Utter horseshit. It’s an actual neighborhood supermarket. I live two blocks away and I can assure you we don’t want Whole Foods.

Am I a chump if I give to the Osborne campaign? He said he won't caucus with the Dems or Republicans, which means if the chamber is 50D-49R without him, there's no tie to break and Schumer (or ideally someone better) because Maj. Leader. But what will he actually do?

www.dailykos.com/stories/2026... I wrote a thing. It's short, but packs a lot of data. Even shorter: even corrected for turnout, incumbency, and random noise, ever signal since 2024 (polls, specials, off-year generals) point to Dems easily taking the House, probably with a dozen seats to spare.

Context: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

BREAKING: SOUTH CAROLINA SENATE'S SINE DIE RESOLUTION FAILS, STATE WILL NOT MOVE FORWARD WITH REDISTRICTING

I'm old enough to remember when unfounded conspiracy theories about destroying ballots led to an insurrection

I made a plot of elections (toplevel and special) since 2024, turnout, and implied national popular vote, along with a comparison to what Dems need for the House (horizontal line). We got this. Credit to @the-downballot.com and @gelliottmorris.com for special election and current GCB estimates.

This is dead on. If the Democrats retake the House and Senate--or even just the House--it could mark the beginning of the end of a 50-year Republican project. If they can't? The GOP will spend the next 2 years destroying all remaining guardrails. Most important midterms of our lives, no question.

The Roberts Court, the Trump White House, and the national GOP are acting like this is their one big shot. Either they secure the lasting end of US Constitutional democracy, or they’re in very serious trouble from the backlash. And they’ve already gone so far that there’s no other possibility.

Given their track record does anyone think that Mississippi, which has already run its primaries, would be allowed by this corrupt Supreme Court to redistrict and run them again?

I get more or less the same. We’ll see what the SC says to Alabama this week and whether the South Carolina senate takes up the house measure.

the most anti free speech administration in this country’s history

Louisiana is 33% Black and has six congressional districts. Yet in the past 149 years, they've just had 4 Black congressmen. All of whom are still alive. And that's too many for Louisiana's white Republican leaders.

this is the closest I've ever come to actually suggesting a "one neat trick" suggestion for anything, but I'm so serious here. the Virginia Constitution gives the legislature the power to set retirement ages for judges "REGARDLESS OF THE TERM TO WHICH ELECTED OR APPOINTED." make it 54 right now.

It would be hilarious if the VA house and senate went into session tomorrow, lowered the retirement age to 54, appointed a brand new supreme court, and appealed to them all within a single session.

Hard to overstate how important this year's state legislative races in places like WI, MN and PA just got:

I suspect I know the answer, but can anyone definitively tell me whether the proposed alabama redistrict is 6-1 (e.g. the pre-2023 map) or 7-0 (entirely new)?

Virginia has a VRA Sec 2 district (the 3rd CD). Maybe they should hold an emergency legislative session to fix this constitutional defect, per Callais, like other Southern states?

WHEN dems win the House in November, there will be those who claim that since we won our concerns about the erosion of democracy were overblown, and I'm just here to say in advance that that argument is horseshit.

Making reasonable assumptions about what will pass in the south, Dems will need to win the popular vote by about 5 points in order to win the House in the Fall. Probably going to happen, but still that is fucking nuts. I am shaking with anger right now.

Virginia Supreme Court declaring Democratic gerrymandering illegal while Republicans are literally wrapping themselves in Trump flags while disenfranchising black southerners is the most on brand moment for the modern USA.

The VA state legislature voted in two sequential sessions voted for a new map, winning an election in between on which they explicitly ran on this, including huge margins for the governor. They won a referendum -- and it's not allowed to stand? This is absolute fucking horseshit.

So, SCOTUS says Red states can ignore the will of the people and gerrymander their districts 9-0 in favor of MAGA But VA Supreme Court says Blue states cannot put the vote to the will of the people and follow through on the people's will to redistrict. Beyond Absurd. 2/2

Roughly speaking every additional seat requires the Dems to win by ~1/3% nationally more than they already had to. 6 stolen seats is roughly 2% more -- or stealing the votes of more than 2 Million voters in the midterms.

