ABS statistics released today mean no change to state representation in the House at the next Federal election. Queensland falls short of gaining a 31st seat. The official determination will be made by the Electoral Commissioner in July. antonygreen.com.au/abs-populati...

The graph below with its non-existent parties caused much mirth. But the analysis in the article has a number of faults including assertions about strong flows of Green preferences to One Nation at the SA election. antonygreen.com.au/the-financia...

Haruspicy will abound next week as analysts inspect the entrails of this weekend's Nepean by-election trying to divine prospects for November's Victorian state election. And next week's Farrer by-election. #springst #nepean antonygreen.com.au/vic2026-nepe...

While writs have been returned for the SA election, the discovery of an unopened absent early ballot box from Port Pirie is causing problems. The votes match the roll mark-off, with 81 for Narungga where One Nation won by 58 votes. I've just posted on the subject. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-it-tu...

A big win for Labor at the SA election but a warning in the result detail. Swings to Labor in Liberal and Labor marginal seats, but big swings against Labor and to One Nation in Labor's safe seats. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-huge-...

he electoral version of "doing a Bradbury". Independent Lou Nicholson wins the South Australian seat of Finniss from fourth place after the distribution of preferences. #auspol antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-finni...

As counting winds up for the South Australian election, it looks like fourth placed Independent candidate Lou Nicholson will win the seat of Finniss. I explain why it happened in this post. But it won't be a win from the lowest primary vote. From antonygreen.com.au

Early voting going gangbusters for the SA election. With two days to go, numbers have passed total for 2022. This is first SA election where Early votes will be counted on the night. This post has the early and postal numbers plus detailed figures by district. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-track...

88% of Green preferences flowed to Labor at the 2025 election but not by "deals". Green voters reflexively preference Labor which shows up in seats like Fremantle where the Greens didn't recommend preference to Labor but the Independent still lost. antonygreen.com.au/do-greens-vo...

The how-to-votes are out for the SA election. Does it matter what they recommend? Check out my post from December with full detail on whether voters followed HTVs in 2022 including a link to detailed analysis of 2022 preference flows. antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...

A record 388 candidates to contest the lower House of Assembly at the South Australian election on 21 March. That's an average of 8.3 candidates per seat. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-close...

A trawl through the draft electoral boundaries for Tasmania released on Friday. antonygreen.com.au/fed26-redist...

s Farrer more traditionally a Liberal or National seat? I break down the last Liberal versus National contest in 2001 by local government area. But boundary changes since have added a big slice of National voting territory from the Riverina. antonygreen.com.au/farrer-a-lib...

My latest post is a big drop of new data. For the first time I publish two-party preferred preference data in so-called Non-Classic divisions, including high profile Independents. Data for the 2019, 2022 and 2025 elections. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-inde...

Coalition to face messy by-election in Farrer with Sussan Ley retiring. Certain to be Liberal and National candidates, One Nation in the field with the liklehood of local Independents as well. antonygreen.com.au/will-the-coa...

The success of local Independents, the contest in Kooyong and what it tells us about where national politics is going. antonygreen.com.au/the-success-...

One Nation finished as one of the top three candidates versus Labor and the Coalition in 25 seats last May. These seats with One Nation in the 3CP would be amongst the legitimate first targets for the party on current polling. antonygreen.com.au/one-nations-...

As in the past, the Nationals have increased their % of Coalition seats in opposition. The collapse in Liberal seats has delivered the Nationals more power, but can National policy priorities fight ONP and help Liberals win city seats? antonygreen.com.au/here-we-go-a...

The Coalition split and the re-emergence of One Nation. Lessons on what a 20% vote for One Nation looks like from the only other election to produce such a result, Queensland 1998. antonygreen.com.au/the-coalitio...

My wrap of the Federal election result in Queensland. It continues to be Labor's worst state, but as in 2022, not bad enough to deny Labor victory. Labor gained seven seats including two from the Greens and Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...

Do voters just copy how-to-vote preference recommendations? Clearly not if you look at available data. Here's some Christmas reading with my latest post on HTVs and preferences based on data from the 2022 South Australian election. antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...

