So the wait is over & the market "happy" (or no too unhappy) abt the Swiss proposal for UBS: - full deduction of subs - DTA/goodwill deduction Will cost approx 25bn$ of addt'l capital requirement BUT Long time frame leaving time for optimization of capital within the group

You've been eagerly waiting for it, holding your breath.... here it, the annual ShitBanksDoIndex Positive trend resuming after the small spike in 2022 (which came from the US)

Nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki has won Poland’s presidential election, according to the country’s electoral commission, after a tight run-off vote against pro-EU rival and Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. (FT)

"UAE-Based Suitors May Bid for UniCredit Russia" (Messagero) "UAE-based"

Caltagirone will soon become the first human to be regulated under the Financial Conglomerate Directive (2002/87/EC)

Slightly weird statement from Intesa CEO *INTESA CEO: IF UNICREDIT BIDS FOR GENERALI I'D TELL ORCEL STOP

I wonder how much the UBS franchise is worth to Netflix? "A UBS Group AG client, who alleges his wealth adviser had an affair with his wife and tried to help her take control of family funds, can sue the broker but not the Swiss firm, a New York judge ruled." (for 10m$)

You can't make this up *Executive at Collapsed Irish Nationwide Gets Four-Year Ban (BN) So far, nothing special But this is for what he did 20 YEARS AGO (2004-2008). He gets a 4-year ban from the financial industry for making a bank bust in 2010 CBI investigated 15 years !

Insideparadeplatz isn't always correct - so careful - but they just make 2 big claims which directly contradict Julius Baer mgt: - it was a whisteblower who told Finma about the pbms in risk controls - the 130m loss is on just ONE client (management said the opposite on IR call)

A nice read to start your day: Bloomberg's "The Trump Family’s Money-Making Machine" detailing every single deal the Trump family has landed since starting the 2024 Presidential campaign. Which one is your favourite? I have a sweet spot for the Trump Digital Trading Cards

I'm reading the words "debt sustainability" in sell side resarch way too often these days - & no it's not only about the US.

Exports to US broken down by "executive orders buckets"

European bank M&A isn't exactly slowing down KBC GROEP TO BUY 365.bank FOR EUR761M IN CASH

File under the "who would have guessed" folder "Europe on Alert for Cheap Chinese Imports as Trump Tariffs Bite"

Quite the headline we've got here "Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, will not hire more humans for now"

Afaik UBS is the 1st to publish this new template showing benefits of banks internal models & how much the new Basel 4 floor is going to bite. What's fascinating imo is the counterparty credit risk: models are so aggressive that they reduce "risk" by 78%! Archegos anyone?

Summary of the German coalition's economic measures & potential GDP impact, by DB

Germany’s New Government to Use Legacy Bank Levy Funds for SMEs (€2bn) (BN) The key is that the german banking association said it was "appropriate" bc there are lawsuits (including from DB & Unicredit) on the use of those funds after the gvt tried to transfer to Soffin in 2024

China PBOC Asks State Lenders to Cut Dollar Purchases: Reuters (Bloomberg) -- China’s central bank has asked major state-owned banks to reduce US dollar purchases, Reuters reports

One headline for the lovers of doom porn JAAA ETF Daily Outflows $585.2 Million, Most since inception That's the AAA CLO ETF

Bloomberg has some nice charts on the tariffs’ impacts. The first one argues that tariffs on China are coming globally: too many countries will see a spike of imports from China & that's not sustainable.

Remember the name Emily Ley, you might hear it often in the next few weeks (this is a challenge against the Feb & March Chinese EO but I suspect more is coming on the new ones)

Which EU ctry will push to retaliate & which won't? To have a view I looked at banking exposure. The methodology: each country has a tariff intensity based on tariff % * % GDP on US exports, then I looked at SME REA of each bank in each country as proxy for risk. Results below

This is a very intriguing comment from the EBA BSG: are they suggesting that having external staff working on banks' IT systems means that they're selling vulnerability data to hackers ? (Just like burglaries increase when you renovate a house)

Markets are cracking : wild moves in Bund, European banks and X-Over spreads Opportunities ahead of us :-)

*FRANCE'S LE PEN FOUND GUILTY IN CASE OVER MISUSE OF EU FUNDS (suspense on eligibility)

