The biggest M&A deal ever. A crypto bailout. Just some of the things Breakingviews columnists predict for 2026 in a new e-book, ‘Far Side of the Boom’. Access the book 👉 reut.rs/3YDKKwu Or read articles online 👉 reut.rs/45puKSz

I understand why they didn't say pre-budget: "The main reason we need to raise tax is to build headroom against the fiscal rules - we want to put the markets to bed and move on." As that sounds like an arbitrary use of people's taxes - plugging a conceptual gap.

This OBR/Treasury row on who said what, when... is very muddy and complicated. A few points: • idea that the OBR said on Oct 31 Reeves was already meeting her target by £4b isn't really the full picture - fcast excluded the welfare u-turns since March (some media have pointed that out, others not)

For several years I've written a weekly note to the @breakingviews.reuters.com team, picking out key insights and ideas. Some colleagues urged me to share these musings more widely. So behold The Week in Breakingviews, free in your inbox each Saturday. Sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...

So @dsquareddigest.bsky.social is a former banks analyst who has written books on fraud and on systemic failures. That makes him the ideal person to come on The Big View and talk about stablecoins. Listen here: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

VDL ruled out revisiting the EU’s “untouchable” regulations on digital content and market power, which Trump officials see as taxes on Big Tech firms, and Europe's VAT rules “These are not in the packages of negotiation because these are our sovereign decisions” Full interview: on.ft.com/43Qg7Ic

In an interview w @roulak.bsky.social, @andybounds.bsky.social & I, @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu said the EU wants a “completely balanced” deal. “[But] we are developing retaliatory measures” she said. “There’s a wide range of countermeasures . . . in case the negotiations are not satisfactory”

💥 EU could levy new taxes on Big Tech companies' digital advertising revenues if negotiations with Trump over trade tariffs fail, Ursula von der Leyen tells @financialtimes.com “It’s a turning point with the United States without any question... We will never go back" on.ft.com/429u02T

The Trump administration "is effectively demanding an overnight overhaul of an immensely expensive and complicated supply chain, threatening pure destruction." www.reuters.com/breakingview...

Via @gusbaratta.bsky.social

Me whenever people talk about "too low" UK interest rates and QE in the 2010s

Deep dive with @breakingviews.reuters.com colleague Afiq Fitri Alias, looking at whether Trump’s review should find in favour of consciously uncoupling the US from the World Bank. Short answer: no. Long answer ⬇️

Great to hear @bbcradio4.bsky.social Today programme follow up on our @theguardian.com investigation into the TV crisis this morning. Broadcasters, big production companies - speak to me about it! [email protected]

There’s a real possibility that Trump doesn’t impose any permanent tariffs but trade still collapses because all the importers assume that he has.

Come for the crunchy financial analysis of Aberdeen’s latest rebrand/strategy, by Neil Unmack… www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...

A triptych of stellar pieces by the redoubtable EMEA team at @breakingviews.reuters.com this week. First @liamproud.bsky.social on Patrick Drahi's unusual debt restructuring, then Neil Unmack on the return Thames Water investors can expect, and finally @jen-johnson.bsky.social on a WPP buyout.

A modest proposal from @georgehay.bsky.social: that the UK relax visa requirements for medical, scientific and technology researchers whose work has been disrupted by the Trump administration. Call it the “non-Don” regime. www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...

Exclusive: Zelenskiy says 'Let's do a deal', offering Trump mineral partnership, seeking security - www.reuters.com/world/zelens...

From me - on the limits of Jevons Paradox: www.breakingviews.com/features/ai-...

In no particular order, some thoughts on the fiscal stuff: 1) Lots of the coverage about rising yields has been a bit excitable. It's bad, but not a crisis. It's largely down to global factors. There's lots of moving parts and Rachel Reeves might yet meet her fiscal rules without changing a thing.

This is pure gold, Greek edition. How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps. Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn€ in RWA. But how? Deleveraging? Oh no, that would be hard work. I’ve got a better idea. Thread.

You can easily see the most stressed areas in the map. And note that values of real estate exposed to climate risk has started to fall.

Probably the biggest disconnect in markets: -houses are the most valuable asset for most Americans -the US system is built upon the 30yr mortgage -you can't get a mortgage without insurance - insurance will be vastly more costly or unavailable in many areas in the future.

