Antony Green
@antonygreenelec.bsky.social
📤 10575
📥 18
📝 89
Australian Election Analyst
A record 388 candidates to contest the lower House of Assembly at the South Australian election on 21 March. That's an average of 8.3 candidates per seat.
antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-close...
5 days ago
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A trawl through the draft electoral boundaries for Tasmania released on Friday.
antonygreen.com.au/fed26-redist...
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FED26 Redistribution – Tasmania Draft Boundaries
Last Friday the Australian Electoral Commission issued draft electoral boundaries for Tasmania. It was the first of this year’s round of federal redistributions. Draft boundaries for the ACT …
https://antonygreen.com.au/fed26-redistribution-tasmania-draft-boundaries/
5 days ago
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s Farrer more traditionally a Liberal or National seat? I break down the last Liberal versus National contest in 2001 by local government area. But boundary changes since have added a big slice of National voting territory from the Riverina.
antonygreen.com.au/farrer-a-lib...
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Farrer – a Liberal or National Seat?
In a previous post published on Friday, I went through a detailed history of the Farrer electorate. In short, the seat was created in 1949. Until 1983 the seat was based on the southern NSW rural c…
https://antonygreen.com.au/farrer-a-liberal-or-national-seat/
20 days ago
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My latest post is a big drop of new data. For the first time I publish two-party preferred preference data in so-called Non-Classic divisions, including high profile Independents. Data for the 2019, 2022 and 2025 elections.
antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-inde...
21 days ago
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Coalition to face messy by-election in Farrer with Sussan Ley retiring. Certain to be Liberal and National candidates, One Nation in the field with the liklehood of local Independents as well.
antonygreen.com.au/will-the-coa...
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The Coalition to face a messy by-election in Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer
After losing the Liberal leadership this morning, Sussan Ley has announced she will resign as member for her southern NSW seat of Farrer. Ley has held the seat since 2001 when she took it from the …
https://antonygreen.com.au/will-the-coalition-face-messy-by-election-in-sussan-leys-seat-of-farrer/
23 days ago
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The success of local Independents, the contest in Kooyong and what it tells us about where national politics is going.
antonygreen.com.au/the-success-...
26 days ago
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One Nation finished as one of the top three candidates versus Labor and the Coalition in 25 seats last May. These seats with One Nation in the 3CP would be amongst the legitimate first targets for the party on current polling.
antonygreen.com.au/one-nations-...
about 1 month ago
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As in the past, the Nationals have increased their % of Coalition seats in opposition. The collapse in Liberal seats has delivered the Nationals more power, but can National policy priorities fight ONP and help Liberals win city seats?
antonygreen.com.au/here-we-go-a...
about 1 month ago
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The Coalition split and the re-emergence of One Nation. Lessons on what a 20% vote for One Nation looks like from the only other election to produce such a result, Queensland 1998.
antonygreen.com.au/the-coalitio...
about 2 months ago
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My wrap of the Federal election result in Queensland. It continues to be Labor's worst state, but as in 2022, not bad enough to deny Labor victory. Labor gained seven seats including two from the Greens and Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson.
antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...
about 2 months ago
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Do voters just copy how-to-vote preference recommendations? Clearly not if you look at available data. Here's some Christmas reading with my latest post on HTVs and preferences based on data from the 2022 South Australian election.
antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...
2 months ago
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More party name games. The VEC has approved a name change, Companions and Pets Party now known as End Mass Migration - Reform AU. Might be a crowded field by later in the year. Though there will be no benefit from group voting tickets if they are abolished as promised.
#springst
3 months ago
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I'm back to looking at the 2025 Federal election result, this time explaining the Victorian results. At the start of the campaign Victoria was where Labor could lose the election, but in the end the state delivered Labor a record result. More detail here.
antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...
3 months ago
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If the Senate were increased to 14 Senators per state in 2028, as is rumoured, the next half-Senate election would be for 8 Senators with the quota reduced to 11.1%. That would be very tempting for One Nation.
3 months ago
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Talk of One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce taking a NSW Senate seat from the Nationals is not correct. The NSW Coalition agreement reserves Senate spot 2 for the Nationals in 2028. It would be the third Liberal seat at risk. Unless the Coalition polls under 20%.
3 months ago
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I had a few problems getting my SA Election blog post to re-publish but finally sorted it out. SA Electoral pendulum with colour coded seat maps is now working at new address
antonygreen.com.au/electoral-pe...
