Getting really tired of "this is all a media concoction"... Starmer has the lowest approval rating of any PM in history bar Truss. Senior ministers are openly and unsubtly positioning. His Chief of Staff, Director of Comms and Cab Sec have all resigned on the same day. I mean come on...

Absolutely brilliant column by @patrickmaguire.bsky.social: every word of it true:

I spent today with Nigel Farage and watched Robert Jenrick’s rumoured defection become reality in the space of minutes, listening to a phone call from my vantage point in the back seat of a people carrier. Here’s how it happened. www.thetimes.com/article/12d3...

Indeed. The overriding essay question that Reform needs to answer in the next three years is: if you are on the right and hate Keir Starmer, which of a) Reform UK or b) The Tories is the bigger, stronger, more viable vehicle for change? In many ways it is a basic issue of showing mass and velocity

99 per cent of analysis I’m reading about Zahawi is way too involved. To the extent people pay attention to this at all, it will be to note that Reform are doing well and hear someone else say Farage will/can be PM. Also: are Reform the same old Tories or something new and scary?

I've gone completely insane. New Substack on – variously – Harry Enfield, Alan Bleasdale, Walter Greenwood, Dennis Potter, Jimmy Reid and Damian McBride. maguirepatrick.substack.com/p/in-defence...

Insightful piece from @patrickmaguire.bsky.social on what makes some voters tick, and how to tickle them maguirepatrick.substack.com/p/the-voters...

New Substack: why Labour Together's membership survey matters. And how to define "helpful" maguirepatrick.substack.com/p/how-not-to...

I've written a Substack about what I've been reading and writing recently – on the voters who make populism happen, and why Labour isn't speaking to them. maguirepatrick.substack.com/p/the-voters...

New on my similarly new Substack: why Keir Starmer needs fat men around him, the person actually doing a good job inside No 10, and the best books on Brownism substack.com/home/post/p-...

Column: not many people appreciate just how many Brownites there are at the top of this Labour government. But are they the right ones for a PM with his back to the wall? www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

I've joined Substack to share more thoughts on my reading, writing and thoughts on the history that helps explain our political moment. Subscribe here, if you like. substack.com/home/post/p-...

Nigel Farage v Keir Starmer is the only game in town | ✍️ Patrick Maguire

A podcast intro that is actually funny! @patrickmaguire.bsky.social sings I Think We're Alone Now at Maggie Thatcher’s 100th birthday to explain Kemi’s position at conference. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

Nigel Farage is leading Labour round in circles www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Fascinating and hugely depressing stuff by @patrickmaguire.bsky.social There’s a void at the heart of Labour: it needs a battle of ideas www.thetimes.com/article/7177...

Morgan McSweeney: - broke contact with “dismissive” Mandelson on Tuesday - resolved he should be sacked on after PMQs on Wednesday - then went to Brussels that evening - by the time he returned, his longtime friend and mentor was gone Full story in today’s Times: www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Terrific column this:

Peter Mandelson and Keir Starmer: a sorry story that begins and ends with the incoherence of the prime minister’s political project www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Really interesting by @patrickmaguire.bsky.social (apart from the unnecessary LUFC dig) www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Don't think I'm being overly precious to say not enough made of the booing of the minute's silence for Jota. TNT coverage seemed desperate to move on and be able to talk about how wonderful and deserving the Palace fans were. Yes, I know, a minority etc.

The central issue for parties now is fairness. For Labour that means cost of living, good public services, social justice. But Farage has defined it on crime, immigration, welfare bills and voters being played for mugs. And right now he is winning that fight www.ft.com/content/e153...

Column: Labour should beware Mums for Reform www.thetimes.com/article/160a...

EXC: Ministers and civil servants are deliberately misleading the public with “false” and “unfounded” briefings about the Hillsborough Law, Andy Burnham tells The Times KC who wrote draft bill says officials are seeking to “subvert and destroy the entire process” www.thetimes.com/article/a220...

Is Keir Starmer planning a progressive pivot? He made a class-conscious speech to cabinet last week. But the justice secretary asked whether Labour could really claim to represent the working class... ...and then his policy chief sketched out a tougher direction of travel.

