #GRESCO

I’m loving the fact that the Tories & the Far(age) Right pitched up for this election and got a combined vote of 7.6% 🤡🤡🤡🤡

Big scoop by my colleagues, this:

This sums up why First Past the Post is such a shite system. The self-aggrandising shyster, Nigel Farage would likely win a landslide at a UK election while more than two thirds of the electorate oppose him. It's insane.

As far as I am aware, this poll from Freshwater Strategy is the first to specifically ask about Your Party voting intentions. Interestingly (and not at all in any way highly amusingly) they found exactly zero Yourp voters in Scotland.

Starmer is now more unpopular than Liz Truss. Read that sentence, pause, step outside, take a deep breath, then come back in and read it again: more unpopular than Liz Truss. He’s not just toast, he’s croutons. It’s now all but guaranteed that Starmer will be ousted come May’s elections

What’s with the: Glass-goe pronunciation? It’s Glaz-goe, or (Scots) Glez-gah (Gaelic) Glass-Khu #BBCDN

Okay, I now see that the “all viewpoints” patter is code for: ‘We invited a lot of racists onto the show’ #BBCDN

BBC Debate Night, Stephen Jardine: “we give all political viewpoints the same voice” That’s problematic when you give the far right the same platform as the social-democratic & centre-right mainstream. You’re giving cranks the same level of credence as those with cogent, evidenced viewpoints. #BBCDN

Does he declare an interest every time he stands up in parliament to diss the BBC? Asking as a local councillor who has to make declarations for the most remote connections...

Has the BBC been captured by a bunch of extreme right wingers? Does anyone believe Aunty is pro Palestine? Who will pay Trump's damages - licence-fee payers? What about record low trust levels in Scotland post #indyref? Plus prisons, David Lammy & Trad Awards. Listen lesleyriddoch.com/podcast

Typical of the London- focused media to continually talk about the May ‘Local Elections’. In May, two of the three constituent nations of the UK will have full elections for their devolved Governments. Not even regional… Local. Independence plz

So is ex Tory spin doctor and Boris Johnson appointee Sir Robbie Gibb now an impartial BBC board member? If so, why did he like an anti SNP tweet? Well the (Tory) ex BBC Chair told me Gibb’s finger accidentally passed over the “telephone” & “the heart got pressed.” Comedy gold.

That this is happening to a PM with a 3 figure majority just over a year after the GE tells you just how badly Starmer is governing. Labour has lost its way to such an extent that Wes Streeting - David Cameron in larval form - is his main challenger. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

“It’s never too early for a Christmas rom-com” pips the BBC continuity announcer. Erm… It’s the 11th of November… It definitely fucking is too early!

True dat...

Wait, what... so tinkering with the planning system and putting a tax on jobs didn't grow the English economy? Who could have guessed that?

The reality behind Michel Prescott, the Telegraph and the long war against the BBC bellacaledonia.org.uk/2025/11/10/f...

Should Gibb be sacked? yes, obviously. He's an abomination of basic journalistic standards. His GB News channel spreads conspiracy theory & disinformation. His Jewish Chronicle newspaper spreads invented stories. He is plainly trying to undermine the BBC so it's as bad as everything else he touches.

The SNP polled 30% in 2024 and got virtually wiped out. Reform UK currently polling 30% and predicted to sweep to 355 seats and a majority. Ladies & gentlemen I give you First Past the Post!

Given recent polling and what took place in Caerphilly, this will be a very interesting by-election in Stranraer & the Rhins. That the Tory vote will collapse is a given, but the interesting question will be the extent to which the anti-Reform vote might coalesce to try and stop them winning.

You've got to be a little wary of the breakdowns within UK-wide polls. But, given a senior Labour activist was quoting a subsample from a Find Out Now poll to troll @ross-greer.bsky.social, you can't help but find this (from a Yougov subsample) objectively hilarious. Labour are very unpopular!

Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share! gofund.me/cf862de1a

I like that Mamdani is introducing baby boxes in NY just cos I like to watch Scottish left-wing unionists squirm. It's good when Mamdani does it but bad when the SNP do it for REASONS, alright?!

Given recent polling and what took place in Caerphilly, this will be a very interesting by-election in Stranraer & the Rhins. That the Tory vote will collapse is a given, but the interesting question will be the extent to which the anti-Reform vote might coalesce to try and stop them winning.

You've got to be a little wary of the breakdowns within UK-wide polls. But, given a senior Labour activist was quoting a subsample from a Find Out Now poll to troll @ross-greer.bsky.social, you can't help but find this (from a Yougov subsample) objectively hilarious. Labour are very unpopular!

This sums up why First Past the Post is such a shite system. The self-aggrandising shyster, Nigel Farage would likely win a landslide at a UK election while more than two thirds of the electorate oppose him. It's insane.

The Scottish government provides every family with a newborn with a ‘baby box’ of essentials to help them get started. @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social is bringing the boxes to NY. Why can’t we have obviously good & nice things like this under a Labour government UK wide?

This is pretty catastrophic for Labour losing almost half of their vote share in one of their former heartlands. And for the Tories? Not their patch, but polling less than Alba and only 19 votes ahead of the *Sovereignty* Party ? 😂 I might have to go and get myself a drink.

If you want to crow about individual sub-samples, I have a Yougov greenhouse that you and your single-digit UK Labour pals could shelter in.

Another Reform councillor has quit the party. Isabella Kemp now sits as an independent on Kent County Council. By my calculation, that’s nine Kent Reform councillors gone since May. Joke party of amateur hobbyists.

Polling for #Indyref2 is subject to a wide range of methodological & House effects. This chart controls for the 2014 weighting by applying the same population % to samples. Of 8 pollsters only Yougov trends flat & <50% Yes. 5 trend upwards & have majority Yes 2 trend downwards & have majority Yes

Also, been reminded in chat with other folk, when you see folk (especially folk elected in 2022) railing against the SNP from a Green (or formerly) perspective, remember that in 2022 there was no stronger mutual flow of preferences than between the SNP and Greens ballotbox.scot/le22-party-p...

British Labour MPs trying to associate themselves with Mamdani's win all "how do you do, fellow lefties" style, as if they aren't the same sort of right-enabling establishment he was a reaction against, embarrassing, the cheek, the nerve, the gall, the audacity and the gumption required

There's an interesting dynamic happening in the Scottish voting intentions polling for Westminster. Votes are gravitating away from Labour, Tories and the LibDems; with an uptick towards the SNP & Greens. This means pro-indy votes are aligning more closely with pro-indy parties - currently 48%.

The latest Westminster voting intention poll from Yougov shows the @scottishgreens.org overtaking both the Tories & LibDems on the 3 poll rolling average metric. They have doubled their support since January to 11 points. The 3 traditional unionist parties are all in decline.

There's an interesting dynamic happening in the Scottish voting intentions polling for Westminster. Votes are gravitating away from Labour, Tories and the LibDems; with an uptick towards the SNP & Greens. This means pro-indy votes are aligning more closely with pro-indy parties - currently 48%.

The latest Westminster voting intention poll from Yougov shows the @scottishgreens.org overtaking both the Tories & LibDems on the 3 poll rolling average metric. They have doubled their support since January to 11 points. The 3 traditional unionist parties are all in decline.

Former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt speaks to The National about Scottish independence and the UK in Europe 👇 More here: www.thenational.scot/news/2...