📊 Model Training Drop for Week 6 games is now live to Patreon Tier 3+ subs! This is updated every Sunday night (no later than Monday) Same format as the Model Training Pack Includes opening Vegas lines (updated lines available via the CFBD API) buff.ly/qZAyhFV

🚨 Computer Model Pick'em Week 5 Update🚨 Congrats to @ROFLulose for taking the top overall spot for the 2nd straight week! Here are the top 5 models by Composite Ranking: 1. @ROFLulose 2. @jhnhrris 3. @joshellman.bsky.social 4. @sseljan 5. u/pwoods2122 5. @ArnoldJohn_cfb

🔥 RB efficiency leaders (through Week 5) 🔥 Here are the Top 15 RBs in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush. UTSA’s Robert Henry is still carrying the flag at #1, with Michigan’s Justice Haynes and Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy close behind.

🔥 QB efficiency leaders (through Week 5) 🔥 Here are the Top 15 QBs in opponent-adjusted EPA per dropback. USC’s Jayden Maiava is still setting the pace — but Kansas’ Jalon Daniels, Bama’s Ty Simpson, and even Vandy’s Diego Pavia aren’t far behind.

🚨 Rushing breakdown 🚨 This chart plots opponent-adjusted rushing metrics through Week 5: 📈 X = Line yards (OL push) 📈 Y = Highlight yards (RB breakaways) ▪️ Top-right = Steamrollers + home runs (Arkansas, USC, Michigan, FSU, Mizzou) ▪️ Bottom-left = stuck in quicksand

📊 Offenses through Week 5 — opponent-adjusted success rates X = standard downs Y = passing downs 🚀 USC still surgical on offense 💪 Utah, Arkansas, and Vandy right behind ⚡ FSU & Navy right in the mix Who’s impressed you most so far?

Week 5 delivered plenty of chaos 😮💨 Here are the Top 10 most exciting games according to the CFBD Excitement Index: 🔥 Kansas–Cincinnati tops the list at 8.5 ⚡ Stanford–SJSU & Miss State–Tennessee right behind 💥 Even PSU–Oregon sneaks in at #9 Which game had you on the edge of your seat?

Interesting note from the CFBD Model Pick’em: Players making 30+ picks in Week 5: 2021 – 18 2022 – 36 2023 – 39 2024 – 37 2025 – 65 (!) That’s a MAASSIVE jump. Competition is heating up fast. 🔥

⏱️ First half vs second half ⏱️ This chart shows net success rate by half (offense – defense allowed) through Week 4: 📈 X = 1st half 📈 Y = 2nd half ▪️ Wire-to-wire winners dominate both halves ▪️ Fast starters who fade late live in the bottom right ▪️ 2nd-half surges climb the top left

🚨 Computer Model Pick'em Week 4 Update🚨 Congrats to @ROFLulose for taking the top overall spot this week! Here are the top 5 models by Composite Ranking: 1. @ROFLulose 2. @BenMinaker 3. @CFBNumbers 4. @YCtheflea 5. u/mister_nimrod

👟 Kicker spotlight! Here are the Top 15 kickers in Points Added Above Replacement (PAAR) through Week 4. PAAR = how many points a kicker adds compared to a replacement-level kicker on the same attempts/distances. Hawai‘i’s Kansei Matsuzawa is way out in front right now at +11.2!

RB efficiency spotlight 🔥 Here are the Top 15 RBs in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush through Week 4. UTSA’s Robert Henry is setting the pace, with Michigan’s Justice Haynes and Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy right behind.

QB efficiency check 🔥 Here are the Top 15 QBs in opponent-adjusted EPA/dropback through Week 4. USC’s Jayden Maiava is running away with the #1 spot right now. Huge gap between him and the rest of the field.

📊 New perk for Tier 3+ patrons: Weekly Model Training Data drops are now live! Updated every Sunday night (no later than Monday) Same format as the Model Training Pack Includes opening Vegas lines (updated lines available via the CFBD API) 🔗 buff.ly/mQLES23

💥 Domination in the Trenches 💥 Through Week 4, here’s how every team stacks up in the battle up front: 📈 X = Opp-adj. line yards gained (run game push) 📈 Y = Opp-adj. line yards allowed (run D resistance) The true Trench Kings are the squads winning on BOTH sides of the line.

