Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100% RE Last 236 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5)

Australia Electricity Emissions Update: Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 513 kg CO2-e/MWh. Down 25% since 2020, down 38% since 2015 Sth Australia reductions leading the way thanks to its increase in wind & solar generation. Down 28% since 2020, 67% since 2015)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 235 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5)

The year is 2026 - climate impacts are reaping damage across our country. The South Australian government meanwhile is striking new 200PJ off take agreements with the gas industry.

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100% RE Last 234 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5)

I've been cranking numbers. Full year 2025, it looks like nuclear power just about kept its nose ahead of wind and solar. But in H2 2025, while wind didn't quite overtake nuclear, solar did. In 2026 nuclear will drop to third place in the production of clean electricity.

ENERGY REPORTING IS BROKEN! 6 steps to reframe energy reporting in the Age of Electricity... New analysis from @ember-energy.org Kingsmill Bond team and @mliebreich.bsky.social 1/6🧵

we need to talk about that Ring Super Bowl ad

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 99.9% RE Last 233 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

Fossil fuel companies gave millions to buy political access and influence before the 2025 election (It me) www.crikey.com.au/2026/02/05/f...

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 232 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

“A fundamental problem is that we only get this data eight months after the election and that’s too late because people have already cast their votes.” www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

"It’s time to get fossil fuel money out of politics. Australians need confidence that decision-making is occurring free from the influence of fossil fuel companies." cheekmedia.substack.com/p/dirty-data...

Australia Electricity Emissions Update: Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 514 kg CO2-e/MWh. Down 24% since 2020, down 38% since 2015 Sth Australia leading the way in reductions thanks to its increase in wind & solar generation. Down 27% since 2020, 67% since 2015)

Rare to see Astroturfing just hanging out in the open like this: From the donations disclosures published today, for the period leading up to the 2025 Federal Election: transparency.aec.gov.au/AnnualDonor/...

In August 2021, I started running weekly simulations of Australia's main electricity grid to show that it's possible to get very close to 100% renewable supply with just enough storage to supply average demand for 5 hours. Here are learnings from 4 years of simulations: /1

.. what a difference 17 years makes. Previous peak day in Victoria - (29 Jan 2009) - virtually no wind and solar. 🔌💡

One really interesting (well to me at least) bit was the sensitivity analysis around the proportion of wind and solar. Basically, you want about half wind & half solar. You can vary about 10% either way without much impact to system costs, but when wind drops below 40% you run into problems..

A great piece from @davidosmond.bsky.social via @reneweconomy.com.au on how his simple model shows that VRE + Hydro + Storage can meet over 95% of grid demand in Australia. This aligns to the even more detailed AEMO ISP.. Now let's build! 🔌💡 reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...

South Australia, this is getting crazy. www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...

With respect to the *early* Jan heat in SE Australia (shorter heatwave than now) * climate change made the event about 1.6°C hotter * 5 times more likely to occur now than in preindustrial climate * Return period of every 5 years in current climate www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...

Love this chart from AEMO's latest QED. Look at the growth of wind, solar and battery discharge across all hours of the day! And the corresponding dramatic reduction in coal & gas supply.

China added 315GW of solar and 119GW of wind power capacity to the grid in 2025. And a staggering ~93GW of coal&gas-fired power capacity. Wind capacity additions grew 50%, solar 14%, making new records, and coal&gas 75% year-on-year.

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 231 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

Record breaking electricity demand in both Victoria and Sth Australia yesterday. Wind & solar performed very well, reducing residual demand by 28% & 58% respectively. 4th highest ever demand on the NEM as a whole, with wind & solar reducing residual demand by 30% Here's stats from post 2023 data

Sth Australia electricity demand just hit a record high of 3959 MW. That's 2.26x average annual demand of 1750 MW Wind & solar were providing 84% of demand at the time. The following table shows the 10 previous highest demand intervals. W+S consistently reducing peak residual demand.

The good law, gun reform, was passed with the Coalition voting against it and Greens for it. The bad law, racial vilification, was passed with the Coalition voting for it (some Nats excepted) and Greens against it. Neat encapsulation of the social utility of each party.

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100% RE Last 230 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

Worth noting, without making too much of it, that the non-linear global temperature trend there is tracking through the IPCC published middle projections for its highest emissions pathway, SSP5-8.5, even though actual atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are tracking nearer the lower SSP2-4.5.

Jan 7, 8 & 9 were ranked #1, #4 and #2 on the all time highest NEM demand intervals, including demand met by rooftop PV. Dec 18 & 19 2025 were also #6 & #9. That my simulation was 100% renewable during this period shows how renewables outperform on days of extreme demand

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100% RE Last 229 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

The last 3 days (Jan 7-9) have all had extreme electricity demand on Australia's NEM. When you include demand met by rooftop solar, they rank as #1, #4 & #2 all-time respectively. Thankfully wind & solar generation were excellent, as they typically are on extreme demand days. /1

Australia's main electricity grid, the NEM, had record breaking demand the last couple days, 1st & 3rd highest in history including demand met by rooftop PV. Wind & particularly PV has performed very well during this period, following a long tradition of reducing peak demand. /1

I'd just noticed the same while doing my weekly simulation. Looks like it broke the 39.36GW record set on Dec 16 last year. Wind and solar have performed very well on the 4 highest native demand NEM events. Not surprising for solar, but perhaps more surprising for wind. bsky.app/profile/davi...

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100% RE Last 228 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

Grass roots. My @smh cartoon.

Australia Electricity Emissions Update: Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 519 kg CO2-e/MWh (down 24% since 2020, down 37% since 2015) Sth Australia leading the way in reductions thanks to its increase in wind & solar generation. Down 26% since 2020, 66% since 2015.

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100% RE Last 227 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

You need to read this story.

The NEM has only had 3 occasions where native demand exceeded 37.8 GW. Last week on Dec 18, and last year on Feb 22 & Dec 16. The simulation was 100% renewable on all these days, thanks to good wind & excellent solar. A mostly renewable NEM copes well with extreme demand.

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 226 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

Australia's main electricity grid, the NEM, will soon have 40GW/113GWh of storage (not including Snowy2.0). That's enough storage to power the grid for about 4.5hrs at average demand of ~25GW /1

Extreme native NEM demand on Thu & Fri last week, hitting 38.0 GW on Thu Dec 18 at 3:25pm NEM time & 37.6 GW 1:25pm on Fri. Av. native demand in 2025 is 24.9 GW. Rooftop PV once again demonstrating that it dramatically reduces peak grid demand, peaking at 32.7 GW at 6pm on Dec 18. /1

Here's @ronnisalt. "Don't look back in anger" theshot.net.au/uncategorize...

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100% RE Last 225 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

In 1991 Mt Pinatubo spewed out 50 MILLION TONNES OF CO₂!! That's a ridiculously MASSIVE amount!

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 224 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

Changes from AEMO's 2024 ISP to today's Draft 2026 ISP: - A large extension in black coal operations - A large reduction in flexible gas capacity - An increase in utility solar at the expense of wind - a large increase in utility storage, at the expense of coordinated CER storage

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100% RE Last 223 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

November was the first month that utility batteries discharged more energy than peaking (OCGT) gas on Australia's NEM. According to the 2024 ISP, it will only be a few years before batteries are the primary firmer of renewables, exceeding the output of all gas and hydro.