An uncalibrated #MMM can get ROAS direction wrong, not just magnitude. We walk through prior predictive checks, ROAS parametrization, saturation likelihoods, and where lift tests break down. Full recording available on youtube : dub.sh/oAjXCiG #MMMCalibration #BayesianModeling

please nuke us

🇭🇺🇪🇺

Hot take: all the City Connect uniforms are dreadful. All of them.

Its not wild, its the perfect encapsulation of America.

You could argue that teams with massive negative goal differences don't belong in the playoffs.

Why do software companies assume Linux users want .deb installers?

Most data scientists learn Bayesian stats from textbooks. Few get to learn from the people who built the library. This June, @fonnesbeck.bsky.social Niall Oulton & Robert Zinkov are running a 2.5-day hands-on PyMC workshop in London. Reserve your spot: dub.link/oaudJAt

I'm looking forward to teaching this. I do love the small-group, in-person format. If you can get yourself to London (or are already there), come join us!

Very exciting!

Of all the vile things Trump has done, this is what will finally topple him.

Since the start of the war in Iran, the average price of gas in the U.S. has climbed by nearly a dollar, according to the Energy Information Administration. See the full state-by-state look at the increase and how it could affect you. nyti.ms/4bPAGrw

Just heading up to Boston for @sloansportsconf.bsky.social today. If you happen to be at the meeting, please stop and say hello!

Updated:

VAR is quite literally ruining football. Who wants to watch this?

Fuck this. Connor Hellebuyck is the only reason the US is wearing gold medals. The only reason. www.tsn.ca/olympics/art...

Word of the day: profligate (ˈpräfləɡət)

My gentle Puck, come hither.

Shooting on Hellebuyck short side when he's hugging the post is a low-probability shot. #hockeyanalytics

Maybe the softest goal you will ever see. Canada appeared to have no idea how to run an OT.

If you haven't cancelled your @paramountplus.com subscription, you are complicit.

Springsteen next year. I'm sure he'd love it.

First appearance of Bayes formula in a Superbowl commercial. share.google/0wy4mU4LefXk...

Mercury, Messenger of the Gods, by Giovanni Battista Tiepolo, 18th c, 📸 by @PhilEllsworth1

Wow, Mike Johnson is actually swearing in Democrats now! What has the world come to?

Why on earth would you list command options in anything but alphabetical order?

How are those tariffs working out?

I see blog posts like this almost every day. You never see the follow up post where the half-baked OSS tool doesn't measure up and they crawl back to the subscription. Lather, rinse and repeat.

Someone might want to tell Pep who owns Man City. He'd doubtless be shocked to learn what they've done, perhaps even resign. bsky.app/profile/scot...

OpenClaw FTW

Somebody's getting a cabinet post!!

Someone said "It's like Canada's Mom just died." And it's true. I'm still crying.

Left hand on the ground trying not to hit the pavement; right hand still holding a cell phone. ICE person standing with a one handed grip pointing his gun right at the man’s head. There is nothing about this that we should accept. We all must reject this. This is our government, & they want this

The storm is up, and all is on the hazard.

ICE Agents Wait At Edge Of Delivery Table To Deport Newborn

A simple Claude Code skill for working with marimo notebooks. github.com/fonnesbeck/m...

Should say: “Soon-to-be former top Democrats”

Time to end the Kevin experiment. #FFC

Rest easy, Rob Reiner 🙏🏾💙🕊 This scene from "All In The Family"..... still applicable. Caroll O'Connor 🕊 Sally Struthers 💙

How do you build an end-to-end #MMM leaders can trust? Our new case study shows a transparent, reproducible #Bayesian workflow with uncertainty, lift, forecasting, and budget simulation. Check the Case study here 👉 dub.link/FwwUUNA #MarketingMixModeling #PyMCLabs

Amazing 😆

lol sign worked

Is there any way to simply opt out of USPS mail service altogether? It's just pounds of trash every day.

This is going to be great. Don't miss it if you happen to be at OSDC AI West!

What if your next product test didn’t need a human panel? New research by #PyMC Labs & #Colgate-Palmolive shows LLMs can replicate human survey patterns with 90%+ accuracy—no fine-tuning, no panels, no bias. Read the white paper: dub.link/ifoZHIR #SyntheticConsumers

Why does VS Code look for local paths when running on a remote server? I know ssh is new technology, but it should be doing better than this.

Years ago I passed up an opportunity to work with Nick, and I still regret it. Don't be me.

The Cincinnati Reds are hiring for our Baseball Ops and Analytics trainee roles! Based in Cincy $20/hr (+ COL stipend for trainees in Cincy) www.teamworkonline.com/baseball-job...

Some fresh Van Halen graffiti in East Nashville actually warms my heart.