Whether you use the site to start or settle an argument or just like to explore the data, thanks! October and November were both record-setting months of web traffic for me. I love that more and more folks are finding my little corner of the internet: bcftoys.com

National champions have finished #1 in DFEI (opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency) in 11 seasons in the span, including in each of the last four seasons. 2025 DFEI leaders through Week 14: 1. Ohio State 2. Texas Tech 3. Indiana 4. Oklahoma 5. Notre Dame bcftoys.com/2025-dfei

Here are the end of season (through all post-season games) FEI ratings and supporting data for all national champions since 2007: bcftoys.com/national-cha...

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 14 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei Everyone has played ten or more FBS opponents, so preseason projections carry 0% weight for **all teams.**

Wins vs FBS teams through Week 14: 11 - Ohio State, Indiana 10 - Oregon, Georgia, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, BYU, North Texas, Tulane, James Madison

Noticed that ABC/ESPN college football broadcasts used two different messages on the green line today. “Field Goal Range” is unclear in its meaning. “Career Long FG” is so much more specific and clear.

I just shuddered at the thought of this week’s bubble team arguments in a 16- or 24-team playoff era.

Sixteen teams have an 80th+ percentile average opponent-adjusted FEI game rating against FBS opponents through Week 13. bcftoys.com/2025-gr 10 teams had an 80th+ percentile average FEI game rating on selection day in 2024, and 8 of them made the field. 4 of the top 5 were CFP semifinalists.

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 13 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei Preseason projections carry 5% weight for two teams that have played only nine FBS opponents (Army & Navy), and **0% for 134 teams that have played ten or more**.

Looking forward to another round of spirited and informed college football debate this week.

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 13 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei Preseason projections carry 5% weight for two teams that have played only nine FBS opponents (Army & Navy), and **0% for 134 teams that have played ten or more**.

Wins above/below what a top 5-10 FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 12, per FEI: +1.4 Indiana +1.4 Texas A&M +0.8 Ohio State +0.7 Georgia +0.5 Ole Miss +0.5 BYU +0.3 Oregon +0.2 Texas Tech +0.2 Alabama -0.2 Oklahoma

I'm pretty sure the CFP doesn't specifically use FEI data in its deliberations, but I've tracked the correlation of CFP rankings with my strength of record ratings since 2014. The correlations are stronger this year than they have been previously: bcftoys.com/2025-cfp

Chipped in with a bit of data for this @ralphdrussoath.bsky.social piece on the current and future state of FBS vs FCS games: www.nytimes.com/athletic/681...

CFP SOR metric "...rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team [and] will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team." collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2025/8/...

90th+ percentile FEI game ratings (opponent-adjusted possession efficiency) vs FBS opponents through Week 12: 7x - Ohio State 6x - Georgia, Indiana, Miami, Notre Dame, Utah 5x - Alabama, Oregon, Utah, Texas Tech 4x - Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas A&M Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 12 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei Preseason projections carry 11% weight for 1 team that has played eight FBS opponents, 5% for 108 teams that have played nine, **0% for 27 teams that have played ten**.

What's under the FEI hood? Game ratings.

FBS vs FBS Trends through Week 12... 52.5 points/game (fewest since 2009) 23.9 possessions/game (fewest on record) 2.20 points/possession (about the same as 2024)

We are here

I think good faith arguments can be made to put a number of very good teams in almost any order this year. And good faith arguments can also be made about what should be the most and least important criteria to sort them out too!

Texas Tech's defense leads the nation in points per drive allowed (0.85) on non-garbage drives through Week 11. Only four teams since 2007 finished the year allowing fewer: 0.49 - 2011 Alabama 0.69 - 2021 Georgia 0.79 - 2008 USC 0.79 - 2009 Nebraska bcftoys.com/2025-ppd

With the exception of end of game/half kneeldowns, every Ohio State offensive drive this season has gained yardage. The lowest end of season "busted drive" (drive that earns 0 or negative yards) rate I have on record is also Ohio State (1.6% in 2021). bcftoys.com/2025-ofei

Piling up close losses, 3-6 (2-6 vs FBS) Penn State is still hanging around the F+ top-25. The best F+ rating for a below-.500 team at the end of the year was 2010 Georgia who finished 6-7 (5-7 vs FBS) and 18th overall. bcftoys.com/2025-fplus

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 11 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei Preseason projections carry 11% weight for teams that have played eight FBS opponents, 5% if they have played nine, **0% if they have played ten**.

Does it seem like there are more close games this year? It's because there are! 43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.