Column in this morning's Times: - How four MPs ended up without the Labour whip – and why No 10 wanted more - Shabana tells Keir: no point having a working class cabinet the working class hate - Liz Lloyd tells cabinet: social cohesion under threat due to migration www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Danger is welfare rows + winter fuel and coming rows on SEND etc recreates sense of chaos voters thought they’d got rid of with the Tories. Damaging in two ways 1. Annoys exhausted electorate 2. Derisks Reform - people think (fairly or not) if current lot already chaotic how bad can Reform be.

This guy

Excellent piece by @patrickmaguire.bsky.social. Starmer is entering one of his 'hmm, things aren't working how they should' contemplative modes - will be big personnel changes in the coming weeks and months I think:

Tomorrow’s Times column: - The key segments of the electorate in No 10’s new poll of trust in government - Farage planning a ‘Robin Hood’ intervention on the cost of living next Monday - What Orban’s aides have told Reform on welfare - Who’s debating a wealth tax? www.thetimes.com/article/eed0...

It's quite remarkable that the elite of the British right has chosen *now* as the moment to go blood-and-soil. When the actual public have probably never been as un-racist as they are.

This from @patrickmaguire.bsky.social captures UK politics in 2025 better than anything I’ve read & this para hits it on the head. People we speak to every week in focus groups largely don’t give a stuff about left and right, they want life to be less of a struggle www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Tomorrow’s Times column: - The key segments of the electorate in No 10’s new poll of trust in government - Farage planning a ‘Robin Hood’ intervention on the cost of living next Monday - What Orban’s aides have told Reform on welfare - Who’s debating a wealth tax? www.thetimes.com/article/eed0...

EXC: Bank of England independence should be reviewed, say Reform www.thetimes.com/article/6f49...

What Southport Pier tells you about the new politics of this Labour government www.thetimes.com/article/df83...

So it turns out almost everyone was completely wrong in their analysis of Reform over the past 48 hours. So many nonsense assertions made without any evidence, largely because people can't, won't or don't want to understand that this isn't just Ukip again.

Column: Reform have got this far on vibes alone and consciously reject SW1 convention. But Yusuf's resignation shows the limits of doing it differently. No wonder some close to Farage are talking about a new team... after tonight, they'll need one. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Column: Reform have got this far on vibes alone and consciously reject SW1 convention. But Yusuf's resignation shows the limits of doing it differently. No wonder some close to Farage are talking about a new team... after tonight, they'll need one. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Misread to add Yusuf to long list of people who have fallen out with Farage. The real problem for Reform is that even in a party designed with zero meaningful provision for internal democracy, his chosen enforcer was incapable of running it without alienating everyone else.

In this Saturday’s Times I interview Gary Lubner, Labour’s biggest donor, about politics, philanthropy, and the PM www.thetimes.com/article/6cda...

In this Saturday’s Times I interview Gary Lubner, Labour’s biggest donor, about politics, philanthropy, and the PM www.thetimes.com/article/6cda...

Column in today's Times: how and why Rachel Reeves will use the spending review not just to cut, but to rewrite the Treasury's investment rules to build outside of London www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

The Treasury’s Green Book has long favoured already-prosperous areas. That’s why it’s right the Chancellor is reviewing it - to get investment flowing to the regions that need it most. I spoke to @patrickmaguire.bsky.social on what reforms mean for regional growth: www.thetimes.com/article/6269...

In today's column: Nigel Farage is planning to outflank Labour from the left on welfare reform www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Terrific column by @patrickmaguire.bsky.social in today's Times on the internal divisions over the winter fuel allowance and what it reveals:

Column in today’s Times: - Pat McFadden was pushing for winter fuel u-turn before locals - Rachel Reeves joined the fray this month - No 10 staff initially not told Starmer had come round to their view - Heads of comms and policy opposed the decision www.thetimes.com/article/c121...

Column: winter fuel U-turn exposes vacuum at heart of No 10 www.thetimes.com/article/c121...

EXC: Nigel Farage confirms to me that he is on his first overseas holiday in three years “There seems to be great consternation in the press that they have not seen me for 48 hours. Well, they will have to wait some time.”