The overall number of #vacancies in the UK #labour market has stabilised. In sectors whose tasks are most automatable and/or augmentable by #AI, the number of vacancies has in fact increased since May 2025. Is the AI-induced hiring pause already over? #dataisbeautiful

UK's #GDP contracted (-0.1%) in the three months to October 2025. This is probaby just noise. More worrying is the composition: the big growth engines, business services, have seen a slow-down, while growth was held up by public services. Let's hope the slow-down is temporary. #dataisbeautiful

Economists and businesses complain about #uncertainty; it's a drag on investment and consumption. But let's point out something positive (that I mentioned at the Treasury Select Committee): the UK actually appears less impacted by current geopolitical turmoil than many of our peers. #dataisbeautiful

Looking at #labour #productivity just by sector or size is misleading. The lowest-productivity businesses are similarly low-productivity across sectors; and all sectors have high productivity businesses -- and they are not always the largest. #dataisbeautiful

What to expect from next week's #labour #market statistics? They will be for August - October, so quite backward looking. Closer to real time, the number of proposed redundancies shot up in November (see chart). This will surely show up in slower wage growth at some point? #dataisbeautiful

Fascinating new analysis by the ONS on UK #business #dynamism and #productivity. Firms employing a third of workers in the non-financial business economy contributed negatively, and the next third only marginally, to productivity #growth. Full ONS analysis: bit.ly/48Yhqqn

Honoured to join such a diverse panel of economists - @helenmiller.bsky.social, Peder Beck-Friis, @ruthcurtice.bsky.social - for today’s Treasury Select Committee Budget hearing. Learned a great deal from colleagues' in-depth expertise and brilliant exposition of the evidence. bit.ly/4pRI3TL

I agree with the OBR that there's little in this #budget that will drive growth. But looking across all 75 policy decisions, there are _some_ that are at least potentially marginally positive. Shame they are marginal, and shame they weren't emphasised in the narrative. #dataisbeautiful

Don't forget to sign up to our online event at 1pm to hear our #Budget analysis and the take from the markets with @pgimglobal.bsky.social's Katharine Neiss and from businesses with CBI's Mohammad Jamei, chaired by @teraallas.bsky.social 👇A not-to-be-missed webinar!🖱️📝👇 niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...

A total of 2 out of 75 policy decisions in yesterday's #Budget were what I would call 'material'. Were all of the 73 others really necessary? Politically, possibly yes, but economically, they add to the complexity costs of the UK's fiscal regime. #dataisbeautiful

Did you notice that this was a record-breaking #Budget? A total of 88 policy decisions were announced, 75 of which were new. A very wide _spread_ of a smorgasbord, then. Note: the materiality of measures is typically inversely correlated with their number... #dataisbeautiful

The OBR’s EFO makes for a riveting read. Box 3.1 is excellent — not least for compelling departments to provide evaluation evidence on supply-side policies. As for this #Budget: “the impacts on government and business investment are too small to affect potential output.” Ouch. #dataisbeautiful

The #Budget says that it "protects increased public investment over the Parliament and delivers the infrastructure needed to drive growth". Put in context, though, public sector gross investment still stays at 11% of total managed expenditure to 2030/31. #dataisbeautiful

At #Budget2025, the OBR trend #productivity #growth forecast was downgraded as expected, from 1.3% to 1.0%. This is still much higher than recent outturns (see chart). Is there a risk of future downgrades? #dataisbeautiful

Will today's #Budget boost productivity? Get a head start on how the budget will impact productivity: podfollow.com/productivity... @bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), Louise Hellem (CBI) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).

It's likely the #Budget2025 speech will say something about #capital #investment and #growth. The much-talked-about additional £113bn previously increased capex DEL from 9% to 10% of all public spending. Hardly transformational. Let's see. #dataisbeautiful

Tomorrow is #Budget Day - And the day after tomorrow is our event presenting our analysis on it and discussing all the various announcements with PGIM and CBI, chaired by @teraallas.bsky.social 💻Online ⏰ 1-2pm Signed up here👇 #Budget2025 #UKeconomy #Chancellor niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...