Here are the Top 10 most exciting games for week 4 according to the CFBD Excitement Index: 🔥 San José State–Idaho led the way ⚡ EMU-Louisiana & Memphis-Arkansas right behind 💥 Even Duke-NC State cracked the list Which one had you glued to the screen?

🚨 Chart season update 🚨 Here’s how every offense stacks up on opponent-adjusted success rates (through Week 4). 📈 X = standard downs 📈 Y = passing downs USC is surgical right now, carving up defenses every which way.

CFBD’s new win probability model went live last month. Now I’m pulling back the curtain on how it was built, why it’s smarter, and what makes it “clutch-aware.” Details 👇

Let's try this again with the correct data. 😅 3rd downs are where games are won and lost. 📊 Here’s a look at how offenses are performing so far: plotting average distance to go on 3rd down vs. 3rd down conversion success rates.

⚡ What were the most exciting games of Week 3? According to the CFBD Excitement Index, Georgia's victory over Tennessee topped the list with a score of 8.9. Texas A&M vs Notre Dame also delivered, coming in at #3. Here's the rest of the top 10:

🚨 It’s back! 🚨 The first PAAR (Points Added Above Replacement) chart of the 2025 season is here. It tracks how many points a kicker adds vs. replacement-level. Through Week 3, Hawai’i’s Kansei Matsuzawa is on top at +8.7 PAAR. Top 15 kickers ⬇️

🚨 CFBD Model Pick'em Week 3 Update @ram_dub took the top overall spot this week! Here were the top 5 models by Composite Ranking: 1. @ram_dub 2. @DomerIHardlyKno 3. @vfsdan 4. @CFB_Geek 5. @PEARatings

Hi folks, for @collegefootballdata.com I wrote up how to submit your predictions to the Model Pick'Em Contest using HTTP requests! Everything you need to build out a prediction submission pipeline should be in here: blog.collegefootballdata.com/submitting-p...

🧠📊 Think you know college football? These 10 charts will change the way you watch the game. Field position. Success rate. Trench play. Rushing identity. And more. ➤ See the full breakdown: 🔗 buff.ly/R5WqiVn #CFB #Analytics #CollegeFootball #DataViz #CFBData

🧠📊 Think you know college football? These 10 charts will change the way you watch the game. Field position. Success rate. Trench play. Rushing identity. And more. ➤ See the full breakdown: 🔗 buff.ly/R5WqiVn #CFB #Analytics #CollegeFootball #DataViz #CFBData

📊 Crowd Wisdom - CFBD Model Pick'em Week 2 Beyond individual model results, here’s how the crowd as a whole performed and where the biggest divergences showed up:

CFB Model Pick'em Week 2 Update @ROFLulose placed at the top of the leaderboard this week with the highest composite ranking! Overall Top 5 1. @ROFLulose 2. u/NotSoSuperNerd 3. @Room44B 4. @DomerIHardlyKno 5. @joshellman.bsky.social

Week 1 is done but plenty of season left to build + improve your model. The Model Training Pack includes 2016-2024 training data and 7 example ML notebooks. Perfect for jumping if you're looking to jump in. 👉 collegefootballdata.gumroad.com/l/model-training-pack

feels good to have week one down and in the books! also feels good to finish with the best wisdom index for week one as well 👀

Get in on the fun!!

Week 1 of CFB is in the books which means it's time for our first pick'em leaderboard update of the season! Congrats to u/hypercube42342 on placing 1st overall this week! More updated in the thread 👇

📊 We’ve got nearly a full Week 1 slate in the books, which means… chart season is back! Here are the most exciting games so far, powered by the fully revamped CFBD Excitement Index. UNLV’s 38–31 win over Idaho State tops the list with a 9.6 score.

