The Air Force & NOAA hurricane hunters conducted 33 missions into, and around, #Melissa. Additional information appears in the alternate text for the images.

I deeply respect the work that's been invested into exploring our approaches to tracking high-end tropical cyclones, but I can't in good conscience remain silent regarding the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS) and discussion around a so-called category 6. 🧵 [1/5]

Not since 1935 has anyone experienced a storm like Melissa. Melissa's record wouldn't have happened without climate change, which made the hurricane's winds about 10 mph stronger, according to a rapid attribution analysis by Climate Central. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/cata...

WCK is in Jamaica ahead of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa’s landfall. The storm is expected to bring destructive winds, torrential rain & widespread flooding. We’re working with local partners to serve meals as quickly as possible. Read more: wck.org/news/hurricane-melissa #ChefsForJamaica

One factor that supported Melissa reaching this record: an Argo float southeast of Jamaica shows a dramatic decrease in upper-level ocean temperature before (18 Oct) and after (28 Oct) the storm. My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔

A climate justice disaster is underway in Jamaica as Hurricane Melissa moves over the island.

Major Hurricane Melissa makes a historic landfall near New Hope, Jamaica.

1:00pm EDT on Oct 28, 2025: #Melissa has made landfall near New Hope, Jamaica with 185mph wind & pressure of 892mb. For wind, ties for strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane matching Labor Day hurricane in 1935 in Florida Keys & Dorian in 2019 in Bahamas. For pressure, ties for Labor Day hurricane

At 11:15 am EDT, Air Force hurricane hunters posted about returning to Curacao "after encountering heavy turbulence today while entering the eye of Hurricane Melissa". "During the event, the aircraft briefly experienced forces stronger than normal due to turbulence" www.facebook.com/hurricanehun...

A catastrophic, historical event is about to unfold in Jamaica. Hurricane warnings are also in effect for parts of eastern Cuba and parts of the Bahamas which will also experience the impact of #Melissa.

9:05am EDT Monday on #Melissa: Air Force dropsonde has measured a pressure of 893 millibars. (with 13 knots of surface wind this may indicate a pressure of around 892 millibars) If 893mb, it makes it 4th strongest ever recoded in the Atlantic in terms of pressure. If 892mb, it makes it tied for 3rd.

9am EDT Tuesday update from NHC on #Melissa: "An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that Melissa is strengthening with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (290 km/h). Estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data has fallen to 896 mb (26.47 inches)." www.nhc.noaa.gov

Air Force hurricane hunters departed at 6:12am EDT from Curacao for #Melissa.

In regard to high SFMR readings with the current Air Force mission, please see this post from @franklinjamesl.bsky.social. SFMR readings are estimated. Recon does indicate that Melissa is further strengthening and some of the most recent flight level wind data was not available for the 2am advisory.

If current forecasts hold, Melissa will be the most powerful hurricane ever to strike Jamaica. Sustained winds at landfall may top 140 mph, along with localized rains of 40"+ and major storm surge. Here's my latest update with @drjeffmasters.bsky.social: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/meli...

I'm writing code to display wind swath over life of storm using track & wind radii. Want to include exact smoothing NHC uses. "smooth wind field depicted on the graphic is produced by a trigonometric interpolation between the four defined radii" (www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindfie...) Anyone know how?

After investigating the cause of why our site was operating slowly we have found that the result was a Python script that accessed our site from the same IP address over 12 million times in the past week. We have blocked that IP address and the Python module used.

Our site is currently being hit with 30,000 requests per hour hitting the same pages in our recon system, mostly the same recon missions on Erin. It may be a Python script doing it. We're trying to mitigate it & you may be asked to solve a CAPTCHA challenge from Cloudflare before accessing the site.

A large portion of the Atlantic coastline will see the risk for high surf and rip currents this week due to #Erin. 🟥Risk of Rip Currents is High🟥 Life-threatening rip currents are likely. Swimming conditions are unsafe for all levels of swimmers. Stay out of the water. nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...

“With the proposed shuttering of AOML, HRD… forecasters could lose all tools currently available to estimate and forecast hurricane intensity. It’s a seismic blow to the arsenal of tools forecasters rely on…” michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/noaa-propo...

