Is what #Trump did with #Venezuela a harbinger of what he could do with #Greenland? Unlikely but not impossible. The EU should be ready for the unlikely event.

One controversial thought: the clearer #Trump (the US?) is in his despise for Europe, the better. Even the most convinced Atlanticist will be convinced that we must now all become Gaullists.

Bruegel recently republished an essay written with Leonardo Cadamuro: www.bruegel.org/external-pub.... We try to dispel the despondency too often affecting Europeans and sapping their actions.

The EU has been hit in the last few decades by 3 raw material shocks: oil in the 1970s, gas in 2022 and now rare earths. They overcame the 2nd shock faster than the 1st one. Is the 3rd one more similar to the 1st or the 2nd? How do the 3 shocks compare in size and substitutability?

I see similarities between the weaponisation of the $ by the US and the weaponisation of rare earths by China: both are effective in the short to medium run, both incentivise alternatives, weakening their effect, in the medium to long run. Would be interesting to see which effect will fade faster.

⏳ How long will the #tariff madness last? 🤔 With discussion turning away from changing the US' tariffs towards predicting how long they will last, are there grounds for optimism? 🖊️ By @francz.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/O5NGr2Y #EconSky

With the tariff agreement with the US and now with the Trump-Putin meeting on Ukraine, the EU is suffering unavoidable but painful humiliations. This is the precondition for understanding that we must further our unity and strengthen our independence. Humiliations can provide strong incentives.

WE ARE HIRING! Bruegel is looking for a skilled Operations Assistant for its office in Brussels to undertake various day-to-day office and operations tasks. 🔗 Apply before Wednesday 13th August 2025, 23:59 CET: www.bruegel.org/careers/oper...

1 Tariffs worsen growth and inflation; 2 Increasing tariffs is contrary to the long trend towards free trade; 3 All commentary considers the increased level of tariffs as persistent. 3 is not consistent with 1 and 2. Can the mid-term elections, or the next presidential election, reduce tariffs?

Two optimistic, maybe wrong, interpretations. 1. An extreme political shock favoured the US's traditional populist soul against its liberal one, and Roth's Plot Against America has become real, but will not last. 2. Europe is forced to surpass colonialism and the two World Wars and become an adult.

#Lagarde is very confident that inflation is stabilizing at 2.0%

#Lagarde confirms that tariffs negatively affect growth and push inflation lower, so no stagflation, unlike in the US.

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There is a common feature in French, Canadian, Australian and Romanian elections: confronted with a possible win by an extreme right party, electors choose the candidate best able to defeat it. Unfortunate exceptions are: Italy, Hungary, Israel.

🔍 The ECB’s Digital Euro and new operational framework: is there an overlap? 📅 2 June 2025 12:30-13:45 CEST Join @rebeccawire.bsky.social , Ulrich Bindseil & Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau of @ecb.europa.eu , @francz.bsky.social & Alberto Franco Pozzolo for this conversation! 🔗 Sign up: buff.ly/qoDnKtB

🤝 UK-EU relations With the London Summit approaching, on the agenda so far for a post-Brexit reset are defence, trade, and a possible youth mobility scheme. 🪙 Time to add finance? 🖊️ Jesper Berg, @rebeccawire.bsky.social @hansgeeroms.bsky.social @francz.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/PknBeg9 #EconSky

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I sensed a tension in #Lagarde's press conference today: -It is clear that tariffs are imparting a negative demand shock, while there is no clear inflation impact -Monetary policy will remain meeting by meeting without a clear path. An indication of a downward path would have been justified.

The most important message in #Trump's backdown on tariffs is not that he suspended some of them but that the market can force a change. I expect more of this going forward, also regarding China, as both Xi and Trump must reckon with market consequences.

Is there any rationality in Trump's tariff madness? moneymatters-monetarypolicy.eu/trump-tariff...

#Europe has the chance to become the global leader of reasonability as the US under #Trump pursues extravagant, damaging policies for the US and the world. Will Europe rise to the challenge?

