Some potentially good news on UK #productivity turning a corner. However, re-basing the data and looking at the longer term illustrates how tentative this is. #dataisbeautiful

Demand for AI skills is rising rapidly. But so too is demand for business analysis, process optimisation, people management and leadership. Judgement, relationships, and trust are the human traits with a premium in an AI-driven world. teraallas.substack.com/p/ai-and-ski... #dataisbeautiful

I've been doing some novel research on the UK's under-investment problem and came across this. I've been saying we have had the problem for 'decades', but the timeline here (1960-1992) indicates just how long low investment has been an issue! #dataisbeautiful

Rethinking Productivity in the Public Sector & the NHS. Join us on 9 June at @alliancembs.bsky.social to explore how productivity can be improved in the NHS, & what this means for other large, complex organisations. Book on Eventbrite: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/improving-... @teraallas.bsky.social

Historically, in many sectors, higher productivity growth has been associated with more—not fewer—hours worked. A short note using UK sectoral data on why productivity growth does not automatically translate into job destruction. #dataisbeautiful open.substack.com/pub/teraalla...

What’s the point of debating #AI, if it doesn’t have any impact on people's happiness? A striking result—and what it might be missing. teraallas.substack.com/p/ai-and-soc... #dataisbeautiful

If AI is so powerful, why isn’t it being used more? Because adoption depends on trust, not just capability (or cost-benefit). #AI #productivity #dataisbeautiful teraallas.substack.com/p/ai-adoptio...

The NHS productivity challenge | @escoeorg.bsky.social Join us on 30 April in London for a panel on why NHS productivity has yet to recover & what reforms are needed for a more sustainable NHS. A fantastic panel, with @teraallas.bsky.social. Register: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/what-does-...

Fun chart from the ever-excellent @resolutionfoundation.org @ruthcurtice.bsky.social Top Of The Charts. Next: best arbitrage opportunities, if any, factoring in travel costs? #dataisbeautiful [Link to RF story: www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/how-...

UK #consumer #confidence has taken a real hit across the board since the Iran conflict started - and that's against an economic backdrop that's arguably more challenging for many households than 2022. #dataisbeautiful

Fantastic appointment! @bartvanark.bsky.social leaves an impressive legacy and Jun Du has all the right qualities to build on it for continued success.

UK #GDP and #inflation forecasts have deteriorated considerably in the last month. Analysts are still not expecting a recession, but moderate #stagflation seems to be on the cards. Tough call for #BoE. #dataisbeautiful

If AI is boosting productivity, why isn’t it showing up in the macro data? A short note on where the gains get lost (aka "the ladder of leakage"): open.substack.com/pub/teraalla... #dataisbeautiful

#AI may be boosting firm-level #productivity, but at the moment, UK employment is declining in sectors with the least AI exposure. See also here: open.substack.com/pub/teraalla... #dataisbeautiful

AI exposure is often read as a measure of job risk. But in principle, it tells us what AI could do—not what will happen to jobs or wages. Outcomes depend on how jobs are structured and how firms adopt the technology (and other factors). substack.com/home/post/p-...

🎥 CATCH-UP: What can we learn about NHS productivity from developments across the wider economy? With @teraallas.bsky.social​​ from our #NHSProductivityCommission, this webinar heard from a panel on what we can learn from sectors and industries beyond health care. Watch now⬇️ https://bit.ly/4b3Ao05

AI exposure ≠ impact. In the recent "Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI" paper there is no clear relationship between AI exposure and expected job growth. A useful reminder that task-level measures don’t translate directly into labour market outcomes. teraallas.substack.com/p/ai-and-job...

