Looking forward to discussing our new book with John Huber, Jessica Pisano @awhf.bsky.social @pagefortna.bsky.social on Friday, Nov. 14th at 12:15. The event is both in person and on zoom. Hope you can make it. harriman.columbia.edu/event/celebr...

Tyler Glasnow and the oompah loompahs have the same barber.

This graph never fails to be shocking: "The US has experienced the earliest and greatest slowdown in life expectancy improvements among higher-income countries, reported Eileen Crimmins. “We have horrible life expectancy—and it’s getting worse and worse”" www.prb.org/resources/se...

As signing bonuses decline; regions will likely increase coercion to meet draft quotas and this too will be unpopular.

Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...

New article on Russian foreign policy and international law and order from Joakim Bratvoll. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Interesting take here from Mikhail Troitskiy on elite politics in Russia prior to the full scale invasion of Ukraine. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Looking forward to hosting this talk on Thursday at noon. Interesting work from Masaaki Higashijima. Register at this link. harriman.columbia.edu/event/electe...

Dutch intelligence suspends sharing arrangements with the US after concluding that high level intel was routinely being shared by the White House with their friends in the Kremlin. www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/n...

this rocks. when indiana edu killed the student newspaper, Purdue stepped up, printed the forbidden issue, drove it to Bloomington and stocked the boxes.

I thought I'd put the administration's proposed "compact" with universities in context, so I wrote the blog post below. It's especially for journalists covering this story! Many details about how the compact itself works and why the administration has retreated to this strategy.

University leaders need to keep pushing back on the "everyone hates higher ed" fallacy. www.insidehighered.com/news/quick-t...

So many echoes from this article for US politics....

Looking forward to commenting on this paper.

It is a very nice paper that I assign in my classes

Today at 5:00 on zoom and in person. Tune in if you can. harriman.columbia.edu/event/10-yea...

New Economist/YouGov poll: – 39% approval/57% disapproval. Both are the worst of Trump's second term – 35/57 approval on the economy. – Net approval of -18% is "the second-lowest net approval Trump has received in any Economist / YouGov poll" while president (today.yougov.com/politics/art...)

Are the espn tennis announcers paid by the word?

Agreed. Last night I tried to come up with a list of players that would make me root for Djokovic and it was a struggle.

This is what the University of Chicago correctly saw coming down the pike. They had built a world-leading cluster of language and area studies work on funding that is just going to... stop.

This is absolutely catastrophic for U.S. higher education, and for U.S. global leadership. Just the latest in a series of senseless acts of self-sabotage by a malevolent administration bent on making the United States weak and poor.

Americans broadly hate all of this, and we all gotta remember that when it feels like things are spinning out of control

Few charts show our current American weakness like this one. The minute Trump came into office, Putin knew he had the green light to do whatever he wanted and kill as many innocent civilians as he wanted.

These are not concessions. They are objectives that have not been met being framed as concessions. Like me saying it is a concession when I shoot a layup rather than dunking a basketball.

"Uneasy Mix?" Seriously NYT? This is lawfare in a particularly pure form and straight from the autocratic playbook.

Hugely important. Thanks to our broken discourse over immigration stats people falsely imagined that all of Obama's removals ("deportations") were long-term residents, when that was actually a small %. What's happening now is so much more different than the # of removals ("deportations") suggests.

lol NYT www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/n...

Look forward to reading and - more importantly for you - to assigning it to my large lecture class on autocracy and democracy in the spring. Congratulations.

A hugely important point is that international students pay full tuition, so they actually make it CHEAPER for US students to attend college, by allowing for more money for scholarships. Across the board, the reality is we need MORE international students.

🇵🇱💯

Here's one for you.

None of these are "fair deals" for Ukraine and Ukraine may or may not take them. But those would be deals that involve an actual Ru concession. A pinky promise not to continue its invasion is NOT a Ru concession.

This is very poor Ukraine-splaining from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation’s top diplomat.

When not even Fox News can pretend Trump did well ...

„As Trump and Putin meet in Alaska, new @ChicagoCouncil polling finds a dramatic rise in Republican support for Ukraine. In a 21-point shift since March, half (51%) now favor providing US military assistance to Kyiv. Read more brnw.ch/21wUWR8”

How do Americans view support for US aid to Ukraine? Here is some research from a survey I did in September 2023. A bit dated, but these attitudes have been pretty stable over time.

As we reflect on today's events in Alaska, consider this document signed by Putin in 2003. en.kremlin.ru/events/presi...

He has kept among us in times of peace Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures. He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power. He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution & unacknowledged by our laws.

America is here: President fires statisticians because he does not like the data. Trump has followed the authoritarian roadmap to a tee. open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...

“American Academy of Arts&Sciences reports 96.3% of humanities grads age 23-32 fully employed. Earnings in humanitiess comparable to social/life sciences, job satisfaction levels too. A serious mismatch bw actual employment for hum grads +general perception." www.mellon.org/voices/human...

Very happy to announce the publication of Workplace Politics, with @szakonyi.bsky.social and Ora John Reuter. Drawing on data from 8 countries with a deep-dive on Russia, we examine when, why, and how politicians and employers pressure their workers to vote in elections. academic.oup.com/book/60445

I mean, you could cancel Paramount and support @pbs.org instead.

Gallup has new polling on immigration. Topline findings: -Americans hate Trump's immigration policy (35% approve, 62% disapprove) -Share who say immigration is a "good thing" for the country just hit an all-time high (79%) news.gallup.com/poll/692522/...

Apologies, the previous chart was incorrect. I missed that SCOTUS granted emergency relief in Murthy v. Missouri after the appellate court's stay. I also missed FDA v. Alliance. The updated rate of lifted injunctions for the Biden admin is 10% (2 of 21), not 0%.

The Supreme Court’s “shadow docket” has cast very different shadows depending on which party holds the White House. When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases. For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.

Several right-leaning pollsters are releasing enough polls with highly skewed results that they can meaningfully change Trump's approval average. And if your aggregation model isn't designed well, that'll happen. Big piece on house effects and methodology in Trump approval averages: 🧵

Thanks. Very useful.