Because child gender is ~ random, we can estimate the causal impact of being a "boy mom" vs "girl mom" by conditioning on # of kids. Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic. Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.

This from @davidshor.bsky.social made me LOL. "having wealthy people or economists be mad at you is a feature, not a bug" .... anyway, it's a very interesting conversation I recommend it.

Really excited I got to talk to @bharatramamurti.bsky.social about what the polling says about AI, people’s intuitions of fairness in a hypothetical post scarcity world, and most controversially what I think about PRICE CONTROLS Check it out! bharatramamurti.substack.com/p/a-conversa...

Young voters are now 3x as likely to report having been estranged from their parents for an extended period of time than voters over the age of 65. Parental estrangement is uncorrelated with partisanship and is concentrated among low-turnout independents.

Amazon/Microsoft/Google/Apple all have very high net favs, Nvidia is unknown, Tesla is unpopular, Meta is somewhere in between "Big tech companies" in general underperform the average of specific tech companies and are narrowly underwater - but still much more popular than both political parties

The issue landscape has changed dramatically over the last year - Democrats successfully have simultaneously raised the salience and expanded our trust advantage on our best issue (healthcare) *and* dramatically improved our trust advantage on the cost of living and the economy

David Shor: "[Zohran Mamdani] ran the most economically focused campaign of any politician that I can remember maybe since Barack Obama in 2012." #crookedcon2025

Zohran's relentless disciplined campaign was truly impressive - he brought every message/issue back to the cost of living and built a model for what bringing attention to a positive affordability message can look like Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE! x.com/alimortell/s...

Video of this year's Harvard Hutchins Center forum: What went wrong? What's next? Thoughtful and provocative conversation. Jonathan Capehart, Astead Herndon, Sherrilyn Ifill, David Shor, Laurence Tribe, Charlene Hunter-Gault www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld4k...

Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

The mayor race on Tuesday saw massive turnout differentials - turnout in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social’sbstrongest precincts was up ~30% while turnout in Cuomo’s best districts were ~ flat. These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.

Traditionally there's been a quant/qual split on ad length in Democratic politics, with [usually more moderate] quants pushing for shorter 15 second ads and [usually more progressive] qual folks pushing for 60 second ads. Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!

Zohran raised a lot less money than you'd expect given his vote share and educated coalition - he barely outraised Lander! His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!

@zohrankmamdani.bsky.social is a great example of how far you can go if you genuinely center your campaign in an engaging way around the issue that voters overwhelmingly say in surveys they care the most about www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...

Excited to signal boost @shiraamitchell.bsky.social and @ccgilroy.bsky.social 's response to the @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social and Caroline Soler's critiques of our estimates of Harris support among non-voters and youth voters. Our main points:

Really great to see @rokhanna.bsky.social stand up for tracking - removing advanced classes from schools is literally the single most unpopular policy we've ever polled

If you're in the Bay Area tomorrow and want to learn more about ways to apply AI skills toward progressive change and fighting Trump, come check us out on Tuesday May 13th! lu.ma/dugt12v6

Conservatives are gaining most among immigrants and visible minorities this election. However, this could also be a sign of the ecological fallacy. @sharonk.bsky.social shared this piece on the subject schoolofcities.github.io/gta-immigrat...

Also we’re hiring for an AI-focused machine learning engineer role at Blue Rose! This is a great chance to be at the forefront of using cutting edge machine learning techniques to resist Donald Trump! t.co/dwE3D3mJ4F

This, from David Shor, is what I've been saying for a while. A lot of post-election punditry has decided trans issues are a "luxury belief" but also the obsessive hatred of us across the right-wing is somehow not. It's a rich man's game, society's wealthiest scapegoating the wrong 1%

Excited to join @ezraklein to talk through what happened in 2024. There's a turnout story this cycle, but not the one we're used to talking about. With less-engaged and less-likely voters becoming more Republican, a larger turnout meant a more GOP electorate.

Come work with us!

I also struggle to find a lot of solace in the fact that Dems are going to romp in 2026, but all the evidence is that they're going to. I'm stealing this from @davidshor.bsky.social on Twitter but current generic ballot polling suggests Dems will win 2 party vote by 8 points 18 months from now.