3 months ago
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I've updated my South Australian election pendulum article with colour coded maps of the electorates.
antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/
3 months ago
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A post on the SA Liberal Leadership change today, including an electoral pendulum for the state election in March 2026, and some notes on retiring members and the more complex contests at the election.
antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/
3 months ago
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Comments on the weekend's Hinchinbrook by-election. Strong support for Premier Crisafulli in his home town of Ingham, a major setback for Katter's Australian Party, a strong vote for One Nation, and why did Labor bother?
antonygreen.com.au/comments-on-...
#qldpol
3 months ago
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An analysis of the changing pattern between 2010 and 2025 of Greens support across electoral divisions, and the continuing increase in the flows of Green preferences to Labor.
antonygreen.com.au/comparing-gr...
#auspol
4 months ago
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The NSW Senate election saw weird distortions in the count when Mehreen Faruqi (GRN) passed quota. Suddenly 3,145 Coalition votes in her total became 7,549 in her surplus. Here's why plus an explainer on why Senate counting formulas need to change.
antonygreen.com.au/time-to-chan...
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Antony Green's Election Blog
Musings on Elections and Politics
https://antonygreen.com.au
4 months ago
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In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents.
antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...
4 months ago
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Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.
4 months ago
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Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party.
antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...
4 months ago
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Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025.
antonygreen.com.au/background-o...
4 months ago
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Background on the looming NSW Kiama state by-election following the resignation this morning of convicted MP Gareth Ward.
antonygreen.com.au/nsw-state-di...
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NSW State District of Kiama set for By-election
The resignation of former Independent MP Gareth Ward has set the stage for a by-election in his south coast seat of Kiama. Ward has first elected as Liberal member for Kiama in 2011 at the Coalitio…
https://antonygreen.com.au/nsw-state-district-of-kiama-set-for-by-election/
7 months ago
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TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at
antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...
7 months ago
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Four graphs that help explain Labor's landslide victory as well as the continuing decline in major party support.
antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-four...
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FED2025 – Four Graphs on Labor’s Landslide Victory
The ‘L’ word hasn’t featured much in post-election coverage, but it’s time to be clear about the result. The re-election of the Albanese government has been a landslide vict…
https://antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-four-graphs-on-labors-landslide-victory/
9 months ago
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antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-why-...
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FED2025 – Why One Nation’s Senate victories show that the 2016 Senate electoral reforms were right
Depending on your point of view, the election of One Nation Senators to represent New South Wales and Western Australia is either vindication of Malcolm Turnbull’s 2016 Senate electoral reforms, or…
https://antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-why-one-nations-senate-victories-prove-2016-senate-electoral-reforms-were-right/
9 months ago
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Some initial analysis of the 2025 WA election comparing the results by party with when Labor was elected to office in 2017. The result was worse for the Liberal Party in votes, and considerably worse in terms of seats.
antonygreen.com.au/2025-western...
#wavotes
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2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results
This post will update over the next two weeks as counting for the 2025 Western Australian Legislative Assembly (lower house) election is finalised. Originally the post just covered changes in membe…
https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-western-australia-election-lower-house-results/
12 months ago
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A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups.
antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...
about 1 year ago
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I've updated my
#prahran
and
#werribee
commentary to look at how the outstanding postal votes might affect the result. In short they will confirm the Liberal victory in Prahran and favour Labor retaining its narrow lead in Werribee.
#springst
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
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Commentary - Prahran/Werribee by-election
Werribee by-election 2025 Commentary
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/werribee-by-election-2025/commentary
about 1 year ago
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#werribee
- 0.6% of 2CP counted - ALP Predicted 2CP=44.6% -16.3% swing - results at
shorturl.at/EFSjz
#springst
Preference count on that one small booth but there's the number.
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Results - Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025 Results
https://shorturl.at/EFSjz
about 1 year ago
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#werribee
0.6% counted PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %) ALP 20.1 (-25.3) LIB 39.8 (+14.5) GRN 7.5 (+0.7) IND 9.2 (+3.3) OTH 23.5 (+6.8) Full results at
shorturl.at/EFSjz
#springst
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Results - Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025 Results
https://shorturl.at/EFSjz
about 1 year ago
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Newspoll has WA Labor on 56% 2-party preferred, a swing of 14% against Labor. To put that in context, it cancels out the 14% swing to Labor in 2021. Labor's two-party vote in 2017 was 55.5% when Labor recorded its biggest victory in WA history. That was until 2021.