TWELVE

There were 12 total possessions in Saturday's Army-Temple game, six for each team, fewer than in any FBS game since at least 2007. (Five games since 2007 had featured 13 total game possessions: bcftoys.com/possessions).

Clocked in for college football game day

LOVE this awesome and insightful thread on exactly how ESPN's college football FPI Strength of Record ratings are calculated. #datatransparency4ever

One thing the CFP selection committee is consistent about, despite how they publicly frame it, is that they value "most accomplished" (i.e. strength of record ratings) over "best" (i.e. power ratings) every time. bcftoys.com/2025-cfp

"Why does FEI have Team X rated above Team Y?" Game ratings are probably the best way to answer that question, and here's one way to visualize that data.

90th+ percentile FEI game ratings (opponent-adjusted possession efficiency) vs FBS opponents through Week 10: 6x - Indiana, Ohio St 5x - Alabama, Oregon, Utah 4x - Miami, ND, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr

Toughest remaining regular season schedule *among current 0- 1- and 2- loss teams* in terms of expected losses a top 20-30 FBS team would have against it, per FEI: 2.2 Missouri 2.1 Iowa 2.0 Oregon 1.9 BYU 1.8 Texas 1.8 USC 1.8 Oklahoma 1.7 Pittsburgh 1.7 TCU 1.6 Navy

Wins above what an average FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 10, per FEI: +5.6 Texas A&M +5.0 Indiana +4.9 Ole Miss +4.9 Ohio State +4.8 Alabama +4.4 Georgia +4.2 BYU +3.5 Oklahoma +3.4 Texas +3.4 Notre Dame

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 10 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei Preseason projections carry 18% weight for teams that have played seven FBS opponents, 11% if they have played eight, 5% if they have played nine.

FEI and FEI-based Strength of Record ratings through Week 10, visualized. Scrutinize what is being measured and how it's calculated with every metric, and discuss and debate the merits of teams through multiple lenses!

This is a fun chart! The green is the main bsky load balancer traffic throughput from Saturday night, and the purple is how much traffic there was 7 days before (the previous Saturday) The spike is due to the world series - pretty incredible! ⚾

With the first committee rankings of the year set to be released Tuesday night, here's how the BCS might've viewed this college football season so far:

Every overtime football game broadcast explains the scoring and possession system we're about to see. Why don't we also do this 60 minutes earlier?

Wins above what an average FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 9, per FEI: +5.5 Texas A&M +4.8 Alabama +4.3 Ole Miss +4.2 Indiana +4.1 BYU +4.0 Ohio State +3.7 Georgia +3.6 Georgia Tech +3.3 Miami +3.3 Notre Dame

Strength of record can mean different things depending on how it’s measured! Ratings are more nuanced than rankings! X > Y is not as important as what X and Y actually represent. Power ratings can be useful representations of what should happen, not what will, or even did!

Here's a set of charts featuring the kind of data I'd like to wrestle with if I were a CFP selection committee member, representing "best" and "most accomplished" team ratings to date. (This one features FEI data, but similar outputs of other trusted metrics are great too).

College football *feels* flatter than ever, but the #fancystats are measuring some separation from the pack for Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon. bcftoys.com/2025-fplus

F+ Ratings (combining FEI and SP+) updated through Week 9 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fplus

Best opponent played so far by each of the remaining undefeated teams (per FEI ranking): Indiana (#3 Oregon) Texas A&M (#5 Notre Dame) BYU (#7 Utah) Ohio State (#17 Texas) Georgia Tech (#41 Clemson) Navy (#88 Temple)

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 9 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei Preseason projections carry 25% weight for teams that have played six FBS opponents, 18% if they have played seven, 11% if they have played eight.

Wins above what an average FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 8, per FEI: +4.6 Texas A&M +4.1 Ohio State +3.9 Alabama +3.7 Georgia +3.6 Indiana +3.3 Ole Miss +3.3 Notre Dame +3.3 BYU +3.2 Georgia Tech +3.1 Miami

Toughest remaining regular season schedule in terms of losses a top 20-30 FBS team would expect to have against it, per FEI: 3.2 UCLA 3.0 Oklahoma 3.0 Mississippi State 3.0 Purdue 2.9 Wisconsin 2.7 Florida 2.7 Texas 2.7 Missouri 2.7 Kentucky 2.5 Vanderbilt

90th+ percentile FEI game ratings (opponent-adjusted possession efficiency) vs FBS opponents through Week 8: 5x - Alabama, Ohio State 4x - Georgia, Indiana, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas Tech 3x - Miami, Utah Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr