Really good and really really interesting. To a large extent, it goes against my expectations, and yet it does cover it's bases well enough that I may have to accept that maybe norms are a bigger part of the far right story than what I initially thought.

Radical right accommodation really does not work. New paper out with this exceptionally talented team @katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk doi.org/10.31235/osf...

Ada: Somehow I always hurt only my most sensitive body parts! Me: Okay kid, it’s time we have The Talk—

Et voila! Case proven. #solar

I’m very excited to share that my paper “Cleavage theory meets civil society: A framework and research agenda” with @eborbath.bsky.social & Swen Hutter has now been published online in ‪@wepsocial.bsky.social‬ (w/ open access funding thanks to @wzb.bsky.social‬!) www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

I do not remember who I read saying that humans only understand three probabilities: 0%, 50% and 100%. This statement (I don't know how well founded) is consistent with the anecdotal evidence I have encountered ever since. I believe it also applies to fractions and continous distributions. 🧵1/2

It's quite funny that fairly early in its history philosophy invented writing well (Plato) and reasoning well (Aristotle) and made it clear you can only do one; subsequently clarifying that we'll typically do neither.

"Overall, our findings suggest a “ratchet-effect” heuristic: left parties may still push back against rising disparities but have given up on lowering existing levels of inequality. To us, the findings imply lock-in effects [...]"

Federal court refuses to block Alabama’s “divisive concepts” law, says university faculty classroom speech is government speech with no First Amendment protection. This dangerous development allows lawmakers to dictate what professors say in class. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

From a game I just played (and painfully lost). White's three past pawns and the litle mobility of black's pices look like sufficient compensation for the light squared bishop, but there are still lot of complications ahead. What would you move next and how would you approach the game?

The @epssnet.bsky.social call for the 2026 conference in Belfast opened today! 😮 epssnet.org/belfast-2026... Deadline: 7 November 2025

The old party is dying. The new party struggles to be born. Now is the time of Schumers.

Even in times of sociocultural conflict, a progressive left electorate is more averse to sociocultural *and* socioeconomic inequalities than (far) right voters. New paper with @siljahausermann.bsky.social Palmtag @tabouchadi.bsky.social @stefwalter.bsky.social Berkinshaw tinyurl.com/d42wyb79 1/n

a good diff in diff without a formal theory model delivers a casual causal estimate

Marcel Duchamp, born July 28, 1887, loved chess as much as he loved art. My favorite thing about this photo (by Mark Kauffman for Life magazine) is that Duchamp has a modernist chess set for show, but you can see over his shoulder that he has a Staunton set for business.

If this is true (I don't think we fully know if the EU public feels humiliated by this deal - also partly because we just don't know much about it! - but happy to entertain): let's then remind the public that they voted for people that wanted the European leaders to get to that.

Tom Lehrer would have been intensely amused that he outlived the author of his NYT obituary.

This is very interesting, and intuitively (and retrospectively) quite reasonable. I mean, it people who reject democratic partisan conflict, and thus democracy, may view themselves as centrist (legend has it that Franco used to tell his cabinet "Do like me, do not get into politics").

Diffuse support for democracy has usually been understood as a stable attitude, key for democracy to work. Now, @irenejbravo.bsky.social‬ and I observe a notable shift among Spanish youth. Here, we post the main findings a recent article that can be read here: doi.org/10.3389/fpos...

I take this opportunity today to make my debut in Bluesky by sharing my latest article with @tonirodon.bsky.social and Maria on a very special day. A few months ago we published "Where has everyone gone? Depopulation and voting behaviour" in EJPR. ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Very interesting looking article that seems to support my long-lasting theory that vulnerability (in this case, vulnerability to big biz competition) is actually a double-edged sword in politics www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

I was on this completely lost position (pictured left), kept playing out of spite and a few moves later stumbled upone this mate in four position (pictured right) and I think that winning this way made me happier that if I had just won a normal and well deserved victory.

Also, the obsession with "ah, but you can ask the LLM to summarise the article for you" continues to baffle me. We already had article summaries thanks to an efficient and well tested technology called 'abstracts'. 🧵1/2

It is very hard to see how the UK government can sign this statement, which makes it absolutely clear that it recognises that Israel is committing - as a matter of state policy - deliberate and systematic war crimes, without at a minimum cutting all military cooperation with Israel.

