alas, I have been afflicted with a Curse (getting a muppets song stuck in my head whenever I hear the word "phenomena")

Bird knowers of Bluesky, anyone have thoughts on an ID for this? Maybe Gray Vireo or Plumbeous Vireo? I'm mostly guessing, though. I saw it in the Catalina foothills north of Tucson. 🪶

Exciting news: another new jaguar in Southern AZ! tucson.com/news/local/s...

Got to be the Sonoran hot dog. I miss Mr. Antojo.

The default prior for the intercept in both {rstanarm} and {brms} are very wide. Counterintuitively - being on the logit scale, this is actually translates to a **strong** prior that p(y=1) is near 1 or near 0. Always check your priors! #rstats

Starbucks workers are still on strike so we're still posting #birds. Post a bird to remind your followers to buy from a local coffee shop for the duration of the strike. This broad-billed hummingbird supports Presta Coffee.

Apparently Starbucks workers are still on strike, so here's another bird to remind you to buy from a different coffee shop for the duration of the strike. This Gila woodpecker supports Yellow Brick Coffee. 🪶

They say that wherever four are gathered together, there's a fifth; this would be an exciting new interpretation

Post a bird to support @sbworkersunited.org and remind your followers not to buy Starbucks during the strike 🪶 (If you live in medium sized town, or anywhere with a college or university, there's probably a great independent coffee shop near you. This phainopepla supports Exo Roast Co.)

I’d never really experienced it much before but holy shit now I know what people mean when they say MS-13 has a helicopter parenting problem

The look on my face really doesn't indicate how smoked I was here. Haven't done this ride in a few years and forgot how tough the switchbacks are. Beautiful day for a ride, though. (Doing this 18 hours after donating blood probably didn't help either, oops)

Wondering what I did to start getting 3-5 new follows per day from accounts with strong bot vibes

Breaking: Both #TucsonCouncil Democratic candidates are well ahead in early results. (Selina Barajas is unopposed and is having a great night.) All four propositions on the ballot (depending on where you live it should be two props) are likely to pass, at least according to early results.

Black shirt guy had an omoplata *right there* if he just took a wrist grip, smh

I'm begging for atheists to add an ounce of maritime law to their politics.

Okay, here’s a prompt: what’s your favorite short story by someone primarily known for their novels

#nokings Tucson showed up to patriotically support our constitutional rights and protest against the authoritarian actions of Trump and his Republican cronies, also for our new congresswoman @adelitaforcongress.bsky.social #swearherin

We couldn't not rate this classic early DAG by our beloved collective granddagy, Sewall Wright. 14/10. Ten for the DAG, plus one for each cute guinea-pig node. From Wright (1920) "The Relative Importance of Heredity and Environment in Determining the Piebald Pattern of Guinea-Pigs"

My top suggestions of books to read this World Bread Day... - The Focaccia in the Rye - Yeast of Eden - Flours for Algernon - The Lion, the Witch and the Warburtons - Pannetonement - The Naan in the High Castle - Leaven Las Vegas - Pitta Rabbit

We (me + @alexip718.com) will be running a crowdsourced total crowd estimator for this weekend's No Kings protests, very similar to the one we did for June (www.gelliottmorris.com/p/no-kings-d...). Look for a spreadsheet or entry form from us by Saturday, and a preliminary estimate Sunday morning

seems to me this is a proof that causation does not imply correlation. there is a clear mechanism for a causal relationship, but the quantity of thing-doing I perform has no empirical association with the quantity of things still to be done

Rams and Ravens currently trying really hard to out-fail one another

This feels like a *lot* of drops by the Rams receiving corps this game

In honor of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand. NAs imputed as zero.

This is officially giving me flashbacks to the 17? 18? inning Rays-Guardians game a few years ago

Economists love the Mariners because they lead the league in GDP.

Damn, that's a rough way to go out

tired: BEWARE OF DOG wired: ATTENTI A SAM

Didn't have a great answer off the top of my head for the other question but this one came to me right away

I heard an ad on a podcast today from IBM about all the stuff their "AI agents" could help with. One of the main examples they gave was... a college freshman could use an AI agent to learn how to register for classes. So very transformative.

Increase a band Steel and Whiskey

How long have we been able to pass a variational fit directly to the sampling function as an init method in cmdstanr? Huge quality of life improvement vs. writing glue code to extract draws and arrange them in the right data structure (which I did years ago for brms/rstan) #DataBS #StatsSky

Getting tense and true over at BICAS

Where everybody knows your name, but only the Great Old Ones know the name of the bar

Forgot to tag this for the #birds feed, oops

Obligatory St. Pete pelican

I am a man who likes several stereotypically manosphere-adjacent things (lifting, sports including combat sports) and I loathe the manosphere

Say what you will about Steinbrenner Field, but the sunsets are pretty good

Joining a chorus here of course, but reading at the bar is a perfect leisure activity. Last week I went for a book+cocktail after a long day at work. A bartender told me people thought it was weird but she also liked to read there on her days off, then we traded book recs. 10/10 would recommend

23, but it'll be 24 in a week when I go to #JSM2025

Planted sunflowers on a lark because I had a couple empty pots and I'm very happy I did!

Never going to complain about Jansen getting on base ofc, but Chandler Simpson being stuck behind the catcher on the basepaths does take a little of the fun out of watching him

As someone who went to grad school in math, I have long been familiar with "vibe physics", in the form of unsolicited crackpot emails about the lost secrets of Archimedes or whatever. Nothing new here

Seattle Mariners’ reliever/cat daddy Andres Munoz unveiled his All-Star Game glove today, with a portrait of Matilda on it. 😻 #CatsofBlueSky

Inching towards that two gallon mark

Yes, cookie recipes exist to satisfy an Episcopalian mindset.

A tiny sentinel #birds

A moment I still remember from undergad classes: in a discussion section for first quarter QM, another student complained that she was tired of the harmonic oscillator. The TA said, "I have some bad news," and then turned and wrote on the board: Everything is a harmonic oscillator

For me, I think it would have to be a Hozier song. I've never quite had it in me to put one in at bar karaoke. Lately, occasionally I think on a good day I could manage "Too Sweet"... and then I try to sing along with a youtube karaoke track. Maybe if I modify the high notes a bit