For no particular reason, thinking about some of the major aspects of NHC operations that came out of the NOAA/OAR research labs and the Cooperative Institutes. I've probably missed some key ones, but the first ones that come to mind are...

Just a couple days ago NOAA claimed their "data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve". This budget request puts the lie to that claim.

Vast swaths of NOAA will be gone in 2026 if 2026 NOAA budget is passed. Hurricane research will be significantly reduced, with some parts of NOAA that do it being completely eliminated. Important tools used by the National Hurricane Center will be gone. There will be less hurricane hunter flights.

Imagine ending public release, including to hurricane forecasters, of vital data to see inside storms for fear of data being hacked & released publicly while on its way to being released publicly. That's Trump logic in 2025. If 2026 NOAA budget is passed, there won't be much hurricane research left.

As a result of recklessly removing this important data from the hands of forecasters worldwide, thousands of people will likely die. Among those at risk include the poorest & richest nations, U.S. military personnel & their families, and tens of millions all around Atlantic.

Here is my release of my 2025 hurricane predictions focused on potential impacts to land. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vT0...

Updated 1/12/25: WCK will have free meals available in California for first responders and community members impacted by the Southern California wildfires at the locations listed here: wck.org/ca-meals. Share with anyone in the area in need of support. #ChefsForCalifornia

New Addition to hurricanecity.com/cities.htm here is an example using my home base Delray beach, FL notice the "I" named storm has affected the city more than any other. A foot note "I" is the most popular in database followed by "D" then "E" named storms in Atlantic basin.

Some of this year's Air Force & NOAA reconnaissance that occurred in the Atlantic for the 2024 #hurricane season. 163 missions are displayed. (152 tasked by NHC) A variety of other missions occur throughout the year, including winter missions, training missions, research projects & others.

The 2024 Atlantic #hurricane season ended on Nov. 30th. Unless another storm forms this year, the year will end with 18 named storms. For a summary of the 2024 season, see this NOAA article: www.noaa.gov/news-release... A summary of the year's hurricane hunter recon is included in the video.

I will be live tonight at 8:00 PM ET for my annual end of season broadcast to discuss the landfalling hurricanes that I covered this season. You can watch it on my you tube channel www.youtube.com/user/hurrica...

With tropical storm Sara in the books I have updated the impact map for 2024 with one new addition Honduras

I plan to eventually transfer my website from my old OU host to a separate server, but in the meantime, I wrote a detailed blog post about the challenges of forecasting Tropical Storm Sara and what went wrong: arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/blog/p...

For those of you not familiar with my predictions I pick areas to be impacted by tropical systems. Honduras is currently being impacted by Sara #17 the majority of my top 20 have been impacted by 40+mph winds. hurricanecity.com/predictions....

From National Hurricane Center's 3am CST Sunday discussion on #Sara: Data from Honduras' "government indicate that there has been some reports of around 40 inches of rain. These heavy rains are now spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula." hurricanes.gov

4am EST Thursday: T.D. #Nineteen is now a tropical depression. Up to 30 inches of rain is possible. "This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides".

4pm Wed: National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #Nineteen. Watches issued in parts of Honduras & Nicaragua. Up to 30 inches of rain possible. "rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening & potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides"

After the Caribbean swiftly warmed to a record peak in early October, a largely downward trend commenced, but the region is still well above normal for this time of year. High SSTs are one factor that could support the development of the Caribbean disturbance being monitored by NHC.

Super-ensemble plots are now running live for invest 99L. Confidence is growing in a hurricane which may directly impact Central America. Potential impacts in Florida depend on its track and intensity. More invest 99L model data on my site: arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/produc...

We had a major hurricane in the Caribbean + Gulf of Mexico just days ago. Now we're facing the possibility of another one, and it might affect Florida. Here's the scoop from me and @drjeffmasters.bsky.social. BTW, it's mid-November now. Just saying. yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/11/yet-...

31 hurricane hunter missions in, & around, historic Hurricane #Beryl from June 30th to July 8th, 2024. Beryl became the earliest forming category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin. It also became the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in July with 165 mph winds.