So is the Virginia Supreme Court paid by the hour?

I wrote a piece yesterday at @dailykos.com where I broke down the various scenarios for new maps (and VA SC outcomes) and what Dems would need to do to win in each one: www.dailykos.com/stories/2026...

A lot of people want to make handwaving arguments about how Dems are going to be so dominant that all gerrymanders will be dummymanders. Here's a spreadsheet of all of the data so far. Feel free to mix and match as you see fit: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

I ran the numbers on a few post-Callais scenarios and the short version is that no matter how insistent the republicans are on being soulless, anti-democratic dicks, they are still utterly screwed come November. www.dailykos.com/stories/2026...

Quick reminder that the population of Memphis (610k) is larger than the population of Wyoming (590k) which gets not only a representative but two senators. Racist motivations aside, one goal of maps should be to keep counties/cities intact whenever possible. This is not "required" by Callais.

Southern Republicans are swiftly moving to gerrymander Dems in several Voting Rights Act districts after SCOTUS gutted the VRA. Indiana could join them in 2028 and oust two Dems, and the GOP could try to target another handful of Dems again in a few more states that failed to pass new maps in 2026

About a 20% margin in a district Harris won by 1. apnews.com/article/mich...

Now that it's official, please consider donating to Sherrod Brown to win the senate in OH, and Dr. Amy Acton for governor: www.google.com/aclk?sa=L&pf... actonforgovernor.com

Tonight’s dumb napkin cartoon…

I used to wonder what share of vote could a party or an individual get and still consider their own power legitimate. 49%? 30? 10? I now believe the republicans would think they'd be owed power even if they didn't get a single vote at all.

Reminder that Florida voters passed a Constitutional amendment in 2010 banning gerrymandering with 62% of the vote and the Florida GOP just stole the courts and ignored it. By contrast retaliatory gerrymanders in CA and VA passed with the approval of voters. Yet media portrays them as equivalent.

Trump calls for invalidating (primary) elections to gerrymander new maps for 2026. The Supreme Court for 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 has ruled that replacing illegal maps “too close” to elections is too burdensome on election administration & Republicans get to hold at least 1 election with illegal maps before redrawing

To-do List

If America is so racist, then how come a wealthy white man has been lavishing me with gifts ever since his company started having cases before the Supreme Court, on which I sit? by Clarence Thomas

🚨BREAKING: A new lawsuit is challenging Louisiana’s decision to suspend congressional primaries already underway — arguing the state is illegally nullifying votes and plunging an active election into chaos following the Supreme Court’s gutting of the VRA. www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...

I would genuinely love this.

Down to brass tacks. Assuming NC, OH, CA, UT, TX, VA, FL, MO all have their map changes in November, Dems need to win by 1.7% nationally (comparing to 2024) to win the House. Including variance, incumbency, etc., that goes to 2.4. We've got this.

So let me get this straight. Truly awful court decisions could hand Republicans about 10 seats if everything continues breaking against us. Potentially two in Louisiana, 4 in Florida (their SC will never block their illegal gerrymander) and 4 in VA if their SC doesn’t uphold the redistricting.

Here we go with false equivalence again. Both Florida & Virginia have constitutional amendments banning partisan gerrymandering. But VA voters decided to temporarily adopt new maps. In contrast DeSantis ramming through blatantly illegal gerrymander with no public input. Totally different process

Um, WTF is going on with the VA supreme court? The republican legislatures can defy the will of the voters and enact any old map they like, but when the VA legislature passes a map in two sessions, wins the governorship and wins a referendum, apparently that's controversial?

Dems still have quite a few states and districts they can target, as this thread explains. Importantly, *none* of these opportunities depend on Dems dismantling Black and Latino districts that were protected by the VRA.

The Supreme Court is not legitimate.

FWIW, given the current swing from 2024, there's every reason to believe that something like 5 of the new republican "safe" seats in Florida could be won by the dems, and I'd be very surprised if none of them were.

Also it’s infuriating how there’s a collective, unspoken agreement that we’re going to treat sexual assault as NBD as long as the victim is an adult. Two juries found E. Jean Carroll told the truth. The president is what he is. We don’t have to pretend otherwise. He is a monster.

When the dems win, the first order of business is new leadership.