Intergenerational occupational mobility influences far-right support across both countries and time but only downward mobility matters in a correctly estimated model. Happy to see this work with @alanjacobs.bsky.social appearing in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

I was interviewed by the @washingtonpost.com on who applies vs. gets selected to become member of the Chinese Communist Party, and on the reasons for young social elites not to join the party.

Just found myself here. White (me) to move. Whats the best and only none losing move and how certain are you that you would have played during a game?

Back home. Tired but very happy with this first time experience. So many people doing so many interesting things in european political science, what else could one ask for?

A little bit nervous with the prospect of presenting my work, but looking at the program for EPSA next week in Madrid i see so many nice people to meet again and so many interesting presentations to hear that I really look foward to it.

I have been staying away from purely political posts but the attack on Wikipedia is more than I can bear. Wikipedia is the most valuable intellectual resource of the internet era. The MAGA crowd is not just against science, it is against knowledge.

🧵new preprint: I ran a survey experiment in the UK to test whether people are racially biased in their immigration preferences—especially when it comes to skills.👇

I am having problems accessing the Minorities at Risk Dataset, does anybody know if something happend to the project?

I ask as someone completely outside the field, how is realisism in IR and more in general methodological nationalism coping with the fact that something as domestic as the 2024 election leads to a 180 degree turn in US foreign policy?

Well, one thing may be that the role of commanding self-appointed warrior protector provider relies on others naturally accepting your command and your self-appointed position. When others do not play along, the difference between the Stoic warrior and the petulant whinner becomes blurry.

AfD overwhelmingly won votes from non-voters and the centre-right. This is a standard pattern. It is a myth that the radical right are mainly winning disaffected centre-left voters.

As in other countries, the far right with strong gains among the young. The idea that far right support is largely driven by authoritarian older voters against the progressive younger ones is being refuted in every election at the moment.

Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.

My book on party families in Western Europe has been out for a year now so why not do an anniversary thread? 🧵 #polisky www.routledge.com/Party-Famili...

🎄🌟 Exciting news! 📊🎉 The AUTNES Online Panel Study 2017–2024 is here! 🎁🤩 Explore 23 survey waves to uncover the dynamics of voting behavior and public opinion in Austria. 🗳️🇦🇹 Access the data via #AUSSDA ➡️ doi.org/10.11587/HNU... #AUTNES #ElectionStudies #Polisky #DataRelease #WeLoveData ❤️

My paper (w/ @turnbulldugarte.com) is now out on: ❓How do people derive social class of representatives and the public? The headline is that working-class parliamentarians are less likely to be perceived as such (compared to otherwise identical lay public) www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

If you are around Madrid, take a look at Desperate Literature. Grate bookshop for foregin literature in the original language, and currently hoping to survive a wave of touristification. Certainly one of my favorite places in the city center. desperateliterature.com/help-save-de...

My fantastic co-author Julian Voss has meticulously compiled municipality-level election results for Post-WW2 Western German elections (1949-1969) from historical records. What a great resource! Read the paper, use the data: osf.io/preprints/os...

Hi alll, Jakob and I digitized parish-vote data from the 1920 referendum on the Danish-German border. We have made the data available for everyone to use here: hhsievertsen.github.io/Data-on-the-... #data #econsky 1/3

And, that if we’re writing about this, there is already a wealth of literature on gender gaps (it’s lovely to see everyone so interested but slightly frustrating to see it treated as a new phenomena when so much good research is out there).

It's a good thing the field of political science largely cares about causal inference

And the few elections that I know that are scheduled for 2025 (Canada, Chile, Germany) are likely to follow suit. Does any one know about an incoming election that looks like it may reverse the trend?

For the first time in history, each governing party in developed countries with elections saw a decline in vote share. Inflation is a big factor, but I wonder if the rise of negativity as the go-to attention-grabber in today's social media ecosystem might also play a role.

I took a not very deep look at the Spanish data some time ago, and it does look like the gender gap suddenly appears in 2019, which does coincide with the electoral emergence of the far right. I wonder whether there are such abrupt changes in other countries.