One thing I'm not looking forward to in the #Budget2025 is the number of policy decisions. Why do there have to be so many? [Of course, politics...] But did each of those nearly 1,000 policy decisions at fiscal events since Budget 2014 really make a positive difference? #dataisbeautiful

Up to three million UK jobs in declining occupations could disappear by 2035, largely due to AI and automation – more than previously forecast. This is one of many findings from the final report from our 5-year Skills Imperative 2035 Programme. Find out more 👇 www.nfer.ac.uk/press-releas...

#Budget day is on Wednesday - does the UK need to invest more money in the NHS? @teraallas.bsky.social provides her expertise on the latest Productivity Puzzles ep.: podfollow.com/productivity... The ep. also features @econstevem.bsky.social & Louise Hellem, alongside host @bartvanark.bsky.social.

As the debates for #Budget2025 reach their final crescendo, I challenge you to look at the chart below. It is data you almost never see or hear of, because it is highly inconvenient for most political persuasions. #dataisbeautiful

#Gemini is nice and grovelling when it makes a mistake. "You are absolutely correct and I deeply apologize. I have made a significant error in jumping ahead and assuming you had added the code when you clearly stated we should slow down. That was unacceptable, and I will correct it immediately."

Consumer confidence fell again, to -19. Is the UK in a 'vibecession'? #GDP, disposable income and real wages have been growing, but consumers remain gloomy about the broader economy and, perhaps, the #Budget2025. #dataisbeautiful

Pleased to have contributed to this excellent Bloomberg article by Tom Rees and Irina Anghel. The data on the value of a university degree is confusing, but not after reading this. Plus we updated our analysis of #AI impact on job ads. bit.ly/4icuCuY #dataisbeautiful

It's obvious that mental health impacts on workers' #productivity; it's also confirmed by data. Often the issues themselves are caused by work, and avoidable. Read our chapter on #wellbeing and productivity in "Reimagining Business Schools for the 21st Century" (bit.ly/4rtIMfB). #dataisbeautiful

Does increasing growth in the long run mean making politically difficult decisions in the short term? podfollow.com/productivity... This special Budget episode features Louise Hellem (CBI), @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).

NEW PODCAST - Will we get a productive #budget? New episode of Productivity Puzzles looks at how the budget matters for #productivity and how productivity shapes the budget. Great conversation with Bart van Ark (host), Louise Hellem (CBI) and Stephen Millard (NIESR)! Listen here: lnkd.in/e8dCVbKG

Why has #NHS #productivity underperformed? Same as the broader economy: lack of productive capital to support workers. Capital per worker declined by a massive 36% to 2020, probably more since. #dataisbeautiful #NHSProductivityCommission report: bit.ly/3WPxu76 UK's capital gap: bit.ly/455vGwe

Most organisations haven't yet reduced their workforce across the board due to #AI. However, more expect declines next year. That's why we don't yet see big #productivity gains but do see a slowdown in hiring. #dataisbeautiful "State of AI": bit.ly/3LuVzh2 Effect on UK job market: bit.ly/450jtbv

More striking stats from our #NHSProductivityCommission report (bit.ly/3WPxu76). UK hospital length of stay (a key #productivity indicator) increased hugely from 2019 to 2023. Hospital employment jumped by >15%. No wonder £ spent are not translating into better health outcomes. #dataisbeautiful

Business #investment is a leading indicator of #productivity #growth. It is not picking up, and nor do businesses expect it to. Access to finance is _not_ the reason for the vast majority of firms. So the trillion dollar question is: why are UK businesses so reticent to invest? #dataisbeautiful

Is the UK seeing a #productivity revival, if we look at alternative data from PAYE payrolls? No. Putting this data into context reveals that productivity #growth post-pandemic has still been abysmal. [Reminder: #OBR mid-term projection in March 2025 was still 1.3%.] #dataisbeautiful

Adoption of #AI is driving sales, profitability, and growth - right? Well... [And it's not yet showing up in productivity, either.] For this sample of large firms, the (self-reported) main impact is so far has been in innovation. Full report: bit.ly/3LuVzh2 #dataisbeautiful

In the upcoming #UKBudget, does it make sense to "protect the NHS"? Our #NHSProductivityCommission analysis suggests we were already getting poor value for money pre-pandemic, relative to comparator countries. Full report here: bit.ly/3WPxu76 #dataisbeautiful

📣 How are SMEs using generative AI today? Can it help address labour and skill challenges? If you missed our second Autumn 2025 Digit Debates event, ‘Generative AI: A solution to the SME skills challenge?’, you can now watch a recording on our website: digit-research.org/events/gener...

