Thing is, either way there is going to likely be some kind of continuation of the grand coalition at this point, just with more parties (probably B from red bloc and C from blue bloc) — this may well have the effect of fragmenting the party system further imo

With more than 3/4 of the vote counted, the projection has now aligned right back up with what the exit poll was saying (at least as far as bloc numbers go) — who'd have thought it was onto something!

And now the two blocs are even!

DR now using a projection based on real results and it's pretty much flipped the numbers around between the blue and red blocs from what was in the exit poll — Social Democrats and Danish People's Party stand out as doing a couple percentage points better than the exit poll too at the moment

Exit poll in Denmark suggests that the Moderates will hold the balance of power with the Red Bloc as the larger of the two blocs — this is what was expected. Red Bloc could get closer to majority if Citizens' Party (H) doesn't get past the 2% threshold. A+V+M govt will certainly not have majority

Most of the public does not like the way in which the England flag has been dragged into polarised debates about identity and race, according to new research published today by British Future, one month out from St George's Day. [Thread]

YouGov looking like they will have had the most accurate numbers. Roy Morgan's methodology of using SMS polls has found the highest One Nation vote share in multiple states and this definitely seems to be inflated based on these results.

Also can't rule out Mawson as a One Nation win if they stay ahead of the Liberals on the 3CP — in either case this is a weird one with such a big drop in the Labor vote on what is otherwise a very good election for them.

MacKillop, in the rural southeast of the state, is probably the best chance of a win for One Nation at the moment but there isn't very much counted still. Again the 2CP matchup is wrong here — ONP will be either against LIB or IND, probably LIB. McBride's preferences are an unknown here though.

Liberals are going to be nearly entirely wiped out in metro Adelaide. Labor ahead in their two by-election gains Black, and Dunstan. Labor also ahead in Colton and Morphett on the beachside, Unley in the south, and Hartley in the East. Liberals only ahead in Bragg in the East.

One Nation also coming close in Chaffey in Eastern SA, but Liberals staying just ahead for now from Labor and Greens preferences

One of One Nation's strongest divisions so far is Narungga, where they have 37% primary — unfortunately the 2CP count atm is between Labor and Liberal which it won't be, will likely be ONP-LIB. Fraser Ellis preferenced Liberal higher than One Nation on the HTV, could be enough to hold off ONP here

I haven't looked too extensively at the results in the French municipal elections but to the extent that there are any national implications: Edouard Philippe won't drop out of the presidential election, but also LFI are not doing so well — they are generally behind PS/LÉ/PCF in the big cities

This is similar to the Infratest poll. I think if this holds it's such a clear lead for the SPD in preferred Minister-President that it could be enough to get SPD over the line — they don't need to push many Grüne or Linke voters their way to get ahead of the CDU in any case.

Well this is exciting news! I'd sort of given up hope that any more lost Doctor Who episodes would be found tbh. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Westminster is dangerously underprepared for a multi-party future. Responsible and farsighted leadership would mean recognising the Gorton and Denton by-election as a warning. Read our full comment here: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/gort...

Almost certainly will be a continuation of the CDU+Grüne coalition in Baden-Württemberg as expected but remains to be seen which if then will be the largest party. CDU had been leading in the polls for a while but Grüne was gaining during the campaign and they may well have pulled it off now

Love waking up super anxious and on edge for no reason, haha yes

I know it's not the most important thing but the fact that they just think it's just cool to have a makeshift situation room in Mar-a-Lago cause he prefers it to DC or something and that he wears that stupid fucking hat while he does this; it just all pisses me off so much

I do wonder if Trump thinks he can pull a Venezuela here and just do a leadership change, claim victory and pull out with not much really changing.

need to be clear that by keeping Starmer until May even though almost all of them know he's not up to it, Labour MPs are basically sacrificing hundreds of councillors and dozens of councils on the altar of their own inertia and ineptitude

I'm old enough to remember when the Tories winning the Uxbridge by-election by 700 votes or whatever it was clearly meant the government had to stop doing green stuff

@martamiori.bsky.social and I have been writing, since 2024, about why Labour's 'Reform' challenge and emphasis was based on a misunderstanding of Labour's vote. Here for anyone interested: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

I still think that Starmer will inevitably have some kind of change in approach to the Greens with regards to policy priorities and communications — but this is a bizarre way to react to the results and doesn't indicate Starmer really understands what's going on and isn't getting good advice still

3) Don't play dirty. The bizarre claims about the Greens in relation to drugs and sex workers were desperate, embarrassing, and harmful. It is no wonder they did not work and instead reflected badly on our party.