Of the businesses that say they have adopted, or are planning to adopt, #AI, very few say they have experienced or are expecting headcount reductions as a result. Consistent with most AI benefits coming through in top line sales and innovation, so far. #dataisbeautiful

Here's the most basic reason #AI is not yet boosting productivity (or displacing jobs): the majority of businesses are not actively using it! Technology diffusion is slow (until it isn't). More of what to expect our article: mck.co/4b8w4wh #dataisbeautiful

UK business investment was down sharply (-2.5%) in Q4 2025, against a volatile trend. What keeps UK investment rates at close to the bottom of the league table? My future research will illuminate, but risk aversion could be a key driver. #dataisbeautiful

Interesting how the oil forward curve has shifted -- across all maturities, but much less at the far end. Of course, the future remains highly uncertain and, due to lags in price pass through, we'll likely feel the effects for a while to come. #dataisbeautiful

Not headline-grabbing, but important and predictable: the jobs which with the biggest impact on job demand from #AI are those that were already in decline due to previous digital technologies: admin and customer service roles that don't require much education. #dataisbeautiful

There's a lot of confusion about what impacts #AI will have on jobs and wages. No surprise, given that it's not a simple question! There are many, many determinants beyond the now-popular 'exposure' measures. I like this framework. #dataisbeautiful

Asking ChatGPT to critique Claude's output, and the other way, is fun. The revised draft is typically still not brilliant, but it is often a step forward. But I wanted to go up a level and ask what to explicitly tell them to avoid. This rings so true; and I'm impressed with the self-awareness!

To contribute to the debate about whether #AI will displace a lot of jobs (rather than just tasks), I’m resharing something I wrote in 2017. The core point still holds: automation ≠ job losses. This isn’t the whole story — but it’s a key part of it. bit.ly/4dQvwwO #dataisbeautiful

New Productivity Puzzles episode: What does it take to improve NHS productivity? Featuring @healthfoundation.bsky.social's report: From diagnosis to delivery: www.health.org.uk/reports-and-... As @teraallas.bsky.social notes, the NHS is undermanaged. Listen to the ep.: podfollow.com/productivity...

#Finland tops the World Happiness Report rankings — again. One intriguing clue as to why: Finns feel little pressure to show how good they are or seek others' admiration. Freedom from that pressure may be central to a good life. How very Buddhist! #WHR #wellbeing #dataisbeautiful

Great to see The Economist reporting on the World Happiness Report. I wonder if Patrick has ever met a Finn or been to Finland, though? Article here: bit.ly/3NNu5EZ See also my earlier post: bit.ly/4rK6i6A #WHR #wellbeing

Fascinating to see the latest World Happiness Report (lnkd.in/gZAgdzuU ). #Finland continues to top the leaderboard of the world's "happiest" countries. It's certainly not because of the weather - the Finns get, on average, a shockingly low 5 hours of sunshine a day. #wellbeing #dataisbeautiful

So much for #inflation returning to (or staying below) target this year... or possibly beyond. While the oil forward curve doesn't look too scary (yesterday's chart), markets are clearly expecting 2nd order impacts: 2-year inflation expectations up sharply. #dataisbeautiful

Heightened oil prices are bad for both #growth and #inflation. But the impact depends on how long prices stay high - and even in crises there are self-correcting forces at play. In GBP, the oil forward curve doesn't look too scary at the moment. #dataisbeautiful

UK households' net worth in 2025 was less than in 2020. A necessary but painful correction, that could mean more resilience going forward. But need to steer investment towards productivity-enhancing assets. Article, Revamping Britain’s balance sheet for growth and prosperity, here: bit.ly/3PpLhAF

Why are oil prices such a big deal for the global economy? It's pervasive: a lot goes into transport, involved in the production and consumption of nearly all goods and services. It's also a key feedstock for lubricants, plastics, fibres... so price shocks spread. #dataisbeautiful

A lot of the global balance sheet is vulnerable 'paper wealth'. The UK balance sheet had already seen a significant adjustment, so might now be more resilient. Nevertheless, investing in productivity-enhancing assets remains a priority. New article: bit.ly/3PpLhAF #dataisbeautiful

Great illlustration of the gap between AI's capabilities and how we use it currently (from: bit.ly/3Nh2c81). No wonder we don't yet see many aggregate impacts in the UK labour markets (even though inside jobs, ways of working are changing rapidly). Our article: mck.co/4b8w4wh #dataisbeautiful

Really pleased to have contributed to this BBC article (and programming). It's not all doom and gloom. Longer-term, there are uncertainties and risks, and the job market is in a transition, but right now there are high quality roles available for AI-literate candidates. www.bbc.com/news/article...