Fantastically informative report by my colleagues at McKinsey and QuantumBlack on the State of #AI. Below just one of the critical insights on how to turn experimentation into enterprise-level productivity and value. Full report here: bit.ly/3LuVzh2 #dataisbeautiful

Really excited to see this published and honoured to have contributed a chapter with the brilliant @profcarycooper.bsky.social, on business schools' and business leaders' opportunity to support workplace #wellbeing, and, of course, #productivity. Shoutout to @usociety.bsky.social for fab dataset!

Generative AI: A solution to the SME skills challenge? 📆 Wednesday 5 November 🕰️ 12.30pm-2pm (GMT) 🗣️ Speakers: Marguerita Lane 👥 Discussants: @teraallas.bsky.social, Ian O'Donnell MBE, Prof. Ödül Bozkurt 🪑 Chair: Prof. Mark Stuart 🔗 Register: digit-research.org/events/gener...

Outstanding speech by @bankofengland.bsky.social Catherine L. Mann on the UK's "consumption gap" at the @resfoundation.bsky.social. Evidence that scarring (inflation shock) is still influencing people's consumption and saving decisions. Link to speech: bit.ly/4n1PhTl

Important research on the link between employment legislation and innovation. Think the UK need not worry? According to research, UK restructuring costs still considerably higher than the US, Switzerland. #dataisbeautiful The Economist on How Europe crushes innovation: bit.ly/4mVKxhY

UK #AI adoption continues to grow, with 24% of businesses now saying they are using specific AI tools (up from 15% a year ago). Broadly, adoption (Y-axis) mirrors estimates of AI's ability to automate or augment tasks (X-axis) within the occupations typical for each sector. #dataisbeautiful

Pleased to have contributed to this timely, and thoughtful, article, by @barneymac.bsky.social at The Observer, on #AI and graduate #jobs. I agree with the main take: the broader economy is a bigger cause of young people's job challenges than AI. #dataisbeautiful bit.ly/4nTz1V4

#AI has a trust problem. Luckily for those wanting to use it to power services, no-one has a solid definition of #AI. So, if you need to, just call it "software". Interesting ONS survey results here: bit.ly/3VyJgSK

What do you use #ChatGPT for? Work, life, both? Do you conform to your age/sex/job stereotype? What uses are you missing out on? I'm a heavy user, but how do people use it for "Greetings and chitchat"? Do enlighten me. Absolutely fascinating paper: bit.ly/4neZ9dn #dataisbeautiful

Knew it! A fascinating, balanced, read. "The big picture is that the benefits of sunlight outweigh the risks—provided you don’t get sunburnt.” [I wish they'd said more about benefits of sun even if you are wearing SPF50 -- does it still count/help? Helps my mood, for sure!] bit.ly/4pxM00u

Enjoyed the wide-ranging (if early!) conversation with @felicityhannah.bsky.social, Lucy Coutts, and Michelle Laithwaite on BBC #WakeUpToMoney. Is the £150bn to be invested in the UK by US tech firms a big deal? I think we all agreed it was material and positive. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Wow, #NHS (and social care) #productivity has never been more important, as shown here by @theifs.bsky.social report bit.ly/4mhSzkN. A couple of good papers on this by @productivity.bsky.social, in comments. #NHSProductivityCommission #dataisbeautiful

Pleased to have contributed to this article on the cooling #labour #market (more complex than headlines about #AI or #vacancies suggest). Quit rates are down from around 1.3% to 0.8%, similar to pre-pandemic. Employers need to watch out for "quiet quitting" (see: bit.ly/3SUSrv3). bit.ly/4gpJpS1

Should the BoE remain worried about still-high #wage #growth in the UK? Probably yes. But there is some good news (from an #inflation perspective): wages are moderating relatively strongly particularly in consumer-facing sectors that tend to drive inflation more. #dataisbeautiful

Pleased to see that monthly #GDP got almost no coverage on Friday. Way more interesting are the long-term trends in, e.g., the sectoral statistics. This chart is one (important) illustration, when talking about things like #growth and #industrial strategy... #dataisbeautiful