Who’d buy a ‘toned down’ version of America’s F-47? Hear what @gregbagwell.bsky.social has to say about it here on @forcesnews.com 👇 youtu.be/Pr_QJir48kY?...

This has all the hallmarks of a Russian false flag operation.

In 2001, NATO nations responded to a US call for an Article V response after an attack on US soil. There was no debate about where the attack took place, where the threat came from or who paid for what, just an agreement that an attack on one was an attack on all.

As the frenzy around NATO spending dominates the defence debate, it’s worth noting whose budget has been reducing👇🇺🇸. And when you factor in how much US spending is outside the NATO area a very different picture emerges. We all need to spend more, but let’s be measured about it.

“We're also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.” A🧵on what this means if true 1/6. www.defense.gov/News/Speeche...

My over-riding takeaway from this opening “pitch” is if Europe picks up the bill, then Europe gets a vote on the terms, and that vote should be to uphold international law, not appease a US President intent on getting “his” money back & peace on Russian terms. www.defense.gov/News/Speeche...

If you were charged with saving Billions of dollars a day from the US federal budget, would you target the one department that barely makes the “Other” category at a world trailing 0.24% of GDP? It’s not about the money is it?

There will need to be boots on the ground to keep the peace, but there will also need to be eyes in the sky to watch over it.

As the UK prepares its most challenging defence review in a generation. Here is an easy to read and digest summary of the current issues it faces in the air and space domains. And it’s free! airspacepower.com/wp-content/u...

If and when a ceasefire starts, a sizeable peace keeping force may be inevitable and is the best chance of ensuring that Russia observes it. Using NATO nation’s troops adds complexity, but who else will step up?

Another great report on drones in warfare, full of useful insights, from @rikefranke.bsky.social

Commercial off the shelf drones have some physical limitations that differentiate them from more conventional forms of attack. The primary one is their speed. A commercial drone flies at a maximum speed of around 30m/s.

As the New Year beckons and before people start talking about Fantasy Defence, here’s a quick reminder of the terms of reference for the UK defence review team👇. It is supposed to be fiscally constrained within the 2.5% envelope: www.gov.uk/government/p...

The primary cause of this accident is more likely to be the damage caused by the missile strike. The erratic flight profile after that was probably more down to the loss of primary control as a result of that damage, rather than any jamming - although that may yet prove to be a contributory factor.

Russia has had to deploy more air defence systems and employ GPS jamming more widely across Russia to counter Ukrainian UAV attacks. But in doing so without effective control or co-ordination it has endangered civil air traffic, as the shoot down two days ago demonstrated. This is a consequence.

The Russian system that is rumoured to be the one responsible for the Azerbaijan Airlines shoot down is the Pantsir S1 (NATO name SA-22 Greyhound), a short range system with missiles and guns used to intercept aircraft and drones. It’s capable of operating independently. 🧵1/4

3 questions for Russia to answer 1. Were civil authorities aware of active air defence systems and GPS jamming around Grozny? 2. What safety measures did they have in place for civil aircraft to operate? 3. Why was the aircraft diverted so far away with an emergency? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

1/ God Trump is stupid It's taken me a long time but I've just finished wading through his press conference today when he answered questions on any subject, a little over a month before he returns to the White House. I edited all #Ukraine stuff into a 4'30" video on Xitter, but I'll show clips here

Very pleased to partner with the New Scientist to promote the importance of Air & Space Power to the UK: “The power above us, why aerospace is a vital National asset”. www.businessandindustry.co.uk/aerospace/th...

"The U.S. is pouring billions of dollars into protecting its Pacific stronghold of Guam from a Chinese onslaught. But the technical challenges are considerable, China’s weapons are growing more advanced." @reuters.com www.reuters.com/graphics/USA...

🇺🇦 The Ukrainian Droid TW 12.7 robotic recon-strike complex is now officially in service, per the Ministry of Defense. Armed with a 12.7mm machine gun, it operates remotely via tablet & uses digital communication—proven reliable in combat tests.

There's a feeling of helplessness in the EU as Jan. 20 approaches. That's nonsense. The EU controls the single biggest exit point for Russian oil - the Baltic - and Greek ships are 25% of capacity. The EU has a lot of power, which gives it leverage over how war in Ukraine ends...

How could Donald Trump apply more pressure on Putin to capitulate in Ukraine, especially now after the loss of any footprint in Syria? There are basically 5 areas he can focus on: sanctions, warrants, military aid, alliances & territory. Taking each in turn:

We blinked in 2013, and we have blinked a few times since, not least in Ukraine. Whilst much should be made of the mistakes we have made in past interventions - we should be just as critical of the interventions we didn’t.

