with increased sorting, it is nothing but *rational* for people to have affective issues with the outparty. the obsession with ending friendships is so bizarre at this point. people of course will have some issues if you deny their identity or constrain their choices.

bluesky branding refresh unveiled

This is the first time I catch myself thinking about how the aspect ratio of plots changes our perception of what's going on.

In light of recent events, it seems like a good time to reup this. “The way out isn't about left versus right; it's about clean versus corrupt, reform versus a rigged system, the people versus oligarchs.”

“Where are the Sliwa strongholds?” I hear you ask. No I swear I hear you asking

it seems that the power of thermostatic opinion compelled people yesterday and will compel them in the midterms, too. but there will be no Vibe Shift Toward Blue analyses from Very Serious People this time. it's not as juicy as Vibe Shift Toward Red.

since everyone is thinking about returns to ideological moderation and the Vibe, I just came up with a toy theoretical exercise to think about how we may bring ideology and Good Vibes together. I'm vehemently in favor of someone building A Theory of Political Vibe: tkeskinturk.github.io/blog/vibes

A very clever way to test for pollster herding .... doesn't really find any

The New York Post is giving these vibes.

my hot take is that collaboration among "disciplines" is often not really meaningful, as opposed to collaborating on specific "problems," many of which (e.g., networks and cognitive sciences) are much more successful due to their commitment to a shared orientation to scholarship.

Jake, what is happening on twitter dot com?? I could have sworn the #numbers guys used to have a little more heft…

Yes. Sadly “we can’t solve this” is never going to sell

The American Sociological Association changing its name from the American Sociological Society has deprived me of saying things like "are you going to the Ass?" or the "Ass is in NYC this year" or "the Ass is too big I prefer smaller conferences" or "the Ass sucks"

in this paper, I introduce the concept of *Concept Capital* to explain how the unequal distribution of new concepts leads to status hierarchies among sociologists.

the vibes will turn and our times for bashing DAGs will come soon.

"an ideology must create a drama."

AOC has just officially become the top House fundraiser, beating out Hakeem Jeffries. Now lemme take a big sip of coffee as I look at the age distribution of donors to AOC vs Jeffries

sorry, not sorry:

this is a great take:

demographer, ethnographer, and the Guy Obsessed with Networks.

4% of Americans say "yes" to "have you ever been decapitated?"

Found in my parents' basement. #dataviz from the 1932 Olympics

I believe that the experimental paradigm in "polarization research" should receive strong criticism for its thin conception of political culture. I make this argument in a new blog post. Experiments Can’t Reduce Partisan Animosity tkeskinturk.github.io/blog/experiments

people's opinions are formed through a combination of long-lasting exposures and political socialization, and we should not expect one-shot experimental settings to *scale* in the first place. this is such a needed correction to the "polarization" literature:

RIP Robert Redford, a Hollywood icon and GIF legend.

cultural evolution folks pretty much moved past "the Question on California & Paris," but it is still a valuable lens to think about sociology's core problems. here are some of my reflections on transmission & directionality. Thinking About California and Paris tkeskinturk.github.io/blog/attactors

Andrei Tarkovsky's Tropic Thunder.

casual causal language

a take: it should be perfectly acceptable for an author to use causal language when doing an observational research even if they simply condition on the observables. writing weasel words as lip-service is only making things worse and harming the entire conversation.

the idea of being on "the left" or "the right" has clear implications for many of us, particularly for predicting what people think about economic or cultural issues. but does this "alignment" show up across many countries? not really. a new blog post here: tkeskinturk.github.io/blog/leftright

Blueskyism, or, the cultural logic of late capitalism

a new working paper: osf.io/vsr5b I propose a three-stage model of cohortization where dynamics of cohort learning and political sorting serve as complementary engines of aggregate political change. I apply this to the case of the killing of George Floyd & the BLM. it's also my job market paper!

good research statement I think

What a fragedy

not much of a sequence anymore; it's tragedy & farce at the same time:

there is in fact a pipeline issue in positivism: those deemed "positivists" by the intelligentsia are often poorly-read number crunchers while true positivists---by definition, deeply embedded in the humanities---are less likely to take such roles, creating a false image of political sorting.

one awkward piece of language in sociology papers is the frequent "I use such and such theory to understand such and such social outcome," which often reminds me of what Barry Barnes says here:

pretty much agreed with the spirit of this, which simply argues against short-term optimizing of politics based on polling. the truth is just-so stories on tabulated data is the modus operandi of popularist research, and a slightly false-guided humanistic correction of polling may work much better.

Whoops, I wrote an essay that introduces a new concept 🫣

Climate models since the 1970s nailed it—most predicted global warming almost exactly as it happened.

possibly one of the most exciting theory papers in recent times, and just perfect that it's out there in the best sociology journal (imho). from @acastroaraujo.bsky.social & @nicolasrestrepo.bsky.social:

a new working (i.e., for now, an idle) paper. I ask whether "dynamic constraint" may emerge when both credible information & cross-issue cues target political beliefs--lowering the cost of consistency-seeking memory search. I field an experiment and find that the answer is no: osf.io/yh2fm