So "services" made very little contribution to 3-month #GDP growth in Q4 2025. But does it really make sense to lump together accounting and cleaning, retail and computer programming? The "services" label is pretty meaningless. #dataisbeautiful

One of the more striking findings of this excellent MGI report (bit.ly/4cth6lA) is not that demand for AI skills is rising but that demand for people leadership, management, and operational skills is rising. Good AI adoption requires good management! #dataisbeautiful

The UK labour market has slackened considerably in the last year - but it would be really hard to conclude this has anything to do with #AI, at least at the aggregate level. Vacancies and payrolls decreased most in not-very-AI-exposed-sectors. #dataisbeautiful

A wonderfully written synthesis of the history of causal inference in economics. Particularly enjoyed the analysis of where #AI may help, or not. "The history of econometrics suggests that methodological advances often outpace the understanding needed to apply them responsibly." bit.ly/4cpiLsm

Imported #inflation continues to abate - but will we see a negative contribution any time soon, to help counter-balance still-elevated domestically driven inflation? #dataisbeautiful

Enjoyed contributing to this excellent, positive article by Soumaya Keynes at the FT. #AI is everywhere except in the UK productivity statistics - so far. But soon task-level gains will start showing up at firm and industry level - as long as business dynamism works. bit.ly/4teyaSF

Soon we'll have official data for UK full-year GDP growth in 2025 - likely around 1.4%. That's quite good (Germany 0.4%, France 0.9, EU 1.6%, US ~2.0%). But worth paying attention to sectoral variation (see chart): a lot of growth from business services and public sector. #dataisbeautiful

#AI will create jobs, destroy jobs, and most importantly transform jobs. It is concerning, therefore, that there is an emerging #gender #gap in the attitudes towards and use of AI. This _could_ be just temporary, as the technology evolves, but what if it's not? #dataisbeautiful

As the debate on #AI and #labour markets heats up, pleased to have contributed to this excellent and balanced big read by Anjli Raval in the FT: bit.ly/4rrtyH7. Demand is increasing for graduate jobs with more AI-exposure, indicating the need for AI-related skills. #dataisbeautiful

Great to see the McKinsey Health Institute highlighting the importance of “brain capital” for broad-based prosperity. My only niggle is that much of what shapes the brain can’t readily be separated from the wider nervous, hormonal and immune systems (e.g. inflammation, nutrition). bit.ly/4pXq7Xq

Great to see our research cited in this excellent Bank Underground Edward Egan summary of the impact of #AI on jobs: bit.ly/45oI9KL. The topic is complex and nuanced, and this article brings real clarity to the different considerations. The McKinsey original article is here: bit.ly/450jtbv

UK #inflation remains high. Mechanistically, the reason is clear: typically, in periods of low inflation, a lot of items' prices are actually decreasing year-on-year. Right now, a lot of items are stuck at 2%+ price increases, and few are showing negative inflation. #dataisbeautiful

Good news alert! Before looking at the chart, where do you think the UK ranks globally in terms of (greenfield) foreign direct investment? Right! #3 is _incredible_ considering that we are #22 by population and #6 by nominal GDP. New McKinsey report here: bit.ly/4qtfQDt #dataisbeautiful

Many things drive #productivity, but if I had to choose one, then increasing (the right kind of) investment (public and private) would be top of my list. It was a privilege to share these views with the Treasury Select Committee as part of our discussion on the #budget.

Fascinating detailed industry data on labour #productivity from The Productivity Institute. The ranking of the top and bottom industries has changed little in the last 15 years or so. Interactive data viz here: bit.ly/49BL04m #dataisbeautiful

Will 2026 be the inflection year for the impact of #AI on employment? Only a small number of businesses say AI has reduced their workforce to date, but expectations for the future are higher. Yet, only ~25% of businesses say they have even adopted AI... #dataisbeautiful

Fascinating that most of the fastest-growing jobs in the UK are highly exposed to #AI. [Note: obv some bias here given LinkedIn as data source.] AI both automates (displaces) and aguments (enhances) human labour. Right now, AI-enhanced roles are in high demand. #dataisbeautiful