How much pain can a democratically elected politician can impose on his/her country? Truss# was stopped before it could produce too much damage. How long will Trump# be allowed to ruin his country and the world before he is stopped?

This is, in my opinion, ground enough to terminate all EU interactions with anything musky.

A great piece explaining how US tariffs on Canadian imports lead to higher prices and less choice - exemplified by drum kits produced by two branches of a family separated decades ago & producing the same product in Canada & the US. Cullen Hendrix @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Cowards be cowards.

"It's still kinda funny, but maybe not quite so innocently amusing anymore." www.spytalk.co/p/inside-the...

“What we need today is to produce more Rafales, more air defence systems, more ammunition. We need to desensitise several countries from their dependence on the F-35 and expand the Rafale club.”

Editorial @elpais.com after yesterday's pro-Europe demonstration in Rome: "For Europe - The time has come for citizens to unite to defend eight decades of social and democratic conquestss. Europe is suffering the biggest offensive in history since the defeat of Nazism..." elpais.com/opinion/2025...

💭 China’s ‘two sessions’ points to determination to rebuff Trump ⛔ In this First glance, @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social dissects the recently held National People's Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. What will this mean for Europe? 🔗 buff.ly/Wih14BE #EconSky

Two new heroes in the European Union Pantheon: Putin reinforced NATO, Trump reinforced non-US Nato.

Lagarde: Quantitative Tightening is working in the background and not part of monetary policy.

Public support for the #euro reached historically high levels during the #pandemic in spite of the rise in unemployment. Expansionary fiscal & monetary policies initiated at the #EU level significantly contributed to this outcome. Felix Roth, Lars Jonung cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Lagarde#: risks are all over the place. Does this mean more or less caution when moving or not moving? In any case, it seems that the downward direction of rates is no longer clear.

While domestic developments get steadier in the EU, global uncertainty is acute. This creates tension for the ECB, which could exit its meeting by meeting approach when concentrating on the domestic situation, but cannot do it because of global developments.

Putin and Trump are complementing each other: Putin reinforced NATO with the membership of Finland and Sweden, Trump is forcing non-US NATO to pull together.

The "new right" is really the old communist left. Trumpism and all are destroying everything old conservatives stand for.

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❗ Trump tariffs are here: how should the EU respond? Read Ignacio Garcia Bercero's First glance, published last week, on how the Commission can best react to reciprocal tariffs. 🔗 Read the piece here: https://buff.ly/3QmlIxO #EconSky

📢 Live now! How are economic shifts reshaping seven Eastern European nations, from trade and energy to financial stability, amid regional disruptions? Join the discussion below! #EconSky

Trump's tariffs characteristics depend on their purpose. To generate revenue: must be moderate (Laffer); general; permanent To force behaviour towards non-economic objectives (Canada as 51th State): should be very high; temporary; general To reshore activity they should be high; sectoral; permanent

The Russian invasion of Ukraine was an ideational watershed. Ideas that have been proven wrong since then: 1) EU can't survive without RU energy 2) US will defend Europe; EU should not have military functions 3) Popper is wrong, total free speech is not a problem for democracies 1/x

Interview with @CNBC on #China-#Italy trade: www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0...

Trump’s numbers on US & European aid to Ukraine are completely fabricated — Europe has given more to Ukraine and the US hasn’t reached anywhere near $350 billion.

How to kill the Fed’s independence https://www.ft.com/content/28d01c79-7d49-46ff-b666-9b6e0bdaa716

If you thought the Fed was safe from Trump's executive orders and actions of the new administration, read this and think again www.ft.com/content/28d0...

moar aMeRiCaN eXcEpTiOnAlIsM

Signs are emerging that Trump’s policy onslaught is starting to hurt markets

The next German government is inheriting an economy that could stagnate for a third straight year, Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has warned.

Who could stop Trump#? The bond market, The equity market, Judges, Public opinion, A public administration true to the Constitution, Generals. Will they stop him? This is the million € question.

This.