🚨 Rolling out a revamped Win Expectancy model. It works two ways: - Midgame → shown in the live play-by-play as a “Deserve to Win” indicator (based on stats so far). - Postgame → estimates how often a team would win if the game were replayed on the same stats.

Smoker’s fired up, terminals are humming, YTTV multiview is doing God’s work, got some pumpkin beer and bourbon for later. It truly is the best time of the year! 🏈🍻

Holiday weekend + Week 1 of college football = the perfect time to build something new. 🏈📊 Whether you’re starting fresh or leveling up your model, the CFBD Starter Pack and Model Training Pack give you everything you need to dive in. 👉 collegefootballdata.gumroad.com

Thursday night of Week 1 means wall-to-wall games 🍿 Think your model can out-pick the computers? Join the CFBD Computer Model Pick’em contest and prove it. Free to play. Bragging rights on the line. 👉 predictions.collegefootballdata.com

The first game of the 2025 season is in the books: Iowa St 24, Kansas St 21 🔹 Postgame Win Expectancy (ISU): 52% 🔹 Excitement Index: 5.8 (via the new CFBD win probability model) College football is officially back. 🏈🔥

The offseason ends today. Tomorrow: Week 0, new games, new chaos… and new data. 🏈📊 Whether it's up-to-date stats or help building your first model, CFBD has you covered: collegefootballdata.com How are you kicking off the 2025 season?

🚨 CBB gets a major upgrade! 🚨 The site now runs on the same codebase as CFBD, bringing you authenticated features like API usage tracking, saved queries, and bookmarks. Check it out: collegebasketballdata.com

🏈 Week 0 kicks off in 1 week (Aug 23). Think your model can hang? Join the CFBD Model Pick’em Contest: ✅ Free to enter ✅ Weekly picks & leaderboard ✅ Bragging rights (and humiliation for the rest) Sign up now 👉 buff.ly/VWyJz1I #CFB #SportsAnalytics #CFBD

📊 Built in minutes with the CFBD Model Training Pack: ✅ Opponent-adjusted features (2016–2024, Wk 5+) ✅ Targets: win prob, score margin, points ✅ 7 ready-to-run model notebooks All visuals below come straight from the pack 👇 collegefootballdata.gumroad.com/l/model-trai... #CFB #SportsAnalytics

🧠 Building a college football model doesn’t have to be painful. I put together 10 tips to skip the trial & error and start strong, from feature selection to avoiding early-season traps. Read it here 👉 buff.ly/XhvQlsa #CFB #SportsAnalytics #CFBD

Got the Model Training Pack and looking for next steps? This post has you covered 👇

From pack to predictions in minutes. New guide shows you: • Which CFBD API endpoints contain the features you need • How to load & run sklearn, XGBoost, and fastai models • How Tier 3 weekly CSV drops give you ready-to-score data instantly (week 5+) 📖 buff.ly/jaEKQcb

🏆 The CFBD Model Pick’em Contest is back for 2025! Build your model → Make weekly picks → Climb the leaderboard. 🆓 Free to enter 📊 Open to all skill levels ⏳ Sign up before Week 0 kicks off! 👉 buff.ly/pxyUIhs #CFB #SportsAnalytics #CFBD

Pushed out another fun update to the Model Pick'em website last night in what I'm calling "Crowd Wisdom" metrics. How well do the collective entries score? Which models deviate the most from the pack and which are actually the most successful at taking risks?

I've been quietly adding some features to the Model Pick'em site. I'm particularly excited by the new Head to Head tool. Pick two users and compare them head to head all time across commonly picked games.

Only two more Saturdays without college football, including today. Get your data, tools, and models ready before kickoff! CollegeFootballData.com

CFBD just leveled up 💻📈 Walkthrough thread with screenshots below. Tons of new features for patrons and power users 👇

🔓 Big CFBD update just dropped: ✅ Sign in to the site ✅ View your API key + usage ✅ Ad-free browsing (Tier 1+) ✅ Chart export, bookmarks, saved queries & more Patreon = perks. Unlock it here 👉 buff.ly/3oqDy9d #CFB #SportsAnalytics