It's well-known that mature tech firms (Stripe, SpaceX etc.) have been delaying going public. But a boom in off-market share sales raises an intriguing new possibility: the perpetually private startup. www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...

Here is 11 hours of almost unbroken tweeting by Elon Musk, starting at midnight GMT/7pm EST on Monday. How is he getting anything else done?

London’s lethargy aids Boaz Weinstein’s new tilt - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...

Big Booze speeds towards low-growth tobacco status - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...

Are alcohol companies the new tobacco companies? Almost, according to their valuations

Fascinating Reuters deep dive here by @paulcarsten.bsky.social and @pkddapacific.bsky.social

While Iran's oil-smuggling methods have been well-guarded, a trove of emails leaked last year exposed unusually granular detail about the day-to-day workings of one company — Sahara Thunder reut.rs/3W7SqGl 1/7

Why an OpenAI IPO could create the next hot meme stock? My take for the Predictions 2025 👇 It could be a stupid thought, so read and let me know ;)

What better way to kickstart this account than with the @breakingviews.reuters.com annual Predictions for the year ahead. Take a look and let us know if you think our crystal-ball gazers will be right or wrong... www.breakingviews.com/predictions/

You can explore all our predictions for 2025 here: www.breakingviews.com/predictions/ or download the e-book here: www.breakingviews.com/predictions-...

The past five years have shown us the perils of making predictions. Looking ahead to 2025 is arguably even harder. Undaunted, the @breakingviews.reuters.com team have yet again nailed their colours to the mast. www.breakingviews.com/features/ris...

NEW: After Elon Musk’s meeting with Nigel Farage emerged, senior Labour figures gathered to discuss it. Before long, there was increasing agreement that a rush to change donation laws was not the answer… Story: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Bank of England's survey of businesses says "many" firms are considering reducing headcount, hours and wages in response to the Budget. But hard to know what it means as this claim isn't quantified, whether in terms of ubiquity or likelihood.

One stat in this story really illustrates solar's acceleration - this project is installing 10,000 panels per day.

"Masayoshi Son’s new $100 billion investment target for the United States sums up the Japanese tycoon: it’s attention-grabbing, probably exaggerated, and almost certainly a poor use of his shareholders’ money" @karenkkwok.bsky.social

The FSB (not that one) reckons national regulators should consider leverage caps for hedge funds. @liamproud.bsky.social mulls the details: www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...

How the population of London has changed over the last decade. Fascinating chart from @jim.londoncentric.media. www.londoncentric.media/p/london-tra...

Iran's Revolutionary Guards control half of Tehran's oil exports, @jonathansaul.bsky.social and @phreuters.bsky.social report - up from 20% three years ago www.reuters.com/world/middle...

“Hours before he escaped for Moscow, Assad assured a meeting of about 30 army and security chiefs at the defence ministry on Saturday that Russian military support was on its way and urged ground forces to hold out.“ Great reporting here. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

One of the greatest ever movie reviews

The Land Registry putting up fees for finding out the true owner of a property by 133% is a proper financial hit if you're running a small investigative news outlet! (Related: I've always thought if you wanted to start a revolution in the UK, make the Land Registry free and searchable on Google.)

🔊 France is without a prime minister after Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote. In this Viewsroom podcast, @breakingviews.reuters.com columnists explain why a long crisis would deter foreign investors and damage France’s growth reut.rs/41AK7Xr

Two Syrian sources tell @reuters.com there’s a “very high probability” that Assad’s plane has crashed. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

US equities are 67% of the global index and given the circumstances some seriously big pension funds don’t want to get any more exposed - but that means they face further shade for underperforming the S&P 500 🤦🏻‍♂️. More here, by @petertl.bsky.social www.breakingviews.com/features/us-...

Between Romania annulling its election because of an influence campaign on Tik Tok, and the US appeals court upholding a forced sale of the same platform, seems like a milestone for social media. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Where are peeved UK non-doms off to? Dubai, it seems www.reuters.com/breakingview...

The Telegraph wants a new owner but is struggling to get one. And broadcaster ITV isn’t courting a deal, but probably should. Here's my column on the M&A obstacles facing both groups: www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...