I started work at 7am on my birthday to bring you this cheery news. I know how to have fun. 👇

Quite mixed UK labour market data. 100k drop in payrolls in April very eye-catching - ostensibly biggest since May 2020 - but hard to know what to make of it. ONS says revisions around the start of tax years can be v large: the last few Aprils show revisions of +90k, +170k, +265k(!)

A flat set of labour market stats. May be calm before the storm if the international crisis persists. Big picture: c500k fewer people in work than if employment rate was at its pre-pandemic level. Challenge: LFS uncertainty + often big revisions to April's PAYE data (90k, 170k, 265k in past 3yrs)!

"Too many young people pushed towards university, says UK government adviser"

New personal post by me: Not all time is worth the same I think how we get to use our time is very important, and imo the most promising route for going beyond GDP as a measure of the economy. But something has been bothering me about it: time has a very different value at different times…

Applications close for our two Trustee positions tomorrow! ⏳ We're looking for a Trustee and a Trustee acting as Treasurer to join L&W's Board. 📬 Find out more and apply: learningandwork.org.uk/about-us/joi...

We're delighted to have UVAC and @holexpolicy.bsky.social sponsor our #GetTheNationLearning Learning Provider of the Year Award! Celebrate an adult learning provider delivering life changing adult education or training and nominate them by 4 June. ⬇️ getthenationlearning.org.uk/get-the-nati...

Super piece! As I'm sure you're both aware, there is rich literature in the systems-thinking (/system change) space that speaks to gardening and creating the right conditions for lasting outcomes. Of course, policy, economics etc are parts of the ecosystem! cc @chrisdillow.bsky.social

This is, as ever, great from @sarahoconnorft.ft.com. I'd add 1st, job-to-job moves & sector changes shocked down after the financial crisis, part I think of general stagnation thereafter. 2nd low voluntary quits likely partly related to limited other opps - firing not up, but hiring definitely down.

UK tax is going to be the highest since 1945. But public spending won't increase; in fact most of us will experience a decline in public services. Here's why - in a thread that I'd love to be completely wrong.

Big change today with the ONS's new population forecast. Rather than expecting the UK population to keep growing until 2095, the current projections have it start to decline from 2055 onwards.

Great to see Abigail, from the @learnworkuk.bsky.social led Jobs Plus pilots speaking at this @resolutionfoundation.org event. Find out more about Jobs Plus here. learningandwork.org.uk/jobsplus/

2026 now officially forecast to be permanent death-birth crossover year Gap will only get wider from now Migration only source of population growth - but a lot less of it than was projected last time

It’s pretty crackers that FE colleges, part of the ‘defining mission’ of the Govt according to the PM, aren’t funded for tens of thousands of young people they recruit & are having to turn YP away. Reminder: almost 1m YP are not in education, employment or training. @rachelsylvester.bsky.social

Great to be cited in @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's report 'Designing and delivering employment support'. 📑 This includes our finding that only one in ten out-of-work disabled people get help to find work each year. Find out more: learningandwork.org.uk/the-benefit-...

I don't think AI will take all the jobs, just a note gileswilkes.substack.com/p/i-am-still...

Really important Big Read this on what is just straightforwardly a misselling scandal taking place in plain sight in my view:

Chart that tells a story from @learnworkuk.bsky.social labour market briefing. Biggest employment falls in private sector like retail & hospitality. Growth concentrated in public sector, like health & public admin. Usual caveats about data, but suggestive of weak momentum heading into current crisis

#AI may be boosting firm-level #productivity, but at the moment, UK employment is declining in sectors with the least AI exposure. See also here: open.substack.com/pub/teraalla... #dataisbeautiful

Miliband to unveil move to delink UK gas and electricity prices ft.trib.al/zI9c1JF

This year’s Universal Credit uplift means that the basic rate of unemployment benefits will go up by more than inflation for the first time since 1983. But the real-terms value of unemployment benefit is still 5% lower than in 2010-11. By contrast, State Pension rose by 20% over the same period.

Dr Susan Pember, CBE, Holex, Stephen Evans, Learning and Work Institute and Rt Hon Robert Halfon, Executive Director, Make UK share their views on ‘Stepping Stone or Stumbling Block: Rethinking level 2 English and Maths pathways’

The index of consumer sentiment isn't broken; models that try to predict it just don't have the right input variables. I fix that and find that, yes, high nominal price levels explain why the vibes are so off. It's the prices, stupid www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-14...

Are resident doctors still underpaid? The BMA’s case for industrial action is undermined by the way the union uses data. 1/6 www.thetimes.com/article/895f...

Super interesting piece from the @financialtimes.com team as ever - cutting through some of the blather & bluster.

‘The absolute friend is the truth’: inside Byron Nicolaides’ reckoning over City & Guilds https://feweek.co.uk/the-absolute-friend-is-the-truth-inside-byron-nicolaides-reckoning-over-city-guilds/

Thank you to our friends @workfoundation.bsky.social for highlighting this research. More to come on this topic from the @learnworkuk.bsky.social team...