“Following a pattern of undersea cable damage across European waters in the last year, with the most recent disruptions happening just weeks ago, top NATO officials have begun envisioning a capability that would allow the alliance to have permanent eyes above and under the waterline.”

I gave this opinion piece short shrift on X. So, let me be slightly more gentle in this much nicer place and highlight why these assertions are unfounded.

About time an official said it. “Russia’s acts of sabotage against western targets may eventually prompt Nato to consider invoking the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, the head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service has warned” www.theguardian.com/world/2024/n...

Approximate flight routes of Russian missiles and drones during today's massive attack. As of now, 523,000 subscribers in Lviv region and 215,000 in Volyn are also without electricity due to morning strikes, – regional authorities confirm.

Investigators suspect a Chinese bulk carrier deliberately severed two critical data cables last week as its anchor was dragged along the Baltic seabed for over 100 miles. Their probe now centers on whether the captain of the ship was induced by Russian intelligence. www.wsj.com/world/europe...

Appalling. Alex Vindman is one of the bravest & most decent people I have met. We are with you Alex.

Elon Musk either failed his pilot selection or he just doesn’t like jet pilots. But, instead of drooling over Chinese drone stunt displays, maybe he should expend a bit more energy on fixing his two dimensional problem at taxy speeds.

Oi Elon, I’ve got 4000+ hours and I never landed in a tree.

To be fair to Labour (because I still believe they want to reset Defence for the better), the previous Government only pledged to reach 2.5% by 2030 - so they may yet exceed that target/timeline - depending on the outcome of the major ongoing review. But, yes, 3% would be better!

This is a great read. Its chapter on the UK’s decline is painfully true.

AI Generated vs Real Life

My piece on Tulsi Gabbard and the storm that is headed the way of America's Intelligence Community. The FBI will be first in line, but the whole alphabet soup—ODNI, CIA, NSA, CISA—will feel the shock. www.economist.com/united-state...

This reporting of the lack of a negative as a positive is misleading - it’s a well worn trick used by vested interests to try and corner governments prior to a defence review. The truth is that with finances extremely tight almost everything is on the table and almost nothing off it.

A Boeing 737, operated for DHL by Swiftair from Leipzig, crashed on approach into Vilnius, Lithuania - my inner Tom Clancy antenna are twitching… www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

I remember the good old days when Russia committed its own atrocities before it started contracting its evil out.

A good summary of the factors surrounding the UK’s path to Defence spending at 2.5% of GDP. Not forgetting of course, it’s already at 2.33% so not so much jam tomorrow. lordslibrary.parliament.uk/uk-defence-s... [P.S Yes, I don’t know why there is an F15 on the front cover either]

The politicisation of military promotions achieves a few things - generals who tell you what you want to hear not what you need to know, and who care more about their political masters and their own progression than their soldiers or their country - both lead very quickly to a far weaker military.

⚡️🇺🇦Ukrainian Defense Forces hit a 🇷🇺Russian S-400 air defense system radar station in the Kursk region at night, the General Staff of Ukraine reports.

There is a huge lesson here in how we react to aggression. The slow drip response has allowed Putin to ratchet up his rhetoric and play for time or discord. Had we gone in hard and more determined from the outset we would have seized the initiative and removed Putin’s room for his mind games.

Yes, it is a striking cover. The threat of war in Europe feels disturbingly real. Timothy Snyder's book The Road to Unfreedom makes a powerful observation: "Europe has always lived in the shadow of its eastern neighbor". 👇

NEW: The Houthis have become a major strategic threat with ties to multiple US adversaries. The US has sought to “avoid escalation” in response to Houthi actions since Oct 2023 with half-measures that have failed to materially degrade Houthi military capabilities. (🧵1/8)

'In 2022, as he was buying Twitter, [Musk's] posts about free speech surged. This was followed by a leap in 2023 and 2024 in talk of immigration, border control, the integrity of elections and the “woke mind virus”.' economist.com/briefing/202...

Putin dismisses the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadows inside Russia as militarily ineffective while commenting on the "test" launch of a Russian IRBM at Dnipro. This follows a well-established pattern in this war, which I'll summarize below. kremlin.ru/events/presi...

There are quite a few UK defence commentators losing it over the recently announced defence “cuts”, and it’s overwhelmingly from the maritime side. There is something visceral about the UK maritime psyche, one that often seems founded on a sense of entitlement and history more than reality. 🧵1/n

It is often said that Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine is some kind of "Sudetenland" moment and a possible "peace" agreement will be some kind of "Munich" "peace in our time" moment. I strongly disagree.

The UK still plans to sail its Carrier Group to the Indo Pacific next year. www.gov.uk/government/n... , but the diplomatic context is about to get a little bit trickier than when it was conceived. It will be interesting to see if any US support will be needed and what that means for messaging.