boy a lot of those end points seem ill-timed for electoral politics!

Autor* Dube* and McGrew don’t take into account number of hours worked, nor change in non-wage income of lower-income people. I have brought these points up already.

The welfare expansion that Biden promised to make permanent:

Also, CPI and PCE—not sure which one your chart uses to adjust for inflation—disproportionately reflect the spending of higher income people. Lower income households make up a lower share of total expenditures, so inflation associated with their consumption baskets is underrepresented in the indices

20-25%. Wages don’t break the halfway point until the fourth income decile. Until then, it’s second fiddle compared to social welfare, which has declined greatly since 2021. I’m also unsure of the wisdom of using a chart on real hourly wages when average hours worked has declined since 2021.

What percentage of the lowest income decile’s household incomes come from wages? I’ll happily tell you the answer if you don’t know.

Credit card debt has increased by 50% since 2021.

I think people have noticed record food prices.

Yes, if you ignore inflation like this chart does, things do look rosy for the working class.

Actually there’s been a lot of suffering since 2021. It’s the main reason Trump is in office right now.

Wellbeing deteriorated from 2021-24 by pretty much every human security metric. Example: www.stephensemler.com/p/war-is-tru...

Biden’s approval rating peaked after enacting the American Rescue Plan, which dramatically expanded the social safety net (temporarily)

There has been a deterioration in working class wellbeing since 2022. Affordability has been voters’ top concern since mid-July 2022. Harris & Dems did not primarily campaign on affordability in 2024 and lost. Democrats who did in 2025 won.

11% of one’s income is a major expense, second behind shelter, for people in the bottom income quintile. They’re also not stupid, and can tell when food prices spiral without keeping a ledger on milk & egg & other staple food prices.

CBP didn’t give her or anyone any water; she asked 3 times accg to other reports. CBP killed a 7yr old. “8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ

ICE funding exceeds the military budgets of all but 15 countries, reports @stephensemler.bsky.social. www.stephensemler.com/p/democratic...

Schumer's entire plan for us is feeding us to ICE, DHS etc. in the name of bipartisan support for "national security" Jeffries' is much the same, he doesn't make himself visible by blithering about his imaginary friends.

An alternative to the Jeffries–Schumer ICE proposal: Refuse to pass a DHS bill with ICE funding. Read more: www.stephensemler.com/p/democratic...

After a string of ICE murders, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries proposed reforms — and $11 billion more for ICE. Including reconciliation bill funding, the Schumer-Jeffries plan would give ICE a $30 billion budget, higher than all but 15 militaries worldwide: www.stephensemler.com/p/democratic...

Instead, they can refuse to pass a DHS bill with ICE funding! Invite all of your people to contact your officials to fight this NOW Abolish ICE

I saw some people suggesting the below is disinformation, so, looking into it: Here's Elizabeth Warren confirming that the fight is over whether to attach reforms to more money (she says $10b, not $11b): "Not one more penny for ICE, unless we get some meaningful constraints over what they’re doing."

over a trillion between the u.s. military and ice... imagine how much the entire world could change if all that money was used for good instead

Not only is this an appalling capitulation in the guise of opposition. It is strategically and tactically inept.

The DHS bill involves paying ICE more, which is what the Dems are trying to tack stipulations to. The ICE budget should be utterly gutted after all the constitutional violations they’ve perpetrated.

The U.S. killed two more civilians in a boat strike today. A survivor will likely die at sea.

ICE’s pending $30 billion budget exceeds the military spending of nearly every country, including Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and Iran. ICE + CBP funding for 2026 would total $66 billion, higher than all but 7 militaries worldwide.

It’s absolutely clear that that’s the case in the post, chart, and article. Your comment is moronic.

Money is policy: you can’t give ICE a budget larger than all but 15 militaries worldwide and expect the agency to demilitarize its behavior. Jeffries and Schumer expect us to believe otherwise. www.stephensemler.com/p/democratic...

What would 66 billion do for the American public I wonder

Thinking a lot lately how the last time my classroom was painted was probably 1992

Sounds like your beef is with reading comprehension, not me.

That’s plenty clear in the post, chart, and article. Go complain somewhere else.

imagine putting this money into a new deal 2.0 and fixing roads and bridges, providing housing and healthcare to everyone, and streamlining immigration processes

Imagine if Biden used reconciliation to pass his infrastructure bill instead of cutting it by 80% all so he could call it bipartisan

New York should never let them sleep again

would love if the takeaway here was people realizing "wow there IS money for political parties to pursue policies they believe in!" then reconsider the last several democratic administrations through that lens

We cut kids' health care to pay for this

$19B plus $11B equals $30B. Hope this helps

Because it’s part of ICE’s budget. What Schumer and Jeffries are proposing is giving ICE $11 billion more in exchange for reforms that ICE will feel free to ignore.

ICE’s pending $30 billion budget exceeds the military spending of nearly every country, including Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and Iran. ICE + CBP funding for 2026 would total $66 billion, higher than all but 7 militaries worldwide.

Money is policy: you can’t give ICE a budget larger than all but 15 militaries worldwide and expect the agency to demilitarize its behavior. Jeffries and Schumer expect us to believe otherwise. www.stephensemler.com/p/democratic...

After a string of ICE murders, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries proposed reforms — and $11 billion more for ICE. Including reconciliation bill funding, the Schumer-Jeffries plan would give ICE a $30 billion budget, higher than all but 15 militaries worldwide: www.stephensemler.com/p/democratic...

US arms sales to Israel aren’t really sales, at least not in the conventional sense. More than 80% are funded by US taxpayers www.stephensemler.com/p/biden-sold...

US arms sales to Israel aren’t really sales, at least not in the conventional sense. More than 80% are funded by US taxpayers www.stephensemler.com/p/biden-sold...

This is probably the most instructive moment in the evolution of the Democratic Party on Palestine so far— AIPAC is now running ads against one of its (now former) closest allies in Congress, Tom Malinowski, because Malinowski did not commit to *unconditional* support for Netanyahu specifically.