Antony Green
@antonygreenelec.bsky.social
š¤ 10275
š„ 18
š 69
Australian Election Analyst
An analysis of the changing pattern between 2010 and 2025 of Greens support across electoral divisions, and the continuing increase in the flows of Green preferences to Labor.
antonygreen.com.au/comparing-gr...
#auspol
5 days ago
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The NSW Senate election saw weird distortions in the count when Mehreen Faruqi (GRN) passed quota. Suddenly 3,145 Coalition votes in her total became 7,549 in her surplus. Here's why plus an explainer on why Senate counting formulas need to change.
antonygreen.com.au/time-to-chan...
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Antony Green's Election Blog
Musings on Elections and Politics
https://antonygreen.com.au
9 days ago
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In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents.
antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...
16 days ago
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Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.
19 days ago
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Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party.
antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...
19 days ago
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Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025.
antonygreen.com.au/background-o...
22 days ago
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Background on the looming NSW Kiama state by-election following the resignation this morning of convicted MP Gareth Ward.
antonygreen.com.au/nsw-state-di...
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NSW State District of Kiama set for By-election
The resignation of former Independent MP Gareth Ward has set the stage for a by-election in his south coast seat of Kiama. Ward has first elected as Liberal member for Kiama in 2011 at the Coalitioā¦
https://antonygreen.com.au/nsw-state-district-of-kiama-set-for-by-election/
4 months ago
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TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at
antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...
4 months ago
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Four graphs that help explain Labor's landslide victory as well as the continuing decline in major party support.
antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-four...
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FED2025 ā Four Graphs on Laborās Landslide Victory
The āLā word hasnāt featured much in post-election coverage, but itās time to be clear about the result. The re-election of the Albanese government has been a landslide victā¦
https://antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-four-graphs-on-labors-landslide-victory/
6 months ago
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antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-why-...
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FED2025 ā Why One Nationās Senate victories show that the 2016 Senate electoral reforms were right
Depending on your point of view, the election of One Nation Senators to represent New South Wales and Western Australia is either vindication of Malcolm Turnbullās 2016 Senate electoral reforms, orā¦
https://antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-why-one-nations-senate-victories-prove-2016-senate-electoral-reforms-were-right/
6 months ago
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Some initial analysis of the 2025 WA election comparing the results by party with when Labor was elected to office in 2017. The result was worse for the Liberal Party in votes, and considerably worse in terms of seats.
antonygreen.com.au/2025-western...
#wavotes
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2025 Western Australia Election ā Lower House Results
This post will update over the next two weeks as counting for the 2025 Western Australian Legislative Assembly (lower house) election is finalised. Originally the post just covered changes in membeā¦
https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australia-election-lower-house-results/
8 months ago
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A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups.
antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...
9 months ago
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I've updated my
#prahran
and
#werribee
commentary to look at how the outstanding postal votes might affect the result. In short they will confirm the Liberal victory in Prahran and favour Labor retaining its narrow lead in Werribee.
#springst
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
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Commentary - Prahran/Werribee by-election
Werribee by-election 2025 Commentary
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/werribee-by-election-2025/commentary
10 months ago
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#werribee
- 0.6% of 2CP counted - ALP Predicted 2CP=44.6% -16.3% swing - results at
shorturl.at/EFSjz
#springst
Preference count on that one small booth but there's the number.
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Results - Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025 Results
https://shorturl.at/EFSjz
10 months ago
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44
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#werribee
0.6% counted PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %) ALP 20.1 (-25.3) LIB 39.8 (+14.5) GRN 7.5 (+0.7) IND 9.2 (+3.3) OTH 23.5 (+6.8) Full results at
shorturl.at/EFSjz
#springst
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Results - Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025 Results
https://shorturl.at/EFSjz
10 months ago
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Newspoll has WA Labor on 56% 2-party preferred, a swing of 14% against Labor. To put that in context, it cancels out the 14% swing to Labor in 2021. Labor's two-party vote in 2017 was 55.5% when Labor recorded its biggest victory in WA history. That was until 2021.
#wapol
10 months ago
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The WA election race is underway today with the issue of writs. So far 253 candidates lower house candidates have been named. Find all the names plus election background and profiles of every seat at my WA Election guide.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
#wavotes
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Election Preview
Western Australia Election Preview 2025
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2025/guide/preview
10 months ago
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12 candidates for Werribee by-election. Bad ballot draw for Labor in position 11, Liberal candidate drew position 2.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
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Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/werribee-by-election-2025
10 months ago
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Big surge in 2017 and 2021, largely due to preference deals by group voting tickets. The tickets have been abolished in 2025 with the move to state-wide election of the Legislative Council so there will be a much more proportional result. So far 218 Assembly and 73 Council candidates.