Great to see firm-level evidence of impact of #AI adoption on #productivity from @productivity.bsky.social. Nuanced findings, but specific applications - e.g., ICT security, marketing, workflow automation - boosted productivity by 10-11%. #dataisbeautiful Paper here: bit.ly/4px0Yme

Measuring #impact requires serious #evaluation. Yet ~95% of the £1.2tn (!) of government expenditure is not evaluated in a way that systematically informs spending or reallocation decisions. Is it good value for money? In most cases, we simply don’t know. #dataisbeautiful

The #impact #economy will reward companies with happy workers. But don't forget about second order effects: any staff who are mothers have a huge impact on the next generation's #wellbeing. Watch full Sir Ronnie Cohen lecture and panel with me, Kieron Boyle, and Dr. Amel Karboul: bit.ly/3KRBqSD

The #impact #economy requires that we monetize the effects of actions. But price ≠ value: many valuable things are priceless. Do watch the lecture by Sir Ronnie Cohen and listen to the panel with me, Kieron Boyle and Dr. Amel Karboul at the LSE Marshall Institute. #wellbeing youtu.be/bjZb6wfFQf8

The #impact #economy is here - but how do you define impact? Here's what I think - but do watch the entire lecture by Sir Ronnie Cohen and listen to the panel with Sir Ronnie, me, Kieron Boyle and Dr. Amel Karboul at the LSE Marshall Institute. #wellbeing youtu.be/bjZb6wfFQf8

The overall number of #vacancies in the UK #labour market has stabilised. In sectors whose tasks are most automatable and/or augmentable by #AI, the number of vacancies has in fact increased since May 2025. Is the AI-induced hiring pause already over? #dataisbeautiful

UK's #GDP contracted (-0.1%) in the three months to October 2025. This is probaby just noise. More worrying is the composition: the big growth engines, business services, have seen a slow-down, while growth was held up by public services. Let's hope the slow-down is temporary. #dataisbeautiful

Economists and businesses complain about #uncertainty; it's a drag on investment and consumption. But let's point out something positive (that I mentioned at the Treasury Select Committee): the UK actually appears less impacted by current geopolitical turmoil than many of our peers. #dataisbeautiful

Looking at #labour #productivity just by sector or size is misleading. The lowest-productivity businesses are similarly low-productivity across sectors; and all sectors have high productivity businesses -- and they are not always the largest. #dataisbeautiful

What to expect from next week's #labour #market statistics? They will be for August - October, so quite backward looking. Closer to real time, the number of proposed redundancies shot up in November (see chart). This will surely show up in slower wage growth at some point? #dataisbeautiful

Fascinating new analysis by the ONS on UK #business #dynamism and #productivity. Firms employing a third of workers in the non-financial business economy contributed negatively, and the next third only marginally, to productivity #growth. Full ONS analysis: bit.ly/48Yhqqn

Honoured to join such a diverse panel of economists - @helenmiller.bsky.social, Peder Beck-Friis, @ruthcurtice.bsky.social - for today’s Treasury Select Committee Budget hearing. Learned a great deal from colleagues' in-depth expertise and brilliant exposition of the evidence. bit.ly/4pRI3TL

I agree with the OBR that there's little in this #budget that will drive growth. But looking across all 75 policy decisions, there are _some_ that are at least potentially marginally positive. Shame they are marginal, and shame they weren't emphasised in the narrative. #dataisbeautiful

Don't forget to sign up to our online event at 1pm to hear our #Budget analysis and the take from the markets with @pgimglobal.bsky.social's Katharine Neiss and from businesses with CBI's Mohammad Jamei, chaired by @teraallas.bsky.social 👇A not-to-be-missed webinar!🖱️📝👇 niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...