This year’s Universal Credit uplift means that the basic rate of unemployment benefits will go up by more than inflation for the first time since 1983. But the real-terms value of unemployment benefit is still 5% lower than in 2010-11. By contrast, State Pension rose by 20% over the same period.

Great news - employers can pay for these management apprenticeships if they want to, the levy is a minimum not a maximum. Or they can pay for shorter training if it’s beneficial. It’s in their business interests to have great leaders. (On a quick look c90% of team leader apprentices are aged 25+).

🚨 Two top City & Guilds execs will legally challenge their dismissal from their roles, FE Week can reveal https://feweek.co.uk/city-guilds-execs-to-launch-legal-action-after-exit/

Same. (Or, at least, half right).

New data for 1st half of 25-26 shows 15% drop in adults doing English & maths in FE, due to Govt dropping it in apprenticeships. Achievements have halved since 2010. Reminder: 9m adults in England have low literacy or numeracy. Current trends, 25 years+ to help all. Harms inclusion & productivity.

In spite of all the talk of Claude Code and Codex meaning the end of humans writing code, software job adverts are actually going up, according to @jburnmurdoch.ft.com's crunching of millions of job ads for this week's The AI Shift www.ft.com/content/7325...

Great news: 1.3 million people have been lifted out of poverty this morning! All thanks to a change in the statistics. After changing how income data is gathered, the DWP now believes it was over-estimating 'low income' levels by at least a million people in recent years, including 400k children.

useful Substack identifying the UK productivity problem as more on the side of demand for innovation than supply of it open.substack.com/pub/jundu1/p...

Updated DWP evidence on impact of offering extra Work Coach support to people on UC Health. Summary: small +ve impact for low cost intervention for large group. Shorter summary: offering help to those that want it makes a difference, worth doing, doesn’t solve everything.

My column this week: on how pensioners hold up our civic life (and why Gen X pensioners won’t be able to easily replace them)

One thing I didn't mention earlier. While employment's fairly flat overall, most of the growth is in more public sector areas like health & social care. More private sector areas like retail, hospitality & manufacturing have been falling. Another warning sign. Full briefing below.

Interesting today programme piece on regional inequality - but I worry we are still fighting old battles Spatial inequality basically flatlining, the problem is growth - still talking about London as some sort of high growth city makes us complacent

"Worryingly, the number of young people not in employment or full-time education remains stubbornly stuck at 1.25 million." ✍️ L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social responds to today's labour market statistics from ONS.

1. Fairly flat set of labour market stats today. Some further easing, including in earnings growth, but any falls seem much smaller than pre-Christmas data. This leaves underlying challenges, like needing another 2m people in work to hit Govt 80% employment rate target. And economic risks ahead.

Check out L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social's response to the Government's expansion of support for young people in: 🗞️ @bigissue.com: www.bigissue.com/news/employm... 🗞️ @feweek.bsky.social: feweek.co.uk/employers-of...

I missed this: Govt published LPC's remit for the 2027 minimum wage rates on Monday (the rates coming in next month are already set). Main take-away is Govt wants a more cautious approach to the youth rates. It has dialed up the 'worry about employment' bit of the remit. www.gov.uk/government/p...

The Chancellor's Mais lecture makes an interesting argument. That the Employment Rights Act et al create two way flexibility & should incentivise employers to retain and train. I've heard this before but not, I think, from ministers. Could it work?

More policy re c1m 16-24s who are NEET. In short, good news 22-24s will get more help & there's more financial incentives for employers to hire young people. But we need to do more to engage the 3 in 4 NEETs not on unemployment-linked benefits & employer incentives are rowing against economic tides

"We need to do more to systematically engage every young person who is NEET, regardless of benefit status." ✍️ L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social explores how we can support NEET young people in FE News. "This is too important not to give it our all. There are one million reasons to act."

More thoughts from me for @fenews.bsky.social on the Government's NEET announcements. In short, some good stuff on employer incentives & widening eligibility for the Job Guarantee to 22-24 year olds. But much more to do on wider context for employers & engaging the 3 in 4 NEETs not on u/e benefits.

“We know being out of work and education when you’re young has a really lasting effect on your career, so the effects of this will reverberate across the decades if we don’t do something about it.” L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social comments on the expansion of the Youth Guarantee in the FT.

This is the flipside of the £ incentives to take on young apprentices. Ultimately need to make choices in a fixed budget. And an apprenticeship is not the answer to everything. Not to say mgt doesn't matter, it does. Good news: employers can still invest in these, the levy is a floor not a ceiling.

More policy re c1m 16-24s who are NEET. In short, good news 22-24s will get more help & there's more financial incentives for employers to hire young people. But we need to do more to engage the 3 in 4 NEETs not on unemployment-linked benefits & employer incentives are rowing against economic tides