The Spring Statement 2026 was indeed a fiscal event with zero new policy measures and, in total, the smallest number of policies costed since 2014 [when I started tracking this]. Let's hope it is a start of a trend, towards fewer but more material reforms. #dataisbeautiful

"We are witnessing a fundamental shift in the scientific workflow." The social contract with academia and researchers is about to break. This is an opportunity: how do we caerfully reshape it to maximise better outcomes? substack.com/@noahpinion/...

The flipside of #AI not showing up in #productivity is that it's also not showing up in the labour market. Demand for AI-exposed jobs has increased. The (modest) decline for typically young graduate jobs is public sector driven. Read productivity article here: mck.co/4b8w4wh #dataisbeautiful

UK's #productivity growth might finally be picking up - but not particularly in sectors impacted by #AI. So what is going on and why is AI not yet boosting productivity (at the sector/economy level), despite its enormous potential? Read the full story here:https://mck.co/4b8w4wh #dataisbeautiful

If #AI is boosting UK #productivity, it's not yet showing up in the statistics. This is not a surprise, given the 'ladder of leakage': AI benefits leak out at every stage of aggregation, from tasks to teams to firms to sectors to the economy. Full article here: mck.co/4b8w4wh #dataisbeautiful

#AI adoption drives productivity growth, right? Just see the chart below (R2 = .37, p < 0.01)! Wait - have a closer look. AI-exposed sectors' productivity grew faster until Q1 2020, pre-ChatGPT. Check out the real story in our upcoming article (will post link here when live). #dataisbeautiful

WEBINAR: What can we learn about NHS productivity from developments across the wider economy? Chaired by @teraallas.bsky.social from our #NHSProductivityCommission, we will hear from an expert panel on what we can learn from sectors and industries beyond health care. Register ⬇️ bit.ly/3ZJCRpV

Today's ONS release on healthy life expectancy (HLE, bit.ly/4cz4rxB) makes for grim reading. Since 2011-13, public expenditure per capita on health has increased by 25% in real terms, but HLE has dropped, and more steeply for women than men. #dataisbeautiful

Hot on the heels of our first evidence event on learning from other health systems, the #NHSProductivityCommission is holding its second webinar on learning from the wider economy. Join us for this session chaired by @teraallas.bsky.social w/ panellists @bartvanark.bsky.social & Sir Charlie Mayfield

I feel sorry for Claude Code having to deal with ONS nightmare spreadsheets :-( I mean, rather him than me, and for a while I thought the nightmare spreadsheets problem was 'over' because Claude was so obliging. But now I can see it's using up a lot of my valuable tokens!!! #dataisbeautiful

Unfortunately, the expected #productivity #growth revival is rather hard to detect so far... Even the RTI experimental statistics suggest growth stalled in Q4 2025. On both measures, output per hour is lower than Q2 2021... Not great for living standards. #dataisbeautiful

UK #unemployment rose to 5.2%, with an increasing gap between male (5.7%) and female (4.7%) unemployment. Many factors are driving this, but one is weakness in sectors with traditionally more male workers, such as construction and transport and storage. #dataisbeautiful

Census 2031 might not measure wellbeing or life satisfaction. If you think it should, we only have a few days to act. The consultation closes next week (20 February 2026). Here's how to respond: bit.ly/4aBsERt

Is the drop in UK business investment in Q4 2025 a cause for concern? Well, we need the more detailed data to know. For now, I'm reassured that (whole economy) investment in intellectual property (incl. R&D) and ICT equipment and other machinery continued to increase. #dataisbeautiful