#wapol
about 1 year ago
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The WA election race is underway today with the issue of writs. So far 253 candidates lower house candidates have been named. Find all the names plus election background and profiles of every seat at my WA Election guide.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
#wavotes
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Election Preview
Western Australia Election Preview 2025
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2025/guide/preview
about 1 year ago
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12 candidates for Werribee by-election. Bad ballot draw for Labor in position 11, Liberal candidate drew position 2.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
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Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/werribee-by-election-2025
about 1 year ago
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Big surge in 2017 and 2021, largely due to preference deals by group voting tickets. The tickets have been abolished in 2025 with the move to state-wide election of the Legislative Council so there will be a much more proportional result. So far 218 Assembly and 73 Council candidates.
about 1 year ago
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A tenth candidate joins the field for the Werribee by-election with the nomination of Aidan McLindon, newly elected Mayor of distant Whittlesea. McLindon's peripatetic party history adds colour to the field.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
about 1 year ago
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Seven of the 11 how-to-votes are now registered for the Prahran by-election. Ex-Labor MP Tony Lupton running as an Independent and swapping preferences with the Liberal candidate could re-shuffle the traditional preference flows. All the detail here
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
#springst
about 1 year ago
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Green prospects of winning the Prahran by-election just got more complicated with the Liberal Party and Independent Tony Lupton (ex-Labor MP) swapping preference recommendations. There is no Labor candidate. Background on the by-election here
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
about 1 year ago
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11 candidates nominated for the Prahran by-election to be held on 8 February. Background here with links to Werribee by-election where nominations are still open.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
#springst
about 1 year ago
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My
#WAVotes2025
election guide has just been launched. The usual features, a preview, full profiles of every seat, indexes by candidate, electorate name and margin. Legislative Council to be added in a day or two.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
about 1 year ago
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Started the year virtuously. Train to Parramatta, then rode up the new tram cycle way to Carlingford, bike selfie at my old school then rode back to Newtown. 46km all up. Tramway is very impressive.
about 1 year ago
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A few notes of caution on the AEC's estimated new margins for redistributed seats, especially where Independents are involved. In not making assumptions on new boundary Independent support, some of its estimates look odd.
antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plet...
#auspol
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FED25 – A Plethora of Estimated Margins and Problems with the AEC Version
In a pre-Christmas treat for election nerds, the Australian Electoral Commission is about to publish its estimated seat margins for next year’s Federal election. The 2025 Federal election will be f…
https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plethora-of-estimated-margins-and-problems-with-the-aec-version/
about 1 year ago
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2024 NT Election saw a record low turnout at 68.5%. Despite a record 153,248 electors on the roll, an increase of 8.6% or 12,123 since 2020, there were fewer votes cast in 2024, down 932 to 104,901. Results summary here
antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analy...
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NT2024 – Analysis of the Northern Territory Election
Eight years and two terms after Labor defeated the Giles government and reduced the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party to just two seats, the tables were turned on 24 August this year. The La…
https://antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analysis-of-the-northern-territory-election/
about 1 year ago
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A statistical wrap of the 2024 Northern Territory election. A landslide victory for the CLP with Labor winning no seats in greater Darwin. But a record low turnout at 68.5%, fewer votes taken in 2024 despite record enrolment.
#ntvotes
#auspol
antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analy...
about 1 year ago
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Will Australia have its first national February election? And what about the WA Election Date? All the details here.
antonygreen.com.au/will-austral...
#auspol
about 1 year ago
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With the 2025 Federal election approaching, I've published my best estimates of margins for all seats post redistribution, along with a new and augmented electoral pendulum for the election.
#auspol
antonygreen.com.au/fed25-electi...
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FED25 Election – New Seat Margins and Electoral Pendulum
At the 2025 Federal election, more than half of seats in the House of Representatives will be contested on new electoral boundaries. In this post I summarise the state of play going into the electi…
https://antonygreen.com.au/fed25-election-new-seat-margins-and-electoral-pendulums/
over 1 year ago
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Black by-election update. Further counting of Early votes has favoured Labor increasing the Labor 2-party vote to 60.8%, swing 13.8%. Postal counting tomorrow likely to eat into the Labor lead.
www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
#saparli
over 1 year ago
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