I'm trying something new at my site, we'll see if it sticks. Here's a bit of an explainer of what this chart is about and some of the data and design choices made: bcftoys.com/whiteboard/h...

F+ final ratings (combining FEI and SP+) are updated through the CFP championship: bcftoys.com/2025-fplus Indiana finishes the season with the 9th-best F+ rating on record. UMass finishes with the 3rd-worst F+ rating on record, ahead of UMass teams in 2019 and 2020.

Fifteen wins over FBS teams. Eight wins over FEI top-30 teams. Four wins over FEI top-5 teams. No losses. No matter how you slice the data, the 2025 Indiana Hoosiers are the most accomplished national champion to date. bcftoys.com/2025-fei

2025 Indiana (#1 overall / #2 offense / #3 defense / #4 special teams) is the sixth team (and fourth national champion) since 2007 to have top-5 ratings in all four FEI categories. 2021 Georgia (top 4 in each) 2018 Alabama (top 4 in each) 2012 Alabama 2010 Stanford 2008 Florida (top 3 in each)

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through the CFP championship game: bcftoys.com/2025-fei

I went ahead and made an unofficial guide to Bluesky, the official app of sports. I hope it helps you find your various sports/team communities. badfaithtimes.com/your-guide-t...

Updated Elo chart for 2025 National Champion Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana gives the B1G three straight national championships, including two undefeated championships in that span.

Miami in one play surpasses Indiana in EPA/play, albeit with 14 fewer scrimmage plays

Caught the ESPN graphic that teams that score first are 9-1 so far in 2025 CFP games. They are 541-266 (.670) in FBS vs FBS games this season.

Iowa is the only team that allowed a field goal to be blocked and returned for a touchdown in an FBS vs FBS game this season (vs Penn State in Week 8).

This post is a walk-through with wonderful lessons of good chart design. Like so many of the decisions we make for "accessibility" reasons, the end result is a better product for everyone.

FEI ratings are updated through the semifinals, and yes, Indiana now has a better FEI rating than any team on record. bcftoys.com/2025-fei

Fixed now iuhoosiers.com/sports/footb...

Indiana's football website apparently can't believe this is happening either, I guess

Wild that the "losingest team in college football history" is now on the doorstep of winning a national championship. Wilder still to realize that they are also on the doorstep to possibly finish as the *best and most accomplished national champion ever* (per FEI ratings since 2007, that is).

Middle ate and left no crumbs

“If this keeps up, Penn State might slip into the end of year top 15” — things computer rating system guys start thinking about at halftime

I remember earlier this season when I thought college football's upper tier was flattening. I think that might have been a misread.

fun callback to the Jameis Winston play

There were four possessions in the last six seconds of Ole Miss’s last game, so…

Does anyone track "push the pile" rates? We've got line yards, yards after contact, then just when the defense starts to hold up forward progress, I think downfield yard lines belong to those 350 pounders getting involved in the play again.

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 19 (last week's bowls and CFP quarterfinals): bcftoys.com/2025-fei Game projections for this week's CFP semifinal games: bcftoys.com/2025-gp

There were two point-after attempts returned for 2-point defensive scores in the FBS regular season (753 games). There were three point-after attempts returned for 2-point defensive scores in the FBS bowl season (35 games).

First final four of the CFP era that won’t include Ohio State, Alabama, or Georgia.

When they tell you who they are, believe them.

That 16-play, 84-yard field goal drive by Indiana was the longest (in terms of number of plays) against Alabama this season.

Coming into the game, Texas Tech led the nation this season starting non-garbage drives on average *11.4 yards closer* to the end zone than their opponents. Through three quarters today, Tech's drives on average started *25.3 yards further* from the end zone than Oregon's.

Had no idea that punting across the line of scrimmage is by far the most catastrophic penalty yardage-wise in football. 50+ yards for harmless boneheadedness is pretty steep.

Tennessee's offense didn't see the field over the final 11:40 of the game. Vols had a kickoff return touchdown sandwiched between 12- and 13-play Illinois field goal drives.

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 18 (last week's bowls): bcftoys.com/2025-fei Game projections for this week's bowls and CFP quarterfinal games: bcftoys.com/2025-gp

…who did NOT die

I don't know what it's called, but I think I just saw the opposite of "ball don't lie" in the Pitt/ECU game.

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 17 (last week's bowls and CFP 1st Round games): bcftoys.com/2025-fei Game projections for this week's bowls: bcftoys.com/2025-gp

Watching playoff football

Has the "Field Goal Range" line ever been less useful in a broadcast than in this A&M/Miami game?

Game total unders are 14-0 since rivalry weekend 9-0 in Championship Week 2-0 in Week 16 (Army/Navy and UW/Boise) 3-0 in Week 17 bowls through 12/17

Weekly FEI ratings progressions chart for the 2025 CFP field, and weekly ratings progressions for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-wfei (Preseason projections progress from 100% to 0% weight over the course of the season).

Weekly FEI ratings progressions chart for the 2025 CFP field, and weekly ratings progressions for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-wfei (Preseason projections progress from 100% to 0% weight over the course of the season).

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 16 (Army/Navy, UW/Boise) results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei Game projections for this week's bowls and the first round CFP matchups (two big projected margins, two *very* small projected margins): bcftoys.com/2025-gp

Did Navy just punch its ticket to the CFP by scoring on 4th-and-goal to take the lead against its rival?

Highlighted by @heycg.bsky.social in his terrific substack newsletter, the NCAA publishes the "nitty gritty" data that every selection committee it oversees uses in its process: stats.ncaa.org/selection_ra... Why doesn't the CFP do the same?

Playing with some different ways to visualize game performances versus game outcomes, feedback always welcome. Chart data on top informs FEI/OFEI/DFEI ratings, chart data on the bottom informs EWD/GWD/AWD data. Note this is a 2024 team's data, if you're wondering. Any guesses?

Playing with some different ways to visualize game performances versus game outcomes, feedback always welcome. Chart data on top informs FEI/OFEI/DFEI ratings, chart data on the bottom informs EWD/GWD/AWD data. Note this is a 2024 team's data, if you're wondering. Any guesses?

I wouldn’t recommend selecting teams based exclusively on a data output like game rating averages, or even a blended one with other good metrics. I *would* recommend using well designed dashboards with all the relevant data to support informed discussions and team selections.

FEI Game Ratings (opponent-adjusted single-game possession efficiency) comparison of the Last Four In and First Four Out of the 2025 CFP at-large field bcftoys.com/2025-gr

Housekeeping note: As with last season, I plan on updating FEI ratings weekly through the postseason (i.e. Week 16 ratings after next weekend's games, Week 17 ratings after the CFP first round, etc).

Here's an updated version of the game ratings chart with all 12 CFP participants