More party name games. The VEC has approved a name change, Companions and Pets Party now known as End Mass Migration - Reform AU. Might be a crowded field by later in the year. Though there will be no benefit from group voting tickets if they are abolished as promised. #springst

I'm back to looking at the 2025 Federal election result, this time explaining the Victorian results. At the start of the campaign Victoria was where Labor could lose the election, but in the end the state delivered Labor a record result. More detail here. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...

If the Senate were increased to 14 Senators per state in 2028, as is rumoured, the next half-Senate election would be for 8 Senators with the quota reduced to 11.1%. That would be very tempting for One Nation.

Talk of One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce taking a NSW Senate seat from the Nationals is not correct. The NSW Coalition agreement reserves Senate spot 2 for the Nationals in 2028. It would be the third Liberal seat at risk. Unless the Coalition polls under 20%.

I had a few problems getting my SA Election blog post to re-publish but finally sorted it out. SA Electoral pendulum with colour coded seat maps is now working at new address antonygreen.com.au/electoral-pe...

I've updated my South Australian election pendulum article with colour coded maps of the electorates. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/

A post on the SA Liberal Leadership change today, including an electoral pendulum for the state election in March 2026, and some notes on retiring members and the more complex contests at the election. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/

Comments on the weekend's Hinchinbrook by-election. Strong support for Premier Crisafulli in his home town of Ingham, a major setback for Katter's Australian Party, a strong vote for One Nation, and why did Labor bother? antonygreen.com.au/comments-on-... #qldpol

An analysis of the changing pattern between 2010 and 2025 of Greens support across electoral divisions, and the continuing increase in the flows of Green preferences to Labor. antonygreen.com.au/comparing-gr... #auspol

The NSW Senate election saw weird distortions in the count when Mehreen Faruqi (GRN) passed quota. Suddenly 3,145 Coalition votes in her total became 7,549 in her surplus. Here's why plus an explainer on why Senate counting formulas need to change. antonygreen.com.au/time-to-chan...

In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...

Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.

Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...

Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025. antonygreen.com.au/background-o...

Background on the looming NSW Kiama state by-election following the resignation this morning of convicted MP Gareth Ward. antonygreen.com.au/nsw-state-di...

TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...

Four graphs that help explain Labor's landslide victory as well as the continuing decline in major party support. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-four...

antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-why-...

Some initial analysis of the 2025 WA election comparing the results by party with when Labor was elected to office in 2017. The result was worse for the Liberal Party in votes, and considerably worse in terms of seats. antonygreen.com.au/2025-western... #wavotes

A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups. antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...

I've updated my #prahran and #werribee commentary to look at how the outstanding postal votes might affect the result. In short they will confirm the Liberal victory in Prahran and favour Labor retaining its narrow lead in Werribee. #springst www.abc.net.au/news/electio...

#werribee - 0.6% of 2CP counted - ALP Predicted 2CP=44.6% -16.3% swing - results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst Preference count on that one small booth but there's the number.

#werribee 0.6% counted PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %) ALP 20.1 (-25.3) LIB 39.8 (+14.5) GRN 7.5 (+0.7) IND 9.2 (+3.3) OTH 23.5 (+6.8) Full results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst

Newspoll has WA Labor on 56% 2-party preferred, a swing of 14% against Labor. To put that in context, it cancels out the 14% swing to Labor in 2021. Labor's two-party vote in 2017 was 55.5% when Labor recorded its biggest victory in WA history. That was until 2021. #wapol

The WA election race is underway today with the issue of writs. So far 253 candidates lower house candidates have been named. Find all the names plus election background and profiles of every seat at my WA Election guide. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #wavotes

12 candidates for Werribee by-election. Bad ballot draw for Labor in position 11, Liberal candidate drew position 2. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...

Big surge in 2017 and 2021, largely due to preference deals by group voting tickets. The tickets have been abolished in 2025 with the move to state-wide election of the Legislative Council so there will be a much more proportional result. So far 218 Assembly and 73 Council candidates.

A tenth candidate joins the field for the Werribee by-election with the nomination of Aidan McLindon, newly elected Mayor of distant Whittlesea. McLindon's peripatetic party history adds colour to the field. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...

Seven of the 11 how-to-votes are now registered for the Prahran by-election. Ex-Labor MP Tony Lupton running as an Independent and swapping preferences with the Liberal candidate could re-shuffle the traditional preference flows. All the detail here www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #springst