10 months ago
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A tenth candidate joins the field for the Werribee by-election with the nomination of Aidan McLindon, newly elected Mayor of distant Whittlesea. McLindon's peripatetic party history adds colour to the field.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
10 months ago
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Seven of the 11 how-to-votes are now registered for the Prahran by-election. Ex-Labor MP Tony Lupton running as an Independent and swapping preferences with the Liberal candidate could re-shuffle the traditional preference flows. All the detail here
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
#springst
10 months ago
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Green prospects of winning the Prahran by-election just got more complicated with the Liberal Party and Independent Tony Lupton (ex-Labor MP) swapping preference recommendations. There is no Labor candidate. Background on the by-election here
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
10 months ago
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11 candidates nominated for the Prahran by-election to be held on 8 February. Background here with links to Werribee by-election where nominations are still open.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
#springst
10 months ago
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My
#WAVotes2025
election guide has just been launched. The usual features, a preview, full profiles of every seat, indexes by candidate, electorate name and margin. Legislative Council to be added in a day or two.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
10 months ago
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Started the year virtuously. Train to Parramatta, then rode up the new tram cycle way to Carlingford, bike selfie at my old school then rode back to Newtown. 46km all up. Tramway is very impressive.
11 months ago
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A few notes of caution on the AEC's estimated new margins for redistributed seats, especially where Independents are involved. In not making assumptions on new boundary Independent support, some of its estimates look odd.
antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plet...
#auspol
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FED25 ā A Plethora of Estimated Margins and Problems with the AEC Version
In a pre-Christmas treat for election nerds, the Australian Electoral Commission is about to publish its estimated seat margins for next yearās Federal election. The 2025 Federal election will be fā¦
https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plethora-of-estimated-margins-and-problems-with-the-aec-version/
11 months ago
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2024 NT Election saw a record low turnout at 68.5%. Despite a record 153,248 electors on the roll, an increase of 8.6% or 12,123 since 2020, there were fewer votes cast in 2024, down 932 to 104,901. Results summary here
antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analy...
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NT2024 ā Analysis of the Northern Territory Election
Eight years and two terms after Labor defeated the Giles government and reduced the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party to just two seats, the tables were turned on 24 August this year. The Laā¦
https://antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analysis-of-the-northern-territory-election/
11 months ago
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A statistical wrap of the 2024 Northern Territory election. A landslide victory for the CLP with Labor winning no seats in greater Darwin. But a record low turnout at 68.5%, fewer votes taken in 2024 despite record enrolment.
#ntvotes
#auspol
antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analy...
11 months ago
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Will Australia have its first national February election? And what about the WA Election Date? All the details here.
antonygreen.com.au/will-austral...
#auspol
11 months ago
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With the 2025 Federal election approaching, I've published my best estimates of margins for all seats post redistribution, along with a new and augmented electoral pendulum for the election.
#auspol
antonygreen.com.au/fed25-electi...
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FED25 Election ā New Seat Margins and Electoral Pendulum
At the 2025 Federal election, more than half of seats in the House of Representatives will be contested on new electoral boundaries. In this post I summarise the state of play going into the electiā¦
https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-election-new-seat-margins-and-electoral-pendulums/
12 months ago
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Black by-election update. Further counting of Early votes has favoured Labor increasing the Labor 2-party vote to 60.8%, swing 13.8%. Postal counting tomorrow likely to eat into the Labor lead.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
#saparli
about 1 year ago
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#black
- 18.5% of 2CP counted - LIB Predicted 2CP=39.6% -13.2% swing. Labor takes 2nd seat off opposition this term at a by-election - results at
tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue
#saparli
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Black by-election 2024 Results
Black by-election 2024 Results
https://tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue
about 1 year ago
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#black
- 8% of 2CP counted - LIB Predicted 2CP=38.9% -13.9% swing - results at
tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue
#saparli
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Black by-election 2024 Results
Black by-election 2024 Results
https://tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue
about 1 year ago
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#black
Now a 2nd polling places, 2 of 9 counting centres reported PartyCode, First pref %, (matched PP change in %) ALP 47.1 (+10.1) LIB 32.3 (-18.9) GRN 14.3 (+2.4) AFP 6.3 (+6.3) Full results at
tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue
#saparli
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Black by-election 2024 Results
Black by-election 2024 Results
https://tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue
about 1 year ago
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#black
1 of 9 counting centres reported PartyCode, First pref %, (matched PP change in %) ALP 40.6 (+6.0) LIB 35.0 (-16.4) GRN 18.9 (+4.9) AFP 5.5 (+5.5) Full results at
tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue
#saparli
about 1 year ago
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I'm covering the
#black
by-election tonight. About half an hour before we get any figures but my results page is ready and waiting for the figures when they arrive. Results at
tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue
#saparli
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Black by-election 2024 Results
Black by-election 2024 Results
https://tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue
about 1 year ago
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Some initial analysis of the Queensland election result, including a document setting out the changes by region and two-party preferred swings by electorate.
antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-init...
about 1 year ago
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Voters in the southern Adelaide seat of Black go to the polls on Saturday in the Black state by-election. Here's a link to my backgrounder on the by-election. I'll be covering the results at that Saturday night and next week.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
about 1 year ago
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Analysis of the new Federal electoral boundaries for NSW that were finalised this morning, confirming the abolition of the Independent seat of North Sydney.
antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal...
about 1 year ago
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