War for oil? It's tough to assume otherwise. x.com/acyn/status/...

It costs about $8.7 million a day to operate the aircraft carrier that Trump now has in the Caribbean, though that won't seem like much next to the cost of a war for oil in Venezuela.

It costs about $8.7 million a day to operate the aircraft carrier that Trump now has in the Caribbean, though that won't seem like much next to the cost of a war for oil in Venezuela.

Here are the at least 6 House Democrats, 3 Democratic-aligned organizations, and 4 Democratic Senate candidates calling for Chuck Schumer to resign as leader:

If the political opposition doesn’t put these ICE & CBP institutional criminals in prison, annihilate their budgets, purge the datasets and repeal their authorities, this will keep happening. And that opposition will reveal itself as a false, controlled opposition that is no less predatory on people

and if I'm too left to be reliable on this, maybe you'll believe those wild radicals at... military dot com.

one underrated knock on of all this money flowing is how much addition harm underscreened agents will almost invariably do, even if not under direct fash orders. There's no shortage of evidence from e.g. Miami in the 90s or CBP in the 2000s that hiring surges lead to more corruption and misconduct.

It's a nice gesture to help be his cleanup crew, but that's not what Stancil has been saying.

This is white upper middle class privilege at work. It's arrogant & dismissive AF. People resented the hell out of it from the Biden administration, & he did the best he could. GOP blocked him every turn, helped by corporate media & pundits. Pay attention to Mamdani's campaign. He gets it. He IS it

I don't use liberal as a pejorative. I am one. Until they LISTEN & consider people's feelings valid, they'll lose, especially among blue-collar white workers & in rural areas. Minorities don't like it, but they know the risk of letting GOP come into power, & we're all seeing it now.

It's a fallacy to base an argument on one point. Reality: a culmination of factors left people squeezed, esp on unavoidable expenses like child care & rent. Many liberal Democrats have no idea how many people they alienate with this attitude toward what voters PLAINLY tell them they're voting about.

🧵 That's narrowing to semantic the full claim he's made ad nauseum that people voted on imaginary vibes. In Covid people got help. Those supports went away as prices went up, esp on big ticket items like rent & child care. Results were GLOBAL. EVERY election held that year went against incumbents.

The ICE budget is higher than all but about 15 militaries worldwide, and we’re seeing what kind of country that gives us. www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...

2023 was when we stopped feeding kids in schools. 2021 was when we started, and had the monthly expanded eitc, and continuous medicaid enrollment. Look at how much having those three things helped just in this one graph. Then they went away.

The ICE budget is higher than all but about 15 militaries worldwide, and we’re seeing what kind of country that gives us. www.stephensemler.com/p/ice-budget...

USDA hasn’t released its data for 2024 yet, but the number of people experiencing food insecurity almost certainly increased again. And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year. www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...

"[T]his is not just a secret war, but a secret unauthorized war. Or, in reality, a make-believe war, because most of these groups we probably couldn’t even be in a war with,” said @bcfinucane.bsky.social about US claims it is in armed conflict with 24 cartel groups theintercept.com/2025/11/07/t...

Trump might be too dumb or checked out to listen, but this is sound advice from GOP lawmakers. They watched voters punish Biden (and Dems broadly) for prioritizing a dogshit foreign policy over domestic needs. Now they're watching Trump do the same thing and voters respond the same way.

The data point that singularly debunks everything he's so obsessively wedded to arguing is how close so many "average" people are to a catastrophic financial emergency based on what they have left over at the end of every month. Small changes that close to the edge make huge differences. It's math.

Poverty increasing hurt Dems, but economic insecurity increasing at every level also hurt Dems

There are 41.7 million people on SNAP. There are 47.4 million living in food insecure households. Only a third of the country lives comfortably financially, according to Federal Reserve data.

Quick, someone cover @whstancil.bsky.social’s eyes!

Any response to the data I presented that proved your point wrong?

Will is arguing that the very poorest among us don’t matter, which is abhorrent, but he’s also wrong in that it’s not just the very poorest who are struggling. www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...

His subthread of this post pretty much proves your point.

🧵

I hear you, and I encourage you not inadvertently to erase those who do from your conception and presentation of the electorate as a whole. 28.6 million adults of voting age receive snap benefits, and millions more are part of families whose other members do.

There’s no contest for who can ignore the most data, but if there were, Will would be winning

Poverty increasing hurt Dems, but economic insecurity increasing at every level also hurt Dems

Will, you’re absolutely pathetic. bsky.app/profile/step...

There are 41.7 million people on SNAP. There are 47.4 million living in food insecure households. Only a third of the country lives comfortably financially, according to Federal Reserve data.

I’m sure this can’t be what you mean, but you’re talking like none of the 42 million people receiving SNAP benefits are also voters.

USDA hasn’t released its data for 2024 yet, but the number of people experiencing food insecurity almost certainly increased again. And will increase yet again in 2025, which is why Trump canceled the food security reports after this year. www.stephensemler.com/p/a-couple-c...

UN report on the situation in the West Bank, October 2025 only: -260 settler attacks (average 8 per day), highest number since the UN started recording in 2006 -140 Palestinians injured -150 attacks on olive harvesting -4,200 olive trees vandalised in 77 villages www.ochaopt.org/content/huma...

Jesus Christ abcnews.go.com/amp/US/5-sho...

People at food banks have “no concept of cause and effect”? What is wrong with you?

He ran for office & knocked on thousands of doors. If he still doesn't understand people were put under financial strain when covid benefits went away & prices went up, it explains the outcome. People don't like having their circumstances dismissed. Child care & housing are particularly difficult.

Saying people who go to food banks have “no concept of cause and effect” is hideous.

I wrote about it! jacobin.com/2025/11/snap...

Dems lost the House in the 2022 midterms, what are you talking about. How does voters’ most important issue translate to the way they vote? In this case, they punished the party in power.

I’d say the massive increase in demand at food banks has been widely noticed by the people there. But don’t take my word for it, there’s plenty of good local and national reporting on it.

Taxpayers are subsidizing arms companies’ stock buybacks and dividends. New research from me: www.stephensemler.com/p/taxpayers-...

There’s more subjective anxiety because there’s more objective insecurity. The reason so many people think they’re worse off compared to before the pandemic is because they are. www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...

Bloviating about how economic anxiety is just “bad vibes” turned out not to be a political winner. First, anxiety was a perfectly reasonable response to economic insecurity, which was/still is plenty of. Second, those whining about vibes are insufferable losers www.stephensemler.com/p/americans-...

“Biden officials worried that attaching their names to a recommendation to limit American support for Tel Aviv would hinder their future career prospects, the former senior official said, “which is in itself appalling.”‘ Appalling indeed. www.huffpost.com/entry/biden-...

Rapidly increasing prices — and prices driven skyward due to past inflationary bouts — compound existing financial problems, like medical debt. Yes, this matters to voters. “In 2024, 36% of US households had medical debt [and] 21% had a past-due medical bill." academic.oup.com/healthaffair...

“About half of all Americans say the cost of groceries is a “major” source of stress in their life right now, while 33% say it’s a “minor” source of stress, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center…Only 14% say it’s not a source of stress” apnews.com/article/poll...

Grocery prices are 29% higher than they were pre-pandemic. If you’re a moron like Will, you don’t think this matters, but for pretty much everyone else it does. www.usatoday.com/story/grocer...