The defining psychometric characteristics of leftist anti-Dems after you control for demographics/ideology are pretty anchored around wanting to rebel against authority and be different than the mainstream. They can’t really help it, it’s who they are on a very fundamental level

Come work with us!

People who most strongly disagree with “I keep my promises” are ~7x likelier to support Luigi than those who strongly agree

Looking at the Berlin election map, the transformation of Die Linke's results from 2009 to 2025 is clear: not just the evolution from East-German party to East/West coalition, but the inner/outer Berlin switch too. (Maps from interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/bundesta...)

The share of Republican men and women who believe "women should return to their traditional gender roles" has increased by ~1.5X since 2022, with the position now achieving plurality status among GOP men. t.co/bjOaDde6Y0

Explicit antisemitic attitudes are now much more common among young voters - 18 year old registered voters are now ~5x more likely to say that they have an unfavorable view of the Jewish people than 65 year olds.

Zoomers care more about making money than any generation in at least 50 years

In Norway the gender gap in support for left wing parties among high-school aged teenagers *doubled in size* during covid, with the increase being mostly driven by a dramatic increase in the share of teenage boys who believe "gender equality has gone too far"

Yeah - this is the classic example I give for 1) “Racial resentment” does actually measure what it says it does contrary to what anti-woke people say 2) whatever drive Trump was probably “upstream in the DAG” from RR - easier to see now that working class non-whites have swung so R ofc

Really great write-up here on what the DNC actually spends it's money on. cauldronllc.substack.com/p/what-did-t...

This is the party reg breakdown among white 18 year old men on the TS voter file and our raw polling by party registration among vf-validated 18 year old white male 2024 voters. Multiply this out and you get ~29% for folks in party reg states.

The extent to which young voters cared about climate change has been overstated. Even among Dem leaning young voters, climate change was tied with housing for the top 10% of political participation, housing dominated for bottom 90%. Inflation was even more dominant. youtu.be/bLcP5juxmdA?...

The whole deal this cycle was that people who don’t care about politics became a lot more Republican. This generally means that Democrats would have done worse if turnout was higher.

From a more theoretical perspective I think TikTok and the broader advances in recommendation systems that allow networks to de-deemphasize follower graphs is breaking the cartel that writers have had on discourse for centuries. I’m not super optimistic about how that will shake out.

Consuming political content on TikTok is associated with being more Trump-y, more pro-Russia, and more antisemitic even after quite strong demographic/attitudinal controls. From a content perspective R videos get more views than D and also R content is also more effective on per impression basis.

Increase in the gender gap since 2020: Overall - 0.4% Among non-white voters - 0.9% Among 18-20 year olds - like 11%!

This is what I think is going on in terms of two way 2024 house vote. It's funny because the "We're doing poorly with young men" situation is so much worse than people realize in terms of magnitude and expected long term harm that it is still underrated despite how much people talk about it.

Good surprises since 2020: Old people became way more Democratic EC bias declined R's have nominated terrible candidates Bad surprises: Zoomers are really right wing now Tech moving right Non-white support cratered faster than I thought it would TikTok has been really bad

Democrats did best relative to 2020 in pro-life counties and lost the most ground in pro-choice counties. Generally you see similar patterns in individual survey data too - Trump improved the most relative to 2020 among pro-choice voters.

The immigrant piece of this is really important. Taking the ecological regression literally, voters born outside the US swung 23% pp against dems in 24 (compared to -0.9% for native born), 14% more than you'd expect from race and education, making up more than half of the net votes lost since 2020.

Due to Trump's strong gains in hispanic, asian, and immigrant neighborhoods of all races, the partisan bias of the electoral college disappeared this year. The house and senate still have meaningful pro-Republican bias, but senate bias has almost halved from four years ago.

While we can't be fully confident that ecological trends observed by analyzing geographic data extend to individual voting patterns - Democrats did better relative to 2020 in older parts of the country and worse in younger parts of the country, mirroring Nate Cohn's polling

Seems like the concerns by German industry that the energy shock would badly disrupt the economy have basically born out

First Bluesky graph!

Does anyone have the link to the bluesky cluster graph?