Denmark going a few months early to the polls, clearly for the govt to take advantage of their improved polling following the Greenland crisis How much of a bounce is it? Current POLITICO poll average A: 22% (+4) V: 11% (-1) M: 6% (+4) (Change since 10 Dec 25) www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...

Honestly whoever wins in G&D (hopefully not Matt Goodwin), none of the main campaigns have really covered themselves in glory. Obviously Reform has been the worst but just like some of the most desperate stuff coming from both Labour and the Greens and just makes the whole thing kinda depressing.

Having a by-election (or indeed any election) boil down to what is the correct tactical vote against a particular party — especially when that choice is unclear — is not good for voters and it's not good for democracy. It moves the conversation away from being about substance.

NEW: Virginia Dem legislators have passed their new 10-1 congressional map targeting 4 Republicans. Gov. Spanberger will likely sign it soon. It would take effect for 2026 if voters pass it in an April 21 referendum (litigation pending). Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/8560023...

With 265 respondents giving a VI this is not "distant third" it's within MoE, it's essentially a three way tie. In fact, even just taking the numbers at face value I don't think you could reasonably call a 7 point margin "distant".

We should try electing some kind of deliberative body that makes decisions about levying taxes.

Ironic indeed, though they could've done it if they hadn't wasted time with the stupid proposal to have the govt decide after the election whether it would be a three or four year term with a trade off over select committee power. Just do it properly or don't bother! www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

Labour minister falsely linked journalists to ‘pro-Kremlin’ network in emails to GCHQ

Good lay of the land as to where the Australian right is atm. I find it striking how similar the situation has become to the UK — most shockingly how many Coalition MPs are embracing not just anti-multicultural views but borderline ethnonationlist views www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlGH...

One of the most powerful, if not the most powerful, forces in public opinion is elite leadership. Partisans largely “follow the lead“ of their side’s elites. Arguing Dems shouldn’t try to shape opinion is arguing they should give up this power voluntarily. That’s dumb, not to mention morally vacuous

🔴 SCOOP: Wife of Starmer’s comms chief had direct knowledge of Labour Together’s investigation into journalists, documents seen by D4S show Revelation heaps more pressure on minister Josh Simons to explain why he paid a PR firm to dig dirt on reporters democracyforsale.substack.com/p/starmer-al...

Coalition to face messy by-election in Farrer with Sussan Ley retiring. Certain to be Liberal and National candidates, One Nation in the field with the liklehood of local Independents as well. antonygreen.com.au/will-the-coa...

Sussan Ley is resigning from parliament after losing the leadership. This will make for an interesting by-election in Farrer, in southwest NSW. Chance for an independent win here, also would expect One Nation to do well here, potential for it to be a very awkward start for Angus Taylor...

Convincing win for Angus Taylor in the Liberal leadership spill — my guess is it became clear that Ley wasn't going to win and beyond a core set of loyalists, enough Moderates thought it wouldn't be good for the party for it to be a close vote www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02...

Reform are our people but they're also habitual non-voters. Right....

One Nation within MoE of getting the most primary votes in this poll 😬 Would be symbolically huge if they ever actually did, though preferential voting, for now at least, is keeping them backing from really posing much challenge to the ALP in the same way Reform are in the UK

This is cool! This should be something that the government pushes on all media channels tomorrow. Will that happen? No. Sigh... www.theguardian.com/environment/...

I really can't stand her. It's not "America brain" to ask a perfectly reasonable question comparing British and American approaches to immigration enforcement. The substance of her answer is fine but for some reason she has to start out by being needlessly combative about nothing.

Beyond these very conveniently aligning himself with progressive critiques of Starmer of course, doesn't this make his position in cabinet untenable? I don't get it, what the hell is his response gonna be?

There is a meme outcome now where Sarwar resigns before Starmer

Keir Starmer is a lame duck now and this really cannot go until May, but any challenge has to be well planned so I get why there's not a rush from the potential challengers — they only get one shot at this, and they have to be confident that the leadership change would fix things

Didn't think today would be the day this morning lol. One of those days where I suppose febrile is indeed the right word.

Milifandom we never left!!

Have written about a week where the hypocrisy of much of the media was laid bare (and address mine). I also write about the truth Starmer cannot say: he appointed Mandelson to the court of Trump not in spite of the Epstein connection but in a sense, because of it. open.substack.com/pub/goodalla...