The big winner last night was the thermostatic model. Undefeated

Good evening. We estimate that between 4.2 and 7.6 million people turned out for the No Kings Day demonstrations held around the country on Saturday. This makes Oct 18 very likely the biggest single-day U.S. protest event since 1970. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/second-no-...

“likely the largest single-day political demonstration since 1970” www.gelliottmorris.com/p/second-no-...

As someone whose professional interests have overlapped heavily with Przeworski's, I felt (and concurred with) this bit: "The brutal fact that we find it so difficult to predict what will happen under our current circumstances is evidence that we do not have theories we can rely on."

Big day @maxwellsu.bsky.social! Pete Buttigieg gave a great talk for students about hope and sustainability. Now @jamellebouie.net and @robmickey.bsky.social in conversation about American democracy with @faricy.bsky.social.

@maxwellsu.bsky.social hosted an excellent panel with UM's Rob Mickey & @jamellebouie.net, moderated by @faricy.bsky.social. @jamellebouie.net shared some of the insights from the Q&A on instagram: www.instagram.com/reel/DPZBwVR...

The Trump Administration’s “Compact of Excellence” for Universities is... far from excellent! Indeed, it’s unconstitutional. In this post, let me count the ways. blog.dividedargument.com/p/the-uncons...

This is so rad. My hunch is that it will not only improve kid wellbeing and educational outcomes, but serve as a major jobs program for both parents and childcare workers. Hope lots of people study the results

A free and democratic society cannot silence comedians because the President doesn’t like what they say. This is an attack on free speech and cannot be allowed to stand. All elected officials need to speak up and push back on this undemocratic act.

There’s always a local angle. #journalism

Anyway, Happy 4th everyone. If you want to see genuine and engaged citizenship, do yourself a favor and witness a citizenship ceremony. Genuinely inspiring. This essay from fellow Irish ex-part @kjhealy.co brought back memories of my own swearing in. kieranhealy.org/blog/archive...

The best of the world comes to America for our universities and we're burning it down for no reason.

Just-out YouGov polling shows Trump's approval on the economy continuing to plunge — and his handling of immigration turning negative very sharply. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

University of Michigan Regents come out squarely and publicly in defense of academic freedom against political coercion and the role of higher education and research in making America prosperous, secure ... and well ... maybe even Great? www.michigandaily.com/opinion/op-e...

Like others I’ve struggled to process the attacks on civil society. I appreciated the chance to talk w @mariaressa.bsky.social, @vickymurillo.bsky.social, & @timfrye.bsky.social about concrete lessons for how civil society can defend itself against these attacks. 1/ www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVE5...

If the IRS deprives Harvard of its tax-exempt status, that's very bad for Harvard but it's also a catastrophe for the IRS. Instead of a neutral agency that enforces tax law, it will become a tool of partisan warfare. It may never recover.

Autocrats always try to dismantle universities and other sites of free thought. But the current effort to destroy American institutions is also a reactionary backlash against real progress on racial justice in this country. Backlash only happens when movements are winning the argument.

NEW Economist/YouGov Poll, Apr 13-15 42% of U.S. adult citizens have a favorable view of Donald Trump 53% have an unfavorable view Net -12 Last week 43% | 54% | -11 Start of term 50% | 48% | +3 d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec... d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...

A NBA basketball coach has now said more publicly about defending academic principles than most university presidents.

University coalitions work: Even small alliances amplify voices, share resources, and create leverage. When institutions stand together on principles, they strengthen their defense and make their values visible. This is the way.

The Pampered Idiot, by Leonardo Alenza y Nieto, 1807–45, 📸 by @b_smialowski

Meanwhile

This is a must read for anyone who is interested in the politics of economic inequality in the US. Congrats!!!

The 245-year-old American Academy of Arts & Sciences releases a statement rejecting assaults on scholarly and cultural institutions, the rule of law, & open inquiry--and calls on all Americans to "help fortify" democratic civic culture. www.amacad.org/news/board-s...

Taxes for thee but not for me.

Tariffs xkcd.com/3073

For 40 years, the GOP used policy to push people into the stock market and now they’re just watching while Trump tanks it on a tariff gambit that nobody thinks will work. Good luck trying to privatize anything ever again

This is just like 2008 -- except that in 2008, the government was trying to stop the crash, whereas now, the government is literally causing the crash.

For 40 years, the GOP used policy to push people into the stock market and now they’re just watching while Trump tanks it on a tariff gambit that nobody thinks will work. Good luck trying to privatize anything ever again

In 3 sessions, S&P 500 futures have plunged about 15%. Legit market crash

Check out a new working paper. We find that while anti-feminist attitudes have long been associated with GOP voting, it is only beginning in the Trump era that these attitudes are more likely to be found among single, young, low SES men.

@djpressman.bsky.social, Soha Hammam, and I draw on our research through the Crowd Counting Consortium to show that there is far more protest happening in the US than is commonly understood, and that the shift to economic noncooperation shows powerful potential for future collective action.

Powerful remarks by Northwestern District Attorney David E. Sullivan in Northampton MA at a Patrick's Day Breakfast on March 17. 1/2

JOP no longer requires pre registration for experiments (though still recommended)

Every time you see someone powerful acting like a craven coward in the face of this authoritarian menace, let it stiffen your own spine. We are all we've got.

One interesting bit from Neera Tanden, which I think gets way too little play, is that the Fed Govt spends the most money ($1.9 trillion/year) on tax expenditures, which are special tax giveaways to companies. Musk isn't looking at those: his companies have benefited from them! Tax the rich.

Truth 😬

Really key point here. The *overall* national poverty rate would be 6.5 points higher without social security, it reduces poverty by a much larger multiple than any other US gov't program. And again, this is in terms of the total population, not the poverty rate of seniors alone.

Chart of cumulative protests reported from Jan 22 - Feb 28, 2017 vs 2025:

A struggling working class along with huge GOP cuts to government spending is a recipe for big thermostatic backlash especially around health care and wage subsidies.

Welfare for the Wealthy.

A good read today. www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

The most depraved and dangerous criminal is owed a hearing before he is punished, and we are all at risk if he doesn't get it.

1. @alisongopnik.bsky.social, Cosma Shalizi, James Evans and myself have a new piece in Science on "AI" Large Models, pushing back against much of the collective wisdom about what they can and can't do. Official below, unpaywalled at henryfarrell.net/large-ai-mod... . So why this now?

bright red authoritarian flags here

New preprint! A general overview of stats in public policy research with this (oversimplified but still helpful) separation of methods into description, explanation, and prediction #policysky HTML/PDF: stats.andrewheiss.com/snoopy-spring/ SocArXiv: doi.org/10.31235/osf...

Call to action: Veterans March in DC on March 14. If you know a vet or active service member talk to them about the danger of the Trump regime and encourage them to participate. “We dont take an oath to a king.” -Gen Mark Milley #3E #EndAutogenocide #EndOligarchy #EndImpunity