Trump has stolen the spolights, but French politics are still very messy. A lot will happen this week and I think it's very important. But first, two key facts to better understand the stakes. 1/N

EIOPA proposes full deduction of cryptos from (re)insurers's capital, even stablecoins. The rule on stablecoins is currently lookthrough the underlying asset. EU (re)insurers have 650m of crypto

Apollo president says private credit is ‘not a bubble’ (If you have to deny it is....errrrr.) #Timestamp

Turns out bullying works #2 NatWest and Nigel Farage settle ‘debanking’ dispute Agreement brings to an end the politician’s threat of legal action against the lender (FT)

It turns out bullying works EU set to limit Apple and Meta fines to avoid ire of Donald Trump (FT)

In case you haven't been watching, EU redditors are having a Gamestop moment on Eutelsat, the French satellite co

You can always count on financiers to jump on the latest bandwagon 😂 HANetf unveils Europe-focused defence ETF The fund will exclude US defence companies and concentrate on ‘companies benefiting from Europe’s security realignment’ (FT)

Sure, we need to reduce EU reliance on US military equipment, but the starting point isn't great

French and German banks still look absolutely horrible on their net interest margins

My favourite ECB publication is the doc where they look at banks' reporting & say how many banks published wrong numbers because they (ECB) have COREP official reporting & they know the right numbers. For example on the important CET1 ratio 6/105 bks have wrong numbers published

Just what the doctor ordered Taiwan Defense Drills Identify 2027 for Potential China Invasion

BBVA makes an important point about Mexico tariffs: supply chains are so integrated that products cross the border many times. If there is reciprocity, tariffs of 25% could end up bbeing charge 7 or 8 times. Obviously this isn't viable and production will move.

PI France, the Fr public bank, (via a fund) bought a big stake in Veolia. What's the purpose, you may ask? Make money? Absolutely not, this deal will "create sustainable value for the resilience and competitiveness of territories and industries in the face of climate change"

Mediobanca has a fantastic piece of research on car insurance and premium finance in the UK. A quick thread but the basic TLDR is that some customers are getting insanely screwed with APR going from the advertised 17% to a real APR of 34%.... @martinlewis.moneysavingexpert.com

If you're just back from a trip to Mars, you probably think the Tories rule the UK * UK Axes Regulators, Targets Welfare in Economic Growth Drive (BN)

Last week the upper house of the Swiss parliament decided to cap bankers’ pay to 5M CHF. Probably as a sign of goodwill to avoid the same vote from the lower house, UBS's CEO pay was cut.... to 15M CHF. Not sure this will work 😂

Some more extraordinary moves in Italian banking M&A this morning. Quick recap: Banco BPM made an offer on Anima, using the Danish Compromise trick to reduce capital requirements by having BMP Vita as the buyer. Then Unicredit made an offer on BPM. BUT MASSIVE PLOT TWIST 1/2

As expected, things aren't improving in the Californian insurance market: State Farm said that rates are too low, and it cost them 5bn$ in underwriting losses over 9y, so they asked for interim rate hikes... which the Insurance Commissioner rejected this weekend.

It's fun to dunk, but you also have to say it when things turn out well: Banks holding twitter acquisition debt managed to $5.5bn of loans at 97c on the dollar. (It used to "trade" at 60c.) I guess xAI was an unexpected game changer

Important but unusual case for Santander: it is suing the ECB over disagreement on the way Brazilian DTAs are booked for capital ratios. Santander (2023) has 7.9bn DTA in Brazil of which 5.3bn with (previously) favourable treatment (100% vs deduction) so it's a big issue.

Crazy: with the exception of Covid, we're seeing the largest physical delivery of gold on record. JPM only will deliver 4bn$. If you had heist plans, now is the time to step up to your ambitions ! Another weird consequence of Trump tariffs, I guess.

The GFC/Eurozone crisis was so wild. #Nostalgia

Czech National Bank head will ask its board to invest up to 5% (€7bn) of reserves in Bitcoin. Stated rationale is i) make profits ii) Trump’s deregulation and pro-digital asset drive

First company estimate of the financial impact of LA fires (that i'm aware of): Chubb expects $1.5bn cost pre tax. (They have high market share in HNW)