A total of 2 out of 75 policy decisions in yesterday's #Budget were what I would call 'material'. Were all of the 73 others really necessary? Politically, possibly yes, but economically, they add to the complexity costs of the UK's fiscal regime. #dataisbeautiful

Did you notice that this was a record-breaking #Budget? A total of 88 policy decisions were announced, 75 of which were new. A very wide _spread_ of a smorgasbord, then. Note: the materiality of measures is typically inversely correlated with their number... #dataisbeautiful

The OBR’s EFO makes for a riveting read. Box 3.1 is excellent — not least for compelling departments to provide evaluation evidence on supply-side policies. As for this #Budget: “the impacts on government and business investment are too small to affect potential output.” Ouch. #dataisbeautiful

The #Budget says that it "protects increased public investment over the Parliament and delivers the infrastructure needed to drive growth". Put in context, though, public sector gross investment still stays at 11% of total managed expenditure to 2030/31. #dataisbeautiful

At #Budget2025, the OBR trend #productivity #growth forecast was downgraded as expected, from 1.3% to 1.0%. This is still much higher than recent outturns (see chart). Is there a risk of future downgrades? #dataisbeautiful

Will today's #Budget boost productivity? Get a head start on how the budget will impact productivity: podfollow.com/productivity... @bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), Louise Hellem (CBI) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).

It's likely the #Budget2025 speech will say something about #capital #investment and #growth. The much-talked-about additional £113bn previously increased capex DEL from 9% to 10% of all public spending. Hardly transformational. Let's see. #dataisbeautiful

Tomorrow is #Budget Day - And the day after tomorrow is our event presenting our analysis on it and discussing all the various announcements with PGIM and CBI, chaired by @teraallas.bsky.social 💻Online ⏰ 1-2pm Signed up here👇 #Budget2025 #UKeconomy #Chancellor niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...

One thing I'm not looking forward to in the #Budget2025 is the number of policy decisions. Why do there have to be so many? [Of course, politics...] But did each of those nearly 1,000 policy decisions at fiscal events since Budget 2014 really make a positive difference? #dataisbeautiful

Up to three million UK jobs in declining occupations could disappear by 2035, largely due to AI and automation – more than previously forecast. This is one of many findings from the final report from our 5-year Skills Imperative 2035 Programme. Find out more 👇 www.nfer.ac.uk/press-releas...

#Budget day is on Wednesday - does the UK need to invest more money in the NHS? @teraallas.bsky.social provides her expertise on the latest Productivity Puzzles ep.: podfollow.com/productivity... The ep. also features @econstevem.bsky.social & Louise Hellem, alongside host @bartvanark.bsky.social.

As the debates for #Budget2025 reach their final crescendo, I challenge you to look at the chart below. It is data you almost never see or hear of, because it is highly inconvenient for most political persuasions. #dataisbeautiful

#Gemini is nice and grovelling when it makes a mistake. "You are absolutely correct and I deeply apologize. I have made a significant error in jumping ahead and assuming you had added the code when you clearly stated we should slow down. That was unacceptable, and I will correct it immediately."

Consumer confidence fell again, to -19. Is the UK in a 'vibecession'? #GDP, disposable income and real wages have been growing, but consumers remain gloomy about the broader economy and, perhaps, the #Budget2025. #dataisbeautiful

Pleased to have contributed to this excellent Bloomberg article by Tom Rees and Irina Anghel. The data on the value of a university degree is confusing, but not after reading this. Plus we updated our analysis of #AI impact on job ads. bit.ly/4icuCuY #dataisbeautiful

It's obvious that mental health impacts on workers' #productivity; it's also confirmed by data. Often the issues themselves are caused by work, and avoidable. Read our chapter on #wellbeing and productivity in "Reimagining Business Schools for the 21st Century" (bit.ly/4rtIMfB). #dataisbeautiful

Does increasing growth in the long run mean making politically difficult decisions in the short term? podfollow.com/productivity... This special Budget episode features Louise Hellem (CBI), @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).

NEW PODCAST - Will we get a productive #budget? New episode of Productivity Puzzles looks at how the budget matters for #productivity and how productivity shapes the budget. Great conversation with Bart van Ark (host), Louise Hellem (CBI) and Stephen Millard (NIESR)! Listen here: lnkd.in/e8dCVbKG

Why has #NHS #productivity underperformed? Same as the broader economy: lack of productive capital to support workers. Capital per worker declined by a massive 36% to 2020, probably more since. #dataisbeautiful #NHSProductivityCommission report: bit.ly/3WPxu76 UK's capital gap: bit.ly/455vGwe