The US spent $28.7 billion during the first two weeks of the Iran War — $2.1 billion per day. This may be a higher estimate than you've seen elsewhere. Those estimates are too low. This one could be too. See my methodology and full analysis linked below.

Analyst @stephensemler.bsky.social calculated that direct costs alone in the first week of the Iran War hit $19.3 billion, and we're now coming up on the first month of active attacks. The Pentagon, which the Blue Dogs keeps handing blank checks, cut off transparency by stopping munition counts.

Pete Hegseth's first funding request for the Iran War: $200 billion Donald Rumsfeld's first funding request for the Iraq War: $62.6 billion (~$110 billion in 2026 dollars)

Pete Hegseth's first funding request for the Iran War: $200 billion Donald Rumsfeld's first funding request for the Iraq War: $62.6 billion (~$110 billion in 2026 dollars)

REPORTER: Yesterday you told us Israel was going to strike Iran and that's why we needed to get involved. But today the president said Iran-- RUBIO: No. Were you there yesterday? REPORTER: Yes. I asked the question

Read the research, "Profits of War: Top Beneficiaries of Pentagon Spending, 2020 – 2024" by William Hartung and @stephensemler.bsky.social. costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/paper/profit...

As of 2024, there were 950 active lobbyists for the arms industry — 220 more than during the last years of the war in Afghanistan.

Trump as the US military builds up in the Middle East for war against Iran: "We have peace in the Middle East"

"The Times understands that the UK is yet to give permission for the US to use the bases in the event that Trump orders a strike on Iran, owing to concerns that it would be a breach of international law." This is a BIG deal given the US-UK military relationship. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

A military attack on another country is called a war; saying it's just a military 'confrontation' or a 'calibrated strike' diminishes the severity of the act, regardless of whether it leads to region-wide conflict. Something to keep in mind in the non-debates on Iran.

NB: cost of borrowing money has dramatically increased since 2021 and it’s not counted toward CPI.

If you admire the IDF like Stevens, you admire ICE.

It wasn’t just the child tax credit. And it’s not just the Republicans.

Most voters are non-ideological. So when they're asked whether a candidate's "too far left" / "too progressive" they're being forced evaluate a candidate through a lens they don't view politics through.

“The U.S. no longer has emission standards of any meaning,” said Margo T. Oge, who served as the E.P.A.’s top vehicle emissions regulator under three presidents and has since advised both automakers and environmental groups… “Nothing. Zero,” she added. “Not many countries have zero.”

not the only one he's dogwalking today lol bsky.app/profile/step...

This chart doesn’t account for number of hours worked (which have declined), non-wage income, or how CPI is based on the spending habits of higher income people.

Overall, we have tallied 4x more protests through Jan 31, 2026 than we had through Jan 31, 2018

The volume & geographic distribution of protest nationwide during year 1 of Trump's second term was extraordinary.

My team at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman.bsky.social, Soha Hammam, & Chris Shay) has shared a big data update, covering all recorded US protests through Jan 2026. Some key takeaways 🧵:

Stephen datamogging Bill Pencil once again

It wasn’t just the child tax credit. And it’s not just the Republicans.

What matters most is running on issues they care about. Cost of living was easily voters top concern in 2024. Trump mentioned cost of living in 75% of his campaign ads. Harris mentioned cost of living in 39% of her campaign ads.

Most voters are non-ideological. So when they're asked whether a candidate's "too far left" / "too progressive" they're being forced evaluate a candidate through a lens they don't view politics through.

This chart doesn’t account for number of hours worked (which have declined), non-wage income, or how CPI is based on the spending habits of higher income people.

And he's not right! It's all steadily getting worse! bsky.app/profile/step...

I didn’t say “didn’t exist.” My initial claim was “main reason” If you’re going to debate me, do so in good faith.

How and why police actually support the federal invasions—I have been working on this article for ~6 months, trying to make sense of Trump’s nationwide surge of DHS officers, how it has evolved, what brought us here, and what will remain after it ends.

The welfare expansion that Biden promised to make permanent:

From 2021-24: Poverty: +65% Child poverty: +158% Difficulty paying bills: +25% Overdraft/NSF fees: +46% Food insecurity: +38% sources: Census Bureau, CFPB, USDA

Autor* Dube* and McGrew don’t take into account number of hours worked, nor change in non-wage income of lower-income people. A deeply flawed study.

The authors also don’t tailor their CPI indices to income, as Matt wrongly implies here.

NB: cost of borrowing money has dramatically increased since 2021 and it’s not counted toward CPI.

Credit card debt has increased by 50% since 2021.

I think people have noticed record food prices.

Wellbeing deteriorated from 2021-24 by pretty much every human security metric. Example: www.stephensemler.com/p/war-is-tru...

11% of one’s income is a major expense, second behind shelter, for people in the bottom income quintile. They’re also not stupid, and can tell when food prices spiral without keeping a ledger on milk & egg & other staple food prices.

There has been a deterioration in working class wellbeing since 2022. Affordability has been voters’ top concern since mid-July 2022. Harris & Dems did not primarily campaign on affordability in 2024 and lost. Democrats who did in 2025 won.

Biden’s approval rating peaked after enacting the American Rescue Plan, which dramatically expanded the social safety net (temporarily)

Actually there’s been a lot of suffering since 2021. It’s the main reason Trump is in office right now.

Yes, if you ignore inflation like this chart does, things do look rosy for the working class.

Hourly wages rose? Hours worked/week declined; median income gains are attributable to the fact that the age of the median worker is rising; and workforce composition dramatically changed during the COVID pandemic so Employment Cost Index is a better measure of wage changes bsky.app/profile/devi...

Autor* Dube* and McGrew don’t take into account number of hours worked, nor change in non-wage income of lower-income people. A deeply flawed study.

Buzzword-o-matic is highlighting concretely real reasons for the disastrous defeat in 2024? I want people to get mad at the correct targets: the Party and the donor class instead of throwing punches at individually powerless peons for “voting wrong”

Statistically speaking, this isn’t true, but if you feel like letting the Democratic Party off the hook, by all means believe it.

Nice straw man. Please provide data showing that racism mattered more than affordability or the genocide in Gaza for the drop in voter turnout.

From 2021-24: Poverty: +65% Child poverty: +158% Difficulty paying bills: +25% Overdraft/NSF fees: +46% Food insecurity: +38% sources: Census Bureau, CFPB, USDA

Turning student loans back on while also campaigning on how they solved student debt will be forever baffling. Glad for people that got relief, but what a message for those that didn’t.

His climate legacy is rapidly eroding, and the last of his domestic legacy is expiring at the end of the year. It's fair to say soon all that will be left of Biden's legacy will be genocide and Trump's return.