The best of the best in the administration ...

SPX (cash) closes the last few days

"The broader goal is the militarization of major cities before 2026 elections... Next year, I fear that what they're gonna do is deploy these folks to polling places & say they're protecting the vote. Trump knows without these breaches of the Constitution, he's gonna lose Congress." - Gov. Pritzker

HIRONO: Did you approve closing the Homan bribery investigation? BONDI: The DOJ & FBI conducted a thorough review and found no credible evidence of wrongdoing. You were also on video outside the WH protesting w/a group called Casa where antifa members were. Does that mean you're a membr of antifa?

This photo from Portland by @reuters.com's Carlos Barria 👌

These four stocks currently have a combined market cap slightly larger than General Motors!

Ease of doing business cratering in the US, exhibit 312

Oh yes …

Yes ….

Post-GFC, Phoenix home prices ultimately returned to 1999 levels. During the boom people will tell you how early it still is, but the vast majority of the gains get wiped out in the bust:

The Economist tends to be very well-briefed when it comes to matters of British security. This is the second article I have seen in as many days warning about Russia‘s hybrid warfare against the West. I would take this seriously.

🔴NEW🔴 Thread 🧵 @bylinetimes.bsky.social can now reveal that, during the crucial period when convicted Reform leader Nathan Gill was most active, working directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most senior ally in Ukraine, he was also one of Nigel Farage’s closest confidantes 1/12

The inflation in level of b.s. in 2025 has been unprecedented.... apnews.com/article/trum...

UBS looks at “the cracks forming in US credit markets”: “.. Fundamentals are deteriorating, especially in IG corporates. Balance sheet health for IG firms has dropped to the 27th percentile—its weakest in five years .. the rise in lower-quality leveraged loan issuance signals overheating risks.” 👀

"Why does the US have so many unicorns?" I don't know, but being a place where Bari Weiss can sell her long-form Libs of TikTok blog to Paramount for $150 million and a job offer might have something to do with it.

New @cen4infores.bsky.social investigation: Sanctions, shell companies and Russian state-backed money laundering. Here’s how Ilan Shor and the Kremlin are laundering tens of billions of dollars around the world. www.info-res.org/reports/a7-a...

The number of international students arriving in the U.S. in August fell by 19% this year compared with last year — the largest decline on record outside of the pandemic.

US exceptionalism is based on - market infrastructure, - superiority of NY law - credibility of Treasury - central bank independence, - US universities In the long run, maybe attacking every single of those cornerstones is not such a great idea …

For a country that is supposed to be the envy of the world, growing like never before, rescued from the Biden brink by DJT, there seem to be a lot of terrorists…

The worse kept secret in the US. Of course Epstein's "investors" were paying him 2 and 20% to just buy S&P futures knowing they were not paying him for his financial skills.. Nobody in markets had ever heard of him trading anything substantial...

MORGAN STANLEY: “.. it’s difficult to ignore the market’s reliance on AI capex. In market-pricing terms, we believe we’re closer to the seventh inning than the first, and several developments indicate we may be entering the later phases of the boom.” 👀 [Shalett]

the stock market, where we go to rationally express our views on the long-term earnings power of American companies primarily using options with 4 or less days to expiry

What could go wrong??

In a world where rating agencies were doing what they are paid for, betting on further US downgrade by q1 2026 would be the easiest trade ever... shutdown, cheques, buying voices into mid term Erdogan style, all stars would be aligned to get this down couple notches

Government shutdowns always end up costing extra taxpayer money. The 2018-2019 partial shutdown lasted 34 days, cost $11 billion and led to a lost of an estimated 25,301 years of work, according to a Senate report. https://wapo.st/48cXW1w

Raistone, a trade-finance firm that cut dozens of jobs after First Brands's bankruptcy, told staff it depended on the auto-parts supplier for over 80% of its revenue, people familiar said www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Bessent after Trump asked him to support Milei and his cronies who have Argy $ debt...

your bonus Miller Lite stat o ' the day $787 million the AUM in the eponymous Dan Ives ETF I. Can't.

LABOR DEPARTMENT TO LIMIT TOMORROW'S EMPLOYMENT REPORT RELEASE TO "GOOD NUMBERS ONLY"

Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren is calling on the Trump administration to release the September jobs report on Friday despite the ongoing government shutdown, a Senate aide told CNN on Thursday

As a seasoned macro investor ( alleged ) he should have known from day 1 that China had most of the cards - and the US stock market had the other cards with none in Trump admin’s hands

It has always been the plan on Trump side too …

This should raise so many questions... it is one thing to listen to a presidential candidate say what seems like obvious lies -even at the time - but placating them in front of the other candidate for sake of "bothsideism" is just a very, very, very slippery slope not to be tried...

“I have nothing to do with [it]. .. I haven’t read it. I don’t want to read it.” - Trump, Sept 2024

This is the definition of "Ease of doing business".... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Douglas Barrowman and Michelle Mone's company, PPE Medpro, has just been ordered to refund the Government £122m from a PPE contract. There are two very odd things about PPE Medpro that may affect the odds of the Government ever getting that £122m... Thread:

Trump tonight appears to have pushed the false "medbed" conspiracy theory, which has spread in the far-right internet over the years. www.yahoo.com/news/qanon-c...

Whiffs of Pets.com…

Q: How did the White House decide it was appropriate for Jared Kushner to be working on matters that involve Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia -- 3 countries combined that have given him more than $2.5b LEAVITT: It's frankly despicable that you're trying to suggest that it's inappropriate

I mean, seriously … the shutdown reduces GDP by 0.2 % per week, govt income shrinks

Kalshi "prices" are RISK ADJUSTED estimates.. I will die on that hill and there is nothing more obvious than this one... with the distribution of outcomes completely biased you would have to be crazy to "sell it" where you think it settles as your downside is ginormous...

It's a mark of the habituation of Trump's authoritarianism that a president can summon his generals, tell them they'll play a "major part" in a "war within", announce a force to "quell civil disturbances" & talk of using US cities "as training grounds for our military" - & it doesn't lead the news.

This is "quick and dirty" and may be filled with inaccuracies but based on Bespoke Invest message on the other place with $ returns for main asset classes here are some EUR estimates of those performance. Just imagine how the narrative would differ if financial market pundits were EUR "denominated"

I'M GOING TO SUE ADP.

If you are buying stocks into the govt shutdown due to disastrous ADP, see me after class... and keep praying for the 10% wealth effect to continue...

ADP to Janus....

Also pardon my confusion over how selling a bunch of long-term bonds is supposed to lower long-term interest rates. 👎👍, things of this nature.

Is S&P 500 supposed to move with fundamental news - positive or negative ? Last 7 days news flow has been constant, yet the stuff is stuck in a 1% range … Meme stocks asleep at the wheel, just yoloing on gold ?

Top notch post from Brad Setser & Stephen Paduano on Milei and the Trump bailout. "... there are no atheists in foxholes. And there aren’t many libertarians in a financial crisis." on